November 02, 2015

Saint Leo poll: Legislature mishandled redistricting, supports solar, and guns on campus

A majority of Florida voters say that the Florida Legislature "handled redistricting very poorly,'' according to a new statewide poll by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute.

While 64 percent surveyed expressed displeasure with the way state lawmakers have handled the once-a-decade redrawing of political boundaries., nearly 69 percent of the likely voters said they were unhappy with lawmakers. The legislature is on its third special session on redistricting since first enacting the plans in 2012 and, during that time,it has spent $11 million in taxpayer money defending its efforts.

The poll of 521 Floridians conducted Oct. 17-22, 2015, also asked people who should be responsible for redistricting in the future. The most popular answers were:

  • 28.7 percent -- an independent commission appointed by Democrats and Republicans.
  • 28.7 percent -- were unsure. 
  • 14.3 percent -- keep it with the Florida Legislature.
  • 13.9 percent -- an commission appointed by the governor.
  • 7.1 percent -- Florida judiciary and staff.

The survey also found that 50 percent of the public supports support allowing faculty, staff, and administrators to carry guns on the campuses of state colleges and universities; 78 percent support allowing people with solar panels be allowed to sell it back to the grid and 45 percent support fracking for natural gas in Florida, compared to 37 percent who disagree.

More here

Statement

Florida- Agree

 

Florida –Disagree

Florida Likely Voters – Agree

Florida Likely Voters –Disagree

The Florida Legislature has handled recent redistricting very poorly                               

64.0%

12.1%

68.7%

11.2%

Numerical base =

521

521

409

409

 

Monmouth poll: Marco Rubio moves up in New Hampshire

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio has moved up to third place in New Hampshire, behind Donald Trump and Ben Carson, according to a new poll released Monday by Monmouth University.

Trump drew 26 percent support, ahead of Carson's 16 percent and Rubio's 13 percent, triple what it was in Monmouth's September poll. The top three were followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 11 percent, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 9 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7 percent (that's unchanged from September, despite more his campaign's spending more than $6 million on TV ads). 

Monmouth polled 410 likely GOP primary voters. The survey's error margin is 4.8 percent.

"Marco Rubio's standout performance in the last debate seems to have paid dividends in a contest that was supposed to be dominated by his former mentor Jeb Bush," Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said in a statement. "Rubio's new-found support seems to be a little softer than for other candidates at the front of the pack, but it is not particularly solid for anybody."

Another poll released Monday -- this time of Florida voters and by the Viewpoint Florida organization -- shows Rubio (16 percent) trailing Trump (27 percent), with Carson in third place (15 percent) and Bush tied for fourth with Cruz (12 percent). The poll's most interesting finding is that Bush's voters would seem to move to Rubio if the former Florida governor were the exit the race, whereas Rubio's voters would split among Bush, Carson and Cruz.

The Viewpoint robopoll surveyed 2,047 registered Republicans in English and Spanish using an automated telephone system. It has an error margin of 2.2 percent. Pollster Randy Nielsen disclosed to Politico that he's a Rubio supporter.

Both the New Hampshire and Florida polls were conducted after last week's primary debate in which Rubio bested Bush in an exchange over Rubio's poor Senate attendance record.

An earlier version of this post said Rubio's New Hampshire support had doubled, when in fact it had tripled.

October 26, 2015

UPDATED AP poll: Jeb Bush, followed by Marco Rubio, fare best in GOP presidential field among Hispanics

From the Associated Press:

NEWARK, N.J. -- Republican front-runner Donald Trump is widely unpopular among the nation's Hispanics, a new AP-GfK poll finds, challenging the billionaire's oft-repeated assertion that he will win the Hispanic vote if he becomes his party's nominee.

The survey finds many of the Republican candidates running for president would probably struggle to win significant support among Hispanics in a general election. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are their favorites, but even they are a hard sell, the poll suggests.

Even so, most in the field are unknown to enough Hispanics that they might have a shot at proving themselves.

That's a particular struggle for Trump, who began his campaign for president by calling some immigrants from Mexico rapists and has vowed to deport all of the estimated 11 million people living in the country illegally if he is elected president. Trump is viewed unfavorably by 72 percent of Hispanics, with 6 in 10 having a very unfavorable opinion of him, the AP-GfK poll finds. Only 11 percent view him favorably.

[...]

Among Trump's rivals, Bush, who speaks fluent Spanish and married a Mexican-born woman, is viewed most favorably by Hispanics, with 26 percent giving the former Florida governor a positive rating. Rubio, a Florida senator and Cuban-American, comes in second, with 23 percent viewing him favorably.

Still, both Bush and Rubio are viewed unfavorably by more than one-third of Hispanics polled.

More here.

UPDATE: A note of caution about this poll, undisclosed in the AP story: The Hispanic results appear to be based off a larger poll of 1,027 respondents. But only 15 percent -- about 154 people -- of those respondents were Hispanic, according to the demographics of the poll. That would be a far smaller sample and a much larger (and unspecified) margin of error. So reader, beware.

October 22, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Marco Rubio moves to third place in Iowa as Ben Carson overtakes Donald Trump

via @learyreports

Marco Rubio is rising in Iowa, but not like Ben Carson who has overtaken Donald Trump there, according to a new Q poll.

Carson leads Trump 28 – 20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Rubio and 10 percent for Ted Cruz. In September, Trump led 27 percent to Carson’s 21 percent.

