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FL Q Poll: Obama 53% – Romney 44%; a 1-month 6-point shift in Dem's favor

Though his 9-point lead looks impressive, President Obama's apparent edge over Republian Mitt Romney has a smaller -- yet more significant figure -- to pay attention to in the latest poll: 6 percentage points.

That's the shift in Obama's favor in a month between two Quinnipiac University polls. Other polls are picking up the same momentum.

Good for Obama. Bad for Romney.

Remember this about polling: It ain''t just the topline, it's the trend.

But the toplines, too, are troubling for Romney. Obama's 9-point lead is well outside the 2.8% error margin for the poll.

From Quinnipiac:

President Barack Obama is over the magic 50 percent mark and tops Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters by 9 to 12 percentage points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today.

Voters in each state see President Obama as better than Gov. Romney to handle the economy, health care, Medicare, national security, an international crisis and immigration. Romney ties or inches ahead of the president on handling the budget deficit. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states – no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them – shows:

Florida: Obama leads Romney 53 – 44 percent, compared to 49 – 46 percent August 23;

Ohio: Obama over Romney 53 – 43 percent, compared to 50 – 44 percent August 23;

Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 54 – 42 percent, unchanged from 53 – 42 percent

More here

For the wonks:

DRI % breakdown in this poll: 35-27-33. 

DRI % breakdown in 08 exits: 37-34-29.

Republicans will complain the poll undersamples Republicans. That argument, in the face of numerous polls showing no real gains for Romney in quite some time, is getting tougher to make for the Romney camp, which says it has a turnout machine. But so do Dems, who registered more than 200,000 new voters this election season compared to 44,000 registered by the GOP in Florida.


Comments

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stanchaz

Don't you worry your little heads, dear Republicans:
Mitt Romney, the Great Flipper, may never be elected dog-catcher
(and for good reason)
BUT ...he will ALWAYS have a job at The International House of Pancakes!

Jason S

This poll is truly comical. There is a 7% dropoff in Republican turnout UNDER 2008 levels, which was the worst Republican turnout since the 1974 midterms.

This poll is assuming Republicans are LESS MOTIVATED than in 2008, which is one of the more extreme assumptions made this election cycle.

I cannot believe the polling has gotten this bad this election season. Sure, Obama is up by 11. This is just absolutely BS and any reputable pollster knows it. Up by a point, maybe. 2, possibly.

Matt

This poll is a joke and is a blow to the credibility of the Q poll. There is absolutely no way Republican intensity is below Democratic. There is no empirical data out there to support this.

It is almost as if Peter Brown and the hacks at the Q poll adjusted the numbers on purpose to show a big lead for Obama. Of course the communications dept of the Obama campaign i.e. all the press in the state want to report this.

Jason S

Matt, in this very poll, Romney is winning Independents by 3 points in Florida, which would, by any stretch would mean the race is dead even since Democrats are more likely in Florida to cross over than Republicans historically. Its obvious someone is cooking the books.

What is frustrating to folks on the right is that despite the inaccuracy of the polling, they continue the "narrative of inevitable victory" for Obama. That is, every time you put a poll out there showing Obama winning, it moves a few more folks into his column. Studies have been conducted on this "go with the winner" effect, and its real. So now, you have this continual drip of fatally flawed polls creating this impression to last minute deciders that Romney is winning - giving Obama an edge. Its actually very clever.

Someone in the Obama camp has convinced pollsters that Democrats are going to turn out at or above 2008 levels because they are continually reflected in their polls. If this is the work of the Obama team, i'm quite impressed.

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