From American Research Group, which, like a previous Public Policy Polling robo-poll today found President Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-45 among likely Florida voters. A Miami Herald poll, which used a different methodology and (likely) partisan breakdown, found a much closer race. For discussion on those differences, read the bottom of the post about the PPP poll here.
Both PPP and the Herald's Mason-Dixon poll showed the same split among independents, 51-40, in favor of Obama. ARG finds them virtually tied, 47-48, for Obama and Romney respectively. That's a sign that the poll probably skewed Democratic in its survey size, though the crosstabs aren't available.
| Likely voters | 50% | 45% | 1% | 4% |
| Democrats (42%) | 83% | 12% | 1% | 4% |
| Republicans (36%) | 12% | 84% | - | 4% |
| Independents (22%) | 47% | 48% | 1% | 4% |
Boy, I know it hurts Marc Caputo's feelings, but there really are more Democrats than Republicans in Florida -- 41% to 36%, according to the Division of Elections.
So that "skew" he's talking about is actually called "reality."
Posted by: Peter Principle | September 24, 2012 at 07:48 PM