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With 1.6m Floridians having voted, Dems cut GOP absentee vote-lead in half in 1st early vote day

In just 12 hours of in-person early voting Saturday, Florida Democrats swamped the polls so heavily that they ran up a more than 39,000-vote margin over Republicans out of the nearly 300,000 votes that were cast at polling stations.

The Democratic vote was so big that it cut a Republican lead, built up during a month's worth of absentee-ballot voting, by about 60 percent. As of Saturday morning, Republicans were ahead of Democrats by nearly 66,000 absentee ballots cast, or 5 percentage points.

Factor in the day's worth of Democratic early voting, and that GOP lead is now just above 26,300, or 1.6 points. Add in Duval, whenever those numbers come in, and the GOP lead should be even smaller.

Here are the absentee and early vote ballots combined:

Party   Total votes      Total %         REP edge
REP     684,744 43%           26,310
DEM     658,434 41%
IND     262,516 16%
Total  1,605,694

 The early vote numbers:

Party    EV votes       EV%   DEM EV edge
DEM     145,470 49% 39,522
REP     105,948 35%  
IND       47,219 16%  
TOTAL     298,637    

 The absentee vote numbers:

Party AB votes      AB%     REP AB edge
REP     578,796 44%           65,832
DEM     512,964 39%  
IND     215,297 16%  
Total  1,307,057    

In the Democrats' favor: the eight days of early voting continues today. And It's the only Sunday of early voting, when African-Americans prefer to head to the polls after church for their "Souls to the Polls" rallies. The Legislature, in shortening the Democrat-heavy early voting days, eliminated the Sunday-before-Election Day early voting.

In South Florida, the biggest Souls to the Polls event is being spearheaded by the Rev. Victor Curry, who's the Miami-Dade leader of the National Action Network founded by MSNBC host and Rev. Al Sharpton. Sharpton and Curry led rallies yesterday, and they're doing it again today.

If, and it's an if, the vote is the same today as it was yesterday, there's a good chance Democrats will eliminate the Republican lead in ballots cast entirely. But it's unclear whether yesterday's heavier-than-ever early voting was just a reflection of those who want to vote in person at the first chance they get. Or is it a sign of Democratic momentum? Or is it both?

It's also unclear how many Democrats vote for Democrats and how many Republicans vote for Republicans. It's safe to say the 90 percent of partisans back their guy on the ballot, but North Florida Democrats often vote Republican. The independents** are the wild card.

Yesterday, the lines were long -- with wait times in some areas of up to six hours. Today's story about that is here.

This year, it's clear that Democrats, who typically ceded absentee-voting to Republicans, decided not to this year. So they trailed by 5 points instead of more than 15 points as they did in 2008, when Republicans cast more than 250,000 additional absentee ballots than Democrats. Democrats, in turn, cast more than 500,000 early votes in 2008 than Republicans.

But Obama won Florida then by just 236,450 votes (less than 3 percent) over John McCain, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 657,775, or about 36-42% (5.8 percentage points).

In 2012, that Democratic lead is down. They outnumber Republicans by 536,000, or about 36-40% (a 4.5 percentage-point lead). That's a drop of 122,000. Also, relative to 2008, Republican Mitt Romney is in a much better position than McCain in Florida and, unlike in 2008, Republicans are outspending Democrats on TV.

Another troubling sign for the Democrats: Their rolls grew only 1 percent. Republicans grew 4 percent while the overall voter rolls grew 6 percent to 11.9 million voters.

But the complexion of the state is changing and the Republican Party really isn't. Florida is becoming blacker and browner. But the GOP got whiter since 2008 by 4 percent, while the state’s white voter population increased just 2 percent overall.

Overall, since 2008, Hispanics have grown 22 percent on the voter rolls. But GOP Hispanics increased just 9 percent while the Democrats’ Hispanics increased 26 percent. Black voters overall grew by 10 percent in Florida, but decreased by 5 percent for the GOP and grew 9 percent for the Democrats.

The wild-card independents have grown the fastest on the voter rolls, 18 percent, to 445,000. And they've cast nearly 260,000 early and absentee votes (about 16 percent of the total). Polls indicate they're leaning Romney in Florida.

