With 2.3m Floridians having voted (a quarter of electorate?), Dems lead Reps by more than 41,000 ballots

The early and absentee-voting reports are in**and Democrats continue to roll up big margins over Republicans now that early voting, in its fourth of eight days, is underway. On Saturday and Sunday, Democrats wiped a lead that Republicans held with absentee ballots (which are typically mailed in).

As of this morning, Democrats' led by about 101,000 in early votes while Republicans had a more than 61,000-vote lead. Net Democratic advantage: more than 30,000 ballots. Monday marked the first day of non-weekend early voting, but there was an actual uptick in EV overall. (click here for yesterday's numbers and analysis. To see previous days, click the Florida Voters hyperlink)

Monday's heavy vote could be an anomaly (folks voting Monday because they rested Sunday or thought the polls would be too crowded). Or this could be a sign of the organization that the Obama campaign says it has. We'll see.

The numbers are big: 2.2 million people have already voted out of 11.9 million registered voters. If this presidential election is like the others, 75% of the registered voters will cast ballots. So instead of 18% of the electorate having voted, there's a chance it could be a quarter by now.

The early vote numbers:

Party	EV Total	%
DEM	391,238	48%
REP	290,368	36%
IND	133,698	16%
TOTAL	815,304

The absentee numbers:

Party	AB Total	%
REP	634,814	44%
DEM	574,122	40%
IND	240,563	17%
TOTAL	1,450,814

The totals

Party	EV/AB	%
DEM	965,360	43%
REP	925,182	41%
IND	374,261	17%
TOTAL	2,266,118

There's another measure of voting (or potential voting) to consider as well: outstanding absentee-ballot requests -- those people who have requested ballots and who have either not voted them or not yet mailed them back.

Party	ABs out	%
DEM	509,092	40%
REP	484,114	38%
IND	278,403	22%
TOTAL	1,271,609

**Note: This analysis relies on state data and two major counties, Duval and Palm Beach, weren't in this morning. Now they are and the post has been updated.

Comments

[george gonzalez]

Gap is absentee ballots down to 4% now? in 2008 R's had 17% lead in this...Dem's have eaten into this...luck or Obama GOTV effort?

[Dan Marino]

Crickets from the Rombots lately. LMAO.

[DCD5279]

LOL@Dan. I was wondering the same thing. What happened to the daily breakdown of votes from the top 15 counties?

[LesG]

What happened to the idea promoted by the media and the old-line polling groups that Repubs were all fired up and chomping at the bit to kick Obama out of the White House? For the past 2 mos, its been a constant refrain -- Repubs are much more "enthusiastic" to vote than Dems. Well, FL now joins other battleground states Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina in Dems leading Repubs (by margins of betw 2%-18% depending on the state) in early voting. And the percent who are voting early now ranges from a quarter to a third of all registered voters. By election day, the estimate is that betw 40-50% of all regis voters will already have voted, with Obama with a substantial lead among those early voters. Let's see how "enthusiastic" those Repub voters really are in voting on election day.

[Ryan Sharpe]

The high turnout for early voting happened because people want change. Under the current administration, home values in Florida plummeted and the foreclosure rate has soared. Can the state afford for the market to remain this way – or even get worse?

[LesG]

Re: Ryan Sharpe Check the statistics again on WHO is actually voting early. In Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina & now FL, more (in some states MANY more) Dems are voting early than Repubs. According to this news article, that is now the case in FL.

In most battleground states, the number of registered voters who have already voted is in the 30-35% range, with still a wk left for early voting. Most estimates are that early voting in battleground states will account for betw 40% - 50% of all registered voters in those states. Are you saying that Dems are voting early in FL in greater numbers because they want "change" in who runs the Fed. Govt?? That is a weird assumption, especially since recent polling of those who have ALREADY voted in battleground states (inc. FL) shows that those early voters favor Obama over Romney 54% to 39%.

[Brian m.]

Romney will win this election In a landslide....just wait and see.

[JDS]

Uh folks there is NO WAY this pitiful lead holds on election day. Get ready for President Romney and Obama will join the ranks of Jimmy Carter.

[SAR]

In 2008, the split of early votes (absentee + in-person) was D46, R37 (D+9) and Obama won the state by 3 points.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

So the current D43, R41 (D+2) split is not particularly favorable for Obama.

[adam]

The high level of early voting is because this is such a critical election. Your take home pay, the money you earn working, will decrease dramatically if the current administration remains in office thanks in large part due to the ACA, one of the largest tax hikes in American history.

[Tim]

Plus Romney has a big lead with Independents so this poll is very favorable to Romney. People do see that right? Republicans only down 2 points while Independents make up 17% of the early voting. This is a great sign for Romney.

[Seth Hurwitz]

Party identification is fluid. Romney leading among "independents" largely means he's beating Obama with people who formerly identified as Republicans. I wouldn't be surprises if many Tea Partiers identify as independent, especially in Florida where you have a very unpopular Republican Governor.

[David @ Engage America]

With so many important issues at stake it is important that everyone votes. When voting, people need to understand that Medicaid and Medicare are going bankrupt and the current administration has done nothing to fix them.

[Bea]

This state could decide the election. Medicaid and Medicare are going bankrupt and the current administration has done nothing to fix them. If you are 65, by the time you hit ,70 don’t count on those benefits.