3.5 million FL early ballots in; Dems lead by 76,000. But it's not like 2008

About 3.5 million Floridians have already cast absentee and in-person early voting and Democrats have an edge of about 76,000 ballots cast before the polls re-opened this morning.

Expect that to continue to grow over the next two days of in-person early voting, which Democrats dominate, especially in South Florida, which is why the GOP Legislature and Gov. Rick Scott effectively shortened early voting days. Democrats have rolled up a 156,000 early vote edge while Republicans lead in absentee ballots case by about 80,000. If every Democrat and Republican who requested an absentee ballot voted it, the GOP absentee-ballot lead would be cut by half.

Most polls show Mitt Romney's winning, and Republicans note that Democrats won't have the early vote advantage they had in 2008 (when they led by anywhere from 250,000 to 363,000 ballots, depending on how you analyze the data).

Well, shortening early voting days from 14 to eight will, by definition, help shorten the number of early votes. Understand also that, relative to the actual early voting hours available in South Florida in 2008, early voting time has been cut 20 percent, or 24 total hours. And South Florida favors President Obama the most.

However, Democrats are barely matching their raw early vote numbers compared to four years ago. So there's an enthusiasm gap relative to 2008 as well.

Democrats also point out that Republicans have been talking a better game than they've produced on the ground. Republicans predicted they'd be up in early ballots cast on Election Day. It's pretty clear they won't be. The Democratic total vote margin increases with each day of early voting.

So what happens on Election Day? May the best ground game win.

Early votes

Party	EV Total	%
DEM	770,892	46%
REP	614,988	37%
IND	286,988	17%
Total	1,672,868

Absentee votes

Party	AB Total	%
REP	781,043	44%
DEM	700,970	39%
IND	308,646	17%
Total	1,790,659

Cumulative EVAB

Party	EVAB	%
DEM	1,471,862	42%
REP	1,396,031	40%
IND	595,634	17%
Total	3,463,527

Outstanding absentee ballots:

Party	Outstanding	%
REP	362,920	36%
DEM	406,634	41%
IND	230,042	23%
Total	999,596

President Obama's Sunday reelection rally set for McArthur High School in Hollywood

From a press release:

Grassroots Event with President Obama in Hollywood, Florida

EVENT LOCATION: McArthur High School Football Field (6501 Hollywood Blvd. Hollywood FL, 33204) DOORS OPEN: 12:30 PM EST, Sunday, November 4th, 2012 Ticket Distribution Information for Members of the Public: Tickets are still available for the President’s event in Hollywood, Florida. The event is free and open to the public, but tickets are required for entrance.

Tickets are available online at http://OFA.BO/Hollywood. Tickets are also available at the following locations beginning tomorrow, Friday, November 2nd beginning at 10:00 AM EST.

Benghazi, Sandy and the politics of disaster

Blown away by Hurricane Sandy: News of the Sept. 11 attacks in Benghazi, Libya.

But the coverage is returning as Sandy’s floodwater’s recede and Republicans press the Obama Administration for more answers about the deadly attacks in the Middle East.

“I think there’s classified information the public should know about eventually but there’s no reason for it to be classified,” Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a member of the Select Committee on Intelligence, said, declining to discuss what classified information he has or has not seen.

Rubio said he hopes for more public information after his committee holds a closed-door hearing on the attacks Nov. 15.

Florida GOP's early vote spin: 96=120.

In 2008, with long lines forming at the early voting polls in South Florida, then-Republican Gov. Charlie Crist extended early voting hours by four hours daily for six days, or the equivalent of two full extra days.

In math terms, that would look like this: 4 X 6 = 24.

So that meant that, in 2008, the people of South Florida had 120 cumulative hours of early voting because the cumulative hours had been capped at 96.

In math terms, what Crist did looks like this: 96 + 24 = 120.

But you wouldn't know that from looking at the Republican Party of Florida's latest press release designed to give cover to Gov. Rick Scott for his likely refusal to keep the polls open longer this year. RPOF is good at math. It news that more early voting hours = more votes for President Obama.

"Florida has a law in regard to early voting--this law provides for 96 hours of operation for early voting locations," the RPOF statement says, "the exact same amount of hours as 2008."

Not quite. Not exact. Not the same.

It's true that, in 2008 and in 2011, the maximum statutory hours remain the same. But the actual early voting hours are not the same for about a quarter of the early voting electorate: those who live in South Florida's three big counties, Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Duval, Hillsborough and Orange (the number three, four and five early vote counties, respectively) are also majorly affected. Add these six together, and the counties account for about 44 percent of the in-person early vote ballots cast.

But we'll stick to South Florida, where the polls were opened 120 total hours for early voting in 2008. Now it looks like 96. That's a real reduction of 24 hours, or 20 percent relative to 2008.

Here's the math: (120-96)/120=.2/100

3m FL ballots already cast; Dems open 59,000 early ballot lead over GOP. Is it enough for Obama?

More than 3 million Floridians have already voted, according to new early and absentee ballot (EVAB) numbers that show Democrats continue to add to their total lead over Republicans: about 59,000.

Democrats have cast 133,000 more early votes, Republicans cast about 74,000 more absentee ballots. That could be as much as a third of the electorate. (Totals below)

But is it enough for President Obama? In 2008, Obama had about a 280,000 cumulative early vote lead before the polls opened on Election Day. At the current rate of growth, it would take Obama nine more days to get there. But that would be Nov. 13, a week after the election. And early in-person voting ends Saturday.

