September 14, 2016

FIU poll: Most Miami-Dade Cubans favor new U.S.-Cuba policy

Cuba plane
@PatriciaMazzei

In the 18 months since President Barack Obama announced a new U.S.-Cuba policy, his views have won bigger support among his most skeptic audience: Miami-Dade County Cuban Americans.

A new Florida International University poll shows a majority of local Cuban Americans — 56 percent — “strongly” or “mostly” favors reengagement with the island.

The results are from FIU’s first Cuba poll since Dec. 17, 2014, the date when Obama said he would reestablish diplomatic relations with Cuba, and March 2016, when Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit Cuba in more than eight decades. Prior surveys, which the university began conducting in 1991, had a trend of increasing public support for normalizing Cuba relations. The latest data suggest Obama’s policy has pushed that trend even further.

“It’s given kind of a space for that kind of attitude — out of frustration, out of hope, out of something — where it can be expressed more,” said Guillermo Grenier, one of the professors who conducted the survey of 1,000 respondents for the university’s Cuban Research Institute.

For the first time in the poll’s history, a clear majority of respondents — 54 percent — also wants to end the Cuban embargo, compared to 32 percent who want to keep it (14 percent don’t know or wouldn’t say). The last time FIU conducted the poll, in 2014, respondents were against the embargo by 45-41 percent, with 12 percent in the don’t-know/wouldn’t-answer category.

Asked if the embargo was successful, 55 percent said it wasn’t “at all.” Only 17 percent said it worked well or very well, with 19 percent saying it had worked “not very well.”

This being a presidential election year, the pollsters also tried to gauge the popularity of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump among local Cubans. They favored Trump by 36-31 percent, though that number is somewhat stale because the survey was conducted from July 11-Aug. 12.

More here.

Photo credit: Al Diaz, Miami Herald staff

September 13, 2016

Poll: Clinton leads Trump among Florida Hispanics but has yet to hit Obama mark

0422 HILLARY CLINTON 072416 ADD
@PatriciaMazzei

Florida Hispanic voters strongly favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, according to a new poll, but she has yet to reach the level of support among Latinos that helped President Barack Obama win the battleground state — and reelection — four years ago.

The poll by Miami-based Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group shows Clinton drawing 53 percent among Florida Hispanics, compared to Trump’s 29 percent. That’s a significant 24-point lead. But Obama hit 60 percent among Latinos in 2012, according to exit polls. He defeated Mitt Romney in Florida by a single percentage point.

“She should not only be where Obama is — she should be beating those numbers, and she’s not,” pollster Fernand Amandi told the Miami Herald. He conducted the survey for Univision and The Washington Post.

Trump is more disliked than Romney, who ended up with 39 percent of Hispanic support. Clinton has yet to fully capitalize on that unpopularity — perhaps because 46 percent of poll respondents consider the former secretary of state a “liar.”

Two third-party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, received 6 percent and 2 percent support in the poll, respectively.

The pollsters conducted interviews in English and Spanish of 400 Hispanic registered voters in Florida from Aug. 24-Sept. 3. The survey’s error margin is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Clinton is also underperforming compared to Obama in three other heavily Hispanic swing states polled: Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

More here.

Photo credit: Al Diaz, Miami Herald staff

September 09, 2016

Poll: Trump less popular among Florida Hispanics than Romney

via @learyreports

Hillary Clinton has huge lead on Donald Trump among Florida’s Hispanic voters, a poll released Friday shows, the Democrat taking 62 percent of the vote and the Republican 27 percent.

That puts Trump below the 39 percent Mitt Romney drew in 2012.

The poll from America’s Voice, an immigrant advocacy group, was conducted by Latino Decisions and matches other surveys indicating a wide lead for Clinton. The overall percentage is made up of people who said they were certain, not certain or leaned one way for a candidate.

The Hispanic community also views Trump significantly more negatively than Clinton, with the Republican netting a 28 percent approval and Clinton 60 percent.

