Biz group FL poll: Romney 50%-Obama 47%

The Associated Industries of Florida business group has released snippets of a survey taken by  Mclaughlin & Associates, a firm that typically polls for Republicans, which finds Mitt Romney clinging to an inside-the-error-margin lead over President Obama, 50-47%, among likely voters.

Th AIF numbers suggest a significant bounce compared to pre-convention surveys from Quinnipiac University and CNN/Time/ORC  (Although Public Policy Polling, which typically surveys for Democrats, found Obama up by just 1 before and after the conventions). And the Florida figures show a more comfortable lead for Romney now than he faces nationwide, where most surveys indicate Obama got a post-convention bounce while Romney didn't. Update: Missed this Survey USA Poll released yesterday showing Obama with a 4-point lead (48-44) in Florida.

But there's still a good chance that Florida could be breaking the opposite direction from the nation. The state's jobless and home-foreclosure rates are higher than the nation's. The poll says 55 percent to 40 percent of likely voters say they're not better off than four years ago. There's also a good chance that this one poll will be a pro-Romney outlier as other surveys are released.

The internals of the AIF poll have good and bad news for Obama. On the good side, Obama is tied among independents (46-46%) in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 450,000 active registered voters. On the bad side, Obama does worse among Democrats (14 percent would vote for Romney) than Romney does among Republicans (9 percent would vote for Obama).

If the poll is right, Romney has done a far better job solidfying his base than Obama and has attracted a bigger share of Florida Democrats (largely from conservative rural/North Florida, presumably).

 ** Post was updated to fix an erroneous date

Comments

[Sherri Ellmore]

I am a Canadian married to an American US Air Force Retiree living in Florida six months of the year. He says if Obama gets back in we are going to live in Canada permanently.

[Stephen Lorimor]

Tell him that he'd better start packing. I run an political poll tracking website and study polls daily. The electoral math is looking rather grim for Romney. He has less than 55 days to cause a significant shift in public opinion if he plans on avoiding the crappy end of the election night phone call.

[joel]

Have a good trip, this poll is BS, even Rasmussen has Obama ahead! Go back and enjoy socialist Canada!

[billy]

I-95 goes north to the boarder. Don't forget to pack you heavy coat AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

[theslap]

Florida will be too close to call. None of the polls are consistent and nearly all are well within MOE. If you are heartened by the .06 RCP average, you shouldn't be. As is the case in all states, and Rasmussen rightly points out, there is an enthusiasm gap on the left and a spread of 1 point or less is certainly not safe in an environment where you need voter turnout on the levels of 2008. Odds are Florida will break for Romney if Obama has less than a 3% avg lead because the enthusiasm simply is not as high as he needs. Bake in the continued fallout from his recent foreign policy fumbles and continued bad economic news and Romney should have an average lead going in anyways.

[Can't Take Anymore]

Any one with a pulse knows that the Chamber of Commerce and AIF have become wholly owned subsidiaries of the Republican Party. Their only interests are shifting taxes on to the backs of others, maximizing profits and keeping the wages of employees as low as possible. Greed and selfishness are the only guidelines they intend to follow. Long gone are the days of enlightened self-interest that created and sustained the American middle class.

[Angelaturner0501]

WOOOOOOOHOOOOOO GO FLORIDA!!!!!!! WE NEED THIS!!!! ROMNEY RYAN!!!!!! Vote and campaign for the sake of our country, our children!!!!

[Lord Nazh]

Joel: Rasmussen has Romney up 1

[lester]

Obama took $700B from Medicare for a new entitlement. Obama is one and done in FL.

[Mike Young]

Hello Lord Nazh - in your reply to Joel that Rasmussen has Romney up by 1--- the latest update from Rasmussen this morning--
Thursday, September 13, 2012
President Obama has now moved slightly ahead in the critical battleground state of Florida despite the presence of the Republican National Convention in Tampa late last month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Obama with 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 46%.

[Lord Nazh]

I was talking about national :) didn't see the update on florida until now

[Marc Zell]

This poll is consistent with the noniscientific results of our phone bank to Florida voters earlier in the week.

