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Florida closing in on 1 million absentee votes; 10% of electorate has voted; GOP up 5%

About 1 million Floridians will have cast absentee ballots in the nation's biggest battleground state by day's end based on current trends.

As of this morning, 925,000 people have already voted. That's about 10 percent -- if note more -- of the likely Florida electorate of about 9 million voters.

Republicans are hanging on to their lead in absentee ballots cast. But they're not as far ahead as they used to be. Republicans are ahead by 5.4 percentage points (note: it looks like 6% in the numbers below due to rounding). But that's down compared to this point in 2008, when their cast ballots were 16 points higher than Democratic absentee ballots cast, according to Democrats.**

Still, it's a GOP lead. Expect that to change when in-person early voting, which Democrats dominate, begins Saturday Oct. 27.

Voted ballots:

Party      Voted        %
REP     414,016 45%
DEM     363,881 39%
IND     147,707 16%
Total     925,604

Outstanding requests:

Party    Requested         %
REP     634,580 39%
DEM     648,824 40%
IND     326,680 20%
Total  1,610,084

Top 15 AB-voting hotspots, which account for 68 percent of the ballots cast (R/D=Republican-Democrat):

County      Total       REP       DEM     R/D
PIN     101,737   42,094    40,181     1,913
DAD       73,472   32,963    27,846     5,117
HIL       63,559   25,200    27,262    (2,062)
ORA       51,309   20,061    22,867    (2,806)
BRO       46,816   13,759    25,699  (11,940)
SAR       40,881   18,404    15,906     2,498
LEE       33,689   17,431     9,985     7,446
BRE       33,162   16,291    11,960     4,331
POL       31,919   13,641    13,684        (43)
PAS       29,073   12,356    11,440        916
VOL       28,830   12,996    10,852     2,144
DUV       26,280   13,250     9,658     3,592
CLL       26,226   15,969     5,716   10,253
MRN       22,181   10,644     8,570     2,074
SEM       21,302   11,068     6,812     4,256

 **One of the reasons Democrats are doing better with absentee ballots is that they have to because the GOP-controlled Legislature cut back on in-person early voting hours relative to 2008, when Democrats swamped the polls during a cumulative 120 hours of early voting over 14 days. Now, the days are limited to eight and the hours to 96 (note: the hours were always capped at 96 total, but then Gov. Charlie Crist issued an executive order that kept the early voting polls open longer).

We last explored this in an article when the vote hit the half-million mark

Comments

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holdemxpert

This is actually a big Romney lead, since the Indies will break heavily toward him. Id put the voting at 55:45 in his favor at this point.

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