« With 4.5m votes in, election could be half over in FL. A look at the white, black and brown early vote | Main | Voting in Florida off to a smooth start, Detzner says »

Stats guru: Obama has 52% chance of winning FL, Romney 48%

The computer model of the New York Times statistics guru, Nate Silver of the Five Thirty Eight blog, indicates President Obama has a 52 percent chance of winning Florida, without which Mitt Romney can't win the presidency.

Basically, it's a coin toss election. And already, up to half of the vote is in. More here on that.

538 FL



Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.


It is odd, I think that Florida only matters to Romney. As if he loses Florida; he has no chance of winning the Presidency. I do though predict; a very serious problem in many counties.I think it will take weeks to determine who actually wins our 29 electorol votes. Once again, I believe Floriduh; will go to the Supreme Court of the United States. This time, though; a prescident(unlike the last time) must be set. otherwise, it all comes down to who has the most money, and who is willing to pay for the office.


Today is the day of everything :)


Even with Scotts attempts at votet suppression, it shows Obama ahead...What an arrogant ass!


A flawed analysis. Each election cycle is different. In 2012---the D early voting turnout is down 5%. Moreover, the undecided and independent vote has gone to Romney by a 2-1 margin. Finally, the Republican turnout is far better than it was in 2008--and even then McCain won Florida on votes cast on electio day. The bottom line: Romney has a 75% chance of winning Florida.

The comments to this entry are closed.