Miami Herald FL Poll: Romney 51%-Obama 45%

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

Miami Herald FL Poll: Romney 51%-Obama 45%

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

2.7m Floridians have voted (30%?). Dems stretch early ballot lead to nearly 49,000 over Republicans

The early vote and absentee ballot data (EV/AB) is in, and it shows that Democrats on the fourth day of voting in-person voting extended their lead over total Republican ballots cast by about 48,600**.

In all, Democrats edged Republicans by 118,000 early vote ballots, but Republicans extended their absentee-vote lead to more than 69,000.

Nearly 2.7 million ballots have been cast out of a total 12 million registered voters, 75 percent of whom will probably vote. That means about 30 percent of the ballots are already in.

There's a dispute between the Republican and Democratic parties about what the numbers all mean. Republicans claim Democrats in 2008 were up by a total of 134,000 ballots at this time (four days into early voting). That number does seem high, and the Democrats say it's not true and that Republicans are playing fast and loose with the numbers.

It is true that total early voting is down by Dems from 134,000 to about 118,00 four days in. But that's not the net EVAB number. That's just early voting. And one of the reasons for the decline is that Democrats have shifted some of their early voters in 08 to being absentee-ballot voters in 2012. And Democrats have closed the big AB gap with the GOP by about two thirds since 08.

President Obama, however, clearly has a problem in the polls. They show him winning the early vote, however he's losing independents. About 450,000 have already cast ballots and they account for about 20 percent of the electorate.

Either way, Democrats are still up. A lead is a lead. But can they keep it through Election Day?

The totals for EV

Party	EV total	%
Dem	517,909	47%
Rep	399,687	36%
Ind	182,016	17%
Total	1,099,612

For AB

Party	AB total	%
Rep	686,671	44%
Dem	617,053	39%
Ind	264,691	17%
Total	1,568,415

Cumulative:

Party	Total	%
Dem	1,134,962	43%
Rep	1,086,358	41%
Ind	446,707	17%
Total	2,668,027

Note: The numbers might be slightly different later in the day when updates are posted. Lafayette County didn't post its data this morning

Mellman/Dem poll: Obama 49, Romney 47 in Florida

Polls are all over the map. RealClearPolics average puts it at Romney + 1.3 pecent n F. Pollster.com average has Fla 48-48. The latest from Democrats' Mellman group:

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of the likely November 2012 Florida electorate using a registration-based sample including cellphones and landlines. Eight hundred (800 interviews were conducted in English and Spanish October 24-27. The margin of error for the whole sample is +/-3.4% at a 95% level of confidence and higher for subgroups depending upon size.

Our latest poll shows President Obama gaining momentum in Florida and now leading Mitt Romney 49% to 47%, with the pool of undecided voters shrinking to just 4%. Among the 29% who have already cast their ballot, the President received the support of over half—topping Romney 51% to 47%. Last week the President was tied with his challenger.

Q Poll: Obama 48, Romney 47 in Florida.

From Quinnipiac University (whose survey came under instant fire from Republicans saying it oversampled Democrats. More here on that refrain):

Increased support from women likely voters helps Gov. Mitt Romney narrow the gap with President Barack Obama in Florida and Virginia, leaving these key swing states too close to call, while the president holds a 5-point lead in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State poll released today.

By wide margins, voters in each state say President Obama cares about their needs and problems more than Gov. Romney, but the Republican is seen as a leader by more voters. 

On who is better able to fix the economy, 49 percent of Florida voters pick Romney, with 47 percent for Obama; 49 percent of Ohio voters pick Obama, with 48 percent for Romney, and 50 percent of Virginia voters pick Romney, with 46 percent for Obama.

The Obama-Romney overall matchup in each of these states shows:

•    Florida: Obama at 48 percent to Romney’s 47 percent, compared to Obama up        53 – 44 percent September 26;

•    Ohio: Obama up 50 – 45 percent, unchanged from October 22;

•    Virginia: Obama at 49 percent to Romney’s 47 percent, compared to Obama up
      51 – 46 percent October 11.

“After being subjected to what seems like a zillion dollars’ worth of television ads and personal attention from the two candidates reminiscent of a high-school crush, the key swing states of Florida and Virginia are too close to call with the election only days away,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “President Barack Obama clings to a 5-point lead in Ohio, but Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed the president’s lead that existed in Florida and Virginia before the first debate.”

The Cuban Conundrum and FIU's FL poll: Obama 51-Romney 47 among Hispanics.

Call it the Cuban Conundrum — a problem for pollsters who find Florida Hispanics are far more Republican than anywhere else in the nation.

It’s on full display in the latest Florida International University/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely Hispanic Florida voters showing President Barack Obama clings to a narrow 51-47 percent lead over Republican Mitt Romney.

But nationwide, the poll shows, Obama leads by a far bigger margin among likely Hispanic voters.

The difference in Florida: Cuban voters. Without them, the FIU poll shows, Obama would handily win likely Florida Hispanic voters 65-32 percent.

Not only are Cubans reliable Republican voters — they’re about 70 percent of Miami-Dade’s registered Republicans — but they’re also more likely to answer surveys like the FIU poll.

