May 20, 2016

Florida poll: Donald Trump underwater with women, Hispanics

via @adamsmithtimes

That's the bad news for presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump in the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute poll of 622 frequent voters. The good news? His numbers are improving in must-win Florida and he is neck and neck with similarly unpopular Hillary Clinton. She leads Trump 45 percent to 43 percent in the Chamber's poll.

 

"Right now, no one knows who will win the General Election and will be our next president, but we can tell you it seems to be improving for Trump daily," Marian Johnson, the Chamber's senior vice president for political strategy wrote in a memo to Chamber members. "A disgruntled, angry electorate seems to work in his favor."

--ADAM C. SMITH, TAMPA BAY TIMES

May 18, 2016

Rival polls show Joe Garcia leading Democratic primary for swing Miami congressional seat

IMG_joe_garcia_by_koltun_2_1_SI345UAN_L78561106

@PatriciaMazzei

The Democratic race for Florida’s most competitive congressional district looks like former U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia’s to lose.

Garcia holds a 25-point lead over rival Annette Taddeo, according to a new internal poll by Garcia’s campaign. That’s 15 percentage points higher than it was in January, when Garcia’s team surveyed the match-up before he launched his candidacy for the 26th congressional district.

“This poll reflects the strong support this community has for Joe Garcia,” campaign spokesman Javier Hernandez said in a statement released with a two-page summary of the latest results. “The people of this district know that when they choose Joe Garcia, their voices will be heard in Washington.”

Garcia bests Taddeo by 53-28 percent, with 19 percent of likely Democratic primary voters undecided , according to the poll conducted by the campaign’s pollster, Pete Brodnitz of Expedition Strategies. The January poll by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, an outside firm, pegged Garcia’s lead at 34-24 percent, with 42 percent undecided.

The new lead jibes with an internal poll by Taddeo’s campaign shared in its entirety with the Miami Herald. That survey had Garcia ahead 48-27 percent — by 21 points — with 25 percent undecided.

But Taddeo’s poll also showed her doing far better than Garcia once voters learned about Taddeo’s personal background as the Colombian immigrant daughter of a Colombian mother and an American father, and about her positions on issues important to progressives.

More here.

Photo credit: Roberto Koltun, el Nuevo Herald

May 10, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Clinton, Trump running neck-and-neck in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

The nation’s largest swing state could once again prove to be a decisive battleground between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, according to a new statewide poll that shows the likely presidential rivals essentially tied in Florida.

The Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday found support for Clinton and Trump at 43-42 percent, with a “massive” gender gap between women, who back Clinton, and men, who back Trump. Women favor Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, 48-35 percent, while men prefer Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, 49-36 percent.

Florida’s large Hispanic population could pose problems for Trump, but Clinton’s got her own problems with the state’s white men, according to Peter A. Brown, the poll’s assistant director.

“Republicans’ weakness among minority voters is well known,”he said. “But the reason this race is so close overall is Clinton’s historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men.”

Quinnipiac found the same 43-42 percent Clinton-Trump split in Pennsylvania, and a 39-43 percent Trump edge in Ohio. The university surveyed voters in all three swing states because no candidate since 1960 has won the presidency without winning at least two of the three states.

Though Clinton has virtually assured her nomination, rival and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders fares better than she does against Trump in all three states, according to Quinnipiac. He leads 44-42 percent in Florida, 47-41 percent in Pennsylvania and 43-41 percent in Ohio.

More here.

May 09, 2016

Poll: Medical pot scores high among Miami-Dade voters

@PatriciaMazzei

Miami-Dade County voters want to legalize medical marijuana, according to a new local poll — but perhaps not by high enough numbers to score passage of a proposed Florida constitutional amendment come November.

Voters favor allowing physicians to recommend pot for medicinal purposes by 61-36 percent, with only 3 percent undecided, the poll by Bendixen & Amandi International found. That’s a fat enough super-majority to clear the state’s 60-percent amendment threshold — but just barely.

The narrow margin might worry proponents of the ballot measure, said Coral Gables pollster Fernand Amandi, who conducted the survey for the Miami Herald, el Nuevo Herald, WLRN and Univision 23.

“On these constitutional questions over the years, what I have found is that support needs to be in the mid-60s to feel confident that this thing is going to pass,” said Amandi, a Democrat unaffiliated with the advocacy group pushing for legalization, United for Care.

Two years ago, another Bendixen & Amandi poll suggested the popular medical-cannabis effort might be vulnerable to an opposition campaign aimed at Cuban-American conservatives in liberal-leaning Miami-Dade. Led by Drug Free America, that’s what opponents did. The amendment garnered 58 percent support statewide (and in Miami-Dade) in 2014, not enough to pass.

More here.

Poll: Hillary Clinton trounces Donald Trump in Miami-Dade

@PatriciaMazzei

Hillary Clinton is so much more popular than Donald Trump among Miami-Dade County voters that even a significant number of Republicans support her in the likely presidential match-up, a new local poll has found.

Clinton leads Trump by a whopping 52-25 percent, with 23 percent of respondents undecided, according to the poll by Bendixen & Amandi International for the Miami Herald, el Nuevo Herald, WLRN and Univision 23.

One-fifth of Republicans said they back Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has yet to garner a GOP majority, with 48 percent of Republicans saying they’d back him and nearly a third undecided.

“This should be an early sign of potential concern and worry for the Trump campaign,” said pollster Fernand Amandi, a Democrat who is not working for any presidential campaign. “If she gets 20 percent of Republican voters statewide, it’s going to be a very early night on Nov. 8.”

Several prominent local Republicans have said they can’t back Trump, although they also won’t vote for Clinton.

More here.

