September 13, 2012

FL poll: Obama 49-Romney 44. Bill Nelson up by 14.

A just-released NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of likely voters: finds President Obama with an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney, 49-44 percent.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds an overwhelming 14 percentage point lead against Republican challenger Connie Mack - 16 percentage points among registered voters. It's the second poll to show such a big, double-digit lead by Nelson.

Nationally, the big story is the Florida poll and identical results in Virginia found by Marist.vObama holds a bigger advantage in Ohio where he leads Romney 50-43. Assuming that's 1) not an outlier and 2) holds through election day, the Ohio numbers mean it's lights out there for Romney, who needs both Florida and Ohio in the win column. But this is one poll. And there's time --though it's running out.

"Obama has double-digit lead in all three states when it comes to foreign-policy handling," notes NBC's Mark Murray.

Also boosting Obama: he and Romney are essentially tied on handling the economy in Florida and Virginia, Murray reports. In Ohio, a more-union friendly state than those in the South, Obama has 4-point edge over "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" Romney.

Note: the results of this poll in Florida mirrors a survey from SurveyUSA, but differs from a Florida business group's poll (taken by a firm that typically surveys for Republicans) that found inverse results.

**Post has been updated and corrected (pardon the two prior typos as this was typed on a BlackBerry [yes, I still use one] at my kid's soccer practice).

Bill Clinton and Al Gore to raise money for surging Sen. Bill Nelson in Miami

Picture 6Does good news come in threes for Sen. Bill Nelson?

Fresh off a SurveyUSA poll that shows Nelson is stomping Republican Congressman Connie Mack 47-36%, there's word that former President Bill Clinton and former Vice President Al Gore are leading a Sept. 27 fundraiser for the senator at the Brickell law office of Berger Singerman.

Nelson already leads Mack in cash raised. Chances are, this fundraiser will only widen that gap.

SurveyUSA FL Poll, Obama 48-Romney-44. Sen. Nelson "dramatically" beating Mack by 11

File this under the don't-like-that-poll-look-at-this-one category. This Survey USA survey (missed it yesterday) shows Obama holding an inside-the-error-margin lead over Romney (48-44). It's almost the mirror opposite of a poll released by a Florida business group today. A difference between the methods of the polls: SurveyUSA is a robo-poll and McLaughlin & Associates conducts live-call surveys.

The SurveyUSA poll also surveyed Florida's Senate race and finds that incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson is starting to blow away Congressman Connie Mack 47-36 -- a 17-point shift in Nelson's favor.

Other interesting tidbit: Voter fraud (45%) is seen as a bigger problem than voter suppression (33).

Here's the write-up from SurveyUSA:

In pivotal Florida, Barack Obama comes out of the Democratic National Convention 4 points atop Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Romney leads among Florida's white voters, but that lead is erased by Florida's minorities: Obama leads by 16 points among Cubans, by 36 points among non-Cuban Hispanics, and by 67 points among African Americans.

Romney leads by 5 points among men, but that is trumped by Obama's 12 point lead among women. Romney leads in Northwest, Northeast and Southwest Florida, but that advantage is overcome by Obama's strength in Southeast Florida, and Obama's comparative strong standing in critical Central FL, where Obama today leads by 6. Romney leads among voters age 50+, but Obama leads by even more among voters age 18 to 49. Party affiliation cancels itself out: Romney holds 84% of Republicans, Obama holds 84% of Democrats, Independents split. Obama leads among those earning less than $80,000 a year, Romney leads among those earning more than $80,000 a year.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, conducted at a time when Obama attack ads about Bain Capital were airing unanswered, there is effectively no change in the race. Then, Obama led by 5 points. Now, Obama leads by 4 points, a nominal 1-point difference. Obama today has a Plus 1 Net Favorability, Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability.

In the contest for United States Senator, Democrat Bill Nelson is in dramatically better shape than he was when SurveyUSA last polled the contest 8 weeks ago. Then, Republican Connie Mack led Nelson by 6 points. Today, Nelson leads Mack by 11, a 17-point left turn. The change is particularly dramatic in Central FL, where, 8 weeks ago, Mack led by 5, now trails by 15, a 20-point swing. Among Independents, Mack had led by 4, now trails by 14, an 18-point swing.

Continue reading "SurveyUSA FL Poll, Obama 48-Romney-44. Sen. Nelson "dramatically" beating Mack by 11" »

September 05, 2012

Where's Bill Nelson? And where's Florida at Democrats' convention?

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Bill who? Nelson where?

The embattled senior senator from the nation’s biggest battleground state has almost no profile at the Democratic National Convention.

Bill Nelson neither asked for nor was offered a speaking role. He held no big public events. He didn’t appear at the Florida delegation breakfast.

But he did stop by and visit delegates on the floor, grant a handful of news-media interviews, attend a fundraiser and then hustle out of Charlotte N.C. after less than a day on the ground.

It’s vintage Nelson: low key and averse to overt partisanship — the essence of a political convention. Nelson, who has shied away from President Barack Obama while backing much of his agenda, didn’t have a speaking role in the 2000 convention, when he first successfully ran for Senate, in 2004 or in 2008.

