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Survey USA FL poll: Obama 47-Romney 46. Has Mitt's momentum stopped?

 SurveyUSA today a virtual tie in the Florida presidential race, but a Democratic-leaning Project New America showed Obama up 48-45. And Zogby International, using an internet poll found Obama leading 48-42.

Since we know more of SurveyUSA (although Zogby used to conduct traditional live-call surveys for The Herald, here's their write up

In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 10/19/12, Barack Obama is a nominal, statistically insignificant, single point ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Romney is up 2 points, Obama is down 1 point. Florida's critical 29 electoral votes remain up for grabs, 18 days till votes are counted. Romney has gained ground in each of 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 07/20/12. Obama's once 12-point lead among Florida women has been reduced to 4 points. The contest is tied among men. Narrowly, Cubans vote Republican. Decisively, non-Cuban Hispanics vote Democrat. Voters under age 50 vote for Obama. Voters age 50+ vote for Romney. Whites vote for Romney 5:4. Moderates vote for Obama 5:4. Independents break 44% to 40% for Romney.

Voters with a high school education split 45% for each candidate. Voters with some college education split 47% for each candidate. Romney has a 5-point edge among those with a 4-year college degree. Obama leads among those who earn less than $80,000 a year. Romney leads among Florida voters who earn more than $80,000 a year. 4 of Florida's 5 regions break for Romney. Obama's advantage comes entirely from Southeast Florida, where he leads by 24 points. Obama has a Plus 3 Net Favorability today. Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability today.

In an election for United States Senator from Florida today, Democrat Bill Nelson gets 48% to 40% for Republican Connie Mack. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Nelson is up 1 point, Mack is up 4 points. Nelson had led by 11, now leads by 8. Nelson had led by 15 points in Central Florida, now leads by 1. Nelson had led by 14 among Independent voters, now leads by 6. Nelson had led by 37 points among political moderates, now leads by 23. There is offsetting movement among middle-income voters, where Nelson had led by 10, now leads by 15, and among seniors, where Nelson had led by 2, now leads by 10. Nelson has a Plus 9 Net Favorability in the state. Mack has a Minus 10 Net Favorability.

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PEter Schorsch

Nate Silver answers question I've been asking for a while: Should Obama concede Florida?



Obama's problem is that he is below 50% and most folks believe the country is on the wrong track.


#OBAMA 2012




No, David Jackson, you are totally wrong and naive to explain it in such a simple way. If your logic applies then every incumbent would have won re-election. You should give credit where credit is due!
Obama's advantage is what he achieved in a short time frame even though extremist right-wing voters lament he did not clean up the mess they and Bush left from 2000 - 2008 (8 years). Taken into account a stubborn and obstructive Republican congress between 2008-2012, Obama has achieved a lot:

1. Saved us from another great depression­­­­.
2. Passed equal pay for women.
3. Expanded eligibilit­­­­y for State Children's Health Insurance Fund (SCHIP)
4. Passed new benefits package for veterans.
5. Passed new credit card bill of rights.
6. Expanded loan programs for small businesses­­­­.
7. Ending war in Iraq.
8. Sent two additional brigades to Afghanista­­­­n to actually win the war.
9. Made greater investment in advanced military air technology­­­­.
10. Made U.S. military aid to Pakistan conditiona­­­­l on
anti-terro­­­­r efforts--o­­­­bviousl­y it worked.
11. Created a real National Infrastruc­­­­ture Protection Plan.
12. Appointed White House Coordinato­­­­r for Nuclear Security.
13. Granted Americans rights to visit family and send money to Cuba.
14. Released presidenti­­­­al records.
15. Provided affordable­­­­, high-quali­­­­ty child-care­­­­.
16. Rescued the American hostages from the pirates.
17. Rebuilding schools in NOrleans
18. Passed the new Start treaty.
19. Invested in new alternativ­­­­e energy.
20. Major investment in high speed rail.
21. Saved GM and Chrysler.
22. Saved the banks.
23. Created 14 straight months of private sector jobs growth.
24. Brought the stock market back from 6500, to 12,800.
25. Passed financial reform.
26. Passed healthcare reform.
27. Appointed first Hispanic Judge
28. Repealed DADT
29. Stopped the oil leak and got 20 billion from BP
30. Passed bill to save our teachers
31. Obama won respect from the world for America once again that got lost during the Bush regime

And he OBL and the heads of AQ, when bush had 8 years and failed.

