November 04, 2014

Obama cuts last-minute radio ad for Charlie Crist

@PatriciaMazzei

An ad for Democrat Charlie Crist for Florida governor featuring President Barack Obama has been airing since at least Monday on a Miami radio station with a predominantly African-American audience.

"This is it, Florida," the ad begins. "This is Barack Obama."

A female narrator explains how voters can find their polling place. Then it's Obama again:

"So if want to raise Florida's minimum wage, go vote," the president says. "If you believe that every child deserves a fair shot, and that it's wrong to cut scholarships and funding for schools, go vote. If you want a governor who will fight for you, not just the wealthy and the powerful, go vote for Charlie Crist."

"Don't let anyone or anything keep you from voting," Obama concludes.

We tried to get a full recording or script from the Crist campaign Monday, but received no response -- either because they were tied up on the day before Election Day, or because the ad was intended to go under the radar. Obama is unpopular, and many Democratic campaigns have been leery of promoting their ties to the president, though Vice President Joe Biden stumped for Crist in South Florida on Sunday.

The ad is airing on at least one Miami station, WEDR-FM 99.1, better known 99 Jamz.

UPDATE: Republican Gov. Rick Scott has weighed in on the ad with a statement.

"After months of waiting, President Barack Obama is back on the campaign trail for Charlie Crist," the statement reads in part." We already know Barack Obama's policies are on the ballot in this election because he told us that himself. But, his new ad for Charlie Crist today means Charlie Crist wants you to know that too."

As polls open, 3.1m already voted; Dems cut GOP early ballot lead to 98k, 3.3%

@MarcACaputo

Regardless of who wins or loses or if there's a recount, this is the last tally of pre-Election Day ballots and, like the others, it's good news bad news for both sides.

First the overall picture: as of Election Day morning, more than 3.1 million people had voted. That's probably more than half of the likely voters in this election (assuming a turnout of 49 or 50 percent).

Republicans go into Election Day with a lead in early and absentee ballots of about 98,401 ballots, 3.2 percentage points. Yesterday, the GOP lead was 100,583, or 3.3 points.

Since the GOP trails Democrats in registered voters by about 455,000, that's the great news for them. It's also far better than the 155,000 early-ballot deficit the GOP faced in 2012, when President Obama won by about 1 percentage point.

The bad news for the GOP: it's a far smaller lead than the 277,000 early ballot lead they held in the last midterm election, 2010, when Rick Scott was dragged to shore on a red wave of conservatism.

And Democrats' absente-ballot return rate has been proportionately increasing. So the absentee ballots that flow in today won't give the GOP a major boost. If this morning's numbers are any indication, it will add a net 2,000 votes to the GOP lead, putting it back at 100,000. But, since in-person early voting stopped Sunday, the Democrats didn't get to make any more large gains before Election Day.

What effects will independents have? They're about 18 percent of the early and absentee vote. Most polls indicate they're trending toward Democrat Charlie Crist. Will it be enough? What effect will Florida's medical-marijuana initiative (still popular, but failing to hit the needed 60 percent in most recent polls) have on Crist (who supports it, while Scott opposes it)? Then there's NextGen Climate, the liberal group that has raised about $16 million to hurt Scott and help Crist.

And don't forget one of the most important elections forecasting data points: the actual weather forecast. It rained in liberal-leaning Palm Beach and Broward counties this morning. It's blustery in liberal-leaning Miami-Dade. These counties have underperformed in turnout and, if there's a repeat, that's bad for Crist and great for Scott. A little bit of rain is enough to keep already flakey voters home.

Here are prior Florida Voters posts and today's early vote and absentee ballot numbers:

PARTY          EV           %
REP         518,499 39.6%
DEM         555,473 42.4%
IND         235,226 18.0%
TOTAL       1,309,198  
     
     
PARTY          AB's            %
REP         807,137 0.44864
DEM         671,762 0.373393
IND         320,175 0.177967
TOTAL       1,799,074  
     
     
PARTY       EVAB            %
REP       1,325,636 42.6%
DEM       1,227,235 39.5%
IND         555,401 17.9%
TOTAL       3,108,272  

November 03, 2014

Florida: Mega checks, super donors led to costliest mid-term election in the nation

Duelling elex signsIt’s now official: This year’s state elections are the costliest in Florida history, and the nation’s most expensive.

Republican and Democratic candidates for statewide and legislative offices and their political parties in the 2014 election cycle raised a staggering $345 million, according to a preliminary analysis by the Herald/Times and the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics.

