September 20, 2016

How 4 pollsters interpreted the same Florida polling data

From The New York Times:

On Monday, in partnership with Siena College, the Upshot published a poll of 867 likely Florida voters. Our poll showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald J. Trump by one percentage point.

We decided to share our raw data with four well-respected pollsters and asked them to estimate the result of the poll themselves.


Here’s what they found:

Pollster Clinton Trump Margin
Charles Franklin
Marquette Law
42% 39% Clinton +3%
Patrick Ruffini
Echelon Insights
39% 38% Clinton +1%
Omero, Green, Rosenblatt
Penn Schoen Berland Research
42% 38% Clinton +4%
Corbett-Davies, Gelman, Rothschild
Stanford University/Columbia University/Microsoft Research
40% 41% Trump +1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College
41% 40% Clinton +1%

More here.

Monmouth poll: Clinton's Florida lead over Trump has shrunk


Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in Florida but by a smaller margin than she did last month, according to a new poll that, taken with other recent surveys, indicates the race has tightened significantly in the nation's largest swing state.

The Monmouth University polls shows Clinton ahead of Trump by 46-41 percent -- within the survey's 4.9 percentage-point error margin. Last month, Clinton held a 48-39 percent lead. (Support for Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein remained unchanged, at 6 percent and 1 percent, respectively.)

"Although Clinton's lead is smaller than in our last poll, she is maintaining her advantage in Florida given the ominous state of her poll standing last week," Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. He argued that Florida is "less of a crucial battleground" as Clinton and Trump wage political war in the Rust Belt states. "However, a win here would make the path to 270 electoral votes that much easier for the victor and difficult for the loser," he said.

Other recent polls have shown a tied Florida race. What matters most is the trend: Taken together, the latest surveys all point to a closer race, with Trump making up ground.

While other polls have found Marco Rubio holding on to a lead over Patrick Murphy in Florida's U.S. Senate race, Monmouth's results show a smaller Rubio advantage of 47-45 percent. Last month, Rubio was ahead by 48-43 percent.

Monmouth interviewed 400 likely Florida voters from Sept. 16-19.

September 19, 2016

NYT/Siena poll: Clinton 41%, Trump 40% in Florida


The Florida presidential race remains too close to call 50 days before the election, according to a new Siena College poll for the New York Times Upshot.

Hillary Clinton is statistically tied with Donald Trump 41-40 percent in a head-to-head match-up, according to the poll. They're actually tied 43-43 percent in a four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who drew 9 percent and 2 percent support, respectively.

The poll found Trump's extraordinary support among white voters to be keeping him afloat in the nation's largest swing state. They prefer Trump to Clinton by 51-30 percent.

In the U.S. Senate race, the poll found Marco Rubio ahead of Patrick Murphy by 48-42 percent.

Because Siena polled likely voters based on data from Florida's voter file, the poll may be undercounting young voters who have yet to register and tend to lean Democratic. The poll's sample size of Hispanics might also be too small to accurately measure the state's Latino electorate; to do so, Florida pollsters often prefer to poll Hispanics only, or to oversample the demographic in their surveys.

September 14, 2016

CNN/ORC poll: Trump edges Clinton in super-tight Florida


Another poll, another virtual tie in Florida's presidential race -- except this time, it's Donald Trump who's edging Hillary Clinton.

A new CNN/ORC poll shows Trump drawing 47 percent of Florida's likely vote, compared to Clinton's 44 percent. That's within the polls 3.5 percentage-point error margin. Libertarian Gary Johnson drew 6 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew 1 percent.

Recent Florida polls have shown the race tied or in a similar statistical tie, but with Clinton holding a slight advantage over Trump. Surveys in other battleground states also suggest Trump is on the upswing.

In the Florida U.S. Senate race, the CNN poll shows Republican Marco Rubio comfortably ahead of Democrat Patrick Murphy, 54-43 percent. Other polls have suggested the race is closer.

FIU poll: Most Miami-Dade Cubans favor new U.S.-Cuba policy

Cuba plane

In the 18 months since President Barack Obama announced a new U.S.-Cuba policy, his views have won bigger support among his most skeptic audience: Miami-Dade County Cuban Americans.

A new Florida International University poll shows a majority of local Cuban Americans — 56 percent — “strongly” or “mostly” favors reengagement with the island.

The results are from FIU’s first Cuba poll since Dec. 17, 2014, the date when Obama said he would reestablish diplomatic relations with Cuba, and March 2016, when Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit Cuba in more than eight decades. Prior surveys, which the university began conducting in 1991, had a trend of increasing public support for normalizing Cuba relations. The latest data suggest Obama’s policy has pushed that trend even further.

“It’s given kind of a space for that kind of attitude — out of frustration, out of hope, out of something — where it can be expressed more,” said Guillermo Grenier, one of the professors who conducted the survey of 1,000 respondents for the university’s Cuban Research Institute.

For the first time in the poll’s history, a clear majority of respondents — 54 percent — also wants to end the Cuban embargo, compared to 32 percent who want to keep it (14 percent don’t know or wouldn’t say). The last time FIU conducted the poll, in 2014, respondents were against the embargo by 45-41 percent, with 12 percent in the don’t-know/wouldn’t-answer category.

Asked if the embargo was successful, 55 percent said it wasn’t “at all.” Only 17 percent said it worked well or very well, with 19 percent saying it had worked “not very well.”

This being a presidential election year, the pollsters also tried to gauge the popularity of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump among local Cubans. They favored Trump by 36-31 percent, though that number is somewhat stale because the survey was conducted from July 11-Aug. 12.

