« Miami Herald FL Poll: Romney 51%-Obama 45% | Main | NBC FL poll: Obama 49- Romney 47 »

Miami Herald FL Poll: Romney 51%-Obama 45%

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

Romney is winning handily among men, marginally losing with women voters and has outsized support among non-Hispanic whites. He’s essentially winning on the issues as well: the economy, Medicare, foreign policy and looking out for the middle-class.

Coker noted the poll results are essentially unchanged from last month, when Romney led by a point more after he crushed Obama in their first debate.

The October poll and this one, which have error margins of 3.5 percent, were conducted for The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald as well as the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.

Although the latest survey shows Romney comfortably ahead 51-45 percent in Florida, the Republican can’t rest easy. Other polls show a tighter race, although they use a different method of polling than that of Mason-Dixon, a Florida-based firm.

Obama’s campaign has been turning voters out in force during the eight-day, in-person early-voting period that ends Saturday at 7p.m.

The voting is heaviest in liberal Southeast Florida, where Obama hopes to juice up urban turnout in a Sunday visit to Hollywood where he’ll be joined by Miami rapper Pitbull.

Meantime, the Obama campaign has successfully fought to close the traditional lead held by Republicans when it comes to absentee ballots, which are typically cast by mail.

Add all the absentee and in-person early-vote numbers together, and Democratic voters cast 76,000 more early ballots than Republicans as of Friday morning.

Across Florida, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 4.5 percentage points — about the same margin as the proportion of respondents in this poll.

Most early voters are among the most partisan and politically active, and are more likely to vote the party line. But the poll indicates that Obama isn’t winning the combined absentee and early in-person vote, though he’s doing worse when it comes to the mail-in ballots.

“Obama’s strategy in Florida is turnout, turnout, turnout. He’s not really tailoring or changing his message just for Florida,” Coker said. He said first lady Michelle Obama, who came to Florida on Thursday, delivered a message that he summed up as: “Get all your friends, get out and vote … get out the vote, get out the vote, get out the vote.”

But not all Democratic votes go to Obama and not all of the Republican votes accrue to Romney, the poll shows.

Story here

Download FL1112Poll


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.


BBbbbbbbut FL is a swing state!


Romney landslide.


Obama can lose Florida and still win the election comfortably.


Obama landslide.


funny, even if Obama wins reelection it looks like Romney will carry Florida by a margin larger than many recent years. Remember when the Dems thought Medicare would kill Romney here.


"romney landslide" ... lol

what's it like there in bizarro world?


Romney may win the state. But too many other polls show it a much tighter margin so it won't be a blowout. And here's the sad news for Romney supporters. Florida isn't the battleground state it once was (to the reief of many Americans). Even with a win in Florida Romney might want to start looking for a job come November 7th.

Leather Neck

Romney Tsunami is more like it. Why would Obama get re-elected? Is it because the high unempolyment? Or Record debt? Or maybe it is because of the record foreclosures, or trade deficit, or dobling of gas prices? I know! It's because of his OUTSTANDING handling of Benghazi! That's why he's going to... yeah, I can't even get that one out without bursting in laughter. :-))


Rommey landslide victory!

Marvin Sweet

I know a lot of democrats, most of them are more like Romney than the far left wing Obama is sucking up to. Most of them say they have had it with Obama, Romey is a better democrat than Obama, Obama is a true Socialist and as James Carville once said "It's the economy stupid". Many times we change to democrat in the off year to nominate the ones we want to face off with, then we dump them on there head for our guy, worked great in 2010,LOL. Don't forget the independents. Go Romney/Ryan.

Marvin Sweet

Just who would King Obama work with in a second term? The congress is republican controled and is most likley to stay that way. Obama has poisoned the well as far as ever getting anything done with them, He's screwed if he does slip by,Lame Duck for 4 more years and he may be impeached when the Benghazi cover up is all in and done.


Wow! Floridians prefer "PLASTIC"?? I'd better change my vacation plans.

Hank Rearden

Hey, Molson,
I don't think Romney needs to look for work, he could retire many times over and vacation the world easily. It's surprising that Romney would even want the job, the US is in HUGE financial trouble! Thinking about it Americans should be happy and thankful that Mitt would want the job to fix the country. Romney is uniquely qualified and has a long track record of success, so as an American I'm thankful that Mitt wants the job.


Vote for Obama. Economic growth is bad for the environment. Obama will prevent economic growth.


Look inside the numbers, Obama groundgame has turned out vastly higher numbers of 1st time voters & sporadic voters turnout even with the limitations of less days/hrs than 2008 will likely equal or exceed.Dems have cut the historical advantage in Absentee Ballots.

Early in person votes:Dems lead by more than 200k (not counting Saturday's numbers)& Friday/Saturday numbers of Polk,Lafayette & Okaloosa counties.(Only Okaloosa county has a Republican plurality in early voting.

In AB/EV combined votes: Democrats 37.1% Republicans:36.8% Independents:24.8% of registered voters.
It will be close on Tuesday,supposed lack of Democrat enthusiasm hasn't been evident,if it continues on Tuesday, Obama will win.If not, Romney will carry Florida,but probably still lose the Electoral College.


Crow, it's what's for dinner.

The comments to this entry are closed.