September 08, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Trump, Clinton tied at 47% in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Florida's presidential race remains as tight as ever, according to a new poll that shows Republican Donald Trump tied with Democrat Hillary Clinton in the nation's largest swing state.

Clinton and Trump are tied at 47 percent in a head-to-head match-up, a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found. They're tied at 43 percent in a four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson, who drew 8 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who drew 2 percent.

Clinton leads Trump by 20 percentage points, 56-36 percent, among women. Trump leads Clinton by 22 percentage points, 58-36 percent, among men. He holds a 48-39 percent lead among independent voters. Non-white voters favor Clinton by 67-25 percent.

"To understand the racial divide in the electorate, consider the sharp contrast between white men and non-white voters in Florida," Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement. "Trump is getting just 25 percent from minority voters, while Clinton gets just 26 percent of white men."

Quinnipiac surveyed voters in four other swing states and found Ohio also too close to call. Clinton edges Trump, but not by much, in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Last month, Quinnipiac also found Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in Florida, 46-45 percent.

"The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from his post-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio," Brown said Thursday. "Taking a bit longer view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOP convention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs."

In Florida, Quinnipiac polled 761 likely voters from Aug. 29-Sept. 7. The state poll has an error margin of 3.6 percentage points.

September 06, 2016

Democratic poll shows virtual tie between Rubio, Murphy in Florida Senate race

via @learyreports

Democrats today released a poll showing Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy in a virtual tie and argue that Murphy has room to become better known to voters across Florida.

The poll conducted for Senate Majority PAC, which is supporting Murphy, shows Murphy with 45 percent of the vote to Rubio’s 44 percent and 9 percent of voters undecided.

The Real Clear Politics average, which does not include this poll, has Rubio leading by 5.7 percentage points.

Civis surveyed 1,463 people by landline and cell phone from Aug. 9-15. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

“There is substantial opportunity to grow Murphy’s vote share with groups where we expect support to coalesce after the primary and as voters become more familiar with the candidates nearing Election Day. We suspect that there is not yet Democratic consolidation due to this survey being conducted before the primary,” reads a polling memo prepared by Civis Analytics.

It said Rubio’s favorability had declined 9 points since he announced he would run for re-election.

“Rubio is already a well-known candidate in the state and is likely at his ceiling. In contrast, Murphy has room to grow among several Democratic leaning groups that should be responsive to communications. He is well positioned to win this seat in the fall.”

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

August 29, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Voters unimpressed by Florida's Zika response

@PatriciaMazzei

Only 29 percent of Southeast Florida voters think the state's response to the Zika virus outbreak has been "excellent" or "good," according to a new poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Statewide, 37 percent of poll respondents rated Florida's Zika control as "fair." Twenty-two percent rated it poor.

In Miami-Dade County, the center of the Zika outbreak, local authorities have complained about the state's handling of the crisis.

Asked their level of concern about contracting the virus, 48 percent of poll respondents declared themselves "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned." Concern was higher among women than men and among South Florida residents than North Florida residents. Older people said they were more worried about Zika than younger people, even though the virus is a particular risk to pregnant women.

Mason-Dixon polled 625 registered voters from Aug. 22-24. The poll's error margin is 4 percentage points.

August 26, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Clinton 44%, Trump 42% in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Florida's presidential race is quite close, according to a new poll, with Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by only 2 percentage points.

Clinton's 44-42 percent advantage over Trump is within the 4-percentage-point error margin of the survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Libertarian Gary Johnson received 6 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2 percent.

The survey shows Trump is less liked that Clinton. Thirty-five percent of respondents viewed her favorably while 45 percent viewed her unfavorably. For Trump, those numbers were 29 percent and 52 percent, respectively.

Clinton leads among Democrats, women, African-Americans and Hispanics. Trump is favored among Republicans, independents, men and non-Hispanic whites. 

Florida's swing I-4 corridor is essentially tied. Trump is ahead in North and Southwest Florida, and Clinton in Southeast Florida.

