October 05, 2016

Latino Decisions poll: 74% of Florida's Puerto Ricans plan to vote for Clinton

via @adamsmithtimes

Two new polls of Hispanic voters in Florida underscore Donald Trump's steep challenge in carrying must-win Florida -- and point to an ominous trend facing Republicans hoping to win America's biggest battleground state in the future.

The Republican-leaning business group Associated Industries Florida polled 600 Hispanic voters in Florida Oct. 1 through Oct. 3 and found Hillary Clinton crushing Trump 54 percent to 30 percent. Compare that to four years ago, when Mitt Romney lost Florida after winning just 39 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida.

What's more, a seperate poll of the fastest-growing segment of Florida's Hispanic electorate -- Puerto Ricans - found three quarters of the state's Puerto Rican voters planning to vote for Clinton and just 17 percent for Trump. The Republican nominee is virtually toxic among Puerto Ricans with 78 percent having an unfavorable view of Trump and 15 percent favorable, according to the poll of 503 Puerto Rican voters by the Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress Action Fund and Latino Decisions. Clinton was viewed favorably by nearly seven in 10.

"When Donald Trump says Mexicans are rapists, Puerto Ricans understand he is talking about them too. He is talking about us," Puerto Rican U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., said in a conference call about the poll.

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AIF poll: Among Florida Hispanics, Trump keeps trailing and Rubio keeps leading


Donald Trump's Florida campaign could learn a thing or two from Marco Rubio about how to win over Hispanic voters.

A new poll shows Trump continues to badly trail Hillary Clinton among the key Latino demographic. She leads by 54-30 percent in the Associated Industries of Florida poll, a 24-point difference.

In contrast, Marco Rubio still holds an advantage over Patrick Murphy by 48-39 percent, according to the AIF poll conducted by TelOpinion Research. Murphy is unknown to many Hispanics, especially compared to the bilingual Rubio, who is Cuban American, an incumbent and ran for president.

The AIF poll of 600 likely Hispanic voters was conducted Oct. 1-3 and has an error margin of 4 percentage points. Respondents were interviewed in English and Spanish.

In a memo to AIF's members, political chief Ryan Tyson noted a significant number of Hispanic Republicans remains undecided.

 "If they come home to him, it's possible that Trump will perform closer to Romney's number with Florida Hispanics in 2012 which was around ~40%," Tyson wrote in a memo to AIF's members obtained by the Miami Herald. "However, the positive outlook ends for him there as Trump is down ~44% with non-Cuban Hispanics who will make up half of the likely Hispanic electorate. Trump will not win Hispanics here in Florida."

Polls show Trump lagging behind where Mitt Romney stood in 2012 Florida exit polls among Hispanics, African Americans and whites -- with more than a month to go in the campaign.

"We still have, I think, a little bit of expansion with both Latino and African-Americans," a senior Clinton official told the Miami Herald. "He's way behind with Hispanics compared to Romney."

A Univision poll conducted last month by Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group also showed Clinton ahead of Trump among Florida Hispanics by 24 points.

Most Hispanic Republicans are Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County -- Rubio's home turf, and the only county Trump lost in the March 15 presidential primary. Murphy hired Hispanic strategist Freddy Balsera two weeks ago to help him with Latino outreach.

President Barack Obama 's job approval among Florida Hispanics was 67 percent -- about 17 percent higher than for the overall electorate, showing he remains a strong Clinton surrogate. A planned Obama rally in Miami Gardens on Wednesday was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew.

October 03, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Debate helped Clinton in Florida


Hillary Clinton's strong debate improved her standing in Florida against Donald Trump, according to a new poll published a week after the two presidential candidates faced off for the first time.

Clinton now leads Trump by 46-41 percent, the Quinnipiac University survey shows -- a significant improvement for Clinton, who tied Trump at 43 percent in the same poll published Sept. 8.

Florida was the only swing state polled by the university post-debate where Clinton's numbers moved. Quinnipiac polled 545 likely Florida voters from Sept. 27-Oct. 2. The poll has an error margin of 4.2 percentage points.

"Although Hillary Clinton clearly won the first debate with Donald Trump, this victory did her only little good in her race for the White House,” said assistant poll director Peter A. Brown said in a statement. "Likely voters in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the four largest and most important Swing States seem little closer to an Election Day decision."

Quinnipiac found two third-party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, polling at 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively, in Florida. In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton leads Trump 49-44 percent.

Asked who won the debate, 56 percent of Florida poll respondents picked Clinton, compared to 21 percent who picked Trump. Of those who handed Clinton the victory, 27 percent were Republican.

"One thing is for sure: Many voters don't have to think a presidential candidate is a good debater to support their candidate in 2016," Brown said. "In Florida, likely voters give Hillary Clinton a 35 percentage point margin for winning the debate, but only a five-point margin in the election matchup."

September 30, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Clinton gets slight post-debate bump in Florida


Hillary Clinton's popularity in crucial Florida increased ever so slightly after her successful debate Monday night against Donald Trump, according to a new poll that still shows a very tight race in the state.

Clinton leads Trump by 46-42 percent, according to Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which represents a 2-point bump for the Democrat since the last Mason-Dixon survey a month ago. The poll's error margin is 3.5 percentage points.

"Despite small shifts that have given Clinton a post-debate bump, the race is still very competitive and the outcome will hinge on where and among whom voter turnout is higher," Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said in a statement.

The two third-party candidates who did not participate in the debate -- Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein -- drew 7 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in the latest poll. Both Clinton and Stein are campaigning in South Florida Friday.

Trump continues to lead among older, whiter voters in North and Southwest Florida. He's also ahead of Clinton among independents, by 41-33 percent. 