“Cuban-American voters pick up the phone and answer. They want to be heard,” said Eduardo Gamarra, an FIU professor of Latin American studies who conducted the poll with his political research firm, the Newlink Group.

Is Obama's FL camp too confident about Hispanic numbers?

CNN today reported that President Obama's Florida team believes there's a direct correlation between Hispanic voter turnout and the campaign's chances in Florida:

"If President Barack Obama wins Florida, it will be thanks to an increase in Hispanic voters, according to leaders of the president's campaign in the state," CNN said.

"One week before Election Day and three days into early voting in the ever important battleground, Obama's Sunshine State director Ashley Walker told reporters during a pen and pad briefing that early turnout among Hispanics is up 50% from 2008 due to an increase in registration and enthusiasm in the community."

Here's what wasn't apparently mentioned: Obama's Hispanic numbers don't appear to be that rosy in Florida.

Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats, found that Obama was actually losing the Florida Hispanic vote 46-54 to Republican Mitt Romney. But it doesn't poll in Spanish, and the sample size was small. Two Mason-Dixon polls this weekend had mixed news for Obama. It showed him up 56-37 percent in the crucial I-4 corridor, but he was down 19-76 percent among Cuban voters in Miami-Dade. And they're amped to vote, casting about 44 percent of the 134,000 absentee ballots that have been mailed in so far.

Then there's SurveyUSA, which doesn't poll in Spanish like PPP, that showed Obama up over Romney among Hispanics in Florida, 58-32.

If the numbers are all over the place, there's a reason for it: The Florida Hispanic vote is not monolithic. Survey in one area (like Cuban-heavy South Florida or Puerto Rican-heavy Central Florida) and your poll can move right or left.

And the voter-registration data isn't so helpful, either.

Hispanics prefer the “no party affiliation” label to being Democrats or Republicans. Since 2008, the Hispanic voter rolls have grown 22 percent overall to 1.7 million, about 14 percent of the electorate. Hispanic no-party affiliation growth: 38 percent. Democratic growth: 22 percent. Republican growth: 7 percent.

So Hispanics prefer right now to be independents. And the polls almost universally agree: Romney's narrowly winning independents right now.

But polls are polls. And ground game is ground game. The best campaign will get its voters out. And it'll win, despite what the polls say.

SurveyUSA FL poll: Obama-Romney tied at 47%; Obama up with early vote, Romney up with Nov. 6 voters

We've been posting early and absentee-vote data (Democrats have a lead in ballots cast), and this poll is among the first that examines how those folks might vote. From SurveyUSA:

8 days until votes are counted in the election for President, the 5% of Florida voters who today are undecided will determine whether Mitt Romney or Barack Obama get the state’s critical 29 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Among Florida voters who have made up their minds, including a large number who have already returned a ballot, the contest is 47% Romney, 47% Obama.

Romney starts off 15 points in the hole: Obama leads 57% to 42% among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. But Romney leads by 13 points among the larger group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election Day. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, the candidates finish exactly even.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 11 days ago, which was conducted before the 3rd and final Presidential Debate, Romney is today up a nominal 1 point, Obama is flat. Today, Obama leads by 19 points in Southeast FL, but Romney leads in every other region of the state. Obama leads by 4 points among women, Romney leads by 5 points among men. Independents break 45% to 40% for Romney. Moderates break 51% to 41% for Obama. Romney leads among Florida’s white voters, is tied among Florida’s Cubans, and trails Obama among Florida’s other minority groups.

Romney leads by 18 points among seniors, who are the most reliable voters. This gives Romney an advantage heading into the final week of campaigning. If younger voters do not turn out in the numbers shown here, Obama will under-perform this poll.

More here

CNN/ORC FL likely voter poll: Romney 50%, Obama 49%. (But Obama wins just registered voters)

CNN's latest ORC Florida poll is a lot like it's last one showing Mitt Romney beating President Obama by 1 point, inside the poll's error margin, among likely voters. The poll simultaneously backs up both campaigns' statements about the race.

On one hand, it shows Romney is winning, albeit marginally. On the other, the broader poll of just registered voters (those who don't describe themselves as likely to vote) shows Obama beating Romney 52-46. The Obama folks have complained the "screens" of these likely voter polls is stripping out its voters and, it says, it's turning out sporadic voters. The Romney folks say that's spin.

We'll see on Nov. 6. Or maybe the 7th, if there's a too-close-to-call election night.

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FL Dems beat GOP by 73,000 early votes by Monday, wipes out GOP absentee-vote lead. But....

In the first two days of in-person early voting, Florida Democrats wiped away a lead that Florida Republicans had run up thanks to the GOP's strong absentee-ballot program. In all, about 1.9 million ballots have been cast (about 16 percent of the 11.9 million voters)

As of this morning, Democrats cast a total of 73,000 more early in person ballots than Republicans, who had cast about 63,000 more absentee ballots, typically cast by mail. So it looks like a 10,000-vote edge for Democrats.

But it's probably smaller than that.

The Monday absentee ballot numbers aren't really updated because no mail is delivered Sunday. By averaging the daily percentage increases of the GOP absentee-vote lead, the total Democratic advantage could be as low as 2,000. Of course, it could be higher. This is just a projection.