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Rubio's Hispanic draw for Romney would be mixed, analysts and pollsters say

Rising Republican star though he may be, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's national appeal may be tepid among the Hispanic voters both parties are so desperately courting this election year.

To win the presidential election, Republicans would like to repeat the success of former President George W. Bush, who garnered 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004. Democrats will need to capture a larger share by at least matching the 67 percent President Obama received in 2008.

In a year when the economy and unemployment dominate the national debate, it’s unlikely that merely having a Latino as a vice-presidential running mate is going to be enough to sway most of the country’s 12 million registered Hispanic voters, say political experts on the Hispanic vote.

"We don't have any evidence that [Rubio] would provide any significant boost to Romney if he were on the ticket," said Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions, which in January conducted a widely cited poll of Hispanic voters for Univision and other media outlets. Story here

-- Erika Bolstad

He noted the survey found Rubio did best in Florida with first- and second-generation Cuban-Americans, but was less popular with Hispanic voters with roots in Puerto Rico, Colombia and Mexico. Voters of Mexican descent are critical because they represent a significant majority of U.S. Hispanic voters.

"He's not going to be the type of candidate who can go out and resonate with the Mexican-American audiences in the Southwest," Barreto said.

Outside of Florida, the Cuban-American senator may be gaining popularity but is still unfamiliar to most.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found that voters in the swing states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania were far more likely to support their hometown politicians as vice presidential contenders. In Florida, they support Rubio. In Ohio, it's Republican Sen. Rob Portman. And in Pennsylvania, voters like neighboring New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie the most as a possible VP.

It's not clear how much Rubio helps Romney in Florida, either. A mid-April poll conducted by Public Policy Polling of North Carolina found that with Rubio on the ticket, Romney drops in Florida from 45 percent to 43 percent. Obama stays at 50 percent, PPP pollster Tom Jensen wrote. Among Hispanics in Florida, the pollsters found Obama leads 52 to 37 percent with Hispanics. With Rubio on the ticket, Obama still leads 52 to 37 with Hispanics.

Hispanics are not a monolithic voting bloc, said Jill Hanauer, CEO and president of the Colorado-based Project New America, which worked with PPP on the poll. Their findings: Republicans won't be able to make up ground with Latino voters simply by nominating a Hispanic vice presidential candidate

They looked at how well a Romney-Rubio ticket would do in Florida, how Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval did with Romney on the ticket in Nevada, and what the outcome would be if they paired Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico with Romney. It had negligible effect, Hanauer said. "Hispanic voters are still going to overwhelmingly vote for President Obama," she said.

Whether Romney's potential vice presidential running mates are likely to appeal to Hispanic voters or not, they will get a more thorough vetting this year than in 2008, thanks to Sen. John McCain's pick of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

The Florida Democratic Party has been salivating over the possibility of such a high-profile target as Rubio, releasing daily rundowns of media reports about the Florida senator. They include rehashing Rubio's personal use of the Republican Party of Florida's credit card, campaign finance irregularities, and his friendship with U.S. Rep. Florida David Rivera, R-Fla.

The Miami-Dade state attorney’s office and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement recently closed an 18-month investigation into Rivera’s campaign and personal finances without filing charges. Rivera, his campaign said, was “exonerated.” He is still under investigation by the FBI and IRS over his finances.

Meanwhile, Rubio has been on an aggressive public relations push, giving speeches on foreign affairs and appearing on television regularly. He plans to release his own memoir June 19. It's the same date a Washington Post reporter publishes a separate biography.

Rubio, who is among several politicians mentioned as possible vice presidential nominees, has repeatedly said he won't talk about the job. That's up to Romney, he said. But he may have had a good understanding of what he could bring to the ticket as one of Romney's potential vice presidential running mates. "Presidential campaigns are won by the presidential nominee," he said in a recent interview.

The attention from the vice presidential selection process has made Rubio more of a national figure positioned to use his popularity, fundraising skills and high profile to help elect Romney. He says he plans to do just that this election year, especially when it comes to reaching out to Hispanic voters. He'll appear Sunday on Fox News, where he's billed as a "top surrogate" for Romney.

