July 27, 2015

Mason-Dixon poll shows no clear favoring in U.S. Senate race

@JeremySWallace

There is no clear front runner in either the Republican or Democratic primaries for U.S. Senate in 2016, a new Mason-Dixon Florida Poll shows.

According to the poll of 500 registered Republican voters, U.S. Rep. David Jolly was the choice of 16 percent. Florida’s Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera was second with 10 percent of the vote. U.S. Reps. Ron DeSantis and Jeff Miller were the choice of 9 percent and 8 percent, respectively. Todd Wilcox was sitting at 2 percent.

Maybe more telling is how many voters are undecided about the field. The poll showed 55 percent said they were undecided about who they would pick.

If former Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, who has said he is considering the contest, gets in the race, he could scramble the field. McCollum would immediately jump to the top of the list. When asked if McCollum were running, 22 percent said they would support him. Jolly would drop to 11 percent. DeSantis would be third with 8 percent, followed  by Lopez-Cantera and Jeff Miller at 7 percent and 6 percent. Still 45 percent of Republican voters said they were undecided even with McCollum in the contest.

The Democratic field is even closer. U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson was the choice of 33 percent of registered Democratic voters. U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy was the choice of 32 percent. But like the Republicans, a lot of voters remain very undecided. The poll showed 35 percent were undecided.

The race doesn’t change much if U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham gets in the race. If she gets into the contest, Murphy would lead the field with 26 percent. Grayson would get 24 percent and Graham 11 percent. But the undecideds grow to 39 percent.

The telephone poll was conducted from July 20 to July 25 and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. 

July 24, 2015

Mason-Dixon poll: Florida support for Marco Rubio drops

@PatriciaMazzei

Jeb Bush holds a 28-16 percent lead in Florida over fellow home state Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio, according to a new poll.

Rubio's popularity has fallen sharply since he kicked off his campaign, the survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research shows. In April, Rubio was effectively tied with Bush 31-30 percent.

"I've been up higher than I am today," Rubio said in a Friday interview on CBS This Morning, without referring specifically to the new Mason-Dixon poll. "I've been lower than I am now."

He told Fox News the night before that "it's hard to be president of the United States if you can't win the primary of your own state."

Accounting for the difference is the rise in the poll of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who only recently made his candidacy official, and the addition to the race of real-estate mogul Donald Trump. They polled at 13 and 11 percent, respectively. No others in the GOP race received double-digit support.

"This is the first Florida poll taken entirely since Trump's remarks regarding John McCain's Vietnam War service," pollster Brad Coker wrote in an analysis of the results, which were first reported by Politico. "His 11% showing in Florida is far below his support in recent national polls. This could be the result of the home state advantage of both Bush and Rubio.

"However, the fact that Walker has slipped ahead of him may be a stronger sign that his candidacy is fading. Furthermore, there is a clear ceiling that Trump has among Florida Republicans."

Among Florida Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to lead the field with 58 percent, followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 17 percent and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley with 2 percent. Other candidates didn't register in the poll.

Twenty-three percent of Democrats said they were undecided, compared to 13 percent of Republicans. The poll's error margin is 4.5 percentage points.

July 22, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush best Hillary Clinton in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia

@PatriciaMazzei

Miami's two Republican presidential contenders, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, along with Wisconsin's Scott Walker, lead Democrat Hillary Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups in three key swing states, according to a new public-opinion survey.

The Quinnipiac University poll found Clinton trails or is statistically tied in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia with the three GOP candidates:

                               Colorado           Iowa            Virginia

Clinton                        38                    36                    41

Rubio                          46                    44                    43

 

Clinton                        36                    36                    39

Bush                            41                    42                    42

 

Clinton                        38                    37                    40

Walker                         47                    45                    43

In some cases in Iowa and Colorado, Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont does the same or better than Clinton against Bush, Rubio and Walker, according to the poll, which has an error margin of 2.8 percentage points. The results indicate the 2016 general election could be a close one, assuming Democrats nominate Clinton and Republicans nominate Walker, Bush or Rubio.

