October 03, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Debate helped Clinton in Florida


Hillary Clinton's strong debate improved her standing in Florida against Donald Trump, according to a new poll published a week after the two presidential candidates faced off for the first time.

Clinton now leads Trump by 46-41 percent, the Quinnipiac University survey shows -- a significant improvement for Clinton, who tied Trump at 43 percent in the same poll published Sept. 8.

Florida was the only swing state polled by the university post-debate where Clinton's numbers moved. Quinnipiac polled 545 likely Florida voters from Sept. 27-Oct. 2. The poll has an error margin of 4.2 percentage points.

"Although Hillary Clinton clearly won the first debate with Donald Trump, this victory did her only little good in her race for the White House,” said assistant poll director Peter A. Brown said in a statement. "Likely voters in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the four largest and most important Swing States seem little closer to an Election Day decision."

Quinnipiac found two third-party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, polling at 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively, in Florida. In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton leads Trump 49-44 percent.

Asked who won the debate, 56 percent of Florida poll respondents picked Clinton, compared to 21 percent who picked Trump. Of those who handed Clinton the victory, 27 percent were Republican.

"One thing is for sure: Many voters don't have to think a presidential candidate is a good debater to support their candidate in 2016," Brown said. "In Florida, likely voters give Hillary Clinton a 35 percentage point margin for winning the debate, but only a five-point margin in the election matchup."

September 30, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Clinton gets slight post-debate bump in Florida


Hillary Clinton's popularity in crucial Florida increased ever so slightly after her successful debate Monday night against Donald Trump, according to a new poll that still shows a very tight race in the state.

Clinton leads Trump by 46-42 percent, according to Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which represents a 2-point bump for the Democrat since the last Mason-Dixon survey a month ago. The poll's error margin is 3.5 percentage points.

"Despite small shifts that have given Clinton a post-debate bump, the race is still very competitive and the outcome will hinge on where and among whom voter turnout is higher," Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said in a statement.

The two third-party candidates who did not participate in the debate -- Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein -- drew 7 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in the latest poll. Both Clinton and Stein are campaigning in South Florida Friday.

Trump continues to lead among older, whiter voters in North and Southwest Florida. He's also ahead of Clinton among independents, by 41-33 percent. 

Clinton's advantage over Trump is among women, Hispanics and blacks, and in Southeast Florida. She's got a narrow edge over Trump in the swing I-4 corridor, thanks to her support in the Tampa Bay area.

Mason-Dixon polled 820 registered voters from Sept. 27-29.

September 22, 2016

Suffolk poll: Trump up 1 in Florida

via @adamsmithtimes

Suffolk University, the pollster (we will never stop reminding you) who a month before Barack Obama won Florida and Virginia, stopped polling those states because concluded they were in the bag for Mitt Romney, has a new Florida poll showing Donald Trump with 45 percent support, Hillary Clinton with 44 percent, Gary Johnson at 3 percent and Jill Stein at 1 percent.

--ADAM C. SMITH, Tampa Bay Times

FAU online/robopoll: Clinton's lead among Hispanics smaller in Florida than in other battlegrounds


Hillary Clinton maintains a big advantage over Donald Trump among Florida Hispanics, according to a new poll.

Florida Atlantic University found Clinton ahead of Trump by 53-34 percent. That's a robust, 19-point margin that's nevertheless smaller than the once Clinton holds over Trump among Latinos in Colorado (51 points), Nevada (29 points), North Carolina (38 points) and Ohio (22 points). Florida Hispanics tend to lean less Democratic because older Cuban Americans are heavily Republican.

"Hispanics are one of the fastest growing populations in the United States. Republicans cannot continue to underperform with them and maintain a realistic ability to win some of these battleground states," Kevin Wagner, an FAU associate professor of political science, said in a statement. "The electoral map becomes increasingly difficult for Republicans if they cannot narrow these large margins."

FAU polled using a mix of online surveys and robocalls -- a methodology considered less reliable than live calls to voters on cellphones and land lines. The university's Business and Economics Polling Initiative polled 400 registered Hispanic voters from Sept. 15-19, and the poll has an error margin of 4.9 percentage points.

September 20, 2016

How 4 pollsters interpreted the same Florida polling data

From The New York Times:

On Monday, in partnership with Siena College, the Upshot published a poll of 867 likely Florida voters. Our poll showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald J. Trump by one percentage point.

We decided to share our raw data with four well-respected pollsters and asked them to estimate the result of the poll themselves.


Here’s what they found:

Pollster Clinton Trump Margin
Charles Franklin
Marquette Law
42% 39% Clinton +3%
Patrick Ruffini
Echelon Insights
39% 38% Clinton +1%
Omero, Green, Rosenblatt
Penn Schoen Berland Research
42% 38% Clinton +4%
Corbett-Davies, Gelman, Rothschild
Stanford University/Columbia University/Microsoft Research
40% 41% Trump +1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College
41% 40% Clinton +1%

More here.

Monmouth poll: Clinton's Florida lead over Trump has shrunk


Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in Florida but by a smaller margin than she did last month, according to a new poll that, taken with other recent surveys, indicates the race has tightened significantly in the nation's largest swing state.

The Monmouth University polls shows Clinton ahead of Trump by 46-41 percent -- within the survey's 4.9 percentage-point error margin. Last month, Clinton held a 48-39 percent lead. (Support for Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein remained unchanged, at 6 percent and 1 percent, respectively.)