Rubio is "someone we want to use as much as possible," said Alexandra Franceschi of the Republican National Committee, and not just because he could appeal to potential Hispanic voters.

"He's a very effective speaker, he's incredibly charismatic and thoughtful," she said. "And his personal narrative really plays into why so many Hispanics have come to this country -- to secure the American Dream. That's his appeal to a broad range of Americans, not just Hispanics."

Rubio recently has previewed pieces of an immigration reform package in part to allay criticism of the Republican Party's vitriolic language on the subject. Like the DREAM Act supported by many Democrats and President Obama, Rubio's proposal would allow young people who came to the U.S. illegally with their parents as children to stay in this country. Unlike the DREAM Act, it would not provide a direct path to citizenship.

Although President Barack Obama also has failed to act on his 2008 campaign promise of comprehensive immigration reform, those active in Hispanic politics say the rhetoric on immigration during the Republican presidential primaries was more disheartening.

Hispanic voters do not consider immigration their most pressing concern -- most polls show that Latino voters are most interested in jobs and education. But by refusing to even consider the DREAM Act, Republicans have said they don't value the young Hispanic people it would cover, said Fernando Romero, who heads up the Hispanics in Politics, a nonpartisan political organization in Nevada.

"The DREAM Act involves a crop of just really good children, a crop most parents would want," he said. "It's a symbol, at least for many of us, it symbolizes the best of the best. And yet we have a party that is not accepting that. Until they do, we're not going to buy into many of the things they have to offer."

Some disagree, including Clarissa Martínez de Castro, director of immigration for the National Council of La Raza, a civil rights organization. Rubio's willingness to work on immigration may help mend fences with some, even if Hispanics fundamentally disagree with him on other issues that are important to their community. Because its approach to the DREAM Act reflects how the Republican Party feels about the Hispanic community as a whole, if Rubio can successfully repair that, she said, he might make a difference in attracting voters to the GOP.

"Immigration is still a very powerful issue," she said. "In the context of Rubio in particular, it was very much appreciated when he started calling for a toning down of the issue. It's always a good thing when you have elected officials doing that, in particular in the Republican party in calling his own colleagues to do so."

Don't count on it, said Romero, who thinks Republicans may already have lost the battle for Hispanic voters this fall.

"Things have been said, things have been done -- things are being said still," he said. "It's surprising because at a time Republicans could have brought on board many, many Hispanics, they didn't. And they didn't care. It's not like they didn't know what they're doing. They just didn't care




Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/05/04/2783923/would-sen-marco-rubio-appeal-to.html#storylink=cpy

Comments

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Debbie

Rubio represents the Cuban vote not overall Hispanics. Rubio's presence will highlight the discrepencies between immigrant groups coming to the US. Cubans have a different set of rules to stay in US than other Hispanics. It will also highlight other immigrant groups like Vietnamese who came as refugees and allowed to stay under Nixon. Our immigrant policy is not fair to all groups and Rubio will represent the Cuban immigrants not all Hispanics or other immigrants.

Juan

There is also no evidence that he will do poor among hispanics. Come to think of it there is no evidence even a Mexican American vice presidential candidate would do good among hispanics in Republican party so this article is meaningless.

Rudy Gonzales

Rubio's Hispanic/Latino draw would be sort and tempered with distrust and failure as too many would remember Romney's veto threat. This coming November looks to be one bell-weather outpouring of monies into states in play. TEA party activist have poured themselves into local and state politics to help control monies, infrastructures and decisions at the local level while pushing their narrow issues to the forefront. Make no mistake, the Terrifying Errant Activist(TEA) party are alive and thriving in local and state politics. The Tea Party has strongholds like Virginia, Colorado, Louisiana, South Carolina, Florida and Texas and want to lull the population to sleep while they maneuver their people into power. They are very active locally and control monies, local infrastructure and power. Take back your country - Get active locally - Get active at the state level - Remember to vote straight ticket Democratic - Get registered to vote - Vote - Get out the vote!