Clinton has negative favorability ratings in all three states -- but they're better than Republican Donald Trump, the most negatively viewed of all presidential candidates, according to the poll.

July 14, 2015

Suffolk poll: Donald Trump leads GOP presidential field, ahead of Jeb Bush

@PatriciaMazzei

Donald Trump is ahead in the 2016 Republican presidential race, according to a new national poll.

The survey by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump drawing 17 percent of GOP support, followed by Jeb Bush with 14 percent support. They were the only two Republicans with double-digit backing. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in fourth place with 5 percent.

A full 30 percent of the Republican electorate remains undecided, however. It's very early for polls -- especially national ones, as opposed to ones for early primary states -- to predict much. They reveal a snapshot in time given the still-small number of voters paying attention to the race.

In a hypothetical match-up against Democrat Hillary Clinton, Trump is upside down 51-34 percent. Bush fared best against the former Secretary of State, 46-42 percent. The poll's error margin is 3 percentage points.

"Trump is making daily headlines in advance of the primary season," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University political Research Center. "This has vaulted him to the top of the pack on the backs of conservative voters. But when you expand the electoral pool to include Democrats and independents that potency dissipates."

July 01, 2015

CNN/ORC poll: Jeb Bush rises and Marco Rubio falls but Hillary Clinton ahead of them both

A new CNN/ORC poll shows former Gov. Jeb Bush on the rise and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio down since May while Democrat Hillary Clinton continues to lead all GOP candidates in general election match-ups.

Bush stands at 19 percent, up from 13 percent in May. Trump follows at 12 percent, up from 3 percent before his announcement.

Rounding out the top five were former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (8 percent), neurosurgeon Ben Carson (7 percent) and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (7 percent).

Rubio was absent from the top five but just barely: he stood at 6 percent, down from 14 percent in May. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker who has not yet announced was also at 6 percent.

Clinton holds wide leads over other Democratic challengers. In a general election match-up, she holds leads over all the GOPers including Bush (54-41), Trump (59-34) and Rubio (56-39).

The poll was conducted by telephone June 26-28, among a random national sample of 1,017 adults. The margin of sampling error for results among the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

June 22, 2015

WSJ/NBC poll: It's starting to look like a Jeb Bush-Marco Rubio GOP race

@PatriciaMazzei

Three-quarters of Republican primary voters across the country say they could see themselves supporting Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio for president, putting them ahead of the rest of the candidate field, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

In March, 49 percent of respondents said they could see themselves voting for Bush, the former Florida governor, and 56 percent for Rubio, a U.S. senator, the poll found. Three months later, those percentages climbed to 75 for Bush and 74 for Rubio. In third place is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with 65 percent (up from 52 percent in March).

The particularly strong improvement for Bush comes a week after he formally announced his 2016 candidacy. The first primaries are still a long way away, though, and a national poll doesn't capture voters' sentiment in each of the early-voting states.

When asked to pick one candidate they could vote for in the election, 22 percent of respondents chose Bush, 17 percent chose Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, and 16 percent chose Rubio. The poll's error margin is 6.38 percentage points.

Quinnipiac poll: Lopez-Cantera trails Murphy, Obama and Scott still in 'job approval hole'

Lieutenant Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera has not made it official yet, but a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll says he is already trailing U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy in the 2016 U.S. Senate race.

If a matchup were held today, Lopez-Cantera would be behind by 40 to 28 percent. He is expected to announce on July 15. Also trailing Murphy is U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis: 39 to 31 percent. 

The news is equally grim for Gov. Rick Scott and President Barack Obama. Both remain mired in negative approval ratings in Florida, according to the poll taken June 4-15 of 1,147 Florida voters that has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Obama's job approval rating in Florida is 43 to 51 percent while Scott's is worse with 39 percent of voters having a favorable view of him and 49 percent who don't.

