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Q Poll: Hillary Clinton wallops Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio in their home state of FL

@MarcACaputo

Sorry Jeb, Marco.

Florida is Hillary country, according to Quinnipiac’s latest* 2016 presidential matchup.

The former secretary of state and New York senator would beat each Florida resident by 11 points, the poll shows. She bests Bush 51-40 and Rubio by a 52-41 percent spread.

Clinton’s likely biggest advantage: Women. They back Clinton over Bush and Rubio by 20 and 18 percentage points, respectively.

“We probably won’t know for some time whether former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2016, but if she decides to make the race, she begins with a sizable lead in a state that Republicans cannot win the White House without,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement. “Florida voters have a very positive view of Mrs. Clinton and it’s not just Democrats who feel that way.”

But Democrats love her. In an eight-candidate race in 2008, Clinton drew 49.8 percent of the Florida primary vote. Then-candidate Barack Obama came in second with almost 33 percent.

A fascinating aspect of the poll: the Hispanic numbers. Hispanic voters in the poll support her over Bush and Rubio (both of whom speak Spanish and are relatively well-known among Hispanic voters) by 32 and 22 points, respectively.

But because the sample size is so small, don’t take these numbers too seriously.

However, the numbers still indicate a lead and that spells trouble for Rubio, who’s far more likely than Bush to run for president.

Compared to Bush, Rubio does worse against Clinton among Democrats and independents but does better than Bush among Republicans. That suggests Rubio is a more-partisan figure. That can be good for winning a GOP primary, but it indicates some risks as well.

Also, Rubio’s unfavorable numbers have jumped from 17% after his 2010 election to 34% now. Still, he’s above water with 41% holding a favorable impression. Bush is better-liked, though, with a 50-35% fav-unfav rating.

But Clinton blows them away with a 62-33% rating.

If she runs, expect all that to change.

The first significant Republican salvo was fired last week against Clinton in Jennifer Rubin’s Right Turn Washington Post blog. It’s largely (not solely) about the Sept. 11 attacks and fallout in Benghazi, Libya.

Judging by the last election, the Benghazi line of attack might not be so effective in moving voters who aren't Republicans. But there's lots of time. And we still have the 2014 governor's race and congressional elections to survive in between.

Download Qpoll

* Apologies for not posting sooner. Other news got in the way

Comments

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No More Rick Scott

Rick Scott's 32% approval rating is the only poll that counts in Florida right now.

Tony Smith

Um - a lot of folks speak Spanish. Latinos aren't idiots! Some Latinos don't even speak Spanish.

Alfie

She will win if she runs. She would have won last election except for a political mistake she won't make again (she was campaigning for president not the primaries.) No one predicted Obama's popularity, what a shame for her. He would have made a great vp back then and president in 2016 after learning the game from the Clintons.

DC Maven

Let's face it, Hillary has been frail lately. Many seem to think that her health issues will keep her from running.

GOPDiva

I remember a time when Charlie Crist was beating Marco by.. how much again? These polls don't mean a thing this far out in time.

Lifelong REPUBLICAN

Rick Scott has failed everyone. I'm voting for Bill Nelson or Charlie Crist. If a dog got on the ballot I may vote for him over Rick Scott.

#SmithAPalooza

Hey guys, where's the beer?

ravza fm

Let's face it, Hillary has been frail lately. Many seem to think that her health issues will keep her from running....

whasup

Well, of course she is. We live in an era when it's about what class of person deserves the honor of being President. Given the most recent President, most women feel they are overdue to have one of their own in the office.

And if the R party had a functioning set of brains, eyes, and ears in its collective hoary head, it would be planning to nominate one of their women for the job ...

but it doesn't, and it won't, and it will likely lose the next race to Hillary and the Ds ...

and then, like this last race, afterwards it will be scratching its constituent body parts wondering why?

sup sup

Hillary did well but she's barely able to stand up much less run for president.

harry Houdini

Please let's look at Quality NOT diversity the next time we select a candidate. Voters tend to be a bit smarter than you think.

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