Gov. Scott gains ground in new statewide poll, but trails Crist by 10

Gov. Rick Scott's poll numbers are showing signs of progress, but he would still lose to former Gov. Charlie Crist by 10 points if the 2014 election were held today, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

Still one of America's least popular governors, Scott trails Crist 47 percent  to 37 percent in a face-off between the Republican governor and his possible now-Democratic rival.

But the poll contains a glimmer of hope for Scott: Voters are closely divided in their assessment of his job performance, with 43 percent approving and 44 percent disapproving. That's a significant improvement over the previous Quinnipiac poll in March, when 36 percent of voters approved of Scott's performance and 49 percent disapproved.

The percentage of voters who have a favorable view of Scott is up to 40 percent, the highest since he took office nearly two-and-a-half years ago. But he has persistent problems with women, who favor Crist by 51 to 32 percent, and Hispanics favor Crist over Scott, 40-33 percent.

Crist's 13 percent share of Republican crossover votes is slightly higher than Scott's 8 percent share of Democrats.

Voters still say by a margin of 50 percent to 35 percent that Scott does not deserve to be re-elected, but that too is an improvement over the previous survey in March, when 55 percent said he didn't deserve a second term and 32 percent said he did.

"It is an indication of how far down Gov. Rick Scott's numbers have been that he can take some solace from a poll that finds him losing by 10 points to his predecessor in the governor's office," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. "In addition to cutting the deficit between himself and Crist, Scott sees his tepid job approval and favorability numbers and still-negative re-election numbers as notably improved. That doesn't mean that happy days are here again for the governor, but if he is going to make a comeback, these are the kinds of steps that would be required."

Voters have a favorable view of Crist by a margin of 48 to 31 percent. For Scott, that number is 40 percent favorable, 42  percent unfavorable.

By a margin of 47 to 44 percent, voters said Crist's switch to the Democratic Party is a positive thing, including 53 percent of independent voters. Speaking of independents, they favor Crist over Scott for governor by 45 percent to 33 percent.

The poll also shows that U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson would defeat Scott, 48-38 percent, but that Scott would defeat former Senate Democratic leader Nan Rich, 42-36 percent. Rich is one of three announced Democratic candidate for governor in 2014, and Nelson has repeatedly said he has no intention of running for governor. Quinnipiac did not ask voters about Alex Sink, the Democratic nominee in 2010 who is considering another bid.

Nelson does slightly better with independent voters against Scott (48-33 percent) than Crist.

Scott travels the state extensively claiming credit for improvements in Florida's economy, and the poll suggests that message is slowly getting through to Florida voters. One-third of them said the economy in Florida is getting better, and 14 percent said Scott deserves "a lot" of credit for that and 44 percent say he deserves "some" credit.

The bottom line: Scott's numbers were close to rock bottom and they had nowhere to go but up. The headline on Quinnipiac's news release summed it up nicely: "Gov's grades are low, but best ever."

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,176 Florida voters from June 11-16. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

-- Steve Bousquet

Bipartisan poll's good news for Marco Rubio: 7 in 10 FL voters (71% of GOP!?) back immigration reform

@MarcACaputo

More than 7 in 10 Florida voters favor the concept of the bipartisan immigration-reform plans proposed in Congress, according to a new survey that indicates the issue might not be as politically polarizing as many say.

The results from Republican-leaning Harper Polling and Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling could be a big boost to Florida’s Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, a potential presidential candidate in 2016. Rubio helped craft his chamber’s compromise plan only to face a fierce blowback from the conservative media elite and immigration hardliners.

But Florida Republicans overwhelmingly back the proposal: 71-22 percent, with 43 percent saying they “strongly support,” the poll of 500 voters says.

By an even bigger spread of 82-14 percent, Florida Republicans said their senator should support the plan.

PPP: FL backs procitizenship-path candidates 49-29 percent. GOP voters? Not so much.

@MarcACaputo

Florida’s Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing segment of the state’s electorate, are the most likely to support candidates who back a path to citizenship for those illegally in the country, a new poll from a Democratic-leaning firm has found.

Seven in 10 Hispanic voters said they’d be more likely to vote for a pro-pathway candidate, compared to 49 percent of African-Americans and 47 percent of non-Hispanic whites, the survey from Public Policy Polling shows.

Overall, 49 percent of Florida voters overall said they’d back a pro-pathway candidate and only 29 percent said they’d be less likely to do so.

But the poll also indicates that Florida congressional support for an immigration-reform bill is no sure thing due to Republican concerns with a pathway to citizenship. Republican members of Florida’s congressional delegation outnumber Democratic members by a 17-10 split.

PPP survey: Rand Paul rising, Rubio still leads in '16 GOP race, Hillary beats both

@MarcACaputo

Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats (but has a pretty solid track record) released its latest 2016 presidential poll that mirror ones from McClatchy-Marist and Quinnipiac University:

Rand Paul's well publicized filibuster last month has vaulted him up the list of Republican contenders in PPP's newest look ahead to the 2016 Presidential contest.

Marco Rubio continues to lead nationally, as he has on all four of our 2016 polls so far. He's at 21% this month, basically the same as 22% the month before the State of the Union address. Rubio's favorability of 62/10 is slightly better than 59/12 in early February. The whole water drinking episode hasn't had any effect on his standing- nor has his stance on immigration reform.