Here's the press release:

Continue reading "Quinnipiac poll: Lopez-Cantera trails Murphy, Obama and Scott still in 'job approval hole'" »

June 17, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Strongest GOP challenger to Hillary Clinton in Florida is Marco Rubio

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio's popularity surge since announcing his 2016 presidential campaign in April makes him the strongest Republican challenger in his home state of Florida -- at least for now -- against Democrat Hillary Clinton, according to a new public-opinion poll.

Clinton leads Rubio 47-44 percent in Florida, the survey by Quinnipiac University shows. Rubio also polls well in two other swing states, Ohio and Pennsylvania, even if he's not the GOP candidate in the tightest match-ups against Clinton in those cases.

In Ohio, potential contender and Gov. John Kasich leads Clinton 47-44 percent. Rubio trails her 45-42 percent. In Pennsylvania, she ekes ahead of Rubio 44-43 percent.

With error margins of 3 percentage points in Florida, 2.8 percentage points in Ohio and 3.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, most of the match-ups effectively show ties. So early in the 2016 race, the more important takeaway is the trend from several polls showing Rubio on the upswing, according to Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director.

"It's a long way until Election Day, but in the critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has a tiny edge over the GOP field," Brown said in a statement.

Eight other hopefuls are "within striking distance" in at least one of the three states, he noted. That includes newly announced candidate Jeb Bush, whom Clinton leads 46-42 percent in Florida, 42-41 percent in Ohio and 45-41 percent in Pennsylvania.

Clinton continues to struggle in survey questions asking voters if she is honest and trustworthy.

May 28, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: No leader in GOP presidential field

@PatriciaMazzei

The more candidates that jump into the 2016 Republican presidential race, the less clear the field appears in voters' eyes, according to a new poll.

The national survey by Quinnipiac University found five contenders atop the growing list, which means no one is the front-runner. Among the five are both Miami hopefuls, former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, and two more Florida residents, physician Ben Carson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, along with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. All poll at 10 percent each.

Comprising the rest of the top 10 are Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (7 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (6 percent), Donald Trump (5 percent), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (4 percent), and Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (2 percent each). The poll's error margin is 2.4 percent.

Organizers of the first GOP debate in August have said they'll fit no more than 10 people on stage. Half of the people who would be included today -- Bush, Walker, Trump, Christie and Kasich -- have yet to formally launch their candidacies.

"Safe to say, the 2016 Republican presidential primary is anyone's race," Tim Malloy, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement. "With no front-runner and identical numbers for the top five contenders, it's a horserace which can only be described as a scrambled field -– at least so far."

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads all potential Republican rivals, with the closest match-ups putting her 46-42 percent against Paul and 45-41 percent against Rubio. Were she to face Bush, the split would be 47-37 percent.

"This poll reflects what many others do -- Sen. Paul's brand of opportunity conservatism is the GOP's best hope of defeating Hillary Clinton and the Washington Machine," Paul spokesman Doug Stafford said in an email.

With so much of the field undefined, however, it's too early to read much into polls -- especially national ones that don't portray the state-by-state primary contests.

May 07, 2015

WMUR poll: Jeb Bush ahead in New Hampshire

@PatriciaMazzei

Another day, another poll in the early days of the 2016 presidential campaign. This one is good for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who according to the survey is ahead of the Republican pack in New Hampshire, which holds the first primary.

The WMUR Granite State poll shows Bush drawing 15 percent of likely GOP primary voters who responded to the poll, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 12 percent, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 11 percent and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 10 percent. The survey's error margin is 3.7 percentage points, which means the crowded candidate field remains tight.

"Bush, Rubio, Walker, and Paul seem to be separating themselves slightly from the rest of the field but this is likely due to press attention rather than any real campaign work," said Andrew Smith, Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Sixty percent of respondents hold a favorable opinion of Rubio, the best-liked candidate so far. That number is 51 percent for Paul and 50 percent for Walker. On the flip side, 34 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.