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Mellman/Dem poll: Obama 49, Romney 47 in Florida

Polls are all over the map. RealClearPolics average puts it at Romney + 1.3 pecent n F. Pollster.com average has Fla 48-48. The latest from Democrats' Mellman group:

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of the likely November 2012 Florida electorate using a registration-based sample including cellphones and landlines. Eight hundred (800 interviews were conducted in English and Spanish October 24-27. The margin of error for the whole sample is +/-3.4% at a 95% level of confidence and higher for subgroups depending upon size.

Our latest poll shows President Obama gaining momentum in Florida and now leading Mitt Romney 49% to 47%, with the pool of undecided voters shrinking to just 4%. Among the 29% who have already cast their ballot, the President received the support of over half—topping Romney 51% to 47%. Last week the President was tied with his challenger.

President Obama continues to lead Romney among women (52%-44%), African-Americans (94%-1%), Hispanics (56%-39%) and 18-to-39 year-olds (62%-39%). More importantly, he maintains his edge among swing voters, who often decide closer to Election Day, with stable leads among registered independents (51%-43%) and self-described moderates (61% to 33%). In addition, Obama maintains a stronger image among independents, who give the president a 54% to 45% favorable/unfavorable rating, but split evenly 48% to 48% on Romney.


Posted by Adam C. Smith


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Nick Lefevre

Let's look at the polls that matter. For most of the campaign Romney didn't want to talk about his governorship in Massachusetts. Now, the newly etch-a-sketched Moderate Mitt (his own advior, Eric Fehrnstrom told us this was coming) claims he was a successful governor. Romney came in with a 55% approval rating. He left office with a 34% approval rating and no chance at reelection. Ah, you say, but that was deep blue Massachusetts. Romney's Republican predecessor in the governor's office in Massachusetts, William Weld, was reelected with 71% of the vote and left office with a 70% approval rating.


There is ZERO change this poll is accurate.

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