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About 4 million early FL ballots cast -- and growing. Ds leading Rs by 104,000

About 4 million early votes were cast by Floridians by Saturday morning, the last day of early voting, which looks like it will be a heavy-turnout day.

Democrats have steadily increased their margins, leading Republicans now by about 187,000 early in-person ballots cast as of this morning. Republicans led Democrats by 84,000 absentee ballots cast.

Net Democratic advantage: 104,000, a lead that grows with each day of early voting.

Total number of early voters through Friday: More than 353,000. That's more than 2 million ballots cast in a week.

Republican Gov. Rick Scott has refused to extend early voting into the Sunday before Election Day, an early vote time that he and the GOP Legislature specifically eliminated after President Obama in 2008 turned out massive numbers of Democrats to help beat Republican John McCain. Scott's law also shortened early voting days from 14 to eight and, relative to the extra hours approved by then-Gov. Charlie Crist in 2008, has effectively ensured that urban Democratic counties, such as those in South Florida, have a cumulative 24 fewer hours to vote compared to four years ago.

Turnout this year has hit record highs during early voting, which haven't been glitch-free (for background on turnout issues and other early and absentee ballot data click this Florida Voters link to access past posts).

The number of total early voters is so high that there's a chance almost 50 percent of the electorate will have voted before Election Day (there are 12 million registered voters, but about 75 percent -- or 9 million -- typically show). Right now, about 44 percent of the 9 million likely voters have already cast their ballots.

Our latest poll shows President Obama is losing Florida overall to Mitt Romney, 45-51 percent. But Obama is carrying South Florida. And if South Florida overperforms on Election day (along with urban Democratic-heavy counties like Orange and Hillsborough), he can certainly carry Florida.

The early vote numbers:

Party         EV Total             %
DEM         928,205 46%
REP         740,674 37%
IND         357,750 18%
Total       2,026,629

Absentee votes:

Party          AB Total            %
REP         821,394 44%
DEM         737,620 39%
IND         328,736 17%
Total       1,887,750

Total early votes:

Party    Early Totals             %
DEM       1,665,825 43%
REP       1,562,068 40%
IND         686,486 18%
Total       3,914,379



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You can hear the sadness in Marc Caputo's post conceding Romney is up 6 in their poll. How much would you bet that if Obama was winning they wouldn't have a path to victory for Romney.

Marc is going to be sad on election night!


This does not bode well for Democrats. Given the way Romney leads with indies and the # of crossover votes he will get, and the fact that Romney will destroy him on Election Day voting, Obama will need an unbelievable number of reliable Dems to turn out today.


obama will win,because of his Good works


You are running scared. What does not bode well for dems? Numbers are numbers. You are nervous, aren't ya?


I hate to break this to Republicans, but you are going to see a huge uptick in Democratic ballots tomorrow. If you don't believe me just go to the Orange County website to see the margin from this last day of early voting there. Hillsborough too. The Democrats should net an additional 40 to 50 thousand votes tomorrow and will go into election day with a nice cushion.

Oh and by the way Iran has agreed to stop enriching uranium, so there goes the Jewish vote.

SC Guy

I think that Mason-Dixon knows what they're talking about when they make their final prediction for a race in home turf Florida. They accurately predicted Obama would win in 2008 (almost to the percentage point) and they accurately predicted George W. Bush would carry FL in 2004 (almost to the percentage point). They also were very accurate in the mid-terms of 2006 and 2010. I believe that Obama is going to lose Florida and (hopefully) the 2012 election.


Marc is going to be sad on election night!


His tears will be delicious.


If you could see the long lines of likely Democrats waiting to vote in Miami Dade, you would be running scared !

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