Campaign finance reports filed with the Florida Division of Elections by Friday’s deadline show that huge contributions from out-of-state mega donors helped to make 2014 the most expensive Florida governor’s race on record. The Center For Responsive Politics has concluded that, as a result, Florida has the most expensive mid-term election in the nation.

“Money always speaks,” said Susan MacManus, political science professor at the University of South Florida who runs the Sunshine State Survey of voters opinions.

As voters head to the polls Tuesday, the infusion of big checks from deep pockets increases voter disenchantment, she said. “The average person says: ‘When this money is gushing in to the political system why should I get involved?’ They see the message is all about tearing down, not building up, and they tune it out.”

The flood of cash helped to fuel unprecedented spending on a barrage of mostly-negative television ads. Records show that Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist have spent at least $104 million on television alone, saturating the airwaves at an unprecedented rate. Story here. 

Crist and Taddeo travel through the heart of their base on final day

By Kathryn Varn and Amy Sherman

Crist and Taddeo in MiamiCharlie Crist and running mate Annette Taddeo launched a day-long bus tour through the heart of their base on Monday beginning with a get out the vote rally in the minority-rich communities of Allapattah and Lauderdale Lakes. 

“Looks like it’s going to be tight,” Crist said, stepping off his tour bus to about 100 supporters at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Hall in Miami Dade County. “But it’s going to be good.”

Joining them were Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten, whose organization has been an important financial supporter.

Crist greeted fans and campaign staff by name as he made his way to a small room in the International Brotherhood hall.

“Did you vote?” he asked one woman while hugging and shaking hands.

“I voted the first day!” she said.

Supporters showed up at the site about an hour before Crist did, holding signs: “African Americans for Charlie.” “Hispanics for Charlie.” “Women choose Charlie.”

A pickup truck decorated with American flags and a Rick Scott banner crawled around the block, blaring Spanish music as the driver stuck a peace sign out the window.

Crist supporters booed while a group of about 30 Scott backers cheered the truck on, including Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera.

“Rick Scott… he’s not a smooth politician, but he’s a guy that’s delivered results,” Lopez-Cantera said. “I find it disingenuous for Charlie to come back and criticize the tough decisions Rick Scott made when he didn’t even want to make them himself.”

Continue reading "Crist and Taddeo travel through the heart of their base on final day" »

St. Pete Polls: Charlie Crist and Rick Scott tied at 45%

@MarcACaputo

St. Pete Polls, a robo-polling firm from (of all places) St. Petersburg, releases this morning's Goldilocks poll.

GOP-leaning 0ptimus finds the race for governor tied, but leaning 2 points in Gov. Rick Scott's favor.

Quinnipiac University finds the race for governor tied, but leaning 1 point in Democrat Charlie Crist's favor

And St. Pete Polls shows Scott and Crist basically tied at 45 percent. By decimal point, it's Crist 44.9 percent and Scott 44.6 percent. Those toplines are remarkably similar to Public Policy Polling's survey yesterday.

Download St. Pete Poll

 

0ptimus FL poll: Rick Scott 43%, Charlie Crist 41%; Wyllie 10%

@MarcACaputo

Don't like this morning's Quinnipiac University poll showing Democrat Charlie Crist ahead of Gov. Rick Scott by an inside-the-error-margin amount of 1 percentage point?

Then check out 0ptimus, a GOP-leaning firm that released its latest robo-poll survey showing Scott leading Crist by an inside-the-error-margin amount of 2 percentage points.

Takeaway: Both polls show a tie. Other polls show a tie. It's probably a tie and, gulp, this election will be won or lost by turnout on Election Day. Now how cliche is that?

Click our Polls tab for more on, well, polls. And here's 0ptimus' analysis:

Continue reading "0ptimus FL poll: Rick Scott 43%, Charlie Crist 41%; Wyllie 10%" »

Q Poll: Charlie Crist 42%, Rick Scott 41%, Wyllie (7%) draws more from Crist

@MarcACaputo

Yup, it's still tied.

Quinnipiac University this morning released a pre-Election Day poll showing Democrat Charlie Crist nursing a 1 percentage point lead over Gov. Rick Scott -- making the race basically a dead heat. Quinnipiac didn't include its poll demographics in its press release. So all you polling unskewers will have to wait.

