Sorry Jeb, Marco.
Florida is Hillary country, according to Quinnipiac’s latest* 2016 presidential matchup.
The former secretary of state and New York senator would beat each Florida resident by 11 points, the poll shows. She bests Bush 51-40 and Rubio by a 52-41 percent spread.
Clinton’s likely biggest advantage: Women. They back Clinton over Bush and Rubio by 20 and 18 percentage points, respectively.
But Democrats love her. In an eight-candidate race in 2008, Clinton drew 49.8 percent of the Florida primary vote. Then-candidate Barack Obama came in second with almost 33 percent.
A fascinating aspect of the poll: the Hispanic numbers. Hispanic voters in the poll support her over Bush and Rubio (both of whom speak Spanish and are relatively well-known among Hispanic voters) by 32 and 22 points, respectively.
But because the sample size is so small, don’t take these numbers too seriously.
However, the numbers still indicate a lead and that spells trouble for Rubio, who’s far more likely than Bush to run for president.
Compared to Bush, Rubio does worse against Clinton among Democrats and independents but does better than Bush among Republicans. That suggests Rubio is a more-partisan figure. That can be good for winning a GOP primary, but it indicates some risks as well.
Also, Rubio’s unfavorable numbers have jumped from 17% after his 2010 election to 34% now. Still, he’s above water with 41% holding a favorable impression. Bush is better-liked, though, with a 50-35% fav-unfav rating.
But Clinton blows them away with a 62-33% rating.
If she runs, expect all that to change.
The first significant Republican salvo was fired last week against Clinton in Jennifer Rubin’s Right Turn Washington Post blog. It’s largely (not solely) about the Sept. 11 attacks and fallout in Benghazi, Libya.
Judging by the last election, the Benghazi line of attack might not be so effective in moving voters who aren't Republicans. But there's lots of time. And we still have the 2014 governor's race and congressional elections to survive in between.
* Apologies for not posting sooner. Other news got in the way