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Q-Poll: Charlie Crist beating Rick Scott 48–38 percent

@MarcACaputo

Charlie Crist leads Gov. Rick Scott by 10 percentage points in a new poll of Florida voters that also indicates a majority of voters view the former governor's party-switching in a favorable light.

Separately, the Quinnipiac University poll also indicates a majority of Florida voters -- by 55-41 percent -- say illegal immigrants who graduate from Florida high schools should be eligible for in-state tuition rates. Voters also support gay marriage by 56-39 percent. 

In the governor's race, the poll indicates Crist's 48-38 percent lead over Scott is reflected in three key areas: likability, trustworthiness and compassion.

Scott is spending at least $6.5 million in ads in two months, many of them negative, and might have already spent as much as $20 million, according to Crist's campaign.

"So far, Florida Gov. Rick Scott's television barrage apparently has had no impact on the race. The incumbent has not been able to reduce former Gov. Charlie Crist's lead. In fact, voters see Crist's party switch in a positive light and the incumbent's effort to tie Crist's support for Obamacare has not yet borne fruit," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement.

Republicans are sure to complain that the poll over-surveyed self-identified independents and didn't include enough Republicans (who account for just 25 percent of the sample but likely will be more than 40 percent of the ballot-casting electorate in November).

If the poll were adjusted to show Republicans and Democrats turning out a 41 percent each and independents at 18 percent, for instance, Crist's lead would be far smaller over Scott: about 4 percentage points, or 46-42 percent.

But such calculations, nicknamed "unskewing," are fraught with mathematical and statistical peril (no one knows what the electorate will look like, for instance) and shouldn't be taken as being superior to the poll. More here on unskewing and averaging polls and more here about Quinnipiac's polling techniques.

Other recent polls have shown a far closer race at this point, with Tampa Bay’s NBC affiliate, WFLA, reported Tuesday that Crist led Scott 44-41 percent in a SurveyUSA poll, an apparent decrease of the 46-41 percent the Democrat held in an April 15 poll from the same firm.

Update: A poll from Republican-leaning Gravis Marketing finds quite the opposite of Quinnipiac: A Scott lead of 1 point, 44-43 percent over Crist. Democrats will be sure to note that Gravis has consistently had outlier polls that lean heavily conservative. Its results were off in the presidential race in Virginia and Florida, where it also wrongly showed Connie Mack was close to Sen. Bill Nelson, who blew the Republican away by 13 points.

All recent major polls show little-known Democrat Nan Rich faring poorly against Scott, with Quinnipiac indicating she'd lose 36-42 percent. Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie was not polled by Quinnipiac.

Crist's campaign expects the race against Scott to be tight. The governor intends to spend $100 million and money like that often buys enough ad time to change poll numbers. 

"Forget about the polls," Jim Messina, a Crist advisor who ran President Obama's re-election campaign in 2012 said in a recent email to supporters.

"One says we're up, another says we're down, a third says we're tied -- that crap is just noise," he wrote. "This race is going to come down to the wire. What will put us over the top is the grassroots organization we build together."

Poll is here

 

Comments

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ed jenkins

The readers have continuously stated that they do not consider opinion surveys to be news and worth of their hometown paper yet this horrible article writer continues to simply reprint these various surveys and their press releases as news for his work. The readers recommend terminating this lazy article writer and finding a replacement that reports news or massive subscriber losses of the past will continue.

PS

Instant analysis: Five takeaways from today’s Q-poll showing Crist leading Scott by ten.

wp.me/pShRp-Bi0

Joe Kreps

Waste of time. Only 25% Republican. Still no head to head on Nan vs. Charlie in primary.

JR

Ed, cry me a river. Most of us want to hear about opinion polling. If you don't want to read about it, then don't read it.

Marc, regarding Nan Rich's numbers, do you have reworked numbers based on a 41-41-18 turnout model? I'd be interested to see how that plays out.

Smart thinking

Nan who?

davefe

Rick Scott would do every Floridian a favor by just leaving. To spend a 100 million in a losing cause when Republicans here are responsible for a million uninsured Floridians and well over a million unemployed. No one really knows because so many are no longer counted. Crist leads by 10 points and spends nothing close to Scott. That money could be used to help Floridians but no Rick has his own agenda. Hey Rick when you leave in six months don't let the door hit you in the backside.

Can't take anymore

I can't wait to hear Old Skinhead having the new name of Former Florida Governor Rick Scott. It just sounds so right.

tom

I cant believe you guys the democrats are destroying this country and you think voting a democrate who was destroying jobs in florida will help check your facts

ed jenkins

The wise tom correctly remembers the record of the scumbag crist as who left this state in such dire straits, but don't worry as democrat primary voters also remember this record as well as their dislike of this horrible man and will never voter for him in their primary since at least the nancy lady can be counted on to be a loyal democrat.

Bill Thompson

Despite spending millions of dollars in ad campaigns, the scumbag Scott has not been able to gain any traction in trying to revive his failing re-election campaign. He has insulted former governors, hispanics, african-americans and every day floridians. Florida voters remember this Scott's record of the last 3 years, as well as their dislike of this dispassionate horrible man who cares nothing about making their daily lives better.

J.M. Becker

Here's the thing about Christ, he's the genuine article, a real public servant. He may not be ideologically driven, but he cares about the residents above politics and power. Scott on the other hand belongs in a prison cell for ripping off the taxpayers, and is one of the most corrupt governors in the nation. Scott puts everything above the public interest, politics, ideology, money, power. Also to blame Christ for the 08 crash is completely ridiculous, the governors don't control what happens on wall street.

Afi K. James

Because charlie ass crist didn't stop it, he just supported it.

plus he's just as bought and paid for as RINO scott.

M. Fischer

Veto SB 6, sounds like Charlie is a winner.

atiboy15

Adrian Wyllie is going to beat them all. Shame on Quinnipiac polling Company for including Nan Rich in their polling but NOT Adrian Wyllie

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