March 10, 2016

Florida poll: Marco Rubio should leave presidential race if he loses home state

@PatriciaMazzei

Florida Republicans agree Marco Rubio must win his home state to remain in the presidential race.

Fifty-nine percent think Rubio should drop out if he loses Tuesday's primary, according to a new Washington Post-Univision poll conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International and the Tarrance Group.

Like other polls released over the past two days, the survey found Rubio lagging behind Donald Trump, 38-31 percent, followed by Ted Cruz (19 percent) and John Kasich (4 percent). The poll of 450 likely Republican voters was conducted in English and Spanish from March 2-5 and has an error margin of 4.6 percentage points.

Rubio fares much better than Trump among Hispanics, the poll found. Compared to Rubio and Cruz, Trump is the only candidate Hispanic Republicans in Florida view more unfavorably (59 percent) than favorably (36 percent). And if were up to Hispanics alone, Rubio would be leading the race with 49 percent support, followed by Cruz with 21 percent and Trump with 19 percent. The Florida senator's support is rooted with Cuban-Americans, according to the poll, which has a larger error margin -- 7.6 percentage points -- for the smaller Hispanic sample.

March 09, 2016

Associated Industries of Florida poll: ‘Surge’ voters likely benefiting Donald Trump in race against Marco Rubio

@PatriciaMazzei

Donald Trump holds a 33-27 percent lead over Marco Rubio in Florida, according to an Associated Industries of Florida poll, but the gap between the two Republican presidential candidates may be wider.

Ryan Tyson, AIF’s political guru, found that the primary is attracting new voters – ones who haven’t cast ballots in prior GOP elections and may be missed by surveys that identify Republicans based on their voter history. Those polls have generally shown a tighter Trump-Rubio race than the ones that allow respondents to self-identify as Republicans, capturing independents and Democrats prohibited from participating in Florida’s closed primary.

Of the 772,000 Republicans who have already voted, 17 percent are new voters, Tyson found. And that likely means Rubio trails Trump by more than the 6 percentage points captured in AIF’s poll, which was conducted by Tel Opinion Research.

“These voters missed the 2012 Presidential primary, and the regular 2012 & 2014 Republican primaries, but for whatever reason they are casting ballots in this election,” Tyson wrote in a memo outlining the poll results, which were first reported by Politico. “We can logically conclude these are similar surge voters as [we] have seen in other states this cycle. These voters will likely not be friendly to the establishment-favored candidates.”

Ted Cruz drew 16 percent support in the AIF poll, and John Kasich drew 12 percent.

The survey of 631 likely Republican voters was conducted Sunday and Monday, before Rubio came last in four more nominating contests. It was an error margin of 4 percentage points.

Florida poll: Donald Trump 42%, Marco Rubio 32%

@PatriciaMazzei

Another day, another Florida poll showing Marco Rubio still behind in the Republican presidential field.

Rubio trails Donald Trump 42-32 percent in a private poll conducted by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling for Miami political consultant Christian Ulvert. Far behind them are Ted Cruz with 14 percent and John Kasich with 8 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

The survey also shows Rubio narrowly behind Trump, 48-45 percent, in a potential one-on-one match-up -- an unrealistic scenario, given that Cruz and Kasich remain in the race, and Cruz campaigned in Florida Tuesday.

“It’s clear that Marco Rubio continues to struggle with gaining traction in his home state,” Ulvert said in a statement after he shared the poll results with the Miami Herald. “Marco Rubio has been an absent U.S. Senator and his shortcomings are coming home to roost. He says it’s all about Florida and whoever wins Florida will be the Republican nominee -- and with less than a week until Primary Election Day, all signs point to a Donald Trump nomination.”

Seventeen percent of respondents said they might change their mind before next Tuesday’s primary.

The survey, which has an error margin of 3.3 percentage points, was conducted March 7-8 and included 904 likely Republican voters, as identified through the Florida voter file showing their participating in past elections. Those polls have shown a tighter race than polls that ask voters to self-identify as Republicans. This survey, however, points to a widening gap between Trump and Rubio: He trailed by 5 percentage points in a poll conducted for Associated Industries of Florida last week and by 8 percentage points in a poll conducted by Monmouth University released week.

Quinnipiac poll: Donald Trump widens Florida lead over Marco Rubio

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio has lost ground to Donald Trump over the past two weeks in Florida, a new poll has found with less than a week left until Rubio's must-win home-state primary.

Trump bests Rubio 45-22 percent, according to the Quinnipiac University poll. That's a margin of 23 percentage points, 5 points higher than the 16-point lead in Quinnipiac's Feb. 25 poll (in that survey, Trump was ahead by 44-28 percent).

Rubio has lost a string of primaries and caucuses in other states, winning only Sunday in Puerto Rico. He's even fallen behind rival John Kasich in several instances. The Florida poll found Ted Cruz garnering 18 percent support, and Kasich 8 percent. The poll's error margin is 3.8 percentage points.

"The effort within the Republican Party to stop Donald Trump from winning the presidential nomination appears unlikely to stop him from taking Florida's delegate-rich winner-take-all primary," assistant poll director Peter A. Brown said in a statement. "In the Sunshine State, hometown hero Sen. Marco Rubio is 23 points behind Trump and isn't even doing much better than Sen. Ted. Cruz. Also discouraging for the anti-Trump folks is that Trump voters say they are less likely than those supporting any of the other candidates to change their mind in the closing days."

Nineteen percent of respondents said they might still change their candidate, and 6 percent remained undecided.