Brittanicus

If the majority of Americans stand with the TEA PARTY, they will enforce our immigration laws. The original 1986 Immigration Control and Reform Act will not be undermined, by either the Democrats or Republicans. Those politicians responsible for giving into pressure groups, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the ACLU, Unions, Church hierarchy and the radical minority groups, will be ejected from office. Since President Ronald Reagan signed the Simpson/ Mazzoli bill those in power have blatantly ignored these laws, until illegal immigration with its hundreds of thousands of criminals; drunk drivers causing carnage on our roads, in ever increasing numbers. My way of thinking and the growing numbers of within the Constitutional Tea Party membership, local police should every right to check a person’s identity as they do today in most countries.

The incidents of daily murders, home invasion robberies, assaults, battery and the most malignant of crimes of child molestations. IRS under reported to some degree the tax fraud in billions of dollars in child credits. THE TEA PARTY WILL PUNISH STATES WHO HAVE VIOLATED THE LAW BY IMPLEMENTING SO-CALLED SANCTUARY CITIES. The Illegal parents should take full responsibility for breaking our laws with their kid’s and expect American taxpayers to pay their education, health care, then demand a DREAM ACT law. My children or any other citizen gets special privileges for any of our kid, certainly for rising college costs? Senator Rubio, Mitt Romney better be careful what they imply, that most Tea Party leaders are not going along with the Dream Act, until they fully convince Americans are not going to be stuck with the bill or another rush of Chain Migration of family members?

SO ALL THE ILLEGAL ALIENS AND THEIR FOOTHOLD KIDS ARE EXITING ALABAMA AND OTHER STATES? WELL GUESS WHAT? THE STATES THAT ARE MORE LENIENT TOWARDS FOREIGN NATIONALS WILL HAVE NEW ARRIVALS SCRAMBLING FOR PUBLIC WELFARE. THEY DESERVE EVERY ILLEGAL ALIEN THEY GET AND HAVE TO SUPPORT.

The near half a million pregnant women annually who have crossed borders or arrived by plane, to take advantage of the 50 states welfare programs, including free natal care, food stamps, low income housing. The fraudulent use of ID’s to gain employment or nefarious means of exploiting an unsuspecting victim’s credit; social security numbers relived from new born babies, too young to understand that their future is been compromised. Even the newly deceased have been violated, by the old Social security number being used by illegal migrants and immigrants to gain employment?

We don’t need Obama’s or his confederates Comprehensive Immigration package as the last one was rife with fraud, and millions more nationals turning up using Chain Migration to get a toehold in this country. Some amendments may be granted such as a reorganized, regulated Guest worker program, similar to the 1940’s “Bracero” employment from South of our border. But it must be overseen, to stop violations of the law, with the farmers paying their share towards benefits and not loading up taxpayers with the money burden. Laws must be enforced to halt millions of poverty motivated people arriving here, that eventually Americans are forced to pay in unfunded mandates. Lastly only immigrants possessing excellent credentials in the Sciences, engineering and technical applications should be appraised for instant work visas. Intermediate and low moderately skilled persons should not be admitted, unless under special circumstances and not by the millions businesses are sponsoring every year. We must train our own young folks, not open the doors continuously to foreign immigrants.

Until the border is fully sealed, as it would have been in the 2006 Secure Fence Act, with double layer fences, adorned with razor wire. A new innovation as indicated by American Patrol, Glenn Spencer’s state of technology sensor’s, is a unit that can detect human activity over a amazing distance. According to Mike King, Vice President of Border Technology, Inc., developers of the Sonic Barrier (patent applied for*), tests have shown that the group of foreigners would have been detected had they approached anywhere on the 1/2 mile line of sensors. With a detection range of more than 300 feet, and with continuous coverage, the Sonic Barrier is much superior to the government conventional sensors that could bring immediate response from border agents.

Interior enforcement is just as important, to start illegal aliens leaving of their own accord? Voters need to demand from Congress, specifically from GOP House speaker, John Boehner of Ohio and Dave Camp of Michigan, as the Chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee to stop blocking the 50-state E-Verify bill. Call the central switchboard at 202-224-3121 Washington, DC. They are averse to allow the nationwide mandatory E-Verify bill to stop illegal aliens from pilfering Social Security numbers to obtain U.S. jobs. If you are really feeling enthusiastic, why don't you place a call to one of Mr. Camp's offices: 202-225-3625 Washington, DC (Ways & Means) 202-225-3561 Washington, DC (personal office) 989-631-2552 Midland, Mich. (district office) 231-929-4711 Traverse City, Mich. (district office?)

