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WFLA/SurveyUSA poll: Crist retakes lead, beating Scott 44-40. Huh?

@MarcACaputo

File this one under the category labeled "what?"

Somehow, Democrat Charlie Crist has retaken the lead over Gov. Rick Scott in the latest SurveyUSA poll for Tampa's WFLA NBC affiliate.

Here's what makes Crist's 44-40 percent advantage over Scott odd: the same pollster two weeks ago released a survey showing Crist down 40-42 to Scott, an inside-the-error-margin lead for the Republican just as Crist's lead is inside the margin. And that result, considering other polling like today's PPP survey, made sense because Scott is spending millions on TV already (about $12 million in 12 weeks by now). Crist has spent nothing.

TV ads move the electorate. No TV ads usually don't. 

Even Crist's spokesman, Kevin Cate, seemed puzzled -- or amused -- with the cumulative 6 percentage-point shift.

"Must be all of our $0 on TV vs. RS's $15 mil," Cate said via Twitter.

This could be a one-off, a statistical blip or an inside-the-error margin shift (Crist's lead is still within the MOE). It's definitely odd.

WFLA and SurveyUSA haven't yet posted their crosstabs, so it's not clear where the partisan shifting is occuring, although WFLA reports that Crist is running strong in South Florida. But that's no surprise. It's a Democratic bastion.

Putting aside the inexplicable Crist jump, there's reason for Scott to be concerned with all of the recent polling. Despite the millions he has spent, he looks frozen at 42 to 45 percent support. In the SurveyUSA poll, Scott's numbers haven't budget. In the PPP survey, Scott was also at 42 percent. Yes, if you "unskew" the polls, Scott's numbers will nudge up.

But regardless, it's a sign that Scott has serious -- but not insurmountable -- problems.

Update: The headline had the wrong numbers. Perhaps it's a sign from above to post no more SurveyUSA polls.

Comments

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LOLCaputo

Another mind blowing analysis from @MarcACaputo.

Is it really that befuddling to you that there were two polls in a row that were within the MOE?

Better question for you Marc, do you understand the concept of a MOE?

"""Yes, if you "unskew" the polls, Scott's numbers will nudge up."""

LOL at that ^^^^

The Herald should be embarrassed by this pathetic "analysis".

Highly paid Republican operative

Don't worry people the Boss is going to spend $100,000,000.

He can not lose!

Hmmmm...

Charlie's numbers are sure to drop when the real war on women is broadcast to all Floridians...

"With Charlie, if you are a woman who voiced your opinion, whether you were staff or not, you weren't allowed to be around much,"

and John Morgan attacking Debbie Wasserman-Schultz...

It's no surprise that Charlie won't debate Nan Rich... maybe he is afraid of strong women? Intimidated by them?

Sly

Imagine that. Spending $12 million to $0.00 and the GOP candidate still hasn't pull ahead. Ha,ha,ha! Just wait until Crist begins to spend and see him leave Scott in the dust. Similar to what happened with Eric Cantor who had amassed $5.7 million to Bart who had $250,000. Whooops!

Welcome back to the Governor's office Charlie Crist! Money alone cannot and will not win elections. Ask Karl Rove and Sheldon Adelson.

davefe

Rick Scott will lose and no amount of money will matter, just ask Eric Cantor. Scott is so disliked here in Florida that he no longer appears in public. The polls mean little but Crist has been leading from the the beginning. One thing about Rick Scott, he will surely open his mouth and say something or do something stupid before November. And the war on women, minorities, poor, unemployed and uninsured is a Republican tactic, not Democrat. Crist deserves credit for evolving and moving away from the extremist right wing.

Hector Mafu

Scott is going to lose with all his money. He's a mafioso.

Indie Thinker

And now just wait and see what the polls look like when they reflect what his core thinks of him signing the FL Dream Act...

Christopher M. Kennard

Although long a Florida resident living in various areas around our state, I moved to Ocala about two years ago and I am amazed at what I am finding here.

The public school system is failing both students and their professional teachers who care about their pupils. The Marion County Sheriff’s department suffers from a lack of moral ethics, corrupt management and the good ole’ boy network’s questionable maneuvers to subvert the majority vote by seating a hand-picked candidate during the last election through improper, hidden campaign slush funds and the amazingly sleazy sexual entrapment of the winner of the election primary. Local city and county elected officials ignore the needs of the majority while wasting taxpayers money to splurge on signs, attorneys paid to fight other elected officials for stupid reasons and to enact new legislation to promote corporate and the wealthy elite’s financial interests at the rising cost to property owners and local residents who can ill afford this waste of public funds. State and federal politicians cater to their wealthy campaign donors list, and little to nothing gets done.

What I found hopeful was that many people have finally had enough and are determined to take back control of their own lives, straighten out the mess of our public affairs and address community needs long ignored by our local, state and federal politicians.

Numerous people . . . hundreds of registered voters, eagerly signed both of the citizen’s ballot initiatives for water and land conservation and for Medical Marijuana for me in front of the Marion County Property Appraiser/Motor Vehicle office in Ocala last winter.

Over thirty (30) people who had given up voting went inside right then and there to register to vote, then signed the ballot initiatives as newly registered voters. Many, many more said they would make certain they voted this year so we can pass both Florida Constitutional Amendments # 1 and # 2.

