July 20, 2015

Charlie Crist plans to run for Congress

via @learyreports

Charlie Crist is preparing to run for the U.S. House seat David Jolly is vacating to run for Senate.

Crist's action follows Republican Jolly announcing his Senate campaign this morning. It's all due to the likely redrawing of the 13th Congressional District due to the recent Florida Supreme Court decision ordering new lines in eight districts across the state.

The new district would likely be much more Democratic, forcing Jolly to leave. Crist, the former Republican turn Democrat, has a natural base in hometown Pinellas County and would bring big name ID and fundraising ability.

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

April 12, 2015

Complaint filed over Charlie Crist role in Annette Taddeo emails

@PatriciaMazzei

Charlie Crist improperly contributed to Annette Taddeo's Democratic campaign for Congress, according to a complaint a Republican filed last week with the Federal Election Commission.

The complaint, by Saul Escobar of Miami, argues that when Crist let Taddeo use an email list from last year's Florida governor's race, it amounted to an impermissible donation from a state campaign to a federal one. It also says Taddeo herself should have authorized the emails to supporters, sent after she launched her 2016 campaign last week with the disclaimer, "Paid for and approved by Charlie Crist."

Note that there's no reference to "Charlie Crist for Governor," which suggests Crist himself -- and no state campaign -- was involved in the transaction, unlike what the complaint alleges. A campaign's non-monetary assets, such as email lists, usually belong to a candidate once the race is done. In this case, that's Crist (and not Taddeo, his running mate), and he presumably could give out the list to whomever he wanted.

"These kinds of misleading partisan attacks are exactly what South Floridians hate about Washington," said Joshua Karp, a Florida Democratic Party spokesman. "As a working mom and a small business owner, Annette knows that the people of the 26th District expect and deserve better than these kinds of petty partisan attacks."

Escobar appears to be a member of the Miami Young Republicans.

However, the larger question may be whether Taddeo's campaign should have used a Crist disclaimer at all. For example, it could have assigned the email list a value and listed it as an "in-kind contribution" in its first campaign-finance report, avoiding the disclaimer confusion. In an attempt to be cautious, the Taddeo camp may have gotten more tangled than it needed to.

March 25, 2015

Charlie Crist endorses Patrick Murphy for U.S. Senate

Former Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Jupiter, for U.S. Senate today.

“Patrick Murphy has the energy, integrity, and work ethic we need in the United States Senate,” Crist wrote on Facebook. “I hope you'll join me in supporting his campaign.”

Crist was mentioned as a potential contender for the race for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's seat but he decided not to jump in shortly before Murphy’s final decision to jump into the race which he announced Monday. Crist essentially gave Murphy a heads-up that he wouldn’t run (not so with DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz who also recently announced she won’t run statewide).

Crist's endorsement came as no surprise since Murphy's family and Crist are longtime friends and Murphy's chief of staff, Eric Johnson, was also a former Crist advisor. But this is Murphy's first major endorsement by a former statewide office holder. Murphy has also been endorsed by U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Boca Raton.

So far, Murphy is the only major candidate to announce that he will run though he could face a challenge from the left by U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Orlando. That would create a primary battle because Grayson is popular with progressives while Murphy has voted as a centrist while representing his right-leaning Treasure Coast district. On the Republican side, CFO Jeff Atwater and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera are strong contenders.

 

March 16, 2015

No, Charlie Crist isn't running for office in 2016

@PatriciaMazzei

Charlie Crist dispelled any lingering rumors Monday that he could, maybe, possibly, potentially run for U.S. Senate in 2016.

On Facebook and then on Twitter, Crist plugged the Florida Democratic Party but said he won't be on the ballot.

In a sign of Florida Democrats' thin political bench, Crist's name had been mentioned earlier this year as someone Democrats could look at if Republican Sen. Marco Rubio chooses to run for president and not seek reelection. Crist, the Republican-turned-independent-turned Democrat former Florida governor, lost to Rubio as an independent in 2010. He then lost to Gov. Rick Scott in 2014.

The most likely Democratic candidate for now appears to be U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Jupiter, who hosted a swanky South Beach gathering for donors last weekend. He's expected to announce a run next week, regardless of Rubio's plans.

