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WaPo FL Poll: Obama 51-Romney 47

The Washington Post has released a new likely-voter survey showing President Obama with an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney, 51-47. The numbers differ from a Miami Herald poll taken last week showing a closer 48-47 race in Obama's favor.

Update: This poll doesn't seem to be heavy on Democrats. Its Democrat-Republican-Independent split: 33%, 32%, 31%. In The Herald's Mason-Dixon poll surveyed 44% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 17% independents a 5-point margin that exactly mirrors the split in Florida (41-36-23). The Herald poll asked people how they were registered, the WaPo poll apparently asked them party ID.

Polls that use a how-do-you-identify-yourself methodology differ from polls that actually ask people how they're registered (the latter of which is preferred in Florida, a state with a solid voter registration system). More here on that. And most other party ID polls right now have more people identifying themselves as Democrats.


Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/polls/#storylink=cpy\The Post says Obama wins 74 percent of non-white voters in Florida, but it doesn't show the Hispanic breakdown -- a key demographic to measure.
Obama’s approval ratings in Florida are 50 percent threshold, the Post says, and 52 percent say they approve of the president's handling of the economy.

Like the Herald poll, the post says Romney "runs about evenly with the president when it comes to who is trusted to handle the economy." Voters in our poll was deadlocked on the issue.

"But, by a whopping 60 to 35 percent margin, Florida voters say they trust Obama rather than Romney to advance the interests of the middle class. By 14 percentage points, they side with the president as the one with greater empathy toward people’s economic problems," The Post reports on questions we didn't ask.

The Herald poll asked who could be trusted more to keep Medicare financially stable, and Obama led numerically but not statistically, by 2 point. The Post might have asked a slightly different question about Medicare about the "future" of the program. And it found Obama winning that hands down: "Today in Florida, the president runs 15 percentage points ahead of his challenger on whom voters would trust more to determine the future of Medicare."

 

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