Quinnipiac surveyed 657 self-identified Republican voters from March 2-7. That methodology is likely to have caught independent voters who won't be allowed to vote in Florida's closed primary. Polls that have targeted Republicans based on voter lists showing their previous participation in elections have showed a smaller Trump lead.

CNN/ORC poll: Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio 40-24% in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio 40-24 percent in Florida, according to a new CNN/ORC poll. They lead Ted Cruz, who drew 19 percent, and John Kasich, who drew 5 percent.

Sixty-six percent of respondents said Rubio should drop out if he loses Florida.

The poll had a relatively small sample size -- only 313 Republican respondents -- and an error margin of 5.5 percentage points. CNN's story on the poll doesn't outline its methodology, but it seems likely -- given the poll's wide margin -- that ORC relies on self-identified Republican voters, a method that tends to include independents who cannot vote in Florida's close primary.

 

March 07, 2016

Monmouth poll: Donald Trump still leads Marco Rubio in Florida, by single digits

@PatriciaMazzei

A week and a day from Florida’s all-important Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump still holds a lead over Marco Rubio, according to a new poll.

Monmouth University found Trump ahead of Rubio by 38-30 percent – a single-digit gap like the one found by other recent surveys conducted with a similar method. But there’s a new sign of trouble for Rubio in the survey: He’s quickly losing support among voters who have yet to cast ballots.

Rubio amassed a 19 percent lead over Trump among respondents who had already voted, putting him ahead 48-23 percent. But Trump leads Rubio 42-26 percent among those yet to vote. About a fifth of all expected GOP voters have cast ballots already.

“Rubio is within shooting distance in his home state with a week to go in this volatile nomination contest,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. “It is telling, though, that Rubio is not even the clear victor in a direct face off with Trump. There goes the argument that Rubio would triumph if only it were a two person race.”

In a hypothetical one-on-one match-up, Trump bests Rubio 47-45 percent. The poll’s error margin is 4.9 percentage points.

The two candidates’ support is also split by geography, according to the poll. Rubio leads Trump 41-30 percent in South Florida, while Trump is ahead of him 44-22 percent in Central Florida. Trump is narrowly ahead of Rubio 36-32 percent in North Florida; Rubio campaigned Saturday in Jacksonville and will hold a rally Tuesday in Ponte Vedra Beach.

Rounding out the Florida field were Ted Cruz, who drew 17 percent support, and John Kasich, with 10 percent.

Monmouth surveyed 403 likely Republican voters from March 3-6. The university relied on voter lists showing past voter history – a method generally considered more reliable for Florida’s closed primary, which doesn’t allow independents to cast ballots.

March 05, 2016

Poll for anti-Donald Trump group finds narrowing Republican presidential race in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

A new poll by an anti-Donald Trump group has found a narrowing Republican presidential race in Florida, suggesting the barrage of TV ads by the group and its allies might be taking effect.

Trump leads Marco Rubio 35-30 percent ahead of the March 15 primary, according to the poll conducted for Our Principles PAC by The Tarrance Group, a Republican firm, and obtained by the Miami Herald. Ted Cruz drew 16 percent support, John Kasich 9 percent and Ben Carson 5 percent. (Carson formally dropped out Friday.) Six percent of respondents were undecided.

Earlier polls by other firms have suggested a wider -- in some cases, much wider -- margin between Trump and Rubio. The Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found Trump ahead by 20 percentage points, Quinnipiac University by 16 points and Associated Industries of Florida by 7 points. All those polls were conducted last week, before Our Priorities and two other groups -- American Future Fund and Club for Growth -- unleashed their anti-Trump advertising.

The New York Times reported Friday that Trump himself plans to advertise in Florida. Both Trump and Rubio are rallying in the state Saturday.

Continue reading "Poll for anti-Donald Trump group finds narrowing Republican presidential race in Florida" »

March 01, 2016

PPP poll: Majority favors Florida medical marijuana ballot question

via @learyreports

 

Sixty-five percent of Florida voters say they'll support a medical marijuana ballot initiative this fall, enough to pass the measure. Only 28 percent are opposed.

"There's bipartisan support for the measure with Democrats (75/18), independents (70/22), and Republicans (53/40) all expressing their favor for it," according to a new PPP poll.

More from a release:

Bill Nelson is Florida's most popular politician, with a 40% approval rating to 32% of voters who disapprove of him. That puts him ahead of the perennially unpopular Rick Scott, who comes in at 38/48, and even further ahead of the newly unpopular Marco Rubio whose Presidential bid has hurt him at home and caused his approval spread to drop down to 31/55

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

February 26, 2016

PPP poll: Even in head-to-head match-up, Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

If the Republican presidential race came down to only two candidates in Florida -- Donald Trump and Marco Rubio -- Trump would still get the better of Rubio, according to a new poll.

The Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found that Trump bests Rubio 52-38 percent in a head-to-head match-up. Two other Florida polls this week showed Rubio trailing Trump in the existing field of five candidates. PPP found that as well: Trump leads with 45 percent, followed by Rubio (25 percent), Ted Cruz (10 percent), John Kasich (8 percent) and Ben Carson (5 percent).

"Winning has made Trump more popular," the polling firm wrote in a news release.

Rubio and his aides have insisted the Florida senator will emerge victorious at home.

"I know my state," Rubio said Friday on NBC News' Today show. "We are going to win in Florida.

On the Democratic side, PPP found Hillary Clinton clobbers Bernie Sanders, 57-32 percent.

Florida's primary is March 15.