August 03, 2015

McClatchy poll: Republican voters like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio. A lot don't like Donald Trump.

via @LightmanDavid

WASHINGTON -- Republicans like Jeb Bush. And a lot really don’t like Donald Trump.

In fact, more than half find Trump a distraction from the primary process, not a serious candidate.

With the first Republican presidential debate coming up Thursday, a new McClatchy-Marist poll finds that a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents personally like Bush, saying they view him favorably rather than unfavorably. Large numbers also like Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee, far more than dislike them.

But nearly half dislike Trump, suggesting that the billionaire businessman who leads national Republican polls will have a hard time reaching those personally hostile voters and growing his constituency, while a host of others have room to surge.

The debate in Cleveland, the first of a monthly series, will feature the 10 Republicans, plus ties, atop an average of national polls. As many as seven other candidates will not qualify and instead can participate in a late afternoon forum.

More here.

July 31, 2015

McClatchy poll: As 3rd-party candidate, Donald Trump could send Hillary Clinton to the White House

via @LightmanDavid @corinneskennedy

WASHINGTON -- Donald Trump could do to the 2016 general election exactly what Ross Perot did a generation ago – with a Clinton pulling away from a Bush and a wealthy business mogul drawing a surprisingly large share of the vote.

A new McClatchy-Marist poll finds Hillary Clinton leading every potential Republican rival one on one. And while her lead has narrowed over several, it expands greatly in a race against Jeb Bush if Trump decides to jump in as a third-party candidate, as he has suggested is possible.

The poll projects a virtual rerun of 1992. That year, husband Bill Clinton won the White House with 43 percent of the popular vote. President George H.W. Bush, Jeb Bush’s father, came in second with 37.5 percent. Perot, running as an independent, got 19 percent.

This time, Hillary Clinton gets 44 percent, Bush gets 29 percent and Trump gets 20 percent, according to the poll.

The results come as the Republicans prepare for their first debate, Thursday in Cleveland, with Trump leading national polls of GOP voters. Should he fall short of winning the Republican nomination, which party insiders expect, Trump has opened the door to a third-party bid.

Trump would badly wound Bush, according to the nationwide McClatchy-Marist survey conducted July 22-28.

He would siphon votes from Republicans and independents, but not from Democrats. He’d get 28 percent of the Republican vote, while Bush would sink to 63 percent support from his own party. Meanwhile, Clinton would hold 86 percent of the Democrats.

More here.

July 30, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Donald Trump surges in GOP, but would lose to Democrats


@PatriciaMazzei

The summer of The Donald is reflected in a new public-opinion survey that shows celebrity real-estate mogul Donald Trump clearly ahead of the rest of the 2016 Republican presidential hopefuls.

The Quinnipiac University poll published Thursday shows Trump with 20 percent support, ahead of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker with 13 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with 10 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is in a four-way tie for fourth place with 6 percent, and 12 percent are undecided.

Trump, however, is underwater in potential matchups against Democratic candidates. He would lose to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 48-36 percent -- and would also be bested by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and even Vice President Joe Biden, who is not in the race. Clinton leads the Democratic field with 55 percent support, followed by Sanders (17 percent) and Biden (14 percent).

The strongest Republican against Clinton is Bush, who's ahead of her 41-42 percent, which amounts to a statistical tie. The poll's error margin is 2.4 percentage points. Clinton leads Walker 44-43 percent, another tie.

Though poll respondents said the most important quality in a candidate is that they be honest and trustworthy, frontrunners Trump and Clinton fare the worst by that measure, at least among general-election voters.

"They love him and they hate him. Donald Trump triumphs on the stump so far, but do voters REALLY want him? Maybe not so much," assistant poll director Tim Malloy said in a statement.

July 27, 2015

Mason-Dixon poll shows no clear favoring in U.S. Senate race

@JeremySWallace

There is no clear front runner in either the Republican or Democratic primaries for U.S. Senate in 2016, a new Mason-Dixon Florida Poll shows.

According to the poll of 500 registered Republican voters, U.S. Rep. David Jolly was the choice of 16 percent. Florida’s Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera was second with 10 percent of the vote. U.S. Reps. Ron DeSantis and Jeff Miller were the choice of 9 percent and 8 percent, respectively. Todd Wilcox was sitting at 2 percent.

Maybe more telling is how many voters are undecided about the field. The poll showed 55 percent said they were undecided about who they would pick.

If former Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, who has said he is considering the contest, gets in the race, he could scramble the field. McCollum would immediately jump to the top of the list. When asked if McCollum were running, 22 percent said they would support him. Jolly would drop to 11 percent. DeSantis would be third with 8 percent, followed  by Lopez-Cantera and Jeff Miller at 7 percent and 6 percent. Still 45 percent of Republican voters said they were undecided even with McCollum in the contest.

The Democratic field is even closer. U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson was the choice of 33 percent of registered Democratic voters. U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy was the choice of 32 percent. But like the Republicans, a lot of voters remain very undecided. The poll showed 35 percent were undecided.

The race doesn’t change much if U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham gets in the race. If she gets into the contest, Murphy would lead the field with 26 percent. Grayson would get 24 percent and Graham 11 percent. But the undecideds grow to 39 percent.

The telephone poll was conducted from July 20 to July 25 and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. 

July 24, 2015

Mason-Dixon poll: Florida support for Marco Rubio drops

@PatriciaMazzei

Jeb Bush holds a 28-16 percent lead in Florida over fellow home state Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio, according to a new poll.

Rubio's popularity has fallen sharply since he kicked off his campaign, the survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research shows. In April, Rubio was effectively tied with Bush 31-30 percent.

"I've been up higher than I am today," Rubio said in a Friday interview on CBS This Morning, without referring specifically to the new Mason-Dixon poll. "I've been lower than I am now."