“The campaign’s in Florida, not in Charlotte,” Nelson explained. “I start in Panama City and start working back from the Panhandle out east on Thursday. That’s where the campaign is.”

Nelson just isn’t the type of speaker a convention would feature anyway, according to those who know him.

“His style is more tailored to small groups, speaking with voters one-on-one,” said David Beattie, a pollster who works for Nelson.

“I don’t know all of the inner workings of how a convention is put together,” Beattie said, “but it all depends on who fits their messaging, what’s right for the hall.”

By that standard: Florida isn’t right for the Democratic National Convention.

More here

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August 30, 2012

NY Post: Connie Mack sponsored bill to help donor get $2b from Argentina

New York Post:

Hedge-fund heavyweight Paul Singer... and his employees have been a top contributor to 23 Republicans running for Congress, but few received more money than Rep. Connie Mack.

Elliott Management employees are Mack’s top financial backer, giving a total of $38,413, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Mack is close to Singer in another way. Several months before he announced his Senate candidacy, Mack was the leading sponsor of a bill designed to pressure Argentina to pay Elliott $2 billion that the hedge fund claims it is owed.

More here

August 20, 2012

Connie Mack links Akin's 'legitimate rape' with Biden's 'chains.' What about 'forcible rape?'

Florida Senate candidate Connie Mack joined the GOP chorus in condemning the remarks of fellow GOP Congressman Todd Akin, who had said he opposes rape-and-incest exceptions to an abortion ban because pregnancy is nearly impossible in cases of "legitimate rape."

But Mack didn't stop there. He drew a link with Vice-President Joe Biden's "put y'all in chains" comment last week, which many (mainly Republicans) see as race-baiting.

The press release:

Responding to outrageous and offensive comments made in the past week by Vice President Joe Biden and Representative Todd Akin, Congressman Connie Mack made the following statement:

"Like Joe Biden's comments last week, I find Todd Akin's comments made Sunday to be just as outrageous and offensive. Such insulting and offensive remarks from Joe Biden and Todd Akin have no place in our political discourse."

Mack, incidentally, was one of 277 cosponsors (almost all Republican, including Akin) of H.R. 3, No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act. One version of the act used the phrase "forcible rape." Abortion-rights groups objected strenuously. And now they're drawing a connection between the "forcible rape" phrase and "legitimate rape." DNC Chair/Broward Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz linked GOP vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan with the bill and Akin's remarks last night.

Obviously, more to come.

'Legitimate rape' gaffe in Missouri could be bad news for Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida

Nothing can clarify or take back a phrase like "legitimate rape."

When Missouri GOP Senate candidate and Congressman Todd Akin uttered the two words Sunday, he tried to take it back as an "off the cuff" remark in explaining why he opposes rape-and-incest exceptions to an abortion ban. The Republican presidential ticket distanced themselves from Akin. Other Republicans started writing off his campaign to unseat incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill.

And that could be bad news for Florida Sen. Bill Nelson.

Here's why: Nelson's supporters were hoping that the GOP Super PACs might let up on him and start heading to the Show Me State as he started to bloody up Republican Congressman Connie Mack, whose campaign has made some Republican insiders in Florida a little nervous. As noted here last month: "Nelson's camp probably hopes to tar Mack, hurt him in the polls in time for the August Republican National Convention in Tampa, slow his fundraising (reports are due about the time of the RNC) and hope the Super PACs go somewhere else if they believe Mack's not worth the investment. Florida is a large TV state and it might be more cost-effective for the Super PACs to go elsewhere, say less-expensive and more-competitive Missouri, to pick up a Senate seat."

Then Akin opened his mouth on KTVI-TV in Missouri as he explained pregnancies that arise from rape.

“It seems to me, from what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare,” he said. “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let’s assume that maybe that didn’t work or something: I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be of the rapist, and not attacking the child.”

Continue reading "'Legitimate rape' gaffe in Missouri could be bad news for Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida" »

August 15, 2012

Ann Romney to raise coin for Connie Mack at RNC baseball-themed event

Picture 1Now that the primary's over and he's the official Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Rep. Connie Mack is ready to cash in on all the goodwill with Presidential candidate Mitt Romney's campaign.

Romney's wife, Ann Romney, is a special gues of Mack's "Evening at the Ballpark" fundraiser at the Hyatt Regency Tampa from 5-7 p.m. Aug. 28 during the Republican National Convention week. Host conribution: $10,000. Reception contribution: $1,000 per person.

Mack is the great grandson of baseball great Connie Mack.

August 14, 2012

On Election Day, Connie Mack hits the gridiron

-4Luckily, CNN told us today Rep. Connie Mack was likely to win today's Republican primary for U.S. Senate. Really. We had no clue. In fact, reporters today thought Mack was trying to win the vote of Miami Dolphins DB Nolan Carroll, who happens to be the son of Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll.

Mack faces little known former Rep. Dave Weldon, Plant City businessman Mike McCalister and Marielena Stuart in today's primary. The winner (Mack) faces Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.

HBO's "Hard Knocks" crew was also out today at the camp as well. They should stick around and cover the general election between Mack and Nelson. It has all the makings of a contact sport.


Photos courtesy of the Mack campaign