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Miami Herald FL Poll: Romney 51%-Obama 45%

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

Romney is winning handily among men, marginally losing with women voters and has outsized support among non-Hispanic whites. He’s essentially winning on the issues as well: the economy, Medicare, foreign policy and looking out for the middle-class.

Coker noted the poll results are essentially unchanged from last month, when Romney led by a point more after he crushed Obama in their first debate.

The October poll and this one, which have error margins of 3.5 percent, were conducted for The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald as well as the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.

Although the latest survey shows Romney comfortably ahead 51-45 percent in Florida, the Republican can’t rest easy. Other polls show a tighter race, although they use a different method of polling than that of Mason-Dixon, a Florida-based firm.

Obama’s campaign has been turning voters out in force during the eight-day, in-person early-voting period that ends Saturday at 7p.m.

The voting is heaviest in liberal Southeast Florida, where Obama hopes to juice up urban turnout in a Sunday visit to Hollywood where he’ll be joined by Miami rapper Pitbull.

Meantime, the Obama campaign has successfully fought to close the traditional lead held by Republicans when it comes to absentee ballots, which are typically cast by mail.

Add all the absentee and in-person early-vote numbers together, and Democratic voters cast 76,000 more early ballots than Republicans as of Friday morning.

Across Florida, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 4.5 percentage points — about the same margin as the proportion of respondents in this poll.

Most early voters are among the most partisan and politically active, and are more likely to vote the party line. But the poll indicates that Obama isn’t winning the combined absentee and early in-person vote, though he’s doing worse when it comes to the mail-in ballots.

“Obama’s strategy in Florida is turnout, turnout, turnout. He’s not really tailoring or changing his message just for Florida,” Coker said. He said first lady Michelle Obama, who came to Florida on Thursday, delivered a message that he summed up as: “Get all your friends, get out and vote … get out the vote, get out the vote, get out the vote.”

But not all Democratic votes go to Obama and not all of the Republican votes accrue to Romney, the poll shows.

More here

Comments

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Jesus

Romney es el diablo. Él nos hará daño. Votar por Obama en Florida. Es importante para nosotros. Por favor, vote.
Romney es el diablo. Él nos hará daño. Votar por Obama en Florida. Es importante para nosotros. Por favor, vote.
Romney es el diablo. Él nos hará daño. Votar por Obama en Florida. Es importante para nosotros. Por favor, vote.
Romney es el diablo. Él nos hará daño. Votar por Obama en Florida. Es importante para nosotros. Por favor, vote.

sandy

America take a good look at this morman man and what he stands for, lies,war, increasing wealth for the top 1%.
The man cannot even keep his stories the same a compulsive liar desparate to win at all costs.

SC Guy

Very glad to see this poll. It's worthwhile to note that Mason-Dixon was very accurate in their final Florida polls in 2008 and 2004, accurately predicting Obama and Bush wins, respectively. Deep down inside, I think we all know Mitt Romney is leading in Florida but it helps to have someone spell it out for us.

CMartel2

"America take a good look at this morman man and what he stands for, lies,war, increasing wealth for the top 1%.

I think more Americans are looking at 16-trillion dolllars in debt, promises for further increased government outlays, and business regulations for miles without jobs to boot.

So you go worry about "Mormans" (fyi: it's Mormon--and they're some of the kindest peope you'll ever meet on the whole). Mature adults value individual liberty, personal accountability, and limited government / private ingenuity. And religious freedom, even for "Mormans."

rm

NO a Chavez, NO a Castro NO al Beraco Bama

Christopher Garcia

I am lovin' to see ROMNEY WINNING... GO MITT ROMNEY because LATINOS NEED JOBS and a better economy!!!!!

gocanes1

Much rather have the Mormon then the Moron

Laura Martinez de Richelieu

Estoy muy muy triste que Romney no ha ganado .
I'm really really sad that Romney didn't win .
Je suis très très triste que Romney n'est pas gagné .
I simply share your tears .

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