More here.

Photo credit: Al Diaz, Miami Herald staff

September 13, 2016

Poll: Clinton leads Trump among Florida Hispanics but has yet to hit Obama mark


Florida Hispanic voters strongly favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, according to a new poll, but she has yet to reach the level of support among Latinos that helped President Barack Obama win the battleground state — and reelection — four years ago.

The poll by Miami-based Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group shows Clinton drawing 53 percent among Florida Hispanics, compared to Trump’s 29 percent. That’s a significant 24-point lead. But Obama hit 60 percent among Latinos in 2012, according to exit polls. He defeated Mitt Romney in Florida by a single percentage point.

“She should not only be where Obama is — she should be beating those numbers, and she’s not,” pollster Fernand Amandi told the Miami Herald. He conducted the survey for Univision and The Washington Post.

Trump is more disliked than Romney, who ended up with 39 percent of Hispanic support. Clinton has yet to fully capitalize on that unpopularity — perhaps because 46 percent of poll respondents consider the former secretary of state a “liar.”

Two third-party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, received 6 percent and 2 percent support in the poll, respectively.

The pollsters conducted interviews in English and Spanish of 400 Hispanic registered voters in Florida from Aug. 24-Sept. 3. The survey’s error margin is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Clinton is also underperforming compared to Obama in three other heavily Hispanic swing states polled: Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

More here.

Photo credit: Al Diaz, Miami Herald staff

September 09, 2016

Poll: Trump less popular among Florida Hispanics than Romney

via @learyreports

Hillary Clinton has huge lead on Donald Trump among Florida’s Hispanic voters, a poll released Friday shows, the Democrat taking 62 percent of the vote and the Republican 27 percent.

That puts Trump below the 39 percent Mitt Romney drew in 2012.

The poll from America’s Voice, an immigrant advocacy group, was conducted by Latino Decisions and matches other surveys indicating a wide lead for Clinton. The overall percentage is made up of people who said they were certain, not certain or leaned one way for a candidate.

The Hispanic community also views Trump significantly more negatively than Clinton, with the Republican netting a 28 percent approval and Clinton 60 percent.

Asked if Trump has made the GOP more welcoming to Latinos or more hostile or had no effect, 61 percent said more hostile, 12 percent said more welcoming and 16 percent said he had no effect.

Continue reading "Poll: Trump less popular among Florida Hispanics than Romney" »

September 08, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Trump, Clinton tied at 47% in Florida


Florida's presidential race remains as tight as ever, according to a new poll that shows Republican Donald Trump tied with Democrat Hillary Clinton in the nation's largest swing state.

Clinton and Trump are tied at 47 percent in a head-to-head match-up, a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found. They're tied at 43 percent in a four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson, who drew 8 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who drew 2 percent.

Clinton leads Trump by 20 percentage points, 56-36 percent, among women. Trump leads Clinton by 22 percentage points, 58-36 percent, among men. He holds a 48-39 percent lead among independent voters. Non-white voters favor Clinton by 67-25 percent.

"To understand the racial divide in the electorate, consider the sharp contrast between white men and non-white voters in Florida," Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement. "Trump is getting just 25 percent from minority voters, while Clinton gets just 26 percent of white men."

Quinnipiac surveyed voters in four other swing states and found Ohio also too close to call. Clinton edges Trump, but not by much, in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Last month, Quinnipiac also found Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in Florida, 46-45 percent.

"The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from his post-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio," Brown said Thursday. "Taking a bit longer view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOP convention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs."

In Florida, Quinnipiac polled 761 likely voters from Aug. 29-Sept. 7. The state poll has an error margin of 3.6 percentage points.

September 06, 2016

Democratic poll shows virtual tie between Rubio, Murphy in Florida Senate race

via @learyreports

Democrats today released a poll showing Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy in a virtual tie and argue that Murphy has room to become better known to voters across Florida.

The poll conducted for Senate Majority PAC, which is supporting Murphy, shows Murphy with 45 percent of the vote to Rubio’s 44 percent and 9 percent of voters undecided.

The Real Clear Politics average, which does not include this poll, has Rubio leading by 5.7 percentage points.

Civis surveyed 1,463 people by landline and cell phone from Aug. 9-15. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

“There is substantial opportunity to grow Murphy’s vote share with groups where we expect support to coalesce after the primary and as voters become more familiar with the candidates nearing Election Day. We suspect that there is not yet Democratic consolidation due to this survey being conducted before the primary,” reads a polling memo prepared by Civis Analytics.

It said Rubio’s favorability had declined 9 points since he announced he would run for re-election.

“Rubio is already a well-known candidate in the state and is likely at his ceiling. In contrast, Murphy has room to grow among several Democratic leaning groups that should be responsive to communications. He is well positioned to win this seat in the fall.”

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

August 29, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Voters unimpressed by Florida's Zika response


Only 29 percent of Southeast Florida voters think the state's response to the Zika virus outbreak has been "excellent" or "good," according to a new poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Statewide, 37 percent of poll respondents rated Florida's Zika control as "fair." Twenty-two percent rated it poor.

In Miami-Dade County, the center of the Zika outbreak, local authorities have complained about the state's handling of the crisis.

Asked their level of concern about contracting the virus, 48 percent of poll respondents declared themselves "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned." Concern was higher among women than men and among South Florida residents than North Florida residents. Older people said they were more worried about Zika than younger people, even though the virus is a particular risk to pregnant women.

Mason-Dixon polled 625 registered voters from Aug. 22-24. The poll's error margin is 4 percentage points.