Miami Rep. Carlos Curbelo represents the most pro-Hillary Clinton district in the country currently held by a Republican running for reelection in 2018, and he could be in trouble if Democrats make nationwide gains next year.
"Curbelo impressed in 2016, winning a second term by 12 points while Hillary Clinton carried this 69 percent Latino district by 16 points," Cook editor Dave Wasserman wrote. "But Curbelo also had the luxury of running against Democrat Joe Garcia, who was disgraced by an absentee ballot scandal. And despite his push for a bipartisan immigration reform bill, Curbelo's recent votes in favor of the GOP's healthcare and tax bills give Democrats fodder to tie him to Trump."
Wasserman also mentioned Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, noting that she captured 46 percent of the vote against sitting state Sen. Anitere Flores in 2016. Flores' district closely mirrors Curbelo's Miami-to-Key West seat.
"She raised $177,000 last quarter and has a long way to catch up to Curbelo's $1.3 million, but Democrats are encouraged that they flipped a nearby state senate district in a September special election," Wasserman said. "No Republican running for reelection represents a more pro-Clinton district than Curbelo. He's in for another tough race."
Nationwide, Wasserman rates 17 Republican-held seats as "toss ups" compared to four Democratic-held seats. Retiring Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's open seat, in a Miami district that voted for Clinton by a larger margin than Curbelo's, is rated as "lean Democratic."
Democrats must win 24 seats nationwide in the 2018 elections to gain a majority in the House of Representatives.