Post water-swigging Pew poll: Marco Rubio upside down

From a Pew Research poll that also surveyed opinions about Chuck Hagel (nominated to be defense secretary) and Secretary of State John Kerry:

The survey also finds that the public expresses mixed views of Marco Rubio, following his response to Obama’s State of the Union address. Overall, 26% view Rubio favorably, 29% unfavorably, and 46% cannot offer a rating.

Rubio has a strong image among Republicans and receives particularly high ratings among those who agree with the Tea Party.

Among all Republicans (and Republican leaners) who agree with the Tea Party, fully 70% view Rubio favorably compared with just 7% who view him unfavorably. Among Republicans and leaners who do not agree with the Tea Party, 31% view Rubio favorably and 25% view him unfavorably.

Although it's dangerous to mix-and-match polls, what's interesting here is that Rubio's numbers are rather different from a (pre-SOTUr) survey earlier this month by Quinnipiac University, which found Rubio more popular (27%) than unpopular (15%). Was it the water-swigging by Rubio? The substance of his speech? Or are the polls too different to divine any meaning?

Q Poll's beauty-show survey: ugly for GOP, ok for Rubio, blah for Obama, great for Hillary

Quinnipiac's latest national survey is what's known as a beauty contest; 2016 is a long way off. But who's hot and not?

President Obama is losing points; with 46 percent approving of his job performance while 45 percent disapprove. That's a big change from his December 53-40 rating.

But the poll is downright ugly for the GOP.

Except for Sen. Marco Rubio, every one of the big-name Republican figures polled (including former FL Gov. Jeb Bush) is viewed negatively. About 27 percent view Rubio favorably while 15 percent view him unfavorably. That means Rubio's favorability index is 12. Bush is -4. Paul Ryan: -2 (an inside-the-error-margin amount).

But a full 57 percent don't know enough about Rubio. Expect that to change as 2016 draws nigh (and, yeah to call it early is an understatement).

Rubio gives the GOP State of the Union rebuttal on Tuesday. Republicans (and Time magazine) view him as their savior when it comes to immigration in the short-term and, perhaps, Hispanic voters in the long term.

Democrats won't t just sit by. They're going to start trashing him (just watch MSNBC).

Republicans are trying to negatively define former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, who was in office during the 9/11/12 Benghazi attacks in Libya and the rise of militant Islam in North Africa.

So far, the GOP attack machine hasn't worked; 61 percent viewing her favorably and 34 percent unfavorably. The 27 favorability index is the highest in the poll. The others in the black are all Democrats: Clinton's successor, John Kerry (at 10) and VIce President Joe Biden at 5.

poll here

Pre-Benghazi hearing poll: Hillary Clinton could beat Rubio, Jeb in FL

Missed this last week from Democratically aligned Public Policy Polling, but since Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton had a brief exchange at today's Senate hearing over Benghazi (igniting reporter speculation about 2016), here it is:

Hillary Clinton could beat Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush on their home turf in a presidential contest, according to PPP’s latest poll.

In a hypothetical 2016 match-up, Clinton leads Rubio by 4 points, 50% to 46%, and she beats Bush by 5 points, 49% to 44%. Both of these modest leads are within the poll’s margin of error. The main reason Clinton leads both candidates is her strong appeal among moderates, who favor her 63% to 29% over Bush and 63% to 32% over Rubio.

PPP: Rick Scott would get killed by Charlie Crist, could lose to Alex Sink, Pam Iorio, Debbie Wasserman Schultz

From Public Policy Polling, which typically surveys for Democrats and liberals. Note: It looks like it didn't poll a Charlie Crist-Alex Sink Democratic match-up:

Raleigh, N.C. – While Floridians might not be familiar with some of the potential Democratic candidates running against Governor Rick Scott for the Governor race in 2014, poll numbers show that they are not happy with Scott’s job performance.

Florida voter approval of Rick Scott’s job performance is 33% with 57% disapproving.

When asked about the favorability of newly turned Democrat Charlie Crist, the former Republican Governor of Florida, voters have a 49% favorable opinion while 38% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Among Republican primary voters, Governor Rick Scott has a 56% approval rating and 32% disapproval rating. When pitted against Republican Pam Bondi for Governor in 2014, Rick Scott leads (49-25). If challenging Republican Allen West, Rick Scott trails (37-38).

Obama "picking the Republican lock" in Florida by getting big Cuban and even bigger P.R. support

President Obama nearly won the solidly Republican Cuban-American vote in Florida and rolled up huge margins with every other Hispanic group, according to an exit poll performed by a firm that also worked for his campaign.

Obama actually won Cuban-Americans on Election Day itself, taking 53 percent of their vote compared to 47 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, who built up a lead among those who cast absentee and early in-person ballots, according to the survey of 4,866 voters conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International.

So Romney narrowly carried Cuban-Americans, 52-48 percent, which is a decrease for Republicans when compared to 2008.

"Obama is picking the Republican lock in Florida," Fernand Amandi said, noting that Hispanics are Florida's fastest-growing segment of the electorate.

