October 23, 2016

October 17, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Independents shift to Clinton in Florida


The second presidential debate and a string of accusations of sexual misconduct have taken a toll on Donald Trump in Florida, according to a new poll that shows crucial independent voters swinging to Hillary Clinton.

Clinton bests Trump by 48-44 percent in the Quinnipiac University released Monday, with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drawing 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

The Democrat’s gains have come from independents, Quinnipiac found. They now favor Clinton by 46-38 percent — a clear shift from Quinnipiac’s Oct. 3 poll, when Trump led among independents by 42-39 percent.

“Hillary Clinton is holding a thin lead in Florida because she is winning the battle for independent voters and holding her lead among women, non-white voters and her Democratic base,” the poll’s assistant, Peter A. Brown, said in a statement. “Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, considered the alternative to Clinton or Trump, is not catching fire in the Sunshine State.”

Clinton is winning a larger share of Democrats — 91 percent — than Trump is winning Republicans — 85 percent. She also holds a 15-point lead over Trump among women (54-39 percent) than Trump’s 9-point lead over Clinton among men (49-40 percent). White voters prefer Trump by 57-34 percent, while non-white voters favor Clinton by 73-19 percent.

The poll of 660 likely voters was conducted Oct. 10-16. It has an error margin of plus-or-minus 3.8 percentage points.

More here.

October 07, 2016

Univision poll: Clinton grows lead among Florida Hispanics

Campaign 2016 Debate

Hillary Clinton has grown her lead among Florida Hispanics in the past month, according to a new poll that for the first time shows the Democrat tied with Donald Trump among Republican-leaning Cuban Americans.

Latinos prefer Clinton by 58-28 percent, according to the new Univision poll, up from 52-29 percent in September. Libertarian Gary Johnson drew 4 percent, down 2 percentage points from last month, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein remained at 2 percent.

Clinton is now approaching the 60-percent threshold President Barack Obama hit with Florida Hispanics against Mitt Romney in 2012. Romney won 39 percent of them; Obama ended up winning the state by a single percentage point.

Part of the reason why: Clinton and Trump are dead even among Cuban Americans, with 41 percent support each. Exit polls in 2012 showed Obama and Romney essentially split that vote.

That’s a “tremendous disadvantage” for Republicans who have historically relied on older Cuban Americans in Florida, said Anthony Williams, special projects director at the Coconut Grove-based Bendixen & Amandi International, which helped conduct the poll.

“As the historic exiles are unfortunately dying off, they’re being replaced by Cuban Americans who were born in the United States — who are much more progressive in their politics,” he said.

Last week, Newsweek reported Trump’s hotel and casino company broke the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba in 1998 — a potentially serious problem for exile hardliners who fiercely back the embargo. Clinton has already hit Trump over the revelation in Florida radio ads in English and Spanish.

Trump visited Miami's Little Havana neighborhood two weeks ago to meet with a small group of Cuban Americans. But they were invited guests who had already been persuaded to vote for him, not undecided voters typically courted by presidential nominees ahead of a general election. Trump has yet to run a single political ad in Spanish.

Bendixen & Amandi and The Tarrance Group surveyed 400 registered voters in English and Spanish from Sept. 26-Oct. 4. The poll’s error margin is plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points.

The survey also found Patrick Murphy and Marco Rubio essentially tied among Hispanics in the U.S. Senate race, with Murphy edging Rubio by 46-45 percent. Last month, Rubio led by 46-39 percent. Murphy would likely still need a bigger margin among Hispanics — who outside of Cuban Americans tend to vote Democratic — to defeat the Republican incumbent.

More here.

Photo credit: David Goldman, Associated Press

October 06, 2016

University of North Florida poll: Clinton leads Trump in Florida


Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in Florida since the first presidential debate was held last week, according to a new poll.

Clinton bests Trump by 47-40 percent in the survey by the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab. In a four-way race with third-party candidates, Clinton is ahead with 41 percent, compared to Trump's 38 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson's 6 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein's 3 percent. Ten percent remain undecided.

"The size of Clinton's lead drops when the additional candidates (Johnson and Stein) are listed in the question. This suggests that the Clinton campaign should perhaps perceive Johnson as a threat, who is taking more votes from her than Trump," said Michael Binder, the Public Opinion Research Lab's faculty director. "While neither candidate has high favorability for the majority of likely voters in Florida, Clinton's net negative 9 percent is better than Trump's net negative 23 percent."