He told Fox News the night before that "it's hard to be president of the United States if you can't win the primary of your own state."

Accounting for the difference is the rise in the poll of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who only recently made his candidacy official, and the addition to the race of real-estate mogul Donald Trump. They polled at 13 and 11 percent, respectively. No others in the GOP race received double-digit support.

"This is the first Florida poll taken entirely since Trump's remarks regarding John McCain's Vietnam War service," pollster Brad Coker wrote in an analysis of the results, which were first reported by Politico. "His 11% showing in Florida is far below his support in recent national polls. This could be the result of the home state advantage of both Bush and Rubio.

"However, the fact that Walker has slipped ahead of him may be a stronger sign that his candidacy is fading. Furthermore, there is a clear ceiling that Trump has among Florida Republicans."

Among Florida Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to lead the field with 58 percent, followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 17 percent and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley with 2 percent. Other candidates didn't register in the poll.

Twenty-three percent of Democrats said they were undecided, compared to 13 percent of Republicans. The poll's error margin is 4.5 percentage points.

July 22, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush best Hillary Clinton in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia

@PatriciaMazzei

Miami's two Republican presidential contenders, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, along with Wisconsin's Scott Walker, lead Democrat Hillary Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups in three key swing states, according to a new public-opinion survey.

The Quinnipiac University poll found Clinton trails or is statistically tied in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia with the three GOP candidates:

                               Colorado           Iowa            Virginia

Clinton                        38                    36                    41

Rubio                          46                    44                    43

 

Clinton                        36                    36                    39

Bush                            41                    42                    42

 

Clinton                        38                    37                    40

Walker                         47                    45                    43

In some cases in Iowa and Colorado, Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont does the same or better than Clinton against Bush, Rubio and Walker, according to the poll, which has an error margin of 2.8 percentage points. The results indicate the 2016 general election could be a close one, assuming Democrats nominate Clinton and Republicans nominate Walker, Bush or Rubio.

Clinton has negative favorability ratings in all three states -- but they're better than Republican Donald Trump, the most negatively viewed of all presidential candidates, according to the poll.

July 14, 2015

Suffolk poll: Donald Trump leads GOP presidential field, ahead of Jeb Bush

@PatriciaMazzei

Donald Trump is ahead in the 2016 Republican presidential race, according to a new national poll.

The survey by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump drawing 17 percent of GOP support, followed by Jeb Bush with 14 percent support. They were the only two Republicans with double-digit backing. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in fourth place with 5 percent.

A full 30 percent of the Republican electorate remains undecided, however. It's very early for polls -- especially national ones, as opposed to ones for early primary states -- to predict much. They reveal a snapshot in time given the still-small number of voters paying attention to the race.

In a hypothetical match-up against Democrat Hillary Clinton, Trump is upside down 51-34 percent. Bush fared best against the former Secretary of State, 46-42 percent. The poll's error margin is 3 percentage points.

"Trump is making daily headlines in advance of the primary season," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University political Research Center. "This has vaulted him to the top of the pack on the backs of conservative voters. But when you expand the electoral pool to include Democrats and independents that potency dissipates."

July 01, 2015

CNN/ORC poll: Jeb Bush rises and Marco Rubio falls but Hillary Clinton ahead of them both

A new CNN/ORC poll shows former Gov. Jeb Bush on the rise and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio down since May while Democrat Hillary Clinton continues to lead all GOP candidates in general election match-ups.

Bush stands at 19 percent, up from 13 percent in May. Trump follows at 12 percent, up from 3 percent before his announcement.

Rounding out the top five were former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (8 percent), neurosurgeon Ben Carson (7 percent) and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (7 percent).

Rubio was absent from the top five but just barely: he stood at 6 percent, down from 14 percent in May. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker who has not yet announced was also at 6 percent.

Clinton holds wide leads over other Democratic challengers. In a general election match-up, she holds leads over all the GOPers including Bush (54-41), Trump (59-34) and Rubio (56-39).

The poll was conducted by telephone June 26-28, among a random national sample of 1,017 adults. The margin of sampling error for results among the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

June 22, 2015

WSJ/NBC poll: It's starting to look like a Jeb Bush-Marco Rubio GOP race

@PatriciaMazzei

Three-quarters of Republican primary voters across the country say they could see themselves supporting Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio for president, putting them ahead of the rest of the candidate field, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

In March, 49 percent of respondents said they could see themselves voting for Bush, the former Florida governor, and 56 percent for Rubio, a U.S. senator, the poll found. Three months later, those percentages climbed to 75 for Bush and 74 for Rubio. In third place is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with 65 percent (up from 52 percent in March).

The particularly strong improvement for Bush comes a week after he formally announced his 2016 candidacy. The first primaries are still a long way away, though, and a national poll doesn't capture voters' sentiment in each of the early-voting states.

When asked to pick one candidate they could vote for in the election, 22 percent of respondents chose Bush, 17 percent chose Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, and 16 percent chose Rubio. The poll's error margin is 6.38 percentage points.

Quinnipiac poll: Lopez-Cantera trails Murphy, Obama and Scott still in 'job approval hole'

Lieutenant Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera has not made it official yet, but a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll says he is already trailing U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy in the 2016 U.S. Senate race.

If a matchup were held today, Lopez-Cantera would be behind by 40 to 28 percent. He is expected to announce on July 15. Also trailing Murphy is U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis: 39 to 31 percent. 

The news is equally grim for Gov. Rick Scott and President Barack Obama. Both remain mired in negative approval ratings in Florida, according to the poll taken June 4-15 of 1,147 Florida voters that has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Obama's job approval rating in Florida is 43 to 51 percent while Scott's is worse with 39 percent of voters having a favorable view of him and 49 percent who don't.

Here's the press release:

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