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SurveyUSA FL poll: Obama-Romney tied at 47%; Obama up with early vote, Romney up with Nov. 6 voters

We've been posting early and absentee-vote data (Democrats have a lead in ballots cast), and this poll is among the first that examines how those folks might vote. From SurveyUSA:

8 days until votes are counted in the election for President, the 5% of Florida voters who today are undecided will determine whether Mitt Romney or Barack Obama get the state’s critical 29 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Among Florida voters who have made up their minds, including a large number who have already returned a ballot, the contest is 47% Romney, 47% Obama.

Romney starts off 15 points in the hole: Obama leads 57% to 42% among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. But Romney leads by 13 points among the larger group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election Day. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, the candidates finish exactly even.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 11 days ago, which was conducted before the 3rd and final Presidential Debate, Romney is today up a nominal 1 point, Obama is flat. Today, Obama leads by 19 points in Southeast FL, but Romney leads in every other region of the state. Obama leads by 4 points among women, Romney leads by 5 points among men. Independents break 45% to 40% for Romney. Moderates break 51% to 41% for Obama. Romney leads among Florida’s white voters, is tied among Florida’s Cubans, and trails Obama among Florida’s other minority groups.

Romney leads by 18 points among seniors, who are the most reliable voters. This gives Romney an advantage heading into the final week of campaigning. If younger voters do not turn out in the numbers shown here, Obama will under-perform this poll.

More here


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Nick Lefevre

Romney avoided the subject of his governorship in Massachusetts for most of the campaign. Now the newly etch-a-sketched Moderate Mitt wants to tout it. There was a reason to avoid it. He left office after one term with an approval rating of 34% and no hope of reelection. You say it was because it's Massachusetts and he's Republican? His Republican predecessor, William Weld, was reelected with 71% of the vote and left office with a 70% approval rating.

Ryan Sharpe

New rules and regulations have killed nearly a million jobs in the country (http://eng.am/KP3Ruy). How many jobs could we have if we focused on enforcing the regulations already in place instead of just adding new job-killing ones?

Ryan Sharpe

The high turnout for early voting happened because people want change. Under the current administration, home values in Florida plummeted and the foreclosure rate has soared. Can the state afford for the market to remain this way – or even get worse?

David @ Engage America

Jobs are on the line this November. The current administration touts job growth, but the jobs that are being created are low paying, part-time jobs. In the retail and wholesale sector, a million full-time jobs have been cut since 2006, while more than 500,000 part-time jobs (http://1.usa.gov/Riud6o) were added.


Romney and Ryan have stated quite clearly that they are going to eliminate Social security as a government program and turn it over to the control of wall street bankers. Why on earth would any senior support this? The market crashes on average once every 20 years and if social security is in Wall Street's hands (making bankers filthy rich playing with senior's money) then one crash and every senior is bankrupted. Combine that with the wretched Medicare voucher system and every senior is toast. What's a voucher system? It means you pay out of pocket for all medical procedures. Then, are later reimbursed, however you won't be reimbursed what you paid, you are reimbursed what Ryan's panel previously determined was what your procedure SHOULD HAVE cost. So, if you paid $3,000 but Ryan's panel says it was only worth $2,000 then you will have lost $1,000 that you already laid out. Seniors and the disabled who rely on these programs cannot afford this kind of nonsense. Don't give Romney the chance to destroy our economy and ruin senior's lives! Vote for Obama or some other candidate who you believe in - but do NOT vote for Romney/Ryan.

Bea Kath

Voting early is one the best ways you can make sure your voice is heard. Under the current administration, the number of people on food stamps has grown from 33 million to 46 million. Another four years of that growth would give us 66 million – a staggering 20% of the US population -- on food stamps. We have entered a food stamp economy, not a growth and jobs economy.


I hope people voting early does not make people thing there is a trend. Under the current administration, home values in Florida plummeted and the foreclosure rate has soared. Sure the president inherited the crisis, but things are not much better and we can afford for the market to remain this way – or even get worse?

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