According to Binder's poll memo, 46 percent of respondents who said they plan to vote for Trump said it was a vote against Clinton, compared to 43 percent of those voting for Clinton who said their vote would be against Trump. Binder called that almost even split between voters saying they're voting for a candidate versus voting against another one is "unusual in a presidential election."

Only 10 percent of respondents said immigrants in the country illegally should be made felons and sent back to their home countries. A plurality -- 49 percent -- favored letting them stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for citizenship, a position supported in the poll by Democrats, Republicans and independents.

UNF polled 696 likely voters, identified from the Florida voter file, from Sept. 27-Oct. 4. The poll's error margin is 3.8 percentage points. It's the university's first general election poll, so there is no earlier baseline with which to compare it.

October 05, 2016

Latino Decisions poll: 74% of Florida's Puerto Ricans plan to vote for Clinton

via @adamsmithtimes

Two new polls of Hispanic voters in Florida underscore Donald Trump's steep challenge in carrying must-win Florida -- and point to an ominous trend facing Republicans hoping to win America's biggest battleground state in the future.

The Republican-leaning business group Associated Industries Florida polled 600 Hispanic voters in Florida Oct. 1 through Oct. 3 and found Hillary Clinton crushing Trump 54 percent to 30 percent. Compare that to four years ago, when Mitt Romney lost Florida after winning just 39 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida.

What's more, a seperate poll of the fastest-growing segment of Florida's Hispanic electorate -- Puerto Ricans - found three quarters of the state's Puerto Rican voters planning to vote for Clinton and just 17 percent for Trump. The Republican nominee is virtually toxic among Puerto Ricans with 78 percent having an unfavorable view of Trump and 15 percent favorable, according to the poll of 503 Puerto Rican voters by the Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress Action Fund and Latino Decisions. Clinton was viewed favorably by nearly seven in 10.

"When Donald Trump says Mexicans are rapists, Puerto Ricans understand he is talking about them too. He is talking about us," Puerto Rican U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., said in a conference call about the poll.

Continue reading "Latino Decisions poll: 74% of Florida's Puerto Ricans plan to vote for Clinton" »

AIF poll: Among Florida Hispanics, Trump keeps trailing and Rubio keeps leading


Donald Trump's Florida campaign could learn a thing or two from Marco Rubio about how to win over Hispanic voters.

A new poll shows Trump continues to badly trail Hillary Clinton among the key Latino demographic. She leads by 54-30 percent in the Associated Industries of Florida poll, a 24-point difference.

In contrast, Marco Rubio still holds an advantage over Patrick Murphy by 48-39 percent, according to the AIF poll conducted by TelOpinion Research. Murphy is unknown to many Hispanics, especially compared to the bilingual Rubio, who is Cuban American, an incumbent and ran for president.

The AIF poll of 600 likely Hispanic voters was conducted Oct. 1-3 and has an error margin of 4 percentage points. Respondents were interviewed in English and Spanish.

In a memo to AIF's members, political chief Ryan Tyson noted a significant number of Hispanic Republicans remains undecided.

 "If they come home to him, it's possible that Trump will perform closer to Romney's number with Florida Hispanics in 2012 which was around ~40%," Tyson wrote in a memo to AIF's members obtained by the Miami Herald. "However, the positive outlook ends for him there as Trump is down ~44% with non-Cuban Hispanics who will make up half of the likely Hispanic electorate. Trump will not win Hispanics here in Florida."

Polls show Trump lagging behind where Mitt Romney stood in 2012 Florida exit polls among Hispanics, African Americans and whites -- with more than a month to go in the campaign.

"We still have, I think, a little bit of expansion with both Latino and African-Americans," a senior Clinton official told the Miami Herald. "He's way behind with Hispanics compared to Romney."

A Univision poll conducted last month by Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group also showed Clinton ahead of Trump among Florida Hispanics by 24 points.

Most Hispanic Republicans are Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County -- Rubio's home turf, and the only county Trump lost in the March 15 presidential primary. Murphy hired Hispanic strategist Freddy Balsera two weeks ago to help him with Latino outreach.