The most sought-after demographic, Hispanics, prefer to be independents. Hispanics increased the No Party Affiliation ranks by nearly 36 percent since 2008. Now number more than 513,000, outnumbering Republican Hispanics by nearly 37,000. There are still more registered Democratic Hispanics at nearly 645,000.

Polls show Hispanics prefer Obama. But white voters, who are still more than two-thirds of the electorate, like Romney.

Put it all together, and the data shows that the clearest aspect of this election in Florida is that we don't clearly know who will win it.

**Note: "Independents" is shorthand for those independent of the Republican and Democratic Party; 89% of registered independents are officially No Party Affiliation voters. All figures here are compiled from state elections data, some of which doesn't exactly jibe with county-reported data. The post was updated once Duval County posted its numbers (the tiny counties of Lafayette and Glades haven't yet). Still, the margins of error are relatively small


  Total votes     Total % REP edge
REP     674,025 43%           31,365
DEM     642,660 41%
IND     258,610 16%
Total  1,575,295

Comments

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artist

Yawn.

Obama is going to lose FL in a big way.

The new poll out shows him losing the I-r corridor by 6 pts and his lead in Miami-Dade is 9 down from *16* in 2008.

It's over.

Bubba Baxter

and Obamma says:
VOTE EARLY AND VOTE OFTEN...

artist

Typo: should be I-4 corridor.

Big daddy faust

Make sure to count those cemetary votes. You know how the dems love to wake the dead to vote and as often as they can. Watch for the zombie busses.lol obama lemmings stop at nothing!

harold_lloyd

Romney has been vague about his policy solutions because he rightly surmises that many of them will be quite unpopular. Yet once he becomes president, he will be forced to promote ideological commitments that are increasingly discredited with the public or risk losing political support within his own party. Romney, like Carter and Hoover, has argued that he will be an excellent administrator who will bring special problem-solving skills to the White House. But technocratic expertise is a tenuous strategy for maintaining political legitimacy, especially when a president must make unpopular decisions. Nor will it be enough to satisfy his base.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bg6S1HOo0j8

A. Yuma

How could anyone vote for Romney in Florida? Those on Medicare will get an immediate hit of over $600 that Obama had covered for them - plus preventative care. The rest will end up with massive Health Insurance bills and no coverage for pre-existing conditions, their kids under 26 kicked off of their plan. Worst of all the not so hidden agenda of Romney-Ryan is to destroy Medicare by offering vouchers that will have each senior paying over $6000 per year just to have coverage. WHO COULD VOTE FOR THAT? Combine that with cutting the Home Mortgage Deduction to give a massive tax break to multi-millionaires + 2 trillion more in military spending.. HOW COULD ANYONE VOTE FOR ROMNEY??

Lamont Sanford


If Mitt Romney was such a great Governor, why is he trailing President Obama by 25% points in the polls in Massachusetts? 47th in job creation while Gov. of Mass. is one reason.

GOBAMA!

Lamont Sanford

Mitt Romney's Motto: When Smoke Doesn't Work, Try Mirrors
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jerry-lanson/romney-election-2012_b_2031197.html

Romney will be president of his car elevators

AP Breaking News...

The AP is now ready to project that when all the votes are counted. Mitt Romney will be the winner of the State of Denial.

Try AGain in 2016 Mr.Rob from the people.

Preston Scott

Fact...a study (not a poll) released by the University of Colorado shows Romney will easily win the popular vote. http://www.campusreform.org/blog/?ID=4435 The study has used historical and economic data (nothing political) since its inception in 1980. The study has correctly picked the popular vote winner every election. Never missed. The odds of an electoral college winner is historically tiny. Anecdotal: the margin that Romney has a lead over Obama with men is almost historic; with women is even or close to even. You can dream all you want libs...Romney is not perfect, but he has experience that Obama still doesn't have after four years on the job. Besides...Obama is an unmitigated liar and when even David Letterman calls him on it it's obvious.

