PPP FL poll: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Connie Mack looking like a goner)

From Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats

PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49/48, flipping the numbers from each of our last two polls of the state which found Romney leading by a point. Every poll PPP has conducted in the state since the first Presidential debate has found a one point race.

Obama's leading in Florida based on his strength with women (54/45), African Americans (89/10), and voters under 30 (55/39). Romney is strong with men (53/43), whites (57/39), and seniors (53/46). Romney also has narrow advantages with Hispanics (54/46) and independents (50/43).

With favorable FL polls, Romney heads to Miami on Wednesday (Obama, Clinton in Orlando Monday)

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is heading to the University of Miami on Wednesday, according to the campaign.

The Romney visit will come just three days after a Miami Herald poll showed President Obama's numbers aren't where they need to be in Miami-Dade, Florida's most-populous county, County if he wants to carry the Sunshine State.

To win Florida, Obama needs a big lead in Miami-Dade, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 15 percentage points, 44-29 percent. Obama won Miami-Dade by a 16-point margin in 2008.

A Sunday Miami Herald poll, however, shows Obama is only winning Miami-Dade by 9 percentage points. As of Sunday morning, after the first day of in-person early voting, Democrats narrowly led Republicans in all 153,000 ballots (absentee and in-person) cast, 42-40 percent in Miami-Dade.

Romney's strategy: keep Obama from running up big numbers in Southeast Florida, the most-liberal region of the state. Romney is winning in conservative North Florida and a Tampa Bay Times poll Sunday showed the Republican is carrying the center of the state, nicknamed the I-4 Corridor, 51-45 percent over Obama.

Obama visits the heart of the I-4 Corridor, Orlando, on Monday with former President Bill Clinton. Vice-President Joe Biden will visit some area of the state on Wednesday.

Assuming the schedule holds, Wednesday marks the second time Romney has visited the University of Miami. Florida is must-win for Romney. Obama, who doesn't need Florida as badly as Romney, has visited UM three times this year.

 

With 1.6m Floridians having voted, Dems cut GOP absentee vote-lead in half in 1st early vote day

In just 12 hours of in-person early voting Saturday, Florida Democrats swamped the polls so heavily that they ran up a more than 39,000-vote margin over Republicans out of the nearly 300,000 votes that were cast at polling stations.

The Democratic vote was so big that it cut a Republican lead, built up during a month's worth of absentee-ballot voting, by about 60 percent. As of Saturday morning, Republicans were ahead of Democrats by nearly 66,000 absentee ballots cast, or 5 percentage points.

Factor in the day's worth of Democratic early voting, and that GOP lead is now just above 26,300, or 1.6 points. Add in Duval, whenever those numbers come in, and the GOP lead should be even smaller.

Here are the absentee and early vote ballots combined:

Party	Total votes	Total %	REP edge
REP	684,744	43%	26,310
DEM	658,434	41%
IND	262,516	16%
Total	1,605,694

 The early vote numbers:

Party	EV votes	EV%	DEM EV edge
DEM	145,470	49%	39,522
REP	105,948	35%
IND	47,219	16%
TOTAL	298,637

 The absentee vote numbers:

Party	AB votes	AB%	REP AB edge
REP	578,796	44%	65,832
DEM	512,964	39%
IND	215,297	16%
Total	1,307,057

In the Democrats' favor: the eight days of early voting continues today. And It's the only Sunday of early voting, when African-Americans prefer to head to the polls after church for their "Souls to the Polls" rallies. The Legislature, in shortening the Democrat-heavy early voting days, eliminated the Sunday-before-Election Day early voting.

As early vote-day dawns, 1.2m Floridians have voted by absentee ballot. GOP 5-point lead won't last long

The first day of in-person early voting, which Democrats typically dominate, began this morning with long lines and lots of enthusiasm (story here). The weather was also perfect in South Florida, a boon to President Obama, who needs a large turnout in the liberal stronghold to counteract GOP gains in absentee ballots, which have been mailed in (background on what it all means is here).

Right now, the GOP leads by about 5 percentage points. Around this time in 2008, Republicans led by more than 15 points. But then early in-person voting happened, and Democrats ran up a huge pre-Election Day lead.

But as of this morning, the GOP was still out front in voted ballots:

Party	Voted	%
REP	545,282	44%
DEM	482,742	39%
IND	200,493	16%
Total	1,228,517	Rich Text

Here are the outstanding requests (Note: If Democrats could get all their requesters to vote their absentee ballots, they'd be down by about 1.3 points):

Party	Requests	%
REP	548,317	38%
DEM	576,660	40%
IND	303,242	21%
Total	1,428,219

And here are the top 15 AB hotspots. Pinellas County, less than half the size of the largest county, Miami-Dade, is nevertheless No. 1 (Note: R/D=Republican-Democrat):

