From Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats but has consistently produced pretty good Florida surveys, which are robo-poll based:
PPP's newest Florida poll finds little change in the state compared to mid-April. At that time Barack Obama led Mitt Romney 50-45 there, and now his advantage is 50-46. Voters in the state narrowly approve of Obama, 49/46, and continue to dislike Romney, giving him a 39/53 favorability rating.
Obama's strength is based on what's become a pretty predictable set of groups. He's up 57-39 with women, 61-36 with Hispanics, 93-7 with African Americans, and 65-27 with voters under 30. Romney's up 52-46 with seniors and 55-41 with whites but he'd need larger advantages with those demographics to be ahead overall.
Jeb Bush wouldn't help Romney either. He has a 48/42 favorability rating but with him as the VP Obama's lead actually increases ever so slightly to 5 points at 50/45.
We also looked at a pair of longer shot Vice Presidential hopefuls- Governor Rick Scott and Congressman Allen West- and they would both be detrimental to Romney's prospects in the state. Scott's approval numbers have taken a step back in the wrong direction compared to April and now only 31% of voters give him good marks to 56% who disapprove. Only North Carolina's Bev Perdue is more unpopular among current Governors in our polling. If he was on the ticket Obama would lead Romney 52-38. Obviously Scott won't be on the ticket for that very reason but it really speaks to how much he hurts the Republican brand in the state, something that could help put Obama over the top come November.
West has a 21/30 favorability rating. It's 9/49 with African American voters, which should probably scuttle any Republican hope that he might help appeal to that segment of the electorate. If he was on the ticket Obama would lead Romney 49-38.
The bottom line on Florida has been the same in our last two polls of the state- it will be close this fall as it always is, but for now Obama is a modest favorite to take it again.
This analysis is also available on our website: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/06/obama-up-in-florida.html