UPDATE: Here's Murphy's reaction on Twitter:

December 01, 2014

Rick Scott campaign: post-election survey shows why exit polls on Cubans, Hispanics were wrong

@MarcACaputo

Though exit polls indicated Gov. Rick Scott lost Hispanics by a 20 percentage-point margin, the Republican’s campaign conducted its own post-election survey that showed he might have almost tied Democrat Charlie Crist with these voters.

Scott’s survey, conducted by OnMessage Inc., shows Scott earned 47 percent of the Hispanic vote compared to Crist’s 49 percent, unlike the exit polls that had the Democrat leading the Republican 58-38 percent. The 2010 exit polls had Scott winning 50 percent of the Hispanic vote to Democrat Alex Sink’s 48 percent.

“While an array of news articles point to a Rick Scott victory ‘despite losing ground with Hispanics,’ that’s simply not true,” wrote OnMessage’s Wes Anderson and Kayla Dunlap in a polling memo.

One potential problem with the surveys from OnMessage and Edison Research (which conducts the exit polls for media groups): Their Hispanic samples were relatively low. OnMessage’s sample was 304 and Edison’s was 367. So the error-margins of the results will vary widely. (UPDATE/aside: A few readers have pointed out it's important to note that some voters in post-election surveys have a tendency to say they backed the winner).

A third survey, conducted on the eve of the election by the premier Hispanic polling firm of Latino Decisions, had 400 Florida respondents and found Crist leading Scott 52-45 percent -- results that fall somewhere in between the OnMessage and Edison surveys.

OnMessage’s polling also took issue with Edison’s results for Cuban-American voters. It’s always a contested topic because Cubans (especially those in Miami-Dade) tend to vote Republican and are the most-reliable of Hispanic voters. Also, because Cuban-Americans are a subset of Hispanic voters, the margin of error in surveying this demographic group is even greater.

OnMessage said Scott won Cubans over Crist 65-30 percent. Edison showed Crist ahead of Scott, 50-46 percent. Unfortunately, Latino Decisions didn’t report Cuban-voter results.

So who’s right? Who knows? When the Florida voter file is finally updated next month, we can examine voting patterns of heavily Cuban-American precincts to get a better idea of how the vote broke.

My guess is OnMessage is more right on Cuban voters. It’s tough to believe that Crist, who made little outreach with Spanish-speaking voters and who called for an end to the Cuban embargo, would have attracted majority support from Cubans. Yes, it’s true that younger Cuban Americans tend to vote more Democrat or independently and aren’t as hardline about Cuba policy, but most election data indicated this was an older electorate.

Scott, meanwhile, had a Cuban-American running mate in Carlos Lopez-Cantera and the support of Miami-Dade’s Cuban-American legislative delegation. Scott got just 39 percent of Miami-Dade’s vote in 2014 and, considering 72 percent of the county’s registered Republicans are Cuban-Americans, it’s reasonable to guess that an outsized portion of the Scott vote was among Cuban Americans.

“When the Hispanic vote is broken down by county of origin, we find that Governor Scott won a sizable majority of Cuban voters as well as more Puerto Rican voters than many expected,” Anderson and Dunlap wrote. “In the end, most Hispanic voters were focused on the economy, and they decided that under Governor Scott’s leadership, the state’s real estate and job markets are headed in the right direction.”

Download Scott poll

November 25, 2014

The 2014 governor's race votes and ad spending by Florida media market

@MarcACaputo

The race for Florida governor was officially certified last week, so now we have final numbers. By our estimate, more than $103 million was spent on TV ads since March. 

All told, 6,026,802 Floridians cast ballots. Of them, about 53 percent voted early in person or by absentee ballot (1,878,537 absentees + 1,309,198 early votes = 3,187,735).

More people voted in the governor's race than any other contest: 5,951,561. Scott received 2,865,343 votes to Crist's 2,801,198. That's 48.14 percent to 47.07, a margin of 1.08 percent, or 64,145.

Scott's raw-vote margin was 4.2 percent bigger than in 2010, when his margin was 61,550 over Democrat Alex Sink. On a percentage basis, though, Scott did worse than in 2010, when his win-margin was 1.2 percentage points (the overall number of people voting in the governor's race grew 11 percent since 2010).