President Barack Obama 's job approval among Florida Hispanics was 67 percent -- about 17 percent higher than for the overall electorate, showing he remains a strong Clinton surrogate. A planned Obama rally in Miami Gardens on Wednesday was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew.

October 03, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Debate helped Clinton in Florida


Hillary Clinton's strong debate improved her standing in Florida against Donald Trump, according to a new poll published a week after the two presidential candidates faced off for the first time.

Clinton now leads Trump by 46-41 percent, the Quinnipiac University survey shows -- a significant improvement for Clinton, who tied Trump at 43 percent in the same poll published Sept. 8.

Florida was the only swing state polled by the university post-debate where Clinton's numbers moved. Quinnipiac polled 545 likely Florida voters from Sept. 27-Oct. 2. The poll has an error margin of 4.2 percentage points.

"Although Hillary Clinton clearly won the first debate with Donald Trump, this victory did her only little good in her race for the White House,” said assistant poll director Peter A. Brown said in a statement. "Likely voters in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the four largest and most important Swing States seem little closer to an Election Day decision."

Quinnipiac found two third-party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, polling at 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively, in Florida. In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton leads Trump 49-44 percent.

Asked who won the debate, 56 percent of Florida poll respondents picked Clinton, compared to 21 percent who picked Trump. Of those who handed Clinton the victory, 27 percent were Republican.

"One thing is for sure: Many voters don't have to think a presidential candidate is a good debater to support their candidate in 2016," Brown said. "In Florida, likely voters give Hillary Clinton a 35 percentage point margin for winning the debate, but only a five-point margin in the election matchup."

September 30, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Clinton gets slight post-debate bump in Florida


Hillary Clinton's popularity in crucial Florida increased ever so slightly after her successful debate Monday night against Donald Trump, according to a new poll that still shows a very tight race in the state.

Clinton leads Trump by 46-42 percent, according to Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which represents a 2-point bump for the Democrat since the last Mason-Dixon survey a month ago. The poll's error margin is 3.5 percentage points.

"Despite small shifts that have given Clinton a post-debate bump, the race is still very competitive and the outcome will hinge on where and among whom voter turnout is higher," Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said in a statement.

The two third-party candidates who did not participate in the debate -- Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein -- drew 7 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in the latest poll. Both Clinton and Stein are campaigning in South Florida Friday.

Trump continues to lead among older, whiter voters in North and Southwest Florida. He's also ahead of Clinton among independents, by 41-33 percent. 

Clinton's advantage over Trump is among women, Hispanics and blacks, and in Southeast Florida. She's got a narrow edge over Trump in the swing I-4 corridor, thanks to her support in the Tampa Bay area.

Mason-Dixon polled 820 registered voters from Sept. 27-29.

September 22, 2016

Suffolk poll: Trump up 1 in Florida

via @adamsmithtimes

Suffolk University, the pollster (we will never stop reminding you) who a month before Barack Obama won Florida and Virginia, stopped polling those states because concluded they were in the bag for Mitt Romney, has a new Florida poll showing Donald Trump with 45 percent support, Hillary Clinton with 44 percent, Gary Johnson at 3 percent and Jill Stein at 1 percent.

--ADAM C. SMITH, Tampa Bay Times

FAU online/robopoll: Clinton's lead among Hispanics smaller in Florida than in other battlegrounds


Hillary Clinton maintains a big advantage over Donald Trump among Florida Hispanics, according to a new poll.

Florida Atlantic University found Clinton ahead of Trump by 53-34 percent. That's a robust, 19-point margin that's nevertheless smaller than the once Clinton holds over Trump among Latinos in Colorado (51 points), Nevada (29 points), North Carolina (38 points) and Ohio (22 points). Florida Hispanics tend to lean less Democratic because older Cuban Americans are heavily Republican.

"Hispanics are one of the fastest growing populations in the United States. Republicans cannot continue to underperform with them and maintain a realistic ability to win some of these battleground states," Kevin Wagner, an FAU associate professor of political science, said in a statement. "The electoral map becomes increasingly difficult for Republicans if they cannot narrow these large margins."

FAU polled using a mix of online surveys and robocalls -- a methodology considered less reliable than live calls to voters on cellphones and land lines. The university's Business and Economics Polling Initiative polled 400 registered Hispanic voters from Sept. 15-19, and the poll has an error margin of 4.9 percentage points.