« Miami-Dade will allow in-person absentee voting at its election headquarters Sunday | Main | UPDATED Miami-Dade resumes in-person absentee voting after temporary shutdown »

4.3 million Florida early ballots in, Dems extend lead over GOP to 133,000 pre-Election Day votes

More than 4.3 million Florida votes are already in before Election Day and Democrats used the last full official day of in-person early voting to extend their lead over Republican ballots cast by 133,000, according to this morning's figures.

In all, about 36 percent of registered voters have cast ballots and about 48 of likely voters have.

That means wait times at polling stations on Election Day will be much shorter than the early vote wait times that have plagued South Florida for the past eight days. Tens of thousands of more early votes, by way of absentee ballots, are still flowing in and a few thousand (but not tens of thousands) more will come by way of in-person absentee ballots cast at some election supervisors' offices in select counties, such as Miami Dade (more here on that).

Early voting was shortened in 2012 compared to 2008, and the numbers are smaller.

According to George Mason University's United States Elections Project (which tracks early voting) about 2.6 million in-person early votes were cast in 2008 over 14 days in Florida. This year, after the GOP-led Legislature and Republican Gov. Rick Scott cut the days to eight, it's 2.3 million. But absentee ballot voting is stronger. In 2008, 1.7 million cast absentee ballots and this year the number is 2 million.

Guess which type of voting Republicans specialize in? Absentee ballots. Democrats do better at in-person early voting. Though more fraud-prone, absentee ballot voting wasn't touched in the election law Scott signed that shortened early voting days.

In all, Republicans have cast 87,000 more absentee ballots than Democrats. Democrats have cast 220,000 more in-person early votes.

Using the GMU numbers (and there are other numbers that differ from them), Democrats had a cumulative lead as high as 363,000 ballots in 2008, or about 8 percentage points. Now, that Democrat lead has been cut to 3 points, or 133,000 -- and not just because of the shortened early voting period.

There's a sense of diminished Democratic enthusiasm for the president compared to 2008. And the Democrats actually lost more voters between 2008 and 2012 than Republicans and the Democratic Party grew at a slower pace (this was before Scott's voter bill was signed in 2011). Our latest analysis of those 2008 voters who remain on the rolls now shows the Democrat early ballot/pre-Election Day lead would be only 282,000 if the presidential election four years ago were held with the current electorate.

Also of note: a Miami Herald poll indicated Romney gets more crossover votes than Obama and is winning the early vote anyway.

Here are today's numbers for early votes:

Party             EV total            %
DEM          1,052,061 46%
REP             831,456 36%
IND             414,889 18%
Total          2,298,406

Absentee votes:

Party            AB Total             %
REP             871,239 43%
DEM             784,117 39%
IND             355,824 18%
Total          2,011,180

Cumulative EVAB totals

Party          EVAB total            %
DEM          1,836,178 43%
REP          1,702,695 40%
IND             770,713 18%
Total          4,309,586

For other posts on the EVAB numbers and voting issues, click here

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

artist

Buh bye, Ogabe.


Mitt wins FL by more than 5.

Mike

Oh, and Marc,
In 08, The President won early vote by about 260k votes and won Florida by 230k in 08.
He lost election day in 08 by 30k, total= 230k+.
The numbers don't lie, and you are leaving important data out, to fit your RNC conclusions!

Mike

Everyone,
Marc Caputo deleted my first comment I had, detailing his biased reporting and talking points from the RNC.
Thus, whatever happened to free speech? Not in Republican world, aye Marc.
The fact is, their is no enthusiasm gap, Its a pushed talking point from the RNC.

Mike

Also, the first swing state has just been called for the president due to overwhelming early vote totals-

http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/obama-will-win-state-heller-will-barely-squeak-horsford-takes-cd4-and-gop-will-take-state#.UJa_boF5mc0

Ooooops!

Thomas

If the rest of the country votes like Florida has this could get ugly for Romney. Of all the swing states Florida was supposed to be safe Romney. Obama is adding votes every day. Led by 260K in 2008 when the polls opened in 2008 in Florida. Romney is going to have to win the independent vote by 20% or more to offset the Obama lead in 2012. Worse for Republicans is they did such a good job of getting people out early that the traditional "GOP Votes in numbers on election day" will have to be down. These early numbers show the GOP greatest fear. DEMS aren't staying home in the numbers they anticipated. You're seeing it in Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina.

TheLastBrainLeft

These numbers pretty much lock up FL for Romney. The disparity in the early vote alone wipes out most of Obama's margin of victory from '08. The GOP will handily win the vote on election day. I think the only question now is if that means anything for Mack. Will it carry him to victory?