President ‘s Government spending percent increases per year, Obama is the true outlier and hero who cut it down:
Reagan 82-85 8.7%
Reagan 86-89 4.9%
Bush 1 90-93 5.4%
Clinton 94-97 3.2%
Clinton 98-01 3.9%
Bush 11 02-05 7.3%
Bush 11 06-09 8.1 %
Obama 9-12 1.4%

Reagan had 10.8% unemployment, was 7% at this point in his first term. It reached a max of 10% under Obama, is now 7.8%. Reagan was reelected in a landslide.

keep this in mind; NO President has ever won while losing their home state. Mitt Romney appears set to not only lose his home state, but ALL 4 OF THEM (MA, NH, MI, and CA). Well, he can get to installing that car elevator and not worry his head over the 47% anymore

it does make one wonder WHY Mitt can't get re-elected in Mass. and he is behind 20 points in that state. Doesn't seem like the good people of Mass. were impressed with his empty promises. He spent all of his time as Governor out of the state, not attending to the needs of the people and instead gearing up to run for President.

Another strange phenomenon is also that Paul Ryan cannot even command his home state. This is the first US presidential election where the candidate and vice both don't command their own states. Very telling of their character and abilities. The people who know Romney and Ryan best are the people from their states. If they are being rejected, why should you vote for them?

Based on the arguments above, I will vote happily for Obama and Biden!

Steven Janiszewski

Blue collar moms used to be Democrats.  If Romney wins them over, he might win the election, which would be tragic. If he were elected, there would be no separation between Church and State. The USA would become a Mormon Nation. To gain an existential understanding of the cult that produced Mitt Romney, and to get your socks scared off, read The Assassination of Spiro Agnew, available in paperback and e-book on Amazon:


Its unwilling, part-Mexican Mormon assassin dramatizes the Mormon superiority complex, manifesting it as racism, sexism, jingoism and an anti-federal government temperament. His research in the new library reveals ominous similarities between Islam and Mormonism. The spiritual power behind the cult, which is not the Holy Ghost, acts out.

"With a clarity of language and vision unsurpassed in contemporary American prose, Steven Janiszewski's Assassination of Spiro Agnew takes us into a U.S. mazed with madness and Mormonism and all things Utah, a U.S. that was then and still is. Do we need a novel, even as brilliant as this one, about a young man on a divine mission to assassinate the Vice President because he is too liberal? Yes, now more than ever. Readers, welcome to a masterpiece."
Tom Whalen
Read The Assassination of Spiro Agnew.

Van Cliburn

I need someone to spell this out for me in simple terms that even a Labrador Retriever could understand. Why is it that so-called "Hispanic voters" are so heavily in favor of Mr. Obama (and Democrats in general, for that matter)? I keep hearing that for the most part "Hispanics" are religious (mostly Catholic), hard-working and family-oriented. Hispanic Americans are no less "American" than anyone else and our border & immigration laws are in place to protect the nation as a whole...i.e., ALL Americans...including those of "Hispanic" origin. The popular notion is that Republicans are more inclined to enforce border & immigration laws over Democrats.

It's fair to assume that Hispanic Americans (and I HATE such a broad-brush, stereotypical term, actually) are proud Americans like anyone else! Why would they (or members of any other ethnic group) be against the legitimate enforcement of laws that are intended to safeguard the rights, liberties and mutual responsibilities of all American citizens? And yes, I do believe that there are responsibilities associated with the rights and liberties bestowed upon us as citizens of this country...pursuant to our Constitution, as opposed to..."I'm entitled to such and such, but don't tell me what I can and cannot do in this country". What incentive would there be for ANYONE to strive to become an American citizen (legally) if there are no laws, common values, hurdles, etc., which in no way minimize who we are as individuals?

Robert Jenkins

Look this race is over. After the sermon, we got together and demanded the Women, tell us who they wanted to vote for. It was concluded that any Woman who votes for this President, will be removed from being active in the Church!!! Under this President; Women feel they are "all" impowered,and are no longer subservent to Men!!! That is clearly stated in any Bible one reads!!! "I" have my doubts about my Woman; so on election day "she" can't leave the house!!! That's the way to do it Men; take back the control "you've" lost and be a "man"!!! Otherwise, "our" whole society will be lost.

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