« Crossroads announces $2.3 million stimulus-Obama basher FL ad-buy | Main | U.S. says Florida's voter purge violates federal law »

PPP: Obama 48%-Romney 47%. Add Rubio as VP: Romney 49%-Obama 47% in FL

From Public Policy Polling:

PPP's first likely voters poll of Florida finds that it's likely to take its customary place as one of the most closely contested states in the country this year. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by the slightest of margins, 48-47, but Romney would take a small advantage in the state if he added either Marco Rubio or Condoleezza Rice to his ticket.

Speaking to the general discontent of the electorate this year Florida voters aren't terribly enamored with either Obama or Romney. Voters narrowly disapprove of the job Obama's doing, with 50% giving him poor marks to 47% who think he's doing a good job. But they're not terribly fond of Romney either, with 46% rating him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion. Still this parity between Obama's approval and Romney's favorability numbers is notable- Obama has tended to run well ahead of Romney on that front.

Obama and Romney are holding their party bases at basically equal levels, with 84% of Democrats supporting Obama and 83% of Republicans committed to Romney. Romney's holding a 47-40 lead with independents. Obama's up 51-44 with women, 61-34 with Hispanics, and 58-35 with young voters while Romney's ahead 50-45 with men, 56-39 with whites, and 52-44 with seniors.

We tested five potential running mate pairings for Romney in Florida and two of them moved him from a small disadvantage to a small lead. Home state Senator Marco Rubio makes the biggest difference for Romney, pushing him up to a 49-47 lead. Rubio's approval numbers aren't earth shattering at 45/42, but his appeal is strong enough to help Romney gain a couple points with both Democrats and Republicans.

The other difference maker among potential Romney running mates is Condoleezza Rice. She has a 59/28 favorability rating, basically unheard of among politicians today. Republicans (76/15) and independents (62/26) and love her and even with Democrats she's on narrowly positive ground (42/41). If she was on the ticket Romney's lead with independents would jump from 7 points to 13, leaving him ahead 46-45 overall.

The other trio of potential Romney running mates has minimal impact or pushes the race slightly in Obama's direction. With Tim Pawlenty on the ticket Obama's lead remains at a point, with Bobby Jindal on it Obama's lead goes up to 3, and with Rob Portman on it he maximizes his advantage at 4 points. Jindal has 58% name recognition in Florida, Pawlenty's is 56%, and Portman's is 45%.

Regardless of who Romney picks it looks like Florida is once again a sheer toss up, and there's not much reason to think that will change between now and November.

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Tiffany

I do think Condi Rice would energize the Ticket of a Romney-Condi. She is a Smart Woman, black who can pull the Black, Hispanic, White women voters...And the fact that she may be a bit of a Moderate and even a little bit of a liberal mixed in such as her believing in contraception and can be a little pro choice.(which seems to be a problem right now w/the polls) Only Helps the Ticket Not hurts it. The Second or First Pick Should be Marco Rubio. He is Smart, Charismatic And Hispanic which Will Help with the Hispanic Vote. Either way it must Be Either Condi or Marco. Any boring different person than those two...I think Romney will have a problem if it’s not either Condi or Rubio.

The comments to this entry are closed.