"Although Clinton's lead is smaller than in our last poll, she is maintaining her advantage in Florida given the ominous state of her poll standing last week," Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. He argued that Florida is "less of a crucial battleground" as Clinton and Trump wage political war in the Rust Belt states. "However, a win here would make the path to 270 electoral votes that much easier for the victor and difficult for the loser," he said.

Other recent polls have shown a tied Florida race. What matters most is the trend: Taken together, the latest surveys all point to a closer race, with Trump making up ground.

While other polls have found Marco Rubio holding on to a lead over Patrick Murphy in Florida's U.S. Senate race, Monmouth's results show a smaller Rubio advantage of 47-45 percent. Last month, Rubio was ahead by 48-43 percent.

Monmouth interviewed 400 likely Florida voters from Sept. 16-19.

September 19, 2016

NYT/Siena poll: Clinton 41%, Trump 40% in Florida


The Florida presidential race remains too close to call 50 days before the election, according to a new Siena College poll for the New York Times Upshot.

Hillary Clinton is statistically tied with Donald Trump 41-40 percent in a head-to-head match-up, according to the poll. They're actually tied 43-43 percent in a four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who drew 9 percent and 2 percent support, respectively.

The poll found Trump's extraordinary support among white voters to be keeping him afloat in the nation's largest swing state. They prefer Trump to Clinton by 51-30 percent.

In the U.S. Senate race, the poll found Marco Rubio ahead of Patrick Murphy by 48-42 percent.

Because Siena polled likely voters based on data from Florida's voter file, the poll may be undercounting young voters who have yet to register and tend to lean Democratic. The poll's sample size of Hispanics might also be too small to accurately measure the state's Latino electorate; to do so, Florida pollsters often prefer to poll Hispanics only, or to oversample the demographic in their surveys.

September 14, 2016

CNN/ORC poll: Trump edges Clinton in super-tight Florida


Another poll, another virtual tie in Florida's presidential race -- except this time, it's Donald Trump who's edging Hillary Clinton.

A new CNN/ORC poll shows Trump drawing 47 percent of Florida's likely vote, compared to Clinton's 44 percent. That's within the polls 3.5 percentage-point error margin. Libertarian Gary Johnson drew 6 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew 1 percent.

Recent Florida polls have shown the race tied or in a similar statistical tie, but with Clinton holding a slight advantage over Trump. Surveys in other battleground states also suggest Trump is on the upswing.

In the Florida U.S. Senate race, the CNN poll shows Republican Marco Rubio comfortably ahead of Democrat Patrick Murphy, 54-43 percent. Other polls have suggested the race is closer.

FIU poll: Most Miami-Dade Cubans favor new U.S.-Cuba policy

Cuba plane

In the 18 months since President Barack Obama announced a new U.S.-Cuba policy, his views have won bigger support among his most skeptic audience: Miami-Dade County Cuban Americans.

A new Florida International University poll shows a majority of local Cuban Americans — 56 percent — “strongly” or “mostly” favors reengagement with the island.

The results are from FIU’s first Cuba poll since Dec. 17, 2014, the date when Obama said he would reestablish diplomatic relations with Cuba, and March 2016, when Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit Cuba in more than eight decades. Prior surveys, which the university began conducting in 1991, had a trend of increasing public support for normalizing Cuba relations. The latest data suggest Obama’s policy has pushed that trend even further.

“It’s given kind of a space for that kind of attitude — out of frustration, out of hope, out of something — where it can be expressed more,” said Guillermo Grenier, one of the professors who conducted the survey of 1,000 respondents for the university’s Cuban Research Institute.

For the first time in the poll’s history, a clear majority of respondents — 54 percent — also wants to end the Cuban embargo, compared to 32 percent who want to keep it (14 percent don’t know or wouldn’t say). The last time FIU conducted the poll, in 2014, respondents were against the embargo by 45-41 percent, with 12 percent in the don’t-know/wouldn’t-answer category.

Asked if the embargo was successful, 55 percent said it wasn’t “at all.” Only 17 percent said it worked well or very well, with 19 percent saying it had worked “not very well.”

This being a presidential election year, the pollsters also tried to gauge the popularity of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump among local Cubans. They favored Trump by 36-31 percent, though that number is somewhat stale because the survey was conducted from July 11-Aug. 12.

More here.

Photo credit: Al Diaz, Miami Herald staff

September 13, 2016

Poll: Clinton leads Trump among Florida Hispanics but has yet to hit Obama mark


Florida Hispanic voters strongly favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, according to a new poll, but she has yet to reach the level of support among Latinos that helped President Barack Obama win the battleground state — and reelection — four years ago.

The poll by Miami-based Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group shows Clinton drawing 53 percent among Florida Hispanics, compared to Trump’s 29 percent. That’s a significant 24-point lead. But Obama hit 60 percent among Latinos in 2012, according to exit polls. He defeated Mitt Romney in Florida by a single percentage point.

“She should not only be where Obama is — she should be beating those numbers, and she’s not,” pollster Fernand Amandi told the Miami Herald. He conducted the survey for Univision and The Washington Post.

Trump is more disliked than Romney, who ended up with 39 percent of Hispanic support. Clinton has yet to fully capitalize on that unpopularity — perhaps because 46 percent of poll respondents consider the former secretary of state a “liar.”

Two third-party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, received 6 percent and 2 percent support in the poll, respectively.

The pollsters conducted interviews in English and Spanish of 400 Hispanic registered voters in Florida from Aug. 24-Sept. 3. The survey’s error margin is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Clinton is also underperforming compared to Obama in three other heavily Hispanic swing states polled: Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

More here.

Photo credit: Al Diaz, Miami Herald staff