Gracias, Diaz de la Portilla!

There's strength in numbers. And in advertising.

The three Diaz de la Portilla brothers have both, which is why it's a good bet (not a guarantee, though) that they'll all be serving together in the Florida Legislature next year.

Consider the "thank you" campaign of the only brother, state Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, who's unopposed. Just as absentee ballots were going in the mail for the upcoming Aug. 14 GOP primary, he began blasting the airwaves with a Spanish-language ad in which a woman enthusiastically intones:

"Thank you, Diaz de la Portilla, for sharing our conservative values. Thank you, Diaz de la Portilla, for working tirelessly to create jobs. Thank you, Diaz de la Portilla, for historically opposing any tax increase. Thank you, Diaz de la Portilla, for fighting against the socialist agenda of Barack Obama."

Renier Diaz de la Portilla and Alex Diaz de la Portilla thank their older brother as well. Radio ads aren't restricted to a particular district. And what's good for one Diaz de la Portilla on the ballot is therefore good for all. Consider them to be like the Miami political Republican version of the three musketeers.

Alex, the middle brother and a former state senator, is running for District 112 and faces former state Rep. Gus Barreiro, who has the opposite fraternal problem. Barreiro's brother, Bruno Barreiro, is a county commissioner who's getting killed in local TV ads bankrolled by billionaire Norm Braman, who's targeting three other commissioners for supporting too much spending and the new Marlins ballpark. So the Barreiro name is getting trashed by someone outside the campaign just as the Diaz de la Portilla name is being elevated by another (technically speaking) third party. As of the last quarter, Gus Barreiro has raised almost $30k and spent just over $20k. Alex raised under $19k and has spent $16k (not counting the free airtime supplied by big brother).

Renier Diaz de la Portilla, a sitting school board member, might have a tougher challenge than his middle brother. He's facing Manny Diaz Jr. in District 103. Renier (raised $77k; spent $51k) has the backing of Cuban exile icon and former Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart. Diaz Jr. (raised $87k; spent $37k) has the backing of top figures in Hialeah, where much of the district is based.

Assuming both Diaz de la Portillas win their races, they still have general-election matchups. But the districts are largely Republican and this isn't shaping up to be a Democrat-wave year. Consider the primary, therefore, as close to a general-election win as possible. And if that happens, expect both Renier and Alex to look at Miguel and say, "gracias, Diaz de la Portilla."

One thing in common in 2012 presidential and 2014 Gov. races: Rough Fla. economy

Florida’s unemployment rate probably won’t change much between now and the end of the year, and the jobs picture is set to remain bleak through 2016, a team of state economists said Monday.

With a troubled real estate market and trouble brewing in Europe, the state economy faces a prolonged uphill climb, according to the Economic Estimating Conference, a group of state labor experts.

The group’s long-term predictions about the economy have potential repercussions for the both the presidential election in November and the 2014 race for governor.

As President Barack Obama and Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney vie for Florida’s 29 electoral votes, they will likely be doing so at a time when the state’s employment numbers remain stagnant. When Gov. Rick Scott runs for reelection in 2014, Florida will likely be suffering from high joblessness, with a rate near 8 percent.

Even if job creation accelerates in the coming months, that might not translate into declining unemployment right away, since the current rate has been skewed by large numbers of people leaving the labor market in recent months, the economists said.

“At some point, when the economy starts getting better, you’re going to see those folks coming back into the labor force, and begin actively looking for a job again,” said Amy Baker, head of the state Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research. “You could see that put a little upward pressure at least to flatten out, a little bit, the unemployment rate.”

Read more here

--@ToluseO

 

 

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen bashes President Obama for no Israel visits. What about Reagan, Bush, Nixon?

Florida Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a backer of Republican Mitt Romney and the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, took a swipe at President Obama today for failing to visit Israel during his first term.

The left is pushing back, saying that  Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, and George W. Bush. The last two didn't visit Israel until their second terms. It appears Reagan never did.

The focus on Israel and the Jewish vote has taken a back seat of late to all the talk about the Hispanic vote. Republican John McCain's campaign made a big deal about the Jewish vote in 2008 and it didn't work then. But this year could be different.