Here's how the 2014 votes broke down by media market, along with the ad spending:

Florida votes & ad spending

 

 

 

November 09, 2014

The takeaways and lessons of Florida's 2014 election

@MarcACaputo

Those who ignore history are condemned to look like Florida Democrats in a midterm election.

Before Tuesday’s Republican drubbing of Democrats at the polls, there were warning signs — lessons that should have been learned or heeded — that were either ignored or downplayed by Democrat Charlie Crist, his campaign or his supporters.

Take, for instance, an August column headlined “Florida Democrats’ biggest problem is ... Florida Democrats,” where I noted how poor primary turnout, especially in South Florida, was a potentially bad sign for Crist.

One Democratic reader told me on Twitter that the column was full of “histrionics.”

Continue reading "The takeaways and lessons of Florida's 2014 election" »

November 07, 2014

Breaking down the media-market wins of Rick Scott and Charlie Crist

@MarcACaputo

Whenever a statewide political race is decided by a percentage point or so, it can be argued that every little thing played a major role in a campaign's win or loss.

And so it is with Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist, who lost to the Republican by 1.1 percentage points, or 65,838 votes. In 2010, Scott beat Democrat Alex Sink by 1.2 percentage points, or 61,550. So Scott's overall margin in raw votes increased by just 4,288 while the number of ballots cast increased by 581,974. 

Yes, it was a tight race. Money played a big part. Money doesn't buy an election. But it puts a downpayment on it. And Scott not only outmuscled Crist in media message, the governor vastly improved his numbers in North Florida.

In the three North Florida media markets Scott won, he improved his 2010 margin by almost 90,000 and and in the two he lost, Scott also improved his margin by nearly 20,000.

Crist improved on Sink's margins in the two Southeast Florida media markets by 96,000. But, consider how Scott fared in North Florida, it wasn't enough.

Here's our first day-after story on the race and the graphic that went with it, breaking down the media markets.

Fixed Graphic for Marc

November 04, 2014

South Florida's light voting great for Rick Scott, bad for Charlie Crist. But indies might save the Dem

@MarcACaputo

As the polls are about to close, Gov. Rick Scott's team should be feeling a little more confident because Democrat-rich South Florida is doing what it does in midterms: not voting in strong numbers.

Miami-Dade is reporting that 183,000 people had voted as of 6 p.m. on Election Day. Add that to the 293,000 who had absentee and early voted, and the county's turnout was just under 37 percent with one hour to go. 

Broward County might be in a similar position.

As of 3:15 p.m., when turnout gets slowest, Broward County reported Election Day turnout at 136,000. That was on top of 248,000 who had voted before Election Day by early and absentee ballot. And that puts turnout at roughly 36 percent.

In a sign of desperation, Charlie Crist’s campaign just issued a press release saying it wants the polls to stay open longer in Broward. It claims, among other things, that voters were turned away at the polls due to re-precincting. Miami Herald reporters found signs of this, but they weren't widespread.  Download Crist motion for polls to stay open.

Considering overall state turnout could be at 49 percent, this could signify higher performance by Republican counties and Republican voters. And thus, a likelier Scott win.

Here's what we reported in April about South Florida turnout:

Year after year, voters in the Democratic region are among the state’s worst when it comes to showing up at the polls. It was most glaring in 2010 when Scott won office and statewide voter turnout was a meager 49 percent.

The turnout in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties was worse: about 41, 40 and 47 percent, respectively. If those three counties had voted at the state average, Democrat Alex Sink likely would have beaten Scott by nearly 250,000 votes statewide. Instead, Sink lost by 61,550 votes.

Crist vows that won’t happen again.

Crist's campaign said it's hammering South Florida voters to get them out, but the reporters we have at the polls aren't seeing much action.

Our freelancer Theo Karantsalis reports light turnout in Liberty City, an African-American area. And he just encountered a voter who's..... voting for Scott.

The Caleb Center, which drew hundreds of Souls to the Polls churchgoers on Sunday, was open for early voting only.

Voters continue to park near the Caleb Center and carefully walk across busy NW 54th Street to cast ballots at the Mildred and Claude Pepper Towers.

