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Liberal group FL poll: Obama 47-Romney 45

A recent Florida poll of likely voters from Project New America and USAction, which appears to be a liberal union-leaning group, shows President Obama holding an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney 47-45%.

The group, which hired Grove Insight, to conduct the survey had polled last week in Florida as well and found Obama up 48-45%. Assuming the numbers are right (they didn't send cross tabs and this group is largely unknown), that suggests Obama got nothing out of the debate. The survey says it polled 40 percent Democrats, 40 percent Republicans and 20 percent independents (a decent Election Day model).

Here are excerpts of the polling memo:

* Seven percent are undecided right now. These uncommitted voters tend to like Obama (35% favorable, 26% unfavorable) more than Romney (20% favorable, 30% unfavorable).

*The gender gap has widened since our last poll on October 17-18. Women now provide the President a 13-point lead (52% Obama, 39% Romney) while men opt for Romney by 11 points (52% Romney, 41% Obama).

*Obama wins Independent voters right now (49% Obama, 33% Romney), though the race is close among white Independents (43% to 41%).

*While Obama is more likely to be thought to “understand the struggles middle class families face” by a wide, 13-point margin, the difference between the two when it comes to trusted decision making (+5 Obama) and calm, steady leadership (+3 Obama) are closer. Romney is also a bit more likely to be seen as “too willing to say or do anything to get elected” (+6 Romney).


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I'm sure this result is correct, and reflects the plain fact that President Obama crushed Romney in the second and third debates.

Romney tried to shout down, bully and intimidate the President of the United States -- and failed, utterly. A thoroughly contemptible performance.

Thank God (I mean it) that Romney and Lyin' Ryan are losing. What a staggering disaster they would be, if elected. More, endless, disastrous wars abroad, George W. Bush style (from the same old Bush foreign policy team Romney is now reassembling. Plus, in the ultimate irony, Taliban-style laws on social issues in the United States, giving the government, not individual women, control over women's bodies.

The new wars, plus even more huge tax cuts for the very rich, would blow up the deficit (steadily coming under control with Obama) to unheard of magnitude. Which would be the trigger for Romney and Ryan to do what they've wanted to do all along, but dare not admit:

1. Doing away with the tax breaks (like the mortgage tax deduction) that ordinary Americans rely on while of course, obviously, leaving untouched the loopholes that save Romney personally millions in tax -- notably the capital gains tax treatment of "carried interest". Result: billionaires pay less tax than ever, ordinary Americans pay more. That's why Romney and Ryan DARE NOT answer the obvious question: "you talk about abolishing tax loopholes. Which ones would you abolish?

2. Trashing the social safety net: Medicare, Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare"), Social Security, Veterans benefits and services, and the rest.

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