[hawkny]

Raz's tested margin of error is 3.9. So if they have Romney up by 1, at 48-47%, in actuality, Obama is ahead 50.9 - 44.1%....

[Jacob]

It's actually looking quite decent for Romney. He's got millions ready to spend, while Obama has been spending it for months now, not changing public opinion. I'll give Romney Florida. It'll be Ohio and Wisconsin that pick the winner. Maybe Michigan?

[JR Peterson]

If I said I disliked Obama and can't wait for the polls to show a strong Romney lead across the board it would be an understatement.

Obama's Presidency looks an awful lot like Carter minus the media bias. The media back then destroyed Carter for a poor economy and the death of an ambassador.

With the right policies, the whole country will turn around in 18 months. The optics on Obama's policies suck after four years of suckiness. I am an American and I deserve better from my President.

Show up or shut up! Obama doesn't show up, so he should go away. I agree with Mr. Eastwood...We all hired him, we should all fire him for being the worst President since Carter.

[MITT]

EVEN FOX NEWS--YES, FOX NEWS--HAS MR. OBAMA--IN THE GENERAL ELECTION--UP BY 5% POINTS----LOOK AT READ AND STUDY ALL THE POLLING DATA--YOU'LL SEE THAT MR. OBAMA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER TERM----HE'S BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB CLEANING UP THE MESS THAT G.W.B. LEFT BEHIND---REMEMBER THAT JACK-ASS WHO CAUSED THE MESS WE'RE ALL IN...

[daniel]

Mitt,

You must be one of those moronic liberals who blames everyone else, but the person who is in charge. Obama is a complete failure and our country is going to collapse under his pathetic leadership. Tell me, who is going to pay for all the liberal programs when our economy goes down in flames....

[behonest]

nbc /marxist polls
VA 30 dems 24 rep 44 ind + 6 dems total 49 44

fl 36 31 32 +5 dems 49 44

[matt]

LOL....all of those polls that have Obama up by 5-6% are oversampling democrats...by a lot. For example, the democracy corps poll that had obama beating romney 50-45 yesterday broke down into 41% democrats, 30% republicans, and 29% independents. And EVERYBODY except rasmussen is oversampling democrats 6-12%. Given that the percentage of republicans among the people who actually went out and voted in 2010 was 4% higher than democrats, do you really think the "actually gonna show up on election day" voting public has shifted FIFTEEN points more democratic in the last two years? Don't take my word for it, actually read the polls in their entirety. Almost all of them will tell you how many republicans and how many democrats are included.

[Jack Dawson]

Just remember the Chick-Fil-A day...that will be this year's election on the right....we don't care about no stinkin' polls...the one that matters is on Nov 6. I have lived in Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida and have never had a poll call me...who cares about the polls...Just show up and send the O-Man back to Kenya.

[dji]

first this poll is bogus. almost nobody gives romney a lead in florida or nationaly . and as for the sampleing being off......well it's common knowledge there are more registered dems than repub's. i know that's hard for you right wingers but it's true. so when you day the dems are over sampled it's because there are more of them.

[BP Pope]

If you think the economy is bad now, just wait for another 4 years of this insanity!!!

If you love this country, your children and your future.....Like Clint says...Let Him Go !!!

[MITT]

REPUBLICANS—DON’T BE AFRAID:

Here’s all 50 States plus DC—Obama 308 Electoral votes—and Romney 230—(needed to win is 270)

Obama = 76.2% chance of winning:
Romney = 23.8% chance of winning:

Popular vote is close—but remember that doesn’t count:

Take a good look at the website—(FIVE THIRTY EIGHT)

Scroll down and look thru State-by-State Projections:

Then scroll thru the FILTER—click on All States:

Have fun!!!