Guess who cut early voting days? Republicans. In 2008, including an executive order from Gov. Charlie Crist, polls stayed open a cumulative 120 hours over 14 days. The Legislature and current Gov. Rick Scott cut those days to eight and capped cumulative hours at 96. Republicans point out that the new early voting law gives the right for early voting on weekends. But in South Florida, where a quarter of early voters cast ballots, citizens had two Sundays of early voting. Now they have only one.

There have been long lines, cries of disenfranchisement and even a "nightmare" of a problem for early voters. Democrats want Scott to exend early voting. Scott probably won't. Story is here.

UPDATED Positive campaign? Romney gives Obama the Chavez-Castro-Che treatment in Spanish ad

Yesterday, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was onstage in Miami talking about the need to unite the country and to stop all the attacks. On Spanish-language TV, though, Romney's campaign was anything but positive.

Since at least Tuesday, his campaign has begun heavily running this ad that links President Barack Obama with Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez, Fidel Castro's niece and communist revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara. The campaign, despite repeated requests, didn't furnish the ad. So please pardon the cheap iPhone video recording of (**) the spot that aired three times in one prime time Spanish-language news program Tuesday and at least four times on the same show Wednesday -- including twice in the same commercial break. (**) The campaign has now posted the ad online, below.

Mitt Romney runs pain-at-the-pump ads at South Florida gas stations

Mitt Romney's campaign announced a new spot for a captive audience: customers at gas stations equipped with video displays. And in case motorists didn't know fuel costs more these days, Romney's spot will more than remind them.

Obama Super PAC "connects the dots" between Rick Scott Medicare fraud and Mitt Romney

Priorities USA announced it would run a "Connect the Dots" ad in Florida linking the type of fraud that occurred in 1997 at Columbia/HCA under now-Gov Rick Scott and a company connected years ago to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

The Romney-Medicare fraud link is obviously disputed, and the Washington Post found fault with one line of attack about the matter when it was first raised by a Republican Super PAC backing Newt Gingrich. Whether this works in Florida or not isn't so clear. Remember: Scott was elected (albeit in a Republican wave year).

 

Obama campaign chief Jim Messina misquotes Florida tea-party activist’s email

In a conference call with reporters today, President Obama’s campaign manager boasted about the Democratic ground game and how the vagaries of the Electoral College disfavor Romney.

“We have the map and they have the myths,” Messina said.

But he then engaged in some myth-telling himself when he talked about the Obama campaign’s turnout machine in Florida (which is doing well).

“You don’t have to take my word for it,” Messina said. “A Republican in Florida had this to say yesterday in a memo, quote: ‘The Democratic turnout machine is cleaning our clock.’ End quote.”

But that wasn’t really the quote. And there's a little context he left out as well.

The email in question, reported first by WPTV in West Palm Beach, came from Palm Beach County tea party activist. It was about the strong Democratic turnout in Palm Beach County.

Messina’s comments, though, made it sound like the Republican was talking about the entire state, and in doing so misquoted the email that said “the Democrat turnout machine in the county has been very effective and they are cleaning our clock.”

Note the phrase “in the county.” It was utterly absent from what Messina said.

Another thing Messina left out? The sentiment that Romney will probably win: “Even if Romney wins the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races.”

Still, Messina’s right that there’s concern in Florida. But it’s on both sides. And while the trends look good for Obama right now, the polls don’t in Florida.

2.7m Floridians have voted (30%?). Dems stretch early ballot lead to nearly 49,000 over Republicans

The early vote and absentee ballot data (EV/AB) is in, and it shows that Democrats on the fourth day of voting in-person voting extended their lead over total Republican ballots cast by about 48,600**.

In all, Democrats edged Republicans by 118,000 early vote ballots, but Republicans extended their absentee-vote lead to more than 69,000.

Nearly 2.7 million ballots have been cast out of a total 12 million registered voters, 75 percent of whom will probably vote. That means about 30 percent of the ballots are already in.

There's a dispute between the Republican and Democratic parties about what the numbers all mean. Republicans claim Democrats in 2008 were up by a total of 134,000 ballots at this time (four days into early voting). That number does seem high, and the Democrats say it's not true and that Republicans are playing fast and loose with the numbers.

It is true that total early voting is down by Dems from 134,000 to about 118,00 four days in. But that's not the net EVAB number. That's just early voting. And one of the reasons for the decline is that Democrats have shifted some of their early voters in 08 to being absentee-ballot voters in 2012. And Democrats have closed the big AB gap with the GOP by about two thirds since 08.

President Obama, however, clearly has a problem in the polls. They show him winning the early vote, however he's losing independents. About 450,000 have already cast ballots and they account for about 20 percent of the electorate.

Either way, Democrats are still up. A lead is a lead. But can they keep it through Election Day?

The totals for EV

Party	EV total	%
Dem	517,909	47%
Rep	399,687	36%
Ind	182,016	17%
Total	1,099,612

For AB

Party	AB total	%
Rep	686,671	44%
Dem	617,053	39%
Ind	264,691	17%
Total	1,568,415

Cumulative:

Party	Total	%
Dem	1,134,962	43%
Rep	1,086,358	41%
Ind	446,707	17%
Total	2,668,027

Note: The numbers might be slightly different later in the day when updates are posted. Lafayette County didn't post its data this morning