County	Total	REP	DEM	R/D
PIN	133,171	55,187	52,237	2,950
DAD	109,638	48,477	41,797	6,680
HIL	85,096	33,303	36,639	(3,336)
ORA	65,446	25,436	28,971	(3,535)
BRO	61,336	17,757	33,768	(16,011)
BRE	51,693	25,508	18,541	6,967
SAR	49,975	22,462	19,066	3,396
LEE	48,202	24,645	14,464	10,181
POL	40,851	17,566	17,326	240
VOL	38,271	16,819	14,732	2,087
PAS	36,265	15,406	14,117	1,289
PAL	34,385	10,598	17,883	(7,285)
CLL	32,233	19,493	7,066	12,427
DUV	30,495	15,358	11,221	4,137
MAN	27,670	13,585	9,533	4,052

From voting history to race, an analysis of the 1.1m absentee voters on early vote eve

More than 1.1 million Floridians have already voted by absentee ballot in the past month, which amounts to regular-season play in the contact sport of Florida politics.

The GOP is the top seed, edging Democrats by 5 percentage points in casting absentee ballots, which are typically mailed in.

But the playoffs start Saturday with in-person early voting. And that’s when Democrats — already narrowing the absentee-ballot gap with Republicans — typically excel.

"We are going to keep Florida blue," Ashley Walker, President Obama’s Florida director, boasted Friday in a conference call where the campaign touted facts and figures showing its strong organization.

However, the Obama campaign’s successful push to bank absentee ballots could cost it some bragging rights when it comes to showing big gains during the in-person early voting period that runs from Saturday to Nov. 3.

This year, about 38 percent of the absentee ballots cast by Democrats have come from those who voted early or voted on Election Day in 2008, according to an analysis of voting records by The Miami Herald and the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting.

That means Democrats could post relatively fewer early-voting increases over Republicans compared to 2008, when Democrats cast 500,000 more in-person early votes while the GOP cast about 250,000 more absentee ballots.

In all, about 9 million Floridians are expected to vote in this year’s presidential race, with about 40 percent casting ballots before Election Day, Nov. 6.

Republicans say Democrats have “cannibalized” their early voters this time.

But the Obama campaign dismisses that as “spin” and says it’s focused on getting its core voters out while trying to entice occasional or sporadic voters — who tend to back Obama — to show up at the polls.

Also, it’s not as if Republicans haven’t eaten into some of their regular voters, either. About 29 percent of the absentee ballots cast by Republicans this year came from those who voted early or on Election Day in 2008, The Miami Herald and FCIR analysis shows.....

Only 8 percent of the absentee ballots cast so far have been from African-Americans, and just 9 percent from Hispanics. About 65 percent of those Hispanics are from Southeast Florida – a majority of whom are Cuban Republicans – followed by more liberal leaning Hispanics in Central Florida (15 %) and Tampa Bay (12%).

 A whopping 79 percent of the absentee-ballot voters are white non-Hispanic.....

More here

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/26/3069344/more-than-11-million-floridians.html#storylink=cpy

1.1m Floridians have voted; GOP leads by 5 but Obama team says 'we are going to keep FL blue.'

The absentee votes are still pouring in and the Florida GOP still holds an edge of about 5 percentage points in voted ballots.

But the Obama campaign points out that it's cut cut the GOP lead by about two-thirds since 2008 and that, with the advent of early in-person votinng tomorrow, the Republicans can kiss their lead goodbye. More importantly, the Obama campaign says, is to look at the difference between total absentee-ballot requests (those that have been voted plus those still outstanding). By that measure, the Democrats trail by just 1 percentage point, as opposed to about 11 percentage points relative to this time in 2008.

"We are going to keep Florida blue," said Ashley Walker, the Obama campaign's Florida director. She says the campaign has the knowledge, organization and ability to contact those Democrats who haven't cast ballots yet to make sure they do. Team Obama is also working on some of the independent voters as well (but so is Mitt Romney's team's).

Voted ballots

Party	Total	%
REP	504,940	45%
DEM	445,862	39%
IND	183,527	16%
Total	1,134,329

Outstanding requests:

Party	Total	%
REP	575,069	39%
DEM	600,629	40%
IND	312,058	21%
Total	1,487,756

Here are the top 15 AB hotspot counties. Note the gangbusters numbers out of Pinellas (which we explored yesterday when we also noted the voter-registration gap Republicans are closing. Not: R/D=Republican-Democrat in the last column:

Total	Total	REP	DEM	R/D
PIN	123,467	51,142	48,562	2,580
DAD	100,376	44,670	38,058	6,612
HIL	79,020	31,052	34,011	(2,959)
BRO	58,028	16,824	31,964	(15,140)
ORA	56,679	21,995	25,316	(3,321)
BRE	47,556	23,476	17,089	6,387
SAR	46,186	20,705	17,812	2,893
LEE	43,155	22,041	12,986	9,055
POL	38,209	16,377	16,293	84
VOL	36,059	15,984	13,804	2,180
PAS	34,124	14,498	13,318	1,180
DUV	30,495	15,358	11,221	4,137
CLL	30,280	18,324	6,651	11,673
PAL	29,449	9,274	15,186	(5,912)
SEM	25,806	13,369	8,286	5,083

More than 1 million Floridians have already voted; GOP still has 5-point edge

The absentee-ballot numbers are in and Florida has officially passed the 1 million absentee-vote mark. The GOP leads by 5 points. But Democrats can do some bragging, too. Around this time in 2008, they trailed Republicans by about 16 percentage points in voted absentee ballots. That lead has been cut by two-thirds.

