« Miami-Dade's absentee-ballot count concludes, with three other Florida counties still going | Main | UPDATED Florida teachers union asks Gov. Rick Scott to halt evaluations with student test scores »

Why Obama wins Florida

Though votes are still being tallied, President Obama is all but assured a victory in Florida because the lion’s share of the outstanding ballots come from Democratic-heavy counties.

Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 58,055 votes — or 49.92 percent to 49.22 — but there just aren’t enough votes from Republican areas to allow the challenger to catch up.

Romney’s Florida campaign has acknowledged their candidate lost in Florida as well. Romney already conceded the national race after he lost the other battleground states.

“The numbers in Florida show this was winnable,” Brett Doster, Florida advisor for Romney, said in a statement to The Miami Herald. “We thought based on our polling and range of organization that we had done what we needed to win. Obviously, we didn’t, and for that I and every other operative in Florida has a sick feeling that we left something on the table. I can assure you this won’t happen again.”

With Florida’s 29 Electoral College votes, Obama will have 332 votes to Romney’s 206.

“We feel we will be the official winner in Florida later [Thursday],” Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said. Preliminary results are due from the counties to the state by noon Saturday. The final results are to be certified Nov. 20.

The numbers in Florida look unlikely to change in Romney’s favor.

Miami-Dade finished tallying a backlog of 54,000 absentee ballots Thursday and it marginally increased Obama’s lead.

Still outstanding:

• Broward County. It has about 8,000 absentee ballots outstanding. Obama won Broward 67-32 percent. If those numbers hold, it would give Obama 2,800 more votes.

• Palm Beach County. It could have as many as 8,000 votes yet to add to its tally. Obama won that county 58-41 percent. If those numbers hold, Obama would pick up another 1,360 more votes.

• Duval County. The only non-South Florida County, Duval has about 3,600 absentee ballots to be counted. Romney won it narrowly, 51-48 percent. At that rate, Romney would pick up only 108 more votes.

Even if the estimates from South Florida were reversed and Obama’s extra projected votes were handed to Romney, the Republican would come nowhere near to winning.

The wild card: Provisional ballots. These are cast by voters whose status is in doubt. Often they’re rejected, in part because people vote in the wrong precinct. Most studies show, however, that provisional ballots are more likely to be cast by Democrats than Republicans.

** This post is updated

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

candide

The GOP and the criminal governor of Florida tried to steal the election. It backfired. Time for Floridians to wake up and throw the conniving, racist bums out. But elect a criminal to be your governor and what do you expect?

Jimbo

Yup.

Rick Scott and the GOP tried outlawing registration organizations.

Rick Scott and the GOP tried reducing the early voting days.

Rick Scott and the GOP tried putting amendments on the ballot that would draw out Republicans and evangelicals.

Rick Scott and the GOP tried a "voter purge" to disqualify minority voters.

RICK SCOTT AND THE GOP FAILED! All your tricks couldn't overcome the will of the people.

Well done Florida! And in two years, make sure to vote against Rick Scott, too.

Janet

Rick Scott, the GOP and his teaparty need to go!

Dmajor

Oh my lord! Still counting? At least please tell me there's not still some poor schmucks still waiting online to vote!

Overtown D

Very Proud of my South Fla People! I'm up here in Atlanta but I'm from Miami. This state has not progressed as much as Fla has. There is Atlanta then there is GA. Two different worlds. Well done Fla. Oh BTW can you just go and help Palm Beach Co. get ready NOW!for the next election.

Dr. Alden Franks

Well, dangle my chad and call me turd-blossom, I guess FL is purple after all.

Mcokefl

I live in Florida and I have my eye on Rick Scott. I hope we don't forget this outrage. There is no way the people will let them get away with this. Proud of the people here.


Arturo

Revenge!

azrn

Isn't it an embarassment to Fl that they are the ONLY state that still hasn't pledged its electoral college votes? It looks like they are so reluctant to go for Obama that they'll drag their heels -- to go along with their knuckles, no doubt.