Asked if Trump has made the GOP more welcoming to Latinos or more hostile or had no effect, 61 percent said more hostile, 12 percent said more welcoming and 16 percent said he had no effect.

Continue reading "Poll: Trump less popular among Florida Hispanics than Romney" »

September 08, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Trump, Clinton tied at 47% in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Florida's presidential race remains as tight as ever, according to a new poll that shows Republican Donald Trump tied with Democrat Hillary Clinton in the nation's largest swing state.

Clinton and Trump are tied at 47 percent in a head-to-head match-up, a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found. They're tied at 43 percent in a four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson, who drew 8 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who drew 2 percent.

Clinton leads Trump by 20 percentage points, 56-36 percent, among women. Trump leads Clinton by 22 percentage points, 58-36 percent, among men. He holds a 48-39 percent lead among independent voters. Non-white voters favor Clinton by 67-25 percent.

"To understand the racial divide in the electorate, consider the sharp contrast between white men and non-white voters in Florida," Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement. "Trump is getting just 25 percent from minority voters, while Clinton gets just 26 percent of white men."

Quinnipiac surveyed voters in four other swing states and found Ohio also too close to call. Clinton edges Trump, but not by much, in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Last month, Quinnipiac also found Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in Florida, 46-45 percent.

"The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from his post-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio," Brown said Thursday. "Taking a bit longer view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOP convention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs."

In Florida, Quinnipiac polled 761 likely voters from Aug. 29-Sept. 7. The state poll has an error margin of 3.6 percentage points.

September 06, 2016

Democratic poll shows virtual tie between Rubio, Murphy in Florida Senate race

via @learyreports

Democrats today released a poll showing Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy in a virtual tie and argue that Murphy has room to become better known to voters across Florida.

The poll conducted for Senate Majority PAC, which is supporting Murphy, shows Murphy with 45 percent of the vote to Rubio’s 44 percent and 9 percent of voters undecided.

The Real Clear Politics average, which does not include this poll, has Rubio leading by 5.7 percentage points.

Civis surveyed 1,463 people by landline and cell phone from Aug. 9-15. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

“There is substantial opportunity to grow Murphy’s vote share with groups where we expect support to coalesce after the primary and as voters become more familiar with the candidates nearing Election Day. We suspect that there is not yet Democratic consolidation due to this survey being conducted before the primary,” reads a polling memo prepared by Civis Analytics.

It said Rubio’s favorability had declined 9 points since he announced he would run for re-election.

“Rubio is already a well-known candidate in the state and is likely at his ceiling. In contrast, Murphy has room to grow among several Democratic leaning groups that should be responsive to communications. He is well positioned to win this seat in the fall.”

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

August 29, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Voters unimpressed by Florida's Zika response

@PatriciaMazzei

Only 29 percent of Southeast Florida voters think the state's response to the Zika virus outbreak has been "excellent" or "good," according to a new poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Statewide, 37 percent of poll respondents rated Florida's Zika control as "fair." Twenty-two percent rated it poor.

In Miami-Dade County, the center of the Zika outbreak, local authorities have complained about the state's handling of the crisis.

Asked their level of concern about contracting the virus, 48 percent of poll respondents declared themselves "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned." Concern was higher among women than men and among South Florida residents than North Florida residents. Older people said they were more worried about Zika than younger people, even though the virus is a particular risk to pregnant women.

Mason-Dixon polled 625 registered voters from Aug. 22-24. The poll's error margin is 4 percentage points.

August 26, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Clinton 44%, Trump 42% in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Florida's presidential race is quite close, according to a new poll, with Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by only 2 percentage points.

Clinton's 44-42 percent advantage over Trump is within the 4-percentage-point error margin of the survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Libertarian Gary Johnson received 6 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2 percent.

The survey shows Trump is less liked that Clinton. Thirty-five percent of respondents viewed her favorably while 45 percent viewed her unfavorably. For Trump, those numbers were 29 percent and 52 percent, respectively.