Still, it's a lead by Republicans. And they've closed the gap when it comes to total voter registrations (see below)

Add in the outstanding requests, and Democrats boast that they cut the GOP's 11 point lead to about 1 percentage point when it comes to total absentee ballots requested at this point (that is, voted and outstanding ballots.

Voted ballots:

Party	Voted	%
REP	468,417	45%
DEM	414,343	39%
IND	169,338	16%
Total	1,052,098

Outstanding requests

Party	Requested	%
REP	598,372	39%
DEM	618,224	40%
IND	317,325	21%
Total	1,533,921

Before noting the top 15 AB-voting hotspots, it special attention needs to be drawn to Pinellas County, in which about 18 percent of its 620,000 active voters have already cast ballots. Pinellas, home to St. Petersburg, is 48 percent of Miami-Dade's voting-population size but has cast 23 percent more ballots (21,000) than Florida's largest county

Liberal group FL poll: Obama 47-Romney 45

A recent Florida poll of likely voters from Project New America and USAction, which appears to be a liberal union-leaning group, shows President Obama holding an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney 47-45%.

The group, which hired Grove Insight, to conduct the survey had polled last week in Florida as well and found Obama up 48-45%. Assuming the numbers are right (they didn't send cross tabs and this group is largely unknown), that suggests Obama got nothing out of the debate. The survey says it polled 40 percent Democrats, 40 percent Republicans and 20 percent independents (a decent Election Day model).

Here are excerpts of the polling memo:

Obama doesn't forget to mention 'Romnesia' in Tampa stop

From the Tampa Bay Times:

TAMPA — President Barack Obama asked an early-morning crowd in Ybor City to "help me keep moving America forward," warning them Mitt Romney is hoping they'll come down with "a severe case of Romnesia" when it's time to vote.

"It comes down to trust ... who you can trust to make sure that when something unexpected happens, he or she is going to be thinking about your families, your future," Obama told the enthusiastic crowd at Ybor Centennial Park. "Trust matters. And Florida, you know me, you know I say what I mean and I mean what I say. We haven't finished all the work that we set out to do in 2008. But every single day when I set foot in that Oval Office, I'm thinking of you."

Obama visited Tampa as part of a nonstop, two-day tour of swing states.

"We pulled an all-nighter last night," said Obama, who slept on Air Force One as it traveled from Nevada to Florida. He ticked off the states he's visited already and where he's headed next, including a stop in Chicago for some early voting.

"I can't tell you who I'm voting for, it's a secret ballot," Obama joked, "but Michelle says she voted for me."

He implored the crowd to get out there and knock on some doors, make some calls, "vote for me."

"We can write the next chapter together," he said. "Florida, I believe in you and I'm asking you to keep believing in me."

He said, "we'll win Hillsborough County again. We'll win Florida again. We'll win this election again."

More here

Union-backed poll of FL: Obama-Romney tied, but prez could lead by 5 with early voters

Americans United for Change, a union-backed group, released a one-page memo from a Mellman Group poll of Florida voters showing the race dead even in Florida: President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied 47-47.

"Our just completed survey shows that the presidential race in the Sunshine State will be yet another nail-biter, but President Obama has some key advantages over Romney beneath the surface," the memo said.

The most intriguing aspect of the poll: Obama might lead Romney 50-45 percent among voters who already cast ballots; about 5 percent refused to say for whom they voted. As today, that number of absentee-ballot voters is 830,000 in Florida. When the poll was taken (Oct. 18-21) the number of absentee voters was about 750,000.

Caveat: we don't know if the numbers are good because there are no crosstabs and it's not clear how many respondents were Republicans, Democrats and independents there are. Still, Democrats are holding their own with absentee ballots cast and they typically dominate in-person early voting, set to begin Saturday. Obama and Romney will be in the state around that time to turn out the early vote.

Here's more from the memo:

The President leads registered independents 49%-44% (7% undecided), and self-described moderates by a larger 59% to 29% margin. Our results also suggest Obama holds an image advantage among the undecided—with 41% holding a favorable and 37% unfavorable. However undecideds harbor quite negative views of Governor Romney, with just 25% favorable and a 51% majority offering an unfavorable opinion of the GOP challenger.

The President holds sizeable leads among several key groups, including women (51%-45%), younger (under 50) voters (51% to 40%), Hispanics (60%-39%), and African-Americans (90%-7%).

With a strong and disciplined get-out-the vote effort, President Obama has a strong chance to repeat his 2008 win in Florida.