Here's Ros-Lehtinen's statement:

“Next week, Mitt Romney is traveling to Israel for the fourth time. Meanwhile, Barack Obama has yet to visit Israel as President, even as he has found time to visit numerous other countries around the world, including in the Middle East. We can only speculate about why the President has failed to visit the capital of our closest ally in the region, but we don’t need to speculate about the timing of the latest hint from the White House that President Obama will travel to Israel in his second term. It’s politically inspired, coming as it does only days before Mitt Romney heads off to Jerusalem.  One should not play political games with U.S. foreign policy, particularly at a moment when the Middle East is a tinderbox.”

Cue the soft piano music; Obama's got a kinder-gentler battleground contrast ad

After trying to eviscerate Republican Mitt Romney and his business record, President Obama's campaign is going kinder and gentler with its lates ad that's supposed to run in Florida, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

** Note: Mitt Romney's campaign refuses to say which of its ads are running in Florida, hence we're not noting every ad announcement on this Florida blog unless we 1) see it in Florida or 2) its newsworthiness necessitates a mention.

This Obama ad, called "The Choice," features Obama speaking directly into the camera as he contrasts his policies with Romney's:

Of Brooks Brothers problems and debate-ducking; Connie Mack hit from right and left

Rep. Connie Mack will probably cruise to vcictory in the Aug. 14 Republican primary, but Democrats and his fellow Republicans aren't letting him rest on his likely laurels.

From the Tampa Bay Times:

A Jacksonville lawyer has filed an FEC complaint against Connie Mack's campaign for allegedly violating federal election law through the purchase of Brooks Brothers clothing.

The purchases, about $470, were reported last week by the Buzz. Mack's campaign has blamed it on an unnamed staffer and said the charge was taken care of.

Attorney Clyde Collins -- former Duval County Democratic chairman -- said in a news release that he filed the complaint because the Connie Mack improperly "obtained expensive and personal clothing with federal campaign funds in violation of the Federal Elections Campaign Act (FECA). Connie Mack is well aware that federal campaign funds cannot be used for personal clothing for a federal candidate. Other House members such as Rep. Andrews and Rep. Sanchez, have been cited for similar federal campaign violations."

“There is no excuse for this conduct," Collins said in the release. "Campaign finance laws are not optional. If Connie Mack can’t abide by the law, how can we trust him to be a lawmaker?”

Mack campaign spokesman David James responds: "Sadly, Bill Nelson wants to now debate a staffer that made a stupid mistake instead of discussing how he cast the deciding vote on ObamaCare or why he votes in LockStep with President Obama 98 percent of the time. It just goes to show yet again how totally disconnected Bill Nelson is from the real issues and concerns of Floridians."

James refused to name the staffer or say what was purchased. "The problem is solved and will reflect in the next report," he wrote in an e-mail.

"Debate," you say? Well, Republican challenger and former Rep. Dave Weldon has something to say about that. He's criticizing Mack for refusing to debate. Weldon's camp put together this web ad highlighting the matter (*nit: It calls the Tampa Bay Times the "Tampa Bay Tribune"). Assuming the mocking of Mack doesn't hurt him, the web ad actually pushes Mack to the political center by criticizing him for not taking enough conservative positions on abortion and stem cells.

Karl Rove's Crossroads Generation getting notice in FL. But is it 'a clown group, bro'?

A 20-something from Florida alerts us to the increasing regularity of Facebook ads of the anti-President Obama group Crossroads Generation, which has produced a few eye-catching ads and info sheets bashing the Democrat, who overwhelmingly won the youth vote in 2008.

Obama is poised to do the same with young voters again, but will they turn out in the same numbers? Crossroads Generation hopes not. Hence the ad, which say nothing about Republican Mitt Romney.

The latest ad (below) garnered about 66 comments so far. Almost all of them bashing the ads and the group.

It started off well with Facebook user Brian Smith writing "I like it! It''s concise and in an easily digestible format that people can comprehend and analysis quickly!"