Clinton leads among Democrats, women, African-Americans and Hispanics. Trump is favored among Republicans, independents, men and non-Hispanic whites. 

Florida's swing I-4 corridor is essentially tied. Trump is ahead in North and Southwest Florida, and Clinton in Southeast Florida.

Mason-Dixon polled 625 registered voters by phone from Aug. 22-24.

August 25, 2016

Mason-Dixon poll: Rubio 46%, Murphy 43%

@PatriciaMazzei

Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Patrick Murphy might cruise to primary victories in Florida's U.S. Senate race Tuesday, a new poll suggests, but they will be locked in a much tighter contest for the November general election.

The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey shows Rubio, the incumbent senator, romping primary challenger Carlos Beruff by 61-22 percent. Murphy, a Jupiter congressman, leads Orlando Rep. Alan Grayson by a commanding 55-22 percent.

But in a general-election match-up, Rubio is ahead of Murphy by 46-43 percent -- a virtual tie, given the poll's error margin of 4 percentage points. Rubio leads among Republicans, independents, men, whites and Hispanics. Murphy is ahead among Democrats, women and African-Americans.

Mason-Dixon polled 625 registered voters by phone from Aug. 22-24. The error margin for the primary numbers -- obtained by oversampling 400 likely Democratic voters and 400 likely Republican voters -- is 5 percentage points.

August 16, 2016

Monmouth poll: Clinton, Rubio ahead in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Hillary Clinton holds a 9-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, according to a new poll by Monmouth University, which also found Marco Rubio ahead of his two chief rivals for U.S. Senate.

Clinton drew 48 percent support in the poll, compared to Trump's 39 percent. Six percent went to Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 1 percent to Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Clinton's advantage comes from her backing from Hispanic, black and Asian voters, who favor her over Trump by 65-19 percent. She also bests Trump among white women, by 49-39 percent, though he leads among white voters overall, including both college and non-college graduates. She's got stronger support among Democrats (92 percent) than Trump does among Republicans (79 percent). Independent voters are also leaning toward Clinton, by 47-30 percent. 

Most voters still view Clinton and Trump very unfavorably.

"The gender split among white voters in Florida is huge," Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. "Men are drawn to Trump's message while women are not. These offsetting factors give Clinton the edge."

In the Senate race, incumbent Rubio leads U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Jupiter by 48-43 percent and U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson of Orlando by 50-39 percent. Murphy and Grayson are running in the Aug. 30 Democratic primary.

Among poll respondents, 53 percent said they thought Rubio chose to run for re-election to improve his chances to seek the presidency again. Sixty-three percent were unaware Rubio had backed Trump; most respondents didn't care but about 25 percent said the endorsement would make them less likely to vote for Rubio for Senate.

"Rubio's endorsement of Trump could come back to bite him if more voters actually learn about it," Murray said. "It remains to be seen whether the eventual Democratic nominee can turn this to his advantage in the general election campaign."

The telephone poll of 402 likely voters was conducted from Aug. 12-15. It has an error margin if 4.9 percentage points.

August 04, 2016

Suffolk poll: Clinton leads Trump 48%-42% in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Hillary Clinton holds a 6-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, according to a new Suffolk University poll.

Clinton leads Trump 48-42 percent in a head-to-head match-up, the poll shows. Clinton still leads in a four-way poll with 43 percent, followed by Trump's 39 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson's 4 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein's 3 percent.

South Florida is the Democratic nominee's stronghold: Clinton's got a 24-percentage-point advantage over Trump (57-33 percent) in that region. The Republican nominee fared much better in North Florida, where he campaigned Wednesday: Trump is ahead of Clinton there by 54-39 percent.

"Hillary Clinton is leading thanks to southern Florida and women," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, said in a statement. "Trump is even seeing some Republicans holding back at this point while Clinton is a bit stronger among registered Democrats."

Suffolk surveyed 500 likely voters between Aug. 1-3. The poll's error margin is plus-or-minus 4.4 percentage points.