[Thomrh]

Rasmussen polls are historically the most accurate of all the major polling companies. You can't believe all of them since they are usually affiliated with a network that leans heavily in Dems' favor. You have to go by history of accuracy before and after elections. Rasmussen has that history. They use most-likely voters in their polling, which is realistic since many of those polled by the other companies include all registered voters as their sample. Most likely voters weed out a percentage of those who are not likely to actually vote on election day, including mostly younger voters which skew Democrat polling. Also, if a state was a close win for Obama against McCain, you can bet your booty that many of those fence sitters in 2008 will switch to Romney this time, making those previously close states a win for the GOP. Trust me, Obama doesn't want the polls to be close in battleground states on Nov. 6th. Also keep in mind that the debates have not hit yet. Debates, regardless of who is in office, almost ALWAYS favor the challenger rather than the incumbent. Incumbents have the most to prove during a debate. And Obama will have a LOT of numbers thrown at him. Mark my words here...his answers in the debates will decide the election outcome.

[LinDai Kendall]

Ronald Reagan was 17% below Jimmy Carter 30 days before that election and assuming the presidency in 1980. So, have faith, Romney much more qualified than Barry no contest, work hard to inform people about the TRUTH about the economy, foreign policy, and healthcare.....

[dazey]

I just don't see how it is possible that people do not see through this fraud of prez. It's been obvious to me for four years.

[Very Smart Guy]

Why can't anyone tell me the truth about Newt's whereabouts? Or is it that you won't?
Could it be that he's sending the Rasmussen poll numbers from his redoubt on the moon along with the self deporting ray?
Think about it!!

[Please Not In The Face]

As far as the polls being well within MOE, they are also well within Larry and Curly too.

[Jon]

I just wish the discussion was about "opportunity," not jobs. We're Americans, we don't want a stinkin' job! We want an opportunity to succeed!
The trouble is: If you succeed, Obama wants all your profits. Thus, no one is borrowing all the money in the banks. There is no payoff on the other end.
But that's how it goes down. The government removes the initiative/reward so no one tries anymore.
After a while, the only thing still working is the shop making "Out of Order" signs. (see former U.S.S.R.)

[MITT]

After the 2010 midterm elections, Nate Silver (538 Blog) concluded that RASMUSSEN'S POLLS WERE THE LEAST ACCURATE OF THE MAJOR POLLSTERS in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate race, in which Rasmussen, in a poll completed three weeks before the election, showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin – a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen's poll, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election--in FiveThirtyEight’s database--which includes all polls conducted since 1998"--Silver named Quinnipiac University Poll as the most accurate poll of the election cycle.

[MITT]

Talking Points Memo has questioned the methodology of Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index.
In March 2012, Media Matters for America criticized Rasmussen Reports for portraying itself as politically independent while headlining two Republican fundraising events.

DOESN'T MATTER WHO YOU LIKE OR DISLIKE--FACTS ARE FACTS

[Ken]

this blog shows that Ras was tied for most accurate in 2008.

http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

[Bob]

socialist Canada will be better than a communist Usa
with Obama, believe me I have lived un communism you all will sorry, you know the old saying: "it cannot happen here, that is what we thought too."

[matt]

LOL...Nate Silver is about as nonpartisan as Rush Limbaugh. According to his arcane math, a Rasmussen poll from today is half as reliable as a PPP poll from three weeks ago...so pardon me while I roll my eyes.

As for it being common knowledge that there are more registered democrats than registered republicans, that's generally true, although it has shifted dramatically in favor of republicans since 2008. However, it's also common knowledge that registered republicans actually show up at the polls on election day at a higher rate than registered democrats. And these are surveys of likely, not registered voters...so a sample containing 41% democrats and 30% republicans in Florida is absolutely a gross oversampling of democrats!

You relying on 538 and Media Matters is as smart as me relying on the blaze...except that I don't. I actually read the polls. The whole thing, not just the big shiny number at the top.

[Will Evans]

"I am a Canadian married to an American US Air Force Retiree living in Florida six months of the year. He says if Obama gets back in we are going to live in Canada permanently.

Posted by: Sherri Ellmore | September 13, 2012 at 12:25"

So Sherri, I guess you and your husband are part of the 47% who don't pay taxes and are moocher. What worst is your are not even an American. You live in Canada and mooch off the govt up there too. Funny how when republicans blame those "other" people for the problems in American, most people like you don't realize that you are the "other" they are talking about.