Efe

I already called Nevada and Iowa for Obama since 2 days ago, and im a hundred percent confident of those, im watching Ohio and NH closely, Ohio more for the voter supression and NH for voter turn out. if what is happening in FL happens in NH, Romney can kiss this election good bye. because one of florida or virginia is going Obamas way.

LesG

Re: Mike Comment

I have been reading Marc Caputo's blog for the past few days, and verify your comment. His articles reporting on the status of early voting has been consistently anti-Obama, with snarky digs about how unenthusiastic the Dem vote is, and how Latinos in Dade are going overwhelmingly for Romney, and how Romney will win the state handily. All this while reporting about PB, Broward & Dade polling centers clogged with Dem voters, waiting in lines for 3, 4, 5 hrs. I don't know what his story is, but notice that the vast majority of comments to his blog are from right wing nuts, Repubs, Romneybots, Obama haters all proclaiming that what Marc is reporting verifies their fantasy that Mitt's going to win FL with 300,00+, 500,000, etc.

Marc never talks about the percentages -- either of people voting -- or of Dems voting, Repubs voting, indeps voting. BTW -- Marc's reference to the Miami Herald's poll of Dem crossovers to Romney is a case in point. That poll is way out of play with almost all of the other polls taken during the past 2 mos in FL. Romney is getting about 8% of Dem vote, Obama is getting about 7% of the Repub vote according to all of these other polls. And that Dem to Romney crossover is mainly in the NE part of the state near Geogia. The Dem crossover vote in the South, where the huge wave of Dem votes have been cast in early voting, is more in the 3-4% range, while the Repub crossover to Obama in South FL remains in the 6-7% range.

I saw Marc Caputo on TV the other day, and was equally unimpressed. His knowledge seems to be based on whatever info the Miami Heralf feeds him. Too bad -- when Obama wins the state by somewhere betw 75K and 100K votes, he will have alot of egg on his face. And all of the various right wing nut jobs & Repubs that comment on his blog can go back to their homes and continue to hate Obama for the next four yrs, while the US moves forward.
e

TheLastBrainLeft

Romney will win Ohio and Iowa. The early voter data released all but assures it.

LesG

Re: The LastBrainLeft

You continue to show that you live in wing nut Fantasyland. The early vote in Franklin & Cayuhoga Counties (Cleveland & Columbus -- both big Obama metro areas) show that a turnout of all regis voters in the high 35-40%, with Dem turnout approaching 45-50%. Numbers matter. In both areas, there are way more Dems than either Repubs or indeps. If many more Dems are coming out to vote than Repubs or indeps, then Dems have the numerical margin in votes.

Oh, and Repub early vote turnout in many of the Repub counties in OH is roughly in the mid teens to mid 20's % range --- well below the boasting estimates given by the Romney campaign. Where's all that vaunted Repub enthusiasm.

As for Iowa -- almost 40% of all Regis voters have already voted in Iowa, and Dem votes are roughly 43% of all votes cast so far, Repub votes are 32% of all votes cast so far, and indeps (who in Iowa oddly seem to be more pro--Obama than pro-Romney, according to recent Iowa polls) make up the remaining 25% of the early vote. BTW -- that is about what the split is of all Iowa registered voters, so its unlikely to change much on Tues.

The expectation for Iowa is that another 5% or so of early vote has already been cast but not yet reported, with the percentages expected to stay about the same. So, roughly 45% of regis voters in Iowa will have already voted by Tues polling., and only another 30-35% of regis voters will actually vote ON Tues.

LastBrainLeft -- you need to either wake up & research accurate info on early voting and registered voters, or you should change your handle to "NoBrainLeft."

Severus

Buh bye, Ogabe.


Mitt wins FL by more than 5.

what a racist comment, 'artist'

bye bye, hell dweller

I know conservatives failed 1st grade math, but you're Romney +5 conclusion is just failing preschool math.

Severus

Romney will win Ohio and Iowa. The early voter data released all but assures it.

*Sigh* Another GOP idiot who failed 1sty grade math.

Romney is down 5 points in Ohio and Iowa.

In early voting Dems lead by 10 points in actual data with 40% of the votes cast in Iowa. In Ohio, Dems lead by 27 points with 30% of the votes cast.

Go back to 1st grade math.

You're just making a fool of yourself.

Joe

We are watching you!

David

I would like to add to the absentee in-person ballot alluded to in the article, early voting has been extended in through today in Winter Park (Orange county) due to an issue at that precinct yesterday. So the numbers aren't completely fixed yet.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/04/florida-early-voting-lawsuit_n_2072435.html

Ray Martino

President Obama wil win so: 50% Obama, 47% Romney. The president will win over 300 delegates. Was easy; simple like that.

The comments to this entry are closed.