"I came out in the cold and dark to vote for a republican," said Shirley Smith, 47, an African-American from Liberty City, who voted the republican ticket in the 2010 and 2012 elections. "I am so tired of people thinking the government owes them something."

Smith, who first looked to see if anyone was listening, then added: "I know I am the minority around here, but my vote counts even if it's different."

There is no line and few people at the neighborhood polling site located in the 2300 block of NW 54th Street. Polls close at 7 p.m.

This doesn't mean Crist has lost and that Scott has won. Not by a longshot. One analyst said the story of the night might be independents, who are leaning Crist. 

In Pasco, Pinellas, and Hernando counties in the Tampa Bay region, independent voters are coming out in droves, respectively: 22, 23 and 20 percent.

Even in GOP-rich Collier Countty, Rick Scott's home base, 20 percent of the voters are independents.

Republicans are boasting that they have more supervoters (those who voted in 4 of 4 elections, known as 4/4) to come out. But Democrats note that they're turning out more infrequent voters. Here's one Democrats' analysis:

As of end of the day yesterday, 31.0% of Democrats who had cast a ballot didn't vote in 2010, 43.4% of IND/NPA, 22.7% of Republicans. Dems have very nearly 80K more people who have cast ballots that DIDN'T vote in 2010 than Republicans.

On the other end of things, Dems have 54.2% of their 2/2s (and 49.3% of 4/4s) who had not yet voted as of COB yesterday; those numbers are remarkably similar for Reps: 53.7% of 2/2 and 49.5% of 4/4.

But, as GOP consultant Marc Reichelderfer told Adam Smith at the Tampa Bay Times, Republicans have more reliable Republicans voting:

"What I'm looking at is how many 4/4 voters and how many 3/4 voters are still out there waiting to vote," said Reichelderfer, suggesting that the Republicans and Democrats are roughly equal on 3/4 voters.

Add that 130,000 almost certain 4/4 votes today to the roughly 100,000 early and absentee vote advantage Republicans had going into today, and the 230,000 GOP lead looks tough to crack barring an massive Democratic turnout operation, he said.

After the 2010 cycles, elections officials cleaned up their lists of voters automatically receiving absentee ballots. The result, Reichelderfer said, that that many formerly consistent Republican mail voters have been shifted to election day voters, while the Obama campaign in 2012 shifted many of its most reliable election day voters to mail voters.

Poll averages: Race deadlocked, Scott could lead Crist by 0.6% pre-Election Day ballots

@MarcACaputo

Heading into Election Day, Gov. Rick Scott and Charlie Crist are tied at 42 percent each, according to the averages of 20 public polls released in October, when absentee-ballot and then in-person early voting began.*

Technically, Scott has a lead of .07 percentage points (42.03 to Crist's 41.96). That's not really a lead at all. Assuming the undecideds don't vote, Scott gets 45.9 percent to Crist's 45.8. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie could pull 8 percent of the vote, about the same percentage as the undecided, who are an X-factor in all of this.**

Unlike prior poll-unskewing attempts, this exercise uses polls taken as people were casting pre-Election Day ballots, 3.1 million as of this morning. The GOP led Democrats in ballots cast by 98,000, 43-39 percent (3.3 percentage points). But independents account for about 18 percent of those voters, and they're leaning Crist by an average of about 6 percentage points.

Put it all together, and Scott's lead in early votes is 42.6 percent to Crist's 42 percent.

That's a 0.6 percentage-point lead.

That's not much of a lead at all, considering Democrats have a registered voter edge of about 455,000 over Republicans (obviously, not all vote). Scott's lead could be higher or lower because this analysis includes the undecided. Take out the undecided, Scott's lead remains at 0.6 percent.

Still, a lead is a lead.

What does Crist need to do to have a real shot at wining under this scenario? Have Democrats today turnout by 2 percentage points more than Republicans (assuming there's 49 percent turnout). Democrats would need to cast 42 percent of the Election Day ballots, Republicans 40 percent and independents 18 percent. If that happens, Republicans would still wind up casting slightly more overall votes in the election (including early and absentee ballots).

Possible? Yes. 

Probable? Not judging by history. 

Continue reading "Poll averages: Race deadlocked, Scott could lead Crist by 0.6% pre-Election Day ballots" »