McClatchy-Marist Poll: Hillary is the '16 Dem to beat, handily defeats Rubio and Jeb

WASHINGTON — The 2016 presidential election is far off, but an early sign indicates that Republicans could face trouble if Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

The survey matched Clinton, the former secretary of state, and Vice President Biden against four potential Republican challengers. The Democrats easily beat Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Against New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, thought to be a long shot for the party’s presidential nomination, Clinton barely won and Biden barely lost.

The results provide fresh evidence that Republicans are still reeling from the 2012 election. The party thought it had a good chance to win the White House, but nominee Mitt Romney lost decisively to President Barack Obama. Republicans also lost seats in both houses of Congress.

“We’re seeing the aftermath of 2012 still casting a cloud on 2016,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducted the nationwide March 25-27 survey.

Story here

 

Q Poll: No clear GOP prez frontrunner, but Marco Rubio narrowly ahead

From Quinnipiac University's latest poll:

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five- way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

Q Poll: Hillary Clinton wallops Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio in their home state of FL

@MarcACaputo

Sorry Jeb, Marco.

Florida is Hillary country, according to Quinnipiac’s latest* 2016 presidential matchup.

The former secretary of state and New York senator would beat each Florida resident by 11 points, the poll shows. She bests Bush 51-40 and Rubio by a 52-41 percent spread.

Clinton’s likely biggest advantage: Women. They back Clinton over Bush and Rubio by 20 and 18 percentage points, respectively.

PPP: Charlie Crist trouncing Rick Scott by 12 points

@MarcACaputo

From Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats (Note: the poll differs from one completed last month by Democratic pollster Dave Beattie, who found Crist and Scott tied; Quinnipiac releases a survey tomorrow):

Rick Scott's approval numbers have seen no improvement over the last two months, even after his decision to allow Medicaid expansion in Florida. 33% of voters continue to approve of the job he's doing to 57% who disapprove. Although his overall numbers are the same he has seen a slight improvement with Democrats (from 21/71 to 23/69) and a slight downgrade with Republicans (from 49/38 to 46/42).

Rick Scott message guru guiding Miami Dolphins stadium strategy

@MarcACaputo

Give it to the Miami Dolphins: They know how to play offense.

At least in the state Capitol.

In the club's effort to get a tax-subsidized stadium deal, it hired top Republican message-master Curt Anderson, who was part of the consultant dream team that helped Rick Scott, an unknown former hospital executive with a blemished past, become governor of Florida.

Now Anderson might be embarking on a just-as-tough effort: Getting a jaundiced Miami-Dade electorate to approve a tax deal for a stadium. A new poll from FIU pollster Dario Moreno shows it's a longshot. Voters here are still stewing over the Miami Marlins stadium deal.

A poll from Anderson's firm, OnMessage Media (an arm of OnMessage Sports, which has worked on other tax-sports issues), indicates voters can be persuaded in Miami-Dade to back the stadium deal. (Moreno poll is here; Anderson poll nugget is here).

Of course, all of this is on paper. If, and it's a big if, this passes the Legislature, Scott will have to decide whether to sign the bill. Although, Scott just so happened to voice a measure of support for the stadium deal today.

If all that happens, then the campaign begins to persuade people in earnest. As Prussian Gen. Helmuth von Moltke said: No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy. Boxer Mike Tyson's version: Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

Here's Anderson's slogan: "We measure public opinion. Then we change it."

But not always. For every Rick Scott gubernatorial success story, there's a Texas Gov. Rick Perry campaign for president, which Anderson, Fabrizio and Warfield all worked on (Dolphins owner Steven Ross, incidentally, had backed Mitt Romney).

Miami Dolphins chief trashes "ginned up" poll showing stadium plan is highly unpopular, toxic

@MarcACaputo

A written statement from Miami Dolphins President and CEO Mike Dee on today's poll showing about 73 percent of likely Miami-Dade voters don't like the club's tax-subsidy plan:

“A ginned-up poll paid for by a mystery client that goes out of its way to lead people to a negative position is hardly enough to sway us from our efforts to put this issue in front of voters this spring. We believe in the people of Miami Dade County, and trust that the voters can and will see the differences in our project from prior ones.

“The fact that the Dolphins will pay a majority of the costs, and that the rest will be paid by tourists and patrons of the stadium - and never by residents of Miami Dade - along with creating thousands of jobs and millions in economic activity for the people of our community, are powerful facts than this cynical, politically-motivated poll conveniently ignores.

“We know that we have to make our case to the elected leaders and the people of Miami Dade. It’s a challenge we readily accept and are confident it will end with the voters approving our plans to create more jobs and more opportunity for the people of Miami Dade County."

One note: There's no evidence that this was a so-called "push poll" that, in Dee's words, "goes out of its way to lead people to a negative position." Indeed, it described one of the sales-tax breaks the Dolphins seek as a "rebate" when the state program can act like a subsidy.

Here's the question pollster Dario Moreno said he asked:

The Dolphins are asking for a one-cent increase in the "bed tax" in Miami-Dade County, as well as a $3-million-a-year rebate in sales tax revenue generated by goods and services at Sun Life Stadium. Stephen Ross, the owner of the Dolphins, has pledged to pay for at least half of the $400 million renovations himself, meaning the team is asking for approximately $199 million in public funding. Do you support or oppose this plan?

And there's an irony as well: The Dolphins shared a portion of their own poll, but it was more of a push poll that Moreno's. That is, it message-tested, which all campaigns have to do, by asking a series of questions of voters to figure out how popular an item is or how to make it popular. The survey, conducted by a group called OnMessage Sports, that they said showed 59 percent approved of the plan and only 33 percent disapproved after they were "informed." The poll's crosstabs were not shared with The Miami Herald, unlike Moreno's survey.