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Rick Scott/Fabrizio poll: Crist trails governor by 4% in crowded race, 5% head-to-head


Normally, you can readily dismiss a campaign's polling memo because it's so self-serving. So read the following internal memo from Gov. Rick Scott's pollster, Tony Fabrizio, with caution.

The survey shows Scott beating Democrat Charlie Crist by 5 percentage points in a head-to-head match, while SurveyUSA yesterday found Crist up by 6 points and Quinnipiac University reported today that Crist is winning by 5 points head to head (but up by an inside-the-error margin of only 2 points with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie in the race).

But also remember, it's Fabrizio.

He helped mastermind the mechanics and message of Scott's improbable 2010 primary and general-elections wins. Also, he was one of the few pollsters to get the margin right in the March special congressional election between Democrat Alex Sink and U.S. Rep. David Jolly, who bested her by 2 points.

Another bit of history: Fabrizio was a top advisor for Tim Pawlenty's successful 2002 race for Minnesota governor. It was a three-way contest, and Fabrizio helped perfect the art of getting someone elected with less than 44 percent of the vote.

There's a good chance that could happen here in Florida with Scott, who reaches 45 percent in Fabrizio's poll and 50 percent in a head-to-head matchup against Crist (the highest we've seen the incumbent reach).

Here's the memo

FROM:             Tony Fabrizio & David Lee, Fabrizio Lee & Associates
TO:                   Campaign Supporters
DATE:              July 23, 2014
SUBJECT:       Polling Update

In a survey conducted last week for Let’s Get to Work after Crist and his allies had spent more than $2 million on ads, we found very significant changes in the political environment in Florida. The voters have taken a sharp turn towards Republicans, with a 10-point advantage on the described generic ballot.

President Obama’s numbers have continued their erosion. The President’s job approval is only 41 percent, with 55 percent disapproving. ObamaCare is similarly unpopular, with only 39 percent approving of the law, versus 55 percent who disapprove.

Governor Scott’s ratings continue to strengthen, especially on issues. The Governor leads on the most important metrics: which candidate is best able to create jobs, turn Florida’s economy around, and improve education. That’s why 51 percent of Florida voters say they approve of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor, with only 41% disapproving.

Governor Scott leads Crist by 4 points – 45% to 41% in the 3-way ballot. Head-to-head versus Crist, Governor Scott reaches the 50% threshold – leading by 5 points, 50% to 45%.


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ed jenkins

The readers after requesting numerous times that his most horrible article writer refrain from printing opinion surveys as news which they do not consider news once again ask the herald for the termination of this lazy article writer who cannot do his job or the massive subscriber losses seen in recent decades will continue.

Mrs. Ed Jenkins

Being a political adviser doesn't make one a good pollster. And just getting the Jolly race correct, does not establish a trend. Seriously - this article is just a filler to create a headline on the governor's race. Oh, God, did I just agree with Ed?

Highly paid Republican operative

See the race is over.

That's what a $100,000,000 will do to the Dems!

Bill Thompson

Just another piece of campaign propaganda from the scumbag Scott.

William C.

So does this mean Fabrizio is back in the mix? Calling the shots? If it does I have renewed faith that Scott can win. With Sellers no faith at all.

Roger Stone

Curt Anderson, Todd and Sellars have the stench of losers about them.

Highly paid Republican operative

Is this the Roger Stone from the Nixon days?


Democrats need to stop doubting the polls and realize that Florida is NOT very blue yet, especially in midterm years. If we want to win we need to make sure we get good turnout this year. It won't be as good as 2012 because it's not a Presidential year, but I am seeing way too many Democrats think that Scott cannot win because he's so horrible. True he is horrible, but he absolutely can and will win if people keep on thinking like that. Just like that far-right extremist Rubio won in 2010, it can happen if Democrats decide to stay home again.

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