Mason-Dixon polled 625 registered voters by phone from Aug. 22-24.

August 25, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Rubio 46%, Murphy 43%

@PatriciaMazzei

Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Patrick Murphy might cruise to primary victories in Florida's U.S. Senate race Tuesday, a new poll suggests, but they will be locked in a much tighter contest for the November general election.

The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey shows Rubio, the incumbent senator, romping primary challenger Carlos Beruff by 61-22 percent. Murphy, a Jupiter congressman, leads Orlando Rep. Alan Grayson by a commanding 55-22 percent.

But in a general-election match-up, Rubio is ahead of Murphy by 46-43 percent -- a virtual tie, given the poll's error margin of 4 percentage points. Rubio leads among Republicans, independents, men, whites and Hispanics. Murphy is ahead among Democrats, women and African-Americans.

Mason-Dixon polled 625 registered voters by phone from Aug. 22-24. The error margin for the primary numbers -- obtained by oversampling 400 likely Democratic voters and 400 likely Republican voters -- is 5 percentage points.

August 16, 2016

Monmouth poll: Clinton, Rubio ahead in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Hillary Clinton holds a 9-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, according to a new poll by Monmouth University, which also found Marco Rubio ahead of his two chief rivals for U.S. Senate.

Clinton drew 48 percent support in the poll, compared to Trump's 39 percent. Six percent went to Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 1 percent to Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Clinton's advantage comes from her backing from Hispanic, black and Asian voters, who favor her over Trump by 65-19 percent. She also bests Trump among white women, by 49-39 percent, though he leads among white voters overall, including both college and non-college graduates. She's got stronger support among Democrats (92 percent) than Trump does among Republicans (79 percent). Independent voters are also leaning toward Clinton, by 47-30 percent. 

Most voters still view Clinton and Trump very unfavorably.

"The gender split among white voters in Florida is huge," Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. "Men are drawn to Trump's message while women are not. These offsetting factors give Clinton the edge."

In the Senate race, incumbent Rubio leads U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Jupiter by 48-43 percent and U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson of Orlando by 50-39 percent. Murphy and Grayson are running in the Aug. 30 Democratic primary.

Among poll respondents, 53 percent said they thought Rubio chose to run for re-election to improve his chances to seek the presidency again. Sixty-three percent were unaware Rubio had backed Trump; most respondents didn't care but about 25 percent said the endorsement would make them less likely to vote for Rubio for Senate.

"Rubio's endorsement of Trump could come back to bite him if more voters actually learn about it," Murray said. "It remains to be seen whether the eventual Democratic nominee can turn this to his advantage in the general election campaign."

The telephone poll of 402 likely voters was conducted from Aug. 12-15. It has an error margin if 4.9 percentage points.

August 04, 2016

Suffolk poll: Clinton leads Trump 48%-42% in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Hillary Clinton holds a 6-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, according to a new Suffolk University poll.

Clinton leads Trump 48-42 percent in a head-to-head match-up, the poll shows. Clinton still leads in a four-way poll with 43 percent, followed by Trump's 39 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson's 4 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein's 3 percent.

South Florida is the Democratic nominee's stronghold: Clinton's got a 24-percentage-point advantage over Trump (57-33 percent) in that region. The Republican nominee fared much better in North Florida, where he campaigned Wednesday: Trump is ahead of Clinton there by 54-39 percent.

"Hillary Clinton is leading thanks to southern Florida and women," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, said in a statement. "Trump is even seeing some Republicans holding back at this point while Clinton is a bit stronger among registered Democrats."

Suffolk surveyed 500 likely voters between Aug. 1-3. The poll's error margin is plus-or-minus 4.4 percentage points.

July 14, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Rubio's lead has widened since entering Senate race

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio’s lead over his Democratic rivals has grown into the double digits since hedecided to run for re-election to the U.S. Senate, according to a new poll that shows — for now — the Republican incumbent isn't being dragged down in Florida by presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump.

