A new SurveyUSA poll shows Democrat Charlie Crist leading Gov. Rick Scott by about 5 percentage points --and despite $5.2 million in ad buys from the Republican.
The likely voter poll, conducted for Tampa's WFLA station, jibes with about a dozen other recent public surveys except two:
1) An early April poll by Voter Survey Service, which often works for Republicans and was hired by conservative Sunshine State News. It showed Scott with an inside-the-error margin lead of 45-44 percent over Crist, the only survey showing Scott out front.
2) A mid-March poll by University of North Florida (which until the Voter Survey Service was the outlier) that showed Crist with the narrowest of inside-the-error-margin leads, 34-33 percent. No recent survey has found both candidates pulling less than 40 percent of the vote.
In between those two surveys, St. Leo University released a poll in late March that Crist led Scott 43-39 percent.
And the day after the Voter Survey poll, liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling released its own numbers showing Crist ahead of Scott 49-42 percent.
Considering all those polls, SurveyUSA's numbers of Crist leading Scott 46-41 percent is no shocker.
Bottom line: Crist probably leads by 3-5 percentage points.