Clinton's advantage over Trump is among women, Hispanics and blacks, and in Southeast Florida. She's got a narrow edge over Trump in the swing I-4 corridor, thanks to her support in the Tampa Bay area.

Mason-Dixon polled 820 registered voters from Sept. 27-29.

September 22, 2016

Suffolk poll: Trump up 1 in Florida

via @adamsmithtimes

Suffolk University, the pollster (we will never stop reminding you) who a month before Barack Obama won Florida and Virginia, stopped polling those states because concluded they were in the bag for Mitt Romney, has a new Florida poll showing Donald Trump with 45 percent support, Hillary Clinton with 44 percent, Gary Johnson at 3 percent and Jill Stein at 1 percent.

--ADAM C. SMITH, Tampa Bay Times

FAU online/robopoll: Clinton's lead among Hispanics smaller in Florida than in other battlegrounds


Hillary Clinton maintains a big advantage over Donald Trump among Florida Hispanics, according to a new poll.

Florida Atlantic University found Clinton ahead of Trump by 53-34 percent. That's a robust, 19-point margin that's nevertheless smaller than the once Clinton holds over Trump among Latinos in Colorado (51 points), Nevada (29 points), North Carolina (38 points) and Ohio (22 points). Florida Hispanics tend to lean less Democratic because older Cuban Americans are heavily Republican.

"Hispanics are one of the fastest growing populations in the United States. Republicans cannot continue to underperform with them and maintain a realistic ability to win some of these battleground states," Kevin Wagner, an FAU associate professor of political science, said in a statement. "The electoral map becomes increasingly difficult for Republicans if they cannot narrow these large margins."

FAU polled using a mix of online surveys and robocalls -- a methodology considered less reliable than live calls to voters on cellphones and land lines. The university's Business and Economics Polling Initiative polled 400 registered Hispanic voters from Sept. 15-19, and the poll has an error margin of 4.9 percentage points.

September 20, 2016

How 4 pollsters interpreted the same Florida polling data

From The New York Times:

On Monday, in partnership with Siena College, the Upshot published a poll of 867 likely Florida voters. Our poll showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald J. Trump by one percentage point.

We decided to share our raw data with four well-respected pollsters and asked them to estimate the result of the poll themselves.


Here’s what they found:

Pollster Clinton Trump Margin
Charles Franklin
Marquette Law
42% 39% Clinton +3%
Patrick Ruffini
Echelon Insights
39% 38% Clinton +1%
Omero, Green, Rosenblatt
Penn Schoen Berland Research
42% 38% Clinton +4%
Corbett-Davies, Gelman, Rothschild
Stanford University/Columbia University/Microsoft Research
40% 41% Trump +1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College
41% 40% Clinton +1%

More here.

Monmouth poll: Clinton's Florida lead over Trump has shrunk


Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in Florida but by a smaller margin than she did last month, according to a new poll that, taken with other recent surveys, indicates the race has tightened significantly in the nation's largest swing state.

The Monmouth University polls shows Clinton ahead of Trump by 46-41 percent -- within the survey's 4.9 percentage-point error margin. Last month, Clinton held a 48-39 percent lead. (Support for Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein remained unchanged, at 6 percent and 1 percent, respectively.)

"Although Clinton's lead is smaller than in our last poll, she is maintaining her advantage in Florida given the ominous state of her poll standing last week," Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. He argued that Florida is "less of a crucial battleground" as Clinton and Trump wage political war in the Rust Belt states. "However, a win here would make the path to 270 electoral votes that much easier for the victor and difficult for the loser," he said.

Other recent polls have shown a tied Florida race. What matters most is the trend: Taken together, the latest surveys all point to a closer race, with Trump making up ground.

While other polls have found Marco Rubio holding on to a lead over Patrick Murphy in Florida's U.S. Senate race, Monmouth's results show a smaller Rubio advantage of 47-45 percent. Last month, Rubio was ahead by 48-43 percent.

Monmouth interviewed 400 likely Florida voters from Sept. 16-19.

September 19, 2016

NYT/Siena poll: Clinton 41%, Trump 40% in Florida


The Florida presidential race remains too close to call 50 days before the election, according to a new Siena College poll for the New York Times Upshot.

Hillary Clinton is statistically tied with Donald Trump 41-40 percent in a head-to-head match-up, according to the poll. They're actually tied 43-43 percent in a four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who drew 9 percent and 2 percent support, respectively.

The poll found Trump's extraordinary support among white voters to be keeping him afloat in the nation's largest swing state. They prefer Trump to Clinton by 51-30 percent.

In the U.S. Senate race, the poll found Marco Rubio ahead of Patrick Murphy by 48-42 percent.

Because Siena polled likely voters based on data from Florida's voter file, the poll may be undercounting young voters who have yet to register and tend to lean Democratic. The poll's sample size of Hispanics might also be too small to accurately measure the state's Latino electorate; to do so, Florida pollsters often prefer to poll Hispanics only, or to oversample the demographic in their surveys.

September 14, 2016

CNN/ORC poll: Trump edges Clinton in super-tight Florida


Another poll, another virtual tie in Florida's presidential race -- except this time, it's Donald Trump who's edging Hillary Clinton.

A new CNN/ORC poll shows Trump drawing 47 percent of Florida's likely vote, compared to Clinton's 44 percent. That's within the polls 3.5 percentage-point error margin. Libertarian Gary Johnson drew 6 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew 1 percent.

Recent Florida polls have shown the race tied or in a similar statistical tie, but with Clinton holding a slight advantage over Trump. Surveys in other battleground states also suggest Trump is on the upswing.

In the Florida U.S. Senate race, the CNN poll shows Republican Marco Rubio comfortably ahead of Democrat Patrick Murphy, 54-43 percent. Other polls have suggested the race is closer.