He was largely alone. A sampling:

"This page deserves as much trolling as it can possibly get," Aaron Tyler wrote

"You're a clown group, bro," Brian S. Earman wrote.

"Don't listen to Right Wing Facebook Front Groups," wrote Louis Leo IV

Kirk Pepper leaving House, Cannon for Speaker-designate Chris Dorworth

Kirk Pepper, a top Florida House aide and political adviser to House Speaker Dean Cannon, is leaving that post to work as special adviser to Speaker designate Chris Dorworth (scheduled to take leadership of the House in two years).

That puts him in position to head the Republicans' House campaign efforts in 2014.

Pepper (no relation to former Sen./Rep. Claude Pepper) knows Florida politics. Before working for Cannon, he was part of Attorney General Bill McCollum's gubernatorial primary campaign that fell just short of beating Rick Scott. Priot to that, Pepper was a Republican Party of Florida deputy director in 2008 election cycle and he was the victory director in 2006. He also worked in Missouri for the Bush-Cheney reelection campaign in 2004.

The praise:

"Kirk has a unique understanding of both the politics and the policy that governs the legislative process,” Dorworth said in a statement. “I am honored to have him lead my team."

"I was honored to have Kirk as a part of my team in the Speaker’s Office. His advice and counsel proved to be invaluable,” said Speaker Cannon. “I know Representative Dorworth will benefit from Kirk’s broad range of political and policy experience as he prepares to lead House Campaigns and ultimately become Speaker.”

State attorney seeks gag order in case against Carroll's accuser

Alleging that attorneys for Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll's accuser are attempting to "try this case in the media," the state attorney in Leon County is asking the judge for a gag order that seals file and bars lawyers from talking to the media in the case against Carroll's former aide.

"Closure is necessary to prevent a serious and imminent threat to the administration of justice,'' wrote state attorney Willie Meggs in a five-page motion filed today in the Second Judical Circuit. Download MotionToPreclude.6.1.12

"If counsel for the defendant continues to discuss with the media the facts surrounding this case and their anticipated trial arguments, this fundamental right will be placed in jeopardy,'' he wrote. "To date a google search of 'Lt. Governor Jennifer Carroll and Carletha Cole' renders well over 235 news reports, many of which contain information provided by counsel for the defendant."

Carroll's former aide, Carletha Cole, has been charged with sharing an illegal recording with a Jacksonville newspaper reporter. In response, Cole's attorney, Stephen Webster, has responded in court papers by hurling charges that Cole was fired because she allegedly encountered Carroll in an "uncompromising position" with another aide and suggested both attempted to cover up an arson attempt in Cole's office. 

"The efforts on the part of the defense to try this case in the media include an on camera interviews given by Mr. Webster to a local news station on at least two separate occasions within the last week,'' the motion states.

Flags to be lowered for Colorado victims

Gov. Rick Scott released the following statement this morning.

Pursuant to the President’s Proclamation to lower our national flag in honor of the victims of the tragedy in Aurora, Colorado, Governor Rick Scott hereby directs the flags of the United States of America and the State of Florida to be flown at half-staff at all local, state, and federal buildings, installations, and grounds throughout the State of Florida.  The flags shall be lowered immediately and remain at half-staff until the expiration of the President’s national directive at sunset on July 25, 2012. 

Where's Rick Scott this campaign season?

TALLAHASSEE — Someone is conspicuously absent from the campaign brochures produced by Republican candidates in Florida this summer:

Gov. Rick Scott.

Hobbled by weak poll numbers, awkward on the stump and still somewhat estranged from the party establishment that shunned him in 2010, Scott is invisible on the campaign trail across Florida.

He also has steadfastly avoided taking sides in party primaries to a greater extent than either of his two predecessors, Charlie Crist and Jeb Bush.

Colorful images of Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio can be seen everywhere in GOP circles. But candidates sometimes appear to go out of their way to avoid showing Scott's picture.

In the hotly contested Republican primary for a Tampa Bay Senate seat, Rep. Jim Frishe hands out brochures featuring pictures of him with three stalwarts of the GOP: Bush, Rubio and U.S. Rep. C.W. Bill Young. But not Scott.

More here