But some conservatives doubt the numbers, accusing the firm of under-sampling Republican precincts, which Bendixen & Amandi denies.

"Like every election cycle, Sergio Bendixen, who is infamously known for the inacuracy of his polls, is once again peddling inaccurate exit polling data about Cuban-American voting trends," Mauricio Claver-Carone, executive director of Cuba Democracy Advocates, wrote on his Capitol Hill Cubans blog.

But Bendixen points out that his bottom-line exit poll numbers mirror the figures from the exit polls conducted by Edison Reserch for the news media, including the Miami Herald, which found Obama winning the overall Hispanic vote 60-39 over Romney.

In Bendixen's poll, Florida Hispanics broke 61-39 percent in Obama's favor -- a one-point difference from Edison. Edison's poll indicated Obama may have won the Cuban-American vote, 49-47 percent, but the results were well within the survey's error margin.

Jim Messina, Obama campaign manager, highlighted the Edison results and pointed out that, in its surveys, the share of the Hispanic vote increased in the state from 14 percent to 17 percent from 2008 to 2012.

"We won a majority of Cuban voters in Florida," said Messina. "It's a dramatic realignment for cuban voters in that state."

Why The Miami Herald's pre-election poll was so far off.

Pre-Election Day polls in Florida predicting Mitt Romney would comfortably win the state’s 29 electoral votes were quite wrong, it turns out.

Though some absentee ballots are still being counted, Romney is narrowly trailing President Barack Obama.

Last week, a survey conducted for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9, Miami Herald and two other media partners showed Florida almost deep red — with Romney winning 51-45.

Three weeks before that, the same polling firm, Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, had Romney ahead 51-44.

A poll conducted for the Florida Times-Union the Sunday before Election Day called it Romney 52, Obama 47.

Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said the shift was not caused by polling error, but because Obama moved the needle with his handling of Hurricane Sandy.

Stats guru: Obama has 52% chance of winning FL, Romney 48%

The computer model of the New York Times statistics guru, Nate Silver of the Five Thirty Eight blog, indicates President Obama has a 52 percent chance of winning Florida, without which Mitt Romney can't win the presidency.

Basically, it's a coin toss election. And already, up to half of the vote is in. More here on that.

 

Pick your FL poll. Insider/Advantage: Romney up 5. PPP: Obama up 1

More polls on the presidential race in Florida were released today. And, again, we got more differing results:

From The Times Union's Insider/Advantage Poll:

Mitt Romney’s lead with independent voters has propelled him to a 5-point lead in Florida two days before election day, according to a Times-Union/InsiderAdvantage poll released Sunday night.

Likely/registered voters favored Romney 52 percent to 47 percent for Barack Obama, but Romney holds a 25-point lead with independent voters.

“Romney’s lead is made possible by the substantial advantage he enjoys among those who identify themselves as independent voters,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery. “Independent voters have been the determining factor in Florida political contests for many years.”

From Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats:

PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year. In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday.

PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice. There is a massive generational gap in the state with Romney leading 61/38 among seniors while Obama leads within every other age group. The Paul Ryan selection didn't hurt Romney with Florida seniors as some had thought it might. Obama's up 52/47 with women, 53/47 with Hispanics, and 91/9 with African Americans while Romney has a 53/47 edge with men and a 59/40 one with white voters.

The swing voters of the swing state. What do independents think?

They are the swing voters of the ultimate swing state.

Florida’s independent voters are either too conservative for the Republican Party, too liberal for the Democrats — or too, well, independent for either. They are all over the political map — an apt reflection of Florida, a state with a little bit of everywhere else.

But ultimately, they’ll cast the deciding votes that guarantee President Barack Obama a second term or help Mitt Romney unseat him.

Public-opinion surveys have swung left and right with the mood of independents. But they’re starting to settle on Romney.

A Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times survey found Romney winning 49-43 among independents.

An unscientific Miami Herald email survey of 2,051 registered no-party-affiliation voters who cast absentee ballots found they favored Obama 51-44 percent.

NBC FL poll: Obama 49- Romney 47

From NBC, whose poll looks rather different from a Miami Herald poll showing a 6-point Mitt Romney lead:

In the Sunshine State, 63 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day, and Obama is winning them, 53 percent to 46 percent. But Romney is ahead among Election Day voters in Florida, 52 percent to 40 percent.

In Ohio, 35 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so, and Obama is leading them, 62 percent to 36 percent. Yet Romney is up among Election Day voters in the Buckeye State, 52 percent to 42 percent.

Strong approval for the president’s handling of Sandy The polls were conducted after Hurricane Sandy slammed into the East Coast, and seven in 10 likely voters in Florida and Ohio approve of the president’s job in handling the hurricane and its aftermath.

“The response was overwhelmingly positive, and that was occurring across party lines,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

On handling the economy Meanwhile, Romney has a slight advantage over Obama in Florida when it comes to which candidate would better handle the economy – 48 percent pick Romney and 46 percent back Obama.