In a state where a presidential election was famously decided by 537 ballots, Florida Democrats’ edge of 485,907 active voters over registered Republicans looks impressive at a glance.
But it isn’t.
In historical terms, it’s a bad sign for Democrats and Charlie Crist. And it’s great news for Republicans and Gov. Rick Scott.
The Democrats’ registration advantage hasn’t been this small since 2007. Perhaps more significantly, the gap is even smaller than it was in 2010 (591,809), when Republicans whipped Democrats at the ballot box.
You wouldn’t know the Democrats’ precarious position by looking at the public-opinion polls right now or by listening to Crist.
“I think we're gonna do it,” Crist told state House Democrats in Tallahassee on Thursday. “And I think they know it."
By “they,” Crist means Republicans. He used to be one of them (before becoming an independent and then a Democrat).
“They” don’t think they’re going to lose at all. There’s a reason for the Republican confidence: history.