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Liberal group FL poll: Obama 47-Romney 45

A recent Florida poll of likely voters from Project New America and USAction, which appears to be a liberal union-leaning group, shows President Obama holding an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney 47-45%.

The group, which hired Grove Insight, to conduct the survey had polled last week in Florida as well and found Obama up 48-45%. Assuming the numbers are right (they didn't send cross tabs and this group is largely unknown), that suggests Obama got nothing out of the debate. The survey says it polled 40 percent Democrats, 40 percent Republicans and 20 percent independents (a decent Election Day model).

Here are excerpts of the polling memo:

* Seven percent are undecided right now. These uncommitted voters tend to like Obama (35% favorable, 26% unfavorable) more than Romney (20% favorable, 30% unfavorable).

*The gender gap has widened since our last poll on October 17-18. Women now provide the President a 13-point lead (52% Obama, 39% Romney) while men opt for Romney by 11 points (52% Romney, 41% Obama).

*Obama wins Independent voters right now (49% Obama, 33% Romney), though the race is close among white Independents (43% to 41%).

*While Obama is more likely to be thought to “understand the struggles middle class families face” by a wide, 13-point margin, the difference between the two when it comes to trusted decision making (+5 Obama) and calm, steady leadership (+3 Obama) are closer. Romney is also a bit more likely to be seen as “too willing to say or do anything to get elected” (+6 Romney).

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