Note: This blog's templates will be updated this afternoon to a responsive design bringing it in line with MiamiHerald.com.

At that time, we will also change to the Facebook commenting system. You will need to log in with a Facebook account in order to comment.

« Newcomer to Senate race beats Mack, LeMieux in Pinellas County straw poll | Main | Rumors fly that Norman plans to drop out of Senate race »

And then there were 141 -- suspected noncitizens on the voter rolls, that is (47 may have cast ballots)

After a quick canvas of county elections supervisors and some new data from the state, it looks like 141 noncitizens were on Florida's voter rolls and have since been removed.

The state earlier today provided us a list of 86 suspected noncitizens on the rolls, 47 of whom may have cast ballots. A dozen other counties not on the state list provided 54 more names of noncitizens on the rolls. It's unclear how many of them have actually cast ballots (we only have the voter IDs of 87 of them).

Here's how they break down by race compared to the overall voter rolls

Race Purged % Rolls %
Hispanic 38% 13%
White (NH) 36% 68%
Black (NH) 9% 13%

 

American Indian or Alaskan Native 2 3%
Asian Or Pacific Islander 2 3%
Black, Not Hispanic 7 9%
Hispanic 28 38%
White, Not Hispanic 27 36%
Other 2 3%
Unknown 5 7%

Here's how they break down by party compared to the overall voter rolls

 

Party Purged % Rolls
DEM 41% 40%
REP 31% 36%
NPA/Oth 27% 20%

 

Understand, this is a small sample size and the numbers are constantly changing. Of course, each side will use what data it can to advance its point and ignore the data that inconveniences its particular theory.

But the higher the suspected noncitizen number gets, the more it tends to help the more conservative argument that the hunt and purge need to continue. That's assuming that a lawful voter doesn't get booted from the rolls. That hasn't happened yet. Although the case of Battle of the Bulge vet Bill Internicola shows that an inconvenienced voter who feels hassled by this program can really stick it to the state.

Still, here's a numbers game to consider: 141 is 4.7% of 3,000 (the size of the state's potential noncitizens list sent to election supervisors and then some). If that noncitizens match-rate held true, guess how many noncitizens would be found if the state sent the counties 11,425 more names?

Answer: 537. That's the number of votes that George Bush beat Al Gore by in 2000 in Florida (yeah, he really beat him by just one vote on the Supreme Court). Now remember that the state's initial list of potential noncitizens is 182,000. The state has refused to release the list. So who knows what's in it?

Again, this is an "if" situation and nothing more. Overall, the samples are just too small, unknown and unstable to extrapolate any meaningful conclusions about how many actual noncitizens are on the rolls. So consider the above exercise a math game. But understand, some people will be deadly serious about playing it nonetheless.

Comments