National Journal has released a list of the 30 U.S. House seats most likely to switch parties in the Nov. 4 election. The Washington D.C.-based publication ranked Florida's 26th congressional district, which extends from Westchester to Key West, as number 16:
16. FL-26: Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia running for reelection. Garcia also faces a prized Republican recruit in Miami-Dade County School Board member Carlos Curbelo. The National Republican Congressional Committee has run repeated ads on Garcia's ethics issues—his former campaign manager pleaded guilty to absentee-ballot fraud. But Curbelo has suffered from some bad press, too: He was recently captured on camera calling Social Security a "Ponzi scheme" while talking to a group of College Republicans. An early September internal poll for Curbelo showed him with a 4-point lead. The next couple weeks will show us whether Curbelo's poll was on the money or optimistic—and whether his comments have affected the race.
Another contested Florida race, for the 2nd congressional district in the Panhandle, ranked 10.