May 03, 2016

87% of Florida Hispanics view Donald Trump negatively, poll says

via @adamsmithtimes

Even though a whopping 42 percent of Florida voters have a "very unfavorable" view of Hillary Clinton and more see her image negatively than positively, the likely Democratic presidential nominee today easily beats either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz in Florida, according to the latest tracking poll by the Republican-leaning Associated Industries of Florida. Get this: Among Hispanics (about 14 percent of the electorate and this polling sample), Trump is viewed negatively by 87!!!! percent.

Here's the whole memo from AIF's political guru:

Continue reading "87% of Florida Hispanics view Donald Trump negatively, poll says" »

Poll: Donald Trump would drive Miami Cubans away from GOP

@PatriciaMazzei 

Donald Trump is the catalyst who could force a decisive break between Miami-Dade County’s influential Cuban-American voters and the Republican Party, a new poll has found.

Local Cuban Americans dislike Trump so much — and are increasingly so accepting of renewed U.S.-Cuba ties pushed by Democratic President Barack Obama — that Trump’slikely presidential nomination might accentuate the voters’ political shift away from the GOP, according to the survey shared with the Miami Herald and conducted by Dario Moreno, a Coral Gables pollster and a Florida International University associate politics professor.

Thirty-seven percent of respondents supported Trump, a number that is still higher than the 31 percent who backed Clinton — but also “the lowest in history that any potential Republican candidate polls among this traditionally loyal demographic,” according to Moreno. He added that the results put likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton within “striking distance” of winning over the influential voting demographic. Trump won the March 15 Florida GOP primary in a rout.

“We’ve been seeing demographic changes in this community since 2004,” Moreno said, as younger voters of Cuban descent, and recent Cuban immigrants, have increasingly identified as Democrats or independents. “With Trump, the real danger is that he’s going to accelerate this realignment in Miami.”

Moreno is a Republican who has polled for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, though this poll was not conducted on either politician's behalf.

The pollster acknowledged his own bias against the Republican presidential front-runner: “I can’t vote for Trump,” Moreno said. “I’m not going to vote for Hillary, but I’m not going to vote for Trump.”

More here.

April 22, 2016

Hillary Clinton would trounce GOP among Florida Hispanics, poll says

via @learyreports

Hillary Clinton would easily win Florida’s growing Hispanic vote over Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, polling released Friday shows.

The America’s Voice poll shows Clinton taking 69 percent of the vote to Trump’s 18 percent.

Against Cruz, Clinton takes 58 percent of the vote compared with the Texan’s 36 percent.

Sixty-eight percent of Florida Hispanic voters say Trump’s immigration views make them less likely to vote Republican in November. That’s 10 percent lower than nationally, reflecting a strong Florida GOP base.

When asked about Trump’s pledge to deport illegal immigrants, 65 percent Florida Hispanics said that makes them much less likely to vote for Trump, again lower than the 80 percent nationally.

Florida Hispanics say immigration reform is a top concern, closely followed by jobs and the economy. Education and Health care follow.

America's Voice advocates for immigration reform and its pollsters are aligned with Clinton.

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

March 14, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Donald Trump ahead of Marco Rubio 46-22% in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio by a 2-1 margin -- 46-22 percent -- in Quinnipiac University's final poll ahead of Tuesday's Florida primary. They're followed by Ted Cruz with 14 percent and John Kasich with 10 percent.

The results are almost identical to Quinnipiac's survey last week, which had Trump ahead 45-22 percent.

"At least when it comes to this presidential primary, Florida might change its nickname from Sunshine State to Landslide State," Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement Monday. "Sen. Marco Rubio, who has staked his future on wining his home state, looks like he'll soon be toast. He trails GOP leader Donald Trump by more than 20 points with polling through Sunday night.

"There are very few examples of candidates making up that much ground in 24 hours."

The gap between Trump and Rubio has varied widely in recent surveys, though all show Rubio trailing -- in some cases by as little as 5 or 6 percentage points, and in others by more than 20 points, depending on the date and methodology. Quinnipiac polled 615 self-identified likely GOP voters Sunday; its survey has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

On the Democratic side in Florida, Hillary Clinton is way ahead of Bernie Sanders, by 60-34 percent with an error margin of 4.3 points.

March 13, 2016

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Ted Cruz catches up to still-trailing Marco Rubio in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Bad news for Marco Rubio two days before Florida's primary election: He's way behind Donald Trump in home state -- and now Ted Cruz is essentially tied with the Florida senator for second place.

Trump leads with 43 percent, followed by Rubio with 22 percent and Cruz with 21 percent, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist University poll released Sunday. John Kasich rounds out the field with 9 percent.

The survey of 511 likely GOP voters, conducted March 4-10, has an error margin of 4.3 percentage point.

It's the third poll in a day to find Rubio about 20 points behind Trump and in a statistical tie with Cruz, though each survey was conducted using a different methodology. We won't know until Tuesday's results are in which of those methods, if any -- or another that screens respondents based on their past voter history -- will prove to be most accurate.

A CBS/YouGov Internet poll also released Sunday had Trump at 44 percent, Cruz at 24 percent, Rubio at 21 percent and Kasich at 9 percent (error margin: 4.8 points). A Florida Atlantic University robo-poll released Saturday had Trump at 44 percent, Rubio and Cruz at 21 percent and Kasich at 9 percent (error margin: 3.3 points).

"Let me just tell you, on Wednesday morning, some pollsters somewhere are going to ahve to explain why they're so wrong -- not just about Florida, but multiple places," Rubio told ABC News' This Week Sunday morning.

In the Democratic race, the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll showed Hillary Clinton trouncing Bernie Sanders 61-34 percent, with an error margin of 4.4 percentage points.

This post has been updated.