Our solution to resolving the many issues we, as Floridians and as U. S. citizens lies within our hands, literally. Make no mistake, even you, acting alone, can “double” your vote, and double the impact you make in this election.

Two simple steps . . . registered to vote . . . bring a friend with you, particularly someone who may not have otherwise registered or intended to vote . . . and make sure you both vote. You double your impact!

This year, I do not intend to vote to re-elect anyone now in office to serve another term. I am "firing" the whole squishy squirming mess of politicians now in office, on the federal, state and local level.

It is up to us, the people of this country, to stand up for ourselves and the constitutional rights we all have. It is our right and our duty to Vote.

No one else is going to rescue us; we need to be rescued from the corrupt and ineffective politicians who have poisoned our government, through greed and the consuming need for power. Both political parties are guilty; both Democrats and Republicans need to refocus their allegiance and efforts.

It is time for the common folk of this country to rise up and peacefully take control, through the power of the vote, to further our goal that " government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth."

We have the power and the ability to expand our power as citizens of the United States of America. We have the numbers and the votes and people are beginning to wake up and believe this very simple truth. The vote is more powerful than money.

Interestingly, it seems the peaceful herb of medicinal healing qualities, Cannabis, or “Medical Marijuana” is acting as a lit torch, illuminating the path for most of us to create and follow.

The use of Medical Marijuana garners increasing support throughout the country, with 21 states already approving Medical Marijuana use and several other states, such as Florida, joining the movement to ensure that medical care decisions remain between a physician and their patients without unnecessary government interference.

For years, our elected politicians in Florida have blocked citizens from being able to vote on Medical Marijuana use, as well as other matters that must be resolved, such as the purity and safety of our drinking water, our rivers, lakes, springs and our coastal waters.

Both issues are related. The majority of registered voters strongly approve both measures. The majority of our current elected State of Florida officials and congressional members strongly oppose us. Why?

Numerous corporations and wealthy campaign contributors to many of our current politicians oppose both Medical Marijuana and environmentally safe water and land practices and policies. These entrenched interests fear that their profits might drop and new industries or products might become more popular, or they will lose their power, financial status and influence. Pharmaceutical companies, the lumber, mining and the oil industries, developers and some cliques within local, state and federal law enforcement agencies are all fighting tooth and nail against us.

As people have done in other states, registered voters of Florida mounted a citizen’s movement to bypass the politicians and pass a citizen initiated Constitutional Amendment # 1 (for environmental protection of water and land) and another one, Constitutional Amendment # 2 (for Medical Marijuana use). Despite the politicians determined opposition, we won the right to vote this November 4th on both issues.

Survey after survey of registered voters, here in Florida as well as many other states voting to approve Medical Marijuana, demonstrate our determination to pass these intelligent laws despite the equally determined effort of these politicians to defeat us on behalf of corporations who place their profit ahead of the best interests of the people of the United States.

Although both Constitutional Amendment # 1 “Water and Land Conservation”, and Constitutional Amendment # 2 “Use of Marijuana For Certain Medical Conditions” will pass the high bar of 60 % of voter approval to become law, the politicians still plan to stop our movement forward by putting the “devil in the details.” You see, they get to write the legislation to put into practice the ideals and intent of our citizen sponsored constitutional amendments. The way legislation is written can either make a law successful or sink it like a stone in water.

Our current crop of corrupt politicians are confident they can derail our new constitutional amendments, once they pass approval of Florida’s voters on November 4th, 2014. They believe they have the money and ability to fool us once again, like they did when drawing the new legislative district boundaries in 2010 to protect the current elected politicians to stay in political power. All they need to do is stay in office, another “safe bet” they believe, based upon Florida’s political past. Incumbent politicians almost always stay in office.

While I am not a "one issue" voter, I have found that those who do support Medical Marijuana and environmentally safe policies and practices generally follow a certain tread of voting on behalf of the majority of Florida residents rather than for shadowy corporate campaign donors who expect legislative or contract deal pay-offs after election day.

I do not intend to vote for one politician now in office. I am “firing” the whole lot of them and will get new candidates in office in an effort to get this country moving forward. Local, state and federal office --- all those up for re-election, at least in Marion County, they all got to go!

Anthropologist Margaret Mead was quite correct in her observation, "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.”

And make no mistake, even you, acting alone, can “double” your vote, and double the impact you make in this election. Working with others of like mind and dedication, you multiply by many the impacts and energies imbuing the political process and outcome.

Two simple steps . . . registered to vote . . . bring a friend with you, particularly someone who may not have otherwise registered or intended to vote . . . and make sure you both vote.

Multiply that by adding one or two more people and make a party out of voting. Who says politics has to be dirty and corrupt? As more and more people register and go vote, the change is being made, peacefully and in a positive fashion.

It is a simple idea that works!

I am registered here in Ocala, Florida as an “Independent” Voter. I have been a community organizer working within the political arena with “good” Republicans, Democrats and Independent candidates for office and to pass positive, productive legislation for over 40 years.

I know Margaret Mead was correct; I have been one of those citizens who have worked cooperatively with others and have been successful.

Here, in Ocala and Marion County, Florida, we need to take strong action on election day to get back on track. It is time for a positive change, isn’t it?

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