The Quinnipiac University survey shows Rubio widening his advantage in potential head-to-head match-ups against Democratic Reps. Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson. Rubio is ahead of Murphy by 13 points (50-37 percent) and of Grayson by 12 points (50-38 percent).

Last month, when Rubio still hadn’t made up his mind about running, he led Murphy by 7 points (47-40 percent) and Grayson by 8 points (48-40 percent).

Murphy, who has the high-profile backing of President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and other national Democrats, had a particularly difficult end of June. He was hit with a serious of news reports indicating he had repeatedly inflated his résumé.

“Democrats made fun of Sen. Marco Rubio when he opted for a last-minute re-election bid in Florida, but he may be on the way to a last laugh, having quickly opened double digit leads over both Democratic challengers,” Peter A. Brown, the poll's director, said in a statement.

The poll didn’t measure Rubio’s popularity against his sole GOP primary rival, Carlos Beruff, who would lose to Murphy by 40-34 percent and be tied with Grayson at 38 percent.

Polls generally tighten in a general election, and Senate races may be affected by the presidential contest at the top of the ticket. The Florida primary is Aug. 30.

More here.

July 13, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Clinton loses Florida lead over trust questions

@PatriciaMazzei

Democrat Hillary Clinton has lost her lead over Republican Donald Trump in the crucial swing state of Florida, a new poll shows, as voters question whether she is trustworthy.

Trump is now ahead of Clinton by 42-39 percent, according to the Quinnipiac University poll. A month ago, the same survey had Clinton up by 47-39 percent. Her eight-percentage-point advantage has evaporated since FBI Director James Comey slammed the former Secretary of State over her use of private email while in government.

The FBI recommended no charges, and the Justice Department agreed, closing its investigation into Clinton. But the political damage had been done.

Florida poll respondents said Trump was more honest and trustworthy than Clinton, by a wide margin of 50-37 percent. Last month, Trump led in that same measure by only 43-40 percent.

Clinton has also lost ground among no-party affiliation voters in Florida. They broke from Trump by 43-40 percent in the poll, whereas they favored Clinton by 44-35 percent last month.

She's still seen as more intelligent and better prepared to be president than Trump. But they're tied on a question about who has higher moral standards -- where Clinton was ahead in June -- he's still favored by men and her lead with women has gotten smaller.

"In Florida, Donald Trump is getting only 21 percent of the non-white vote," Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement. "Although he is winning among white voters, who are mainly Republican, victory in Florida will be a very difficult lift for him if he can’t do better among non-white voters."

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,015 voters from June 30-July 11. The poll has an error margin of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points.

The survey also found Clinton and Trump statistically tied in two other major swing states, Ohio and Pennsylvania, just days before the Republican National Convention is set to begin in Cleveland. The Democrats will follow the last week of July in Philadelphia.

July 11, 2016

Trump narrowly leads Clinton in Florida, poll by Scott PAC says

via @learyreports

Donald Trump is beating Hillary Clinton in Florida by two percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent, according to a poll released Monday by a group tied to Gov. Rick Scott.

Other recent polls in Florida have shown the reverse, so the larger take away is that Florida remains competitive.

“Four months out from the 2016 presidential election, both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are badly upside-down by image in the state of Florida,” reads a polling memo from OnMessage. “That said, Clinton fares worse than Trump sitting 13 points in the red at 42% favorable to 55% unfavorable compared to Trump’s -11 (43%/54%). Among Independents, Clinton’s image falls to -20 (36% fav/56 unfav) while Trump fares better, in comparison, at just -8 (43% fav/51% unfav).”

“As the old adage goes, ballot follows image, and this is currently the case in Florida as Donald Trump edges out Hillary Clinton on the presidential ballot, 47% to 45%.

The poll was conducted for Let’s Get to Work by OnMessage Inc. Telephone interviews were conducted June 26-28 2016. This survey consists of 800 likely voters in Florida and was stratified to reflect historic voter trends. The margin of error is +/-3.46%.

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times