Here's the press release:

Continue reading "Q Poll: Charlie Crist 42%, Rick Scott 41%, Wyllie (7%) draws more from Crist" »

Poll-prediction guru Nate Silver gives Charlie Crist a "slight" 60% chance of winning

@MarcACaputo

Missed this a few days ago: Nate Silver, who accurately forecast the 2012 elections (including Florida) is out with a batch of predictions and, despite the tied polling and the GOP's lead in banking pre-Election Day votes in the Sunshine State, his data show the Democrat is more likely to win the governor's race.

From Five Thirty Eight:

Charlie Crist of Florida, the former Republican turned Democrat, is just slightly more likely than not to oust Republican Gov. Rick Scott from office. A slightly safer bet for a Democratic pickup is in Kansas, where Paul Davis has a 81 percent chance of beating Republican incumbent Sam Brownback.

Silver's chart shows Crist's chances of winning at 60 percent. More here

November 02, 2014

Will Souls to the Polls be a boom or bust for Charlie Crist?

@MarcACaputo et al

Sunday was for spiritual as well as political salvation, a day in Florida politics for “Souls to the Polls.”

The last day for in-person early voting, Sunday is a time when black voters have flexed their political muscle and cast ballots in droves after church. The lift was heavy Sunday: help the Democratic Party — and especially Charlie Crist — eat into Republicans’ 126,000 lead in casting pre-Election Day ballots.

In a nod to black voters’ importance, Crist campaigned with Vice President Joe Biden at Mount Hermon AME Church in Fort Lauderdale. Pastors throughout Tampa Bay urged the faithful to go vote. Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton respectively stumped in Jacksonville and Miami.

Miami-Dade saw nearly 16,500 voters Sunday, a 53 percent increase from Saturday. And Broward’s increase in a day was larger still: 60 percent, to 19,802.

Republicans, unlike in past years, were determined not to let Democrats run up the score on Sunday. Gov. Rick Scott visited First Baptist Church Piney Grove in Lauderdale Lakes. Scott then rallied with Jeb Bush in Miami-Dade’s heavily Hispanic Republican city of Hialeah.

“Charlie Crist has gotta go,” Bush said to wild applause, joking a moment later that “my mother didn’t want me to say that.” Bush later told reporters that Scott has “kept his word. His opponent is someone who will say anything, do anything to get elected.”

Continue reading "Will Souls to the Polls be a boom or bust for Charlie Crist?" »

PPP: Rick Scott and Charlie Crist tied at 44 percent, medical marijuana dying

@MarcACaputo

It has been said for months that the Florida governor's race will go down to the wire, that no candidate leads outside the margin of error in any reputable poll.

Now comes Public Policy Polling to put an exclamation on that with a poll showing Gov. Rick Scott and Charlie Crist tied at 44 percent each.

"We don't believe in reporting to decimal points but the one time we make an exception is tied final polls- Crist 44.0, Scott 43.8," PPP said on Twitter. "To give you an idea of just how this close this final Florida poll came out- 526 respondents picked Crist, 524 picked Scott."

PPP also finds medical marijuana dying at 53 percent, well below the 60 percent needed to pass a constitutional amendment.

Libertarian Adrian Wyllie "is hurting Crist," PPP reported. "His supporters say they'd pick Crist over Scott 43/18. Take Wyllie out and Crist leads Scott 47/46."

A look at the crosstabs shows that PPP has a similar finding to Quinnipiac University: a big advantage that Crist has among independents, 13 percentage points in this cast. The crosstabs:

     Overall      GOP       DEM         IND
Scott  44% 81% 18% 28%
Crist 44% 12% 76% 41%
Wyllie 6% 4% 3% 13%

As has been stated in the past, PPP is liberal-leaning but has generally produced pretty on-point polls. It is a robo-polling firm, so it primarily surveys people who have landlines and thus it could lean slightly conservative owing to its technological limits (cellphone voters tend to be more liberal, etc.). Also, PPP doesn't call off a voter list; respondents self-identify. So its polls need to be pegged to self-ID polls (such as exit polls). That's a disclaimer for all you unskewers who will say the independents are too high. They're not, judging by past exit polls.

PPP's survey was 39 percent Democcrat, 37 percent GOP and 23 percent independent. If you average the last two exit polls for the last two midterms, it would yield an R-D-I of 38-36-26 percent. Apply that to PPP's crosstabs, and the race would still be well within the margin of error: Scott 45 percent, Crist 43 percent.

For the last post unskewing the polling, click here. For more on polls in this race, click on the Polls tab here. Here's the PPP poll:  Download FLResults