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WaPo FL Poll: Obama 51-Romney 47

The Washington Post has released a new likely-voter survey showing President Obama with an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney, 51-47. The numbers differ from a Miami Herald poll taken last week showing a closer 48-47 race in Obama's favor.

Update: This poll doesn't seem to be heavy on Democrats. Its Democrat-Republican-Independent split: 33%, 32%, 31%. In The Herald's Mason-Dixon poll surveyed 44% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 17% independents a 5-point margin that exactly mirrors the split in Florida (41-36-23). The Herald poll asked people how they were registered, the WaPo poll apparently asked them party ID.

Polls that use a how-do-you-identify-yourself methodology differ from polls that actually ask people how they're registered (the latter of which is preferred in Florida, a state with a solid voter registration system). More here on that. And most other party ID polls right now have more people identifying themselves as Democrats.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/polls/#storylink=cpy\The Post says Obama wins 74 percent of non-white voters in Florida, but it doesn't show the Hispanic breakdown -- a key demographic to measure.
Obama’s approval ratings in Florida are 50 percent threshold, the Post says, and 52 percent say they approve of the president's handling of the economy.

Like the Herald poll, the post says Romney "runs about evenly with the president when it comes to who is trusted to handle the economy." Voters in our poll was deadlocked on the issue.

"But, by a whopping 60 to 35 percent margin, Florida voters say they trust Obama rather than Romney to advance the interests of the middle class. By 14 percentage points, they side with the president as the one with greater empathy toward people’s economic problems," The Post reports on questions we didn't ask.

The Herald poll asked who could be trusted more to keep Medicare financially stable, and Obama led numerically but not statistically, by 2 point. The Post might have asked a slightly different question about Medicare about the "future" of the program. And it found Obama winning that hands down: "Today in Florida, the president runs 15 percentage points ahead of his challenger on whom voters would trust more to determine the future of Medicare."



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Jason S

Its interesting how these samples are assembled. These polls are assuming a turnout model from 2008, which virtually nobody believes will actually be replicated. Yet the polling continues to represent that model, assuming this massive young and black turnout that far exceeded 2004.

I'm surprised that this hasnt been challenged. These polls are probably 2-3 points in favor of President Obama using these models. When you use the 2004 model - which was pretty close, the race looks nearly tied.


Very irresponsible reporting Mr. Caputo. The likely voter model was 33% democrat, 32% republican, and 31% independent. That voter spread of plus 10 democrat was for registered voters and that poll result was 52-43 not 51-47. Let's see if this is corrected. Btw here's link



Romney's brought this meltdown upon himself with his atrocious Secret Speech. Looks like he foolishly assumed that no=one there would tell.

The Secret Speech was a fiasco -- showing breathtaking political incompetence. So was the bungled response by Romney and his campaign to the political firestorm that inevitably erupted.

But much more important than all that, is the undeniable fact that Romney's Secret Speech was morally vile, despicable. He poured venomous contempt on half of America, just because of their modest economic means -- and those in the "47%" assaulted by this defamation include almost all of our serving military; most of our veterans; and tens of millions of retirees who worked all their lives, paid their taxes, and are nor being insulted by Romney for accepting the Medicare and Social Security THAT THEY PAID FOR !!!

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