PPP FL poll: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Connie Mack looking like a goner)

From Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats

PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49/48, flipping the numbers from each of our last two polls of the state which found Romney leading by a point. Every poll PPP has conducted in the state since the first Presidential debate has found a one point race.

Obama's leading in Florida based on his strength with women (54/45), African Americans (89/10), and voters under 30 (55/39). Romney is strong with men (53/43), whites (57/39), and seniors (53/46). Romney also has narrow advantages with Hispanics (54/46) and independents (50/43).

Floridians actually trust Romney over Obama to deal both with the economy (50/46) and foreign policy (49/48) so something else is driving Obama's razor thin lead in the state. When asked to consider who won the debates as a whole voters pick Romney by a 47/46 margin, indicating that Obama's wins in the last two debates mostly made up for his overwhelming loss in the first one.

In Florida's Senate race incumbent Bill Nelson looks to have a pretty commanding lead heading into the final week of the campaign, 50/42 over Republican foe Connie Mack IV. Nelson's approval rating is on positive ground for the first time in quite a while at 44/41. Mack continues to be quite an unpopular candidate with only 36% of voters rating him favorably to 46% with a negative one. Nelson is winning independent voters 51/36 even as Obama is simultaneously losing them, and he's also taking 17% of the Republican vote.

Republican voters are slightly more enthusiastic than Democrats in Florida this fall with 72% of them saying they're 'very excited' to vote in the election to 68% of Democrats who say the same thing. It's a small difference but any little thing could matter in a state that's very closely divided at this point.

One final note: Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state 48/45.

This analysis is also available on our website: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/1-point-race-in-florida.html

 

Comments

[Carrington D.]

Why oh, why would Latinos vote for Romney? Romney wants to build that wall and wants to send all illegals back to where they came from regardless of how long they have been here, working here, created a family here. We need to stop the far right from their obvious discrimination and hatred of anyone that is not exactly like them. STOP ROMNEY TODAY!

[009topaids]

Connie Mack a goner? With just 1% behind? I think voters are finally waking up to the fact that Bill Nelson is largely responsible for our fiscal crisis. He has voted for every debt increase, and just about every big spending bill that has hit his desk. No wonder we are 16 trillion in debt and borrowing money from China.