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Rasmussen poll: Charlie Crist 45%, Rick Scott 39%.

@MarcACaputo

I keep blogging polls and noting, more often than not, that Gov. Rick Scott will eventually close the gap with Democrat Charlie Crist, in part because of the Republican's mammoth ad buys.

But the polls, except for two outliers, remain stubbornly similar (last post on last batch of polls is here). 

And the latest Rasmussen Reports poll is no different. It shows Crist getting 45% of the likely vote and Scott getting 39%. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie wasn't polled (instead, "some other candidate" was). **UPDATE: Of course, a News Service of Florida poll shows a tie **

The poll's results are surprising for two reasons: 

1) Scott has spent more than $5 million on TV ads since March 12 (And he has reserved more ad time through mid-May, which would total $6.5 million in two months). That should have moved the needle more in Scott's direction.

2) This is Rasmussen, whose results tend to lean more conservative than some other polls. In part, that's the result of technology. Rasmussen uses so-called robo-polling technology that relies on landline voters, who tend to be older and whiter and therefore more Republican or conservative than cell-phone owning voters who tend to be younger and more minority and therefore more Democratic or liberal.

Important note: The poll likely oversampled Democrats and independents (37, 30 percent respectively) and therefore undersampled Republicans (33 percent). If the results were adjusted based on a likely midterm turnout model, where Republicans often match or out-perform Democrats, the topline of the poll would be much closer.

Still, Republicans have been nervous for some time about Scott's "awful" poll numbers. Yes, it's still early. Scott wants to spend $100 million. These poll numbers indicate he'll need to, and this survey is sure to give conservatives, and donors, little comfort.

Here's the write-up from Rasmussen:

Republican-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist leads incumbent GOP Governor Rick Scott by six points in Rasmussen Reports' first look at Florida’s 2014 gubernatorial race.

The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters shows Crist, who served as governor from 2007 to 2011, picking up 45% of the vote to Scott’s 39%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, while 10% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on April 21-22, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Comments

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ed jenkins

The readers have continuously commented that they do not get any value from article writers who publish opinion surveys which are not considered news to the readers. They ask the Herald to terminate this writer for failure to listen to readers and doing a lazy job of simply publishing a press release with a few of his comments in this hometown paper.

Stephen L. Goldstein

Nan Rich is Rick Scott's candidate; she's on an ego-trip, says Crist should debate her, has no standing in the polls but goes around bashing Crist and praising herself as THE Democratic candidate. Problem is: Florida doesn't elect pure Democrats; it goes for middle-of-the-roaders. It's time for Rich to withdraw from the race and for Dems statement to walk away from her and unify around a winner: Charlie Crist. Florida cannot endure four more years of Rick Scott.

Highly paid Republican consultant

$100, 000, 000 will blow Crist away!

Highly paid Republican consultant

As for Nan Rich even the dumb Dems are not that mashochistic..

jd

Check out this ad in MS, Thad Cochran Music Video (US Senator)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k27-HC90dzc

dave

Looking forward to Charlie Crist debating Rick Scott. The other person...Nan something is just a distraction and I agree with the comment made earlier that she should step aside. Scott has some explaining to do and walking away from reporters questions because you do not like the questions is unacceptable. Crist will force Scott to answer.

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