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Biz poll: Charlie Crist lead cut to 44-43% over Rick Scott, who closes gap by 3 points

@MarcACaputo

Gov. Rick Scott has closed the gap with Democrat Charlie Crist in a new statewide survey from a business interest showing the two candidates are virtually tied, 43-44 percent.

Crist’s 1 percentage point lead represents a net decline of 3 percentage points since the last time the business interest polled in February; The Miami Herald reported those results as well after agreeing to keep the source of the information private.

In February, Crist led Scott 42-38 percent in a poll taken by the group. The 1,000-person likely voter survey does differ in both technique and results from Quinnipiac University’s late April poll, which showed Crist up by 10 – a net 2 point increase since January.

So, partisans, pick your polls (although not everyone: Libertarian Adrian Wyllie wasn't polled nor was Democratic candidate Nan Rich).

What’s indisputable is that, Scott has led Crist in one clear category, TV advertising, where the governor has spent at least $8 million to the former governor’s 0 since March.

Crist is fundraising well but can’t financially match the powers of incumbency. That gives Scott ample time to advertise himself in a positive light and Crist in a negative light without any paid media opposition.

The likely effect of the ads (assuming they’re having an effect): Republicans are coming home to Scott and leaving Crist, which we noted last month was a probability.

In the February poll, Scott earned just 68 percent of the Republican vote to Crist’s 16 percent. Now Scott has 79 percent of the GOP vote to Crist’s 11 percent. That’s a net increase of 16 percentage points in Scott’s favor.

One troubling sign for Scott: independent/other-party voters haven’t really moved. They favor Crist 42-35 percent (yesterday’s McLaughlin & Associates poll for a Republican group showed Scott winning this group, however).

This business interest’s poll, unlike many of the others, appeared to closely model the likely make-up of the mid-term electorate: 42 percent of respondents are Republican, 40 percent Democrat and 18 percent independent/other.

Also, it analyzed different turnout scenarios. Crist wins by 2, 6 and 4 points under 2006, 2008 and 2012 models, respectively (note: only 06 is a midterm). Under a 2010 scenario (a midterm but high watermark for the GOP), Scott wins by 2.

Adding this poll and McLaughlin’s to the other polls that we previously aggregated and averaged, Crist’s lead drops to about 1.6 percentage points from 2.4 points. Crist wins by 0.62 points under an ’06 model, loses by 1.5 points under a 2010 model and is ahead by just 0.4 under a model blending the 2010 and 2006 turnout rates.

The race is probably close.

But stick around. Another poll is coming that will help undercut all of that. 

**Update: WFLA in Tampa released its latest poll from SurveyUSA showing Crist with a 44-41 percent lead, the same spread as two weeks ago. Prior to that, though, it found Crist with a 46-41 percent lead.

Comments

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Highly paid Republican Consultant

The Boss has already spent $8,000,000 in paid media and Crist has spent $0.

What does that teach us?

ed jenkins

The readers have repeatedly requested that this nonsense of filling their hometown paper with endless meaningless opinion surveys stop yet this most horrible article writer continues. They request immediate termination of an article writer who does not respect the wishes of the readers.

Can't take anymore

The incumbent Governor has to spend nearly $10 million in "dark" campaign and regular funds to get to where he nearly breaks even with a guy who really has no political home? Charlie has been doing a financial rope-a-dope with Scott and will soon begin his own advertising blitz on TV stations in the battle ground areas. That's when the margin will go back to a 5% to 10% advantage for Crist no matter how much $$$ the Scott gang dumps into the campaign.

Can't Make This Sht Up

LOL at this poll.

LOL at the "journalism" involved in analyzing a poll without declaring the name of the pollster, the margin of error, the size of the sample, the regional and demographic breakdown, or the "business interest" that paid for their poll.

Shame on you @MarcACaputo.

Even given the incomplete information above, all that it says to me is that even when the "likely make-up of the mid-term electorate" is tilted hard to the GOP, Charlie Crist is still winning, and probably winning by more than 1% when you factor in this poll's unknown MoE, sample size, demographic details, etc. As others have mentioned, this is also taking place at the height of Scott's media blitz and before Crist has even considered going on air.

Shorter: HAHAHA at the idea that Scott has "closed the gap". Basically journalistic malpractice care of the Miami Herald.

Highly paid Reublican Consultant

You won't be laughing when the other $92,000,000 gets used.

MarvinM

In 2010, Rick Scott won the Florida governorship over Alex Sink by just about 1%. That's not a lot.

If I thought every single Floridian who voted for Scott last time will vote for him this time, I'd still say he has only a marginal chance to win a second term as governor, no matter who the person running against him is.

And ... I do not believe every Floridian who voted for him in 2010 will be voting for him again in 2014.

These polls will be taken and they will be reported upon, and that's cool.

But the last thing anyone should do is think their vote does not matter just because of some poll.

I made a mistake in 2010, not by not voting (I most certainly did vote), but I did not do what I could do to get people registered to vote, to encourage them to vote, and/or to help them vote, because I never imagined that Rick Scott, with his history of Medicare fraud, in Florida, could possibly have been elected. Yet, he was.

We should all watch the polls, but we should never them them dictate what we do or do not do.

Joe Kreps

Polls are for Losers. Ask Mitt Romney and Charlie Crist. Also it doesn't matter how much money Crist and Scott have to throw mud at each other, they are both dirty. A vote for Charlie is a vote for the same old thing. A vote for Nan Rich is a vote for Change for the better.

ed jenkins

The readers appreciate the rare but wise comments by this joe kreps who represents the views of broward democrat primary voters who will all support the nancy lady over the scumbag crist.

Ty

I'll be voting for Nan Rich!!! The only true democrat in this race!!!!

arthro

Not really excited about either choice, but at least Rick Scott has results on his side and Charlie Crist is a flip-floppin, lying panderer who will say anything to get elected. Florida is better off under Rick Scott than Charlie Crist. It's time for Crist to give up on politics and make ambulance chasing his full-time career.

Smart thinker

But has he had to invoke the 5th amendment against self incrimination like the other guy?

nancy

Caputo is a right wing troll..
his writing and his opinions and conclusions are GOP PROPAGANDA..
DISREGARD! BS ALERT ON CAPUTO
FRAUDSTER SCOTT NEEDS TO GO! and he will...despite the misinformation and BS written here..including the comments from right wing tools like those above...
Read it and weep GOP..you’re outta here!

nancy

By the way..
Nan Rich=Alex Sink
Meeks is the other spoiler who defeated chances for the Dems..

Get out of the races you losers!
you can’t win..
obviously your personal gain is more important than the future of the state...Bye Bye..get out of the race...you will NEVER win and your “personal agenda” actually hurts people..Nan Rich and Meeks...get the heck out!

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