William Brown

THE 2 FACES of MITT..
Who is the real Mitt Romney? If given the chance, would Mitt 'DEFUND Planned Parenthood' or overturn Roe v Wade?? Did Mitt really meant what he said behind closed doors, that 47% of American are automatic supporters of Obama because they are dependent on the government and don't pay taxes, or was Mitt lying to his GOP Base at the "Fund Raiser"??... Does Mitt really has a Tax Policy which arithmetic, or a Tax Policy with random numbers that don't add up? Is Mitt a mild mannered Clark Kent, or is Mitt a mentally unstable David Banner?. Will Mitt explode on people like Gov Rick Perry when he get angry or can't win an argument, or turn the other cheek?......
Like father- like son: Why did the military dodger and coward (Tagg Romney) threatened to punch the President of the United States...Is Mitt Romney a flip flopper, or a liar?? Do Mitt like to hire people, or does Mitt like to FIRE PEOPLE? Did Mitt really bully and cut a homosexual hair, or did Mitt have ROMNESIA? Why didn't Mitt write a book to introduce himself like most presidential candidates? Why did Mitt abuse his dog, in a cage, on the roof of his car for 650 miles? Why did Mitt seal his Juvenile arrest record for destroying a private golf course, with blocks of ice ? Did Mitt really have a binder full of women, or a house full of boys who dodges the military? Why doesn't Mitt show more than 2 yrs of his tax returns, contrary to his father belief? Why did Mitt dodge the Vietnam War with "4 yrs of RELIGION Deferment", and only spent 2 years in France on a Mormon Religion Missionary Stay?

Coreyb8421

I'm curious - will all the people predicting a Romney blow out admit they were wrong if it doesn't happen or just claim that the election was stolen?

LesG

That's an easy answer, Coreyb8429. If you read all of the comments above by those pro-Romney people, it shows that they were lost in right wing fantasy land in the 2nd and 3rd grade when mathematics was taught. For everyone else who can add, multiply and divide in percentages, follow the results of the early voting. In most battleground states, early voting by all voters (Dems, Repubs & indeps.) has passed 25% by this weekend, and will more than likely be somewhere between 40% - 50% (depending on battleground state) by election day, with pro-Obama early voters outnumbering Romney early voters by 55% to 39%. That is what is happening right now in FL. (Note -- for all of you Romney supporters above, it would take a landslide of Romney votes on election day to reverse that lead. Ain't going to happen.) Despite all of the right wing polls that claim Dems voters are not enthusiastic, Dem's early vote is exceeding -- and in some states far exceeding -- the percent of all registered voters who are Democrats -- meaning that Dems are voting early, and Repubs/indeps are not.

Heyen

I voted yesterday(FL)so, please friends go out and vote, Florida started early voting yesterday.

Carmi Liz

Multiple Mitt, look up his record in Mass., he is losing there by a great number, hint he was not bipartisan, he took them from the 30's in job creation to 47th, not so good at creating jobs, basically quit & said he would not run for another term, he lied he never asked for names of women to hire, he & his opponent had to sign & agree to do that, he took off about a years time of vacation, he promised all the same stuff as he is promising now, just to get a vote. President Obama has not given up, even with all the GOP obstructionists he has had to deal with. Obama/Biden 2012

Carmi Liz

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/
Look at this poll.
Obama/Biden 2012

Severus

Artist

making up numbers is a conservative specialty

these are real numbers, we're leading, don't cry and piss in ur pants

cconcern person

Who can tell me why Obama nt deserve a second term? When he took over all the mess from Bish and hes doinghis best to clean up the mess.. lool at what is done sp far, if republicans stop harassing him on every decision maybe we can get things done. Bush started a war and Obama is trong tp clean up the mess..

cconcern person

Why do we as people of the world has to bad mouth each other when God is of Love? Mitt Romney has a juvenile record, lieing about his taxes, he sure dont know about foreign policies, we have been safe, look at the attacks recently on the United States, the attacks did not work thanks to the FBI, a young man was planning to blow up the federal resever bank, just take a long look people. OBAMA IS A GREAT PRESIDENT..VOTE FOR HIM, HE DESERVES YOUR VOTE..

jdahunt

You Obama voters can keep your head buried in the sand and not pay attention just like you did in the 2010 elections.

Obama is going to lose and it won't even be close.

When Obama conceeds and you are asking yourself why, just print off some of your posts and read them while looking into a mirror and then you will see exactly why Obama lost. The majority of voters today do not agree with your agenda and the way Obama has been running the country down the tubes the last 4 years.

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