It's obvious that they don't want to acknowledge the changing demographics of their state. Thus far, their responses to the fact that some very populous counties vote Democratic have been to not put in place the proper polling facilities & staff to deal with the large turnout, supress voting when & where possible, design misleading ballots, impede voting by closing polling places for fear of "mobs" and count ballots slower than molasses in winter.

I thought florida was known for oranges, not bananas and nuts.

casualobserver

The I-4 corridor is a demographically changing at a quick pace and D's got very high turnout in Miami-Dade. The "purpling" of Florida is here to stay.

Rs need to find a way to become competitive with non-Caucasians, as well as the under 30 age group. But that is a challenge for Rs well beyond just Florida.

casualobserver

By the way, for those of you railing against Rick Scott on this voting snafu......just look up the supervisors of elections for the 3 counties......and let me know if you see the picture of a bald white man in charge in any of these slow-counting counties.

Learn something about how elections are administered and funded and then throw your stones.

Linda

Why do S FL vote counters count absentee ballots so slowly? Do they do it in several languages?

You didn't.

Where are all the confident Romney supports in this thread? I thought they were going to win.

B. Tillman

I live in California, and even from here I could see voter suppression in the Sunshine State. I PRAY Charlie Crist will run against that alien Rethug criminal and get him the hell out of the Governorship in 2014. UGH, I feel so sorry for you guys out there in Florida. Unfortunately, the electorate (NOT ME) here in California was fooled by That philandering, wide-foot, barely English-speaking Schwarzenegger and Poor Gray Davis was recalled. Well Ahnold came IN messing up California. Thank God he's gone now but that idiot didn't stop until he left a pile of DEBT for us here in California. That clown grew more and more unpopular as time went on. When he left, he was ULTRA unpopular and oddly enough, a statewide poll was commissioned after he left office, and he couldn't beat the man he replaced--Gray Davis--if he had run against him. Sad the people in my state put that pig into office in first place. Meg Whitless, like Linda McMahon thought she too could PURCHASE California but this time around NO ONE was fooled by that incompetent Rethug, and Jerry Brown was elected to our states governorship. Sure, he's a lot older since he was running and making California a great state and sure, He has a LONG way to go to fix the HORRIBLE mess Schwarzenegger left us, but he will get us back to solvency, especially with the NEWLY installed Democratic SUPER-MAJORITY we have here in California. HOPEFULLY, Rethugs will just disappear all together. They are not wanted in California politics!

CHARLIE CRIST 2014!!!!!!!!!!

Cakeetiquettefl

In 2000 we had the chad ballot fiasco. How can it be that 12 years later the State of Florida is still unable to count?

The world is laughing at us with articles like this:

http://cakeetiquette.com/floridians-cant-count-queen-elizabeth-to-take-charge

Dan

What an Epic Fail for the GOP. Allen West, David Rivera and Romney all lost, and Alan Grayson and Obama. Romney even lost the Cuban-American vote, lol. Sanity has been restored to Florida.

rtoz

Normally Obama is a cool guy who won't show any emotion in public.But Obama cries as he thanks his Campaign Staff

Charles

As a citizen, I'm outraged that Florida didn't get voters counts tallied on time. Shame on the people in charge. I believe it is necessary to revise how voters cast thir vote in Florida. Get it right and on tm

Cwforyou

ryan

some of you are big babies. You have a week of early voting. You have weeks to vote absntee. You have the monday before to vote absentee then election day from 7am to 7pm to vote.

then you whine and moan when a busload of seniors are sent to the polls at 645 to a polling place with 4 pollworkers.

Is it really that hard to get to a polling place, or vote with the 1,000 other oortunities you had?

I voted at 730 am on election day. Maybe thats because I dont sleep in everyday and I have a job.

walter

He won because of blacks who vote on color only,dead beats from some place other than the U.S (send them back)plus all the food stamps,medicaid,an welfare they get free.Plus all the lies they were told.

The comments to this entry are closed.