We must also adjust the 14th Amendment, the Birthright Citizenship Act of 2011 (H.R.140); the country can no longer sustain the subsidizing illegal aliens of $113 billions of dollars a year, being extracted from the 50 states? Bad politicians should be thrown out of office, not excluding state Governors, Mayors, Judges and all elected officials, and replace them with Fresh Tea Party leaders who will insure everybody gets their fair share of the American Dream and enforce all laws attributed to the Constitution and the Rule of Law. NumbersUSA is maintaining a data base of all related information and you should investigate their website for the latest news.

That the farming and agricultural commerce will pay the benefits for their labor and not the state’s taxpayers. There will no importation of migrant poverty anymore, cutting off access to welfare, food stamps, and section 8 housing programs. Don’t need or should we accept any new low skilled workers, instead we need to supply our own citizens with more occupational programs. Further we must safeguard our voting system which has been compromised by the far left, its Liberal associates and Democrats. These entities those are adamant on allowing no states rights to demand the use of official picture ID to vote. Illegal aliens are voting and will again in local, state and federal elections. Another set of regulations to amend, would be a careful examination of the current visa system allowing around a million legal immigrants annually into the U.S. No further violation can be tolerated from businesses and we should only permit the highest brains in engineering, the sciences, mathematicians and computer technology professionals to immigrate.

American voters must begin to walk the path of reclaiming the ‘Rule of Law’ in the United States, by removing the corruption in Washington. Congress had strayed from the elemental principles of the Constitution, that can be said why that 62 new members of claiming Tea Party membership in the 2012 Congress. We can do more by reclaiming the senate, from the likes of Nevada Democrat Harry Reid. But not just Congress, but the state legislators as well and this can be accomplished by removing the offal of state politicians who cling to their state seats like money hungry flies. By electing the constitutional Tea Party we have the power to clean house in all tiers of federal, state, county and municipal government.

For far too long we have been intimidated by copious government. Arizona threatened in law suits by the Department of Justice. All states under ever harsher influence of the Environmental protection Agency, pushing ever increasing numbers of rules and regulation. The Department of Education that has overridden the rights of county school administrators, that is negatively illustrated by the failure within our education system. We need to rid us of the Obama voices in Congress and use the abundantly of oil, natural gas and maintain the use of solar, wind and explore new means of energy. Our deposits of petroleum could go a long way in not just solving our energy problems, but also carve away at our near 16 trillion treasury deficit.
Democrats and the hard left have no conscious, so be aware they are looking in the opposite direction when non citizens vote. Make sure your vote counts, specifically states crammed with illegal aliens and demand from your politicians, that only people who possess official picture ID vote are able to cast a vote.


I borrowed this eye opening comment from a national newspaper:

I am a public school educator and I can tell you, the numbers of Hispanics are not dropping! They are the worst offenders when it comes to our school system. We are now clothing, providing all school supplies, school uniforms where required and feeding illegal children and their parents breakfast and lunch. We also have to provide free English tutoring to Hispanic parents, and if the parents want to sit in during class time to learn the basics, they are free and encouraged to do so. Nowhere in the rest of the world can anyone go and receive all the financial gifts that the illegal’s are sucking out of our economy. Don't believe what some reporters and politicians are spewing, they are not in the trenches with elementary, middle or high school educators. It is becoming harder and harder everyday to keep good, qualified and dedicated teaching professionals in the career path they chose. We really aren't teaching any longer, it's more like crowd control, learning to speak Spanish and breaking up Latino gang fights on an everyday basis.

Guiri

Brittanicus:

So you have finally found an opportunity to express your racists opinions and rants.

Great solution, put up double barbed wire fences to stop the pregnant mexican women terrorists climbing over carrying drugs on their backs, so they can get free medical care.

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound?, use that dormant organ between your ears and say something constructive.

BTW. Your Caps Lock on your keyboard is stuck.

Ron Paul 2012

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