Jeb Bush is down at an alarming 5 percent, and tied for sixth place with Carly Fiorina.

Full poll results here.

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

October 19, 2015

University of North Florida poll: Jeb Bush drops to single digits in Florida

via @adamsmithtimes

An Oct. 8-13 University of North Florida statewide poll of Republican primary likely voters finds Donald Trump leading with 21.7 percent, followed by Ben Carson 19.3 percent, Marco Rubio in third with 14.9 percent and Jeb Bush at a distant fourth with 9 percent. Asked the name their second choice 20.1 percent said Rubio, 14.9 percent said Carson, 11.1 percent said Carly Fiorina, 10.2 percent said Bush, 6.2 percent Ted Cruz, and 6 percent Trump.

From a release:

Continue reading "University of North Florida poll: Jeb Bush drops to single digits in Florida" »

October 13, 2015

Survey: Floridians remained financially stressed; and most support diplomacy with Cuba

Florida voters remain financially stressed but don’t think they’re being overtaxed and are supportive of resuming diplomatic relations with Cuba, according to the latest USF-Nielsen Sunshine State Survey released Tuesday. 

The wide-ranging survey conducted July 30 through Aug. 16 found that 71 percent of all Floridians continue to feel the effects of the Great Recession and identify the economy and jobs as the issue that remains most important to them.  Download Sunshine State Survey 2015 2

But, in the second installment of the survey of 1,251 random adults, people identified the biggest threats to the state economy as loss of jobs, government waste and inefficiency – at both the state and local level – and undocumented residents and workers.

“What this release shows is that Floridians are still stressed economically,’’ said University of South Florida public affairs professor Susan MacManus, who directed the survey. “They are very much still looking somewhat judgmentally, and in a negative fashion, toward state and local leadership. And they are hopeful for attention to transportation and infrastructure.” 

Most people pointed to either investing in education and training or improving the state’s infrastructure – each with 23 percent – as the best way to improve the state’s job climate. Only 15 percent pointed to cutting or limiting taxes and regulations.

The survey shows that support for improving the state’s infrastructure, especially transportation, increased from 17 percent in 2014 to 23 percent this year, while support for cutting or limiting taxes and regulations dropped from 21 percent in 2014 to 15 percent in 2015.

"Along with population growth comes more congestion and longer commutes—which is at least a partial explanation for growing support for infrastructure improvements,'' she said. 

Continue reading "Survey: Floridians remained financially stressed; and most support diplomacy with Cuba" »

October 08, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Florida voters back recreational marijuana, Dems lead in Senate race to replace Marco Rubio

A new poll shows that Florida voters back recreational marijuana and that Democrats are leading the U.S. Senate race however the poll omitted some candidates in that race.

The poll by Quinnipiac shows that Florida voters overall support legalizing personal marijuana use 51 – 45 percent with the highest support among young voters. And voters support legalizing medical marijuana 87 – 12 percent.

A question on the ballot last year to allow medical marijuana failed by about two points to achieve the 60 percent margin needed for a constitutional amendment. A similar question will likely appear on the ballot next year.

In the race to replace U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Jupiter leads Republican Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera of Miami 37 – 29 percent and tops U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, Ponte Vedra Beach, 37 – 30 percent. Democratic U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson of Orlando gets 35 percent to Lopez-Cantera’s 32 percent and leads DeSantis 37 – 31 percent.

The poll did not include Republican candidates U.S. Rep. David Jolly of Tampa or Todd Wilcox and did not ask Democratic voters to choose between Murphy and Grayson.

It also didn’t include potential candidates including Republican CFO Jeff Atwater and Democratic U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham.

Republican Gov. Rick Scott gets a negative 41 – 47 percent job approval rating, down from 45 – 44 percent in an Aug. 25 Quinnipiac University poll.

Voters approve 46 – 27 percent of the job Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson is doing and give Rubio a 52 – 36 percent job approval rating.

The survey was done between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5 and included 1,173 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.  

October 07, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Donald Trump leads in Florida, Jeb Bush drops to 4th place

@PatriciaMazzei

Donald Trump remains in first place among Florida Republican voters -- despite being disliked and not trusted -- with twice as much support as Miami favorites Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.

Trump garnered 28 percent support in the Quinnipiac University poll, followed by Ben Carson (16 percent), Rubio (14 percent) and Bush (12 percent). (Carson is a part-time West Palm Beach resident, and Trump also owns property there.)

"The generally more energized Republican party members, who backed former Gov. Bush and Sen. Rubio when they ran for office in the Sunshine State, are deserting the establishment candidates for outsiders -- specifically Trump and Carson," Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement.

Still, asked if they have a positive view of Trump, 57 percent of poll respondents said they don't. Fifty-four percent said he's not honest and trustworthy.

Bush's slide has been dramatic: A February Q poll pegged his support at 32 percent. It was 17 percent in the firm's last survey in August. In the latest poll, Bush didn't crack the top five candidates in the two other swing states Quinnipiac surveyed: Ohio and Pennsylvania. (Rubio didn't either in Ohio but was third in Pennsylvania.)

Early polls, Bush and his team have been saying for a while, don't matter. Rubio has said the same thing.

Despite Trump's lead, he wouldn't defeat Democrats in potential general election match-ups, according to the poll, which has an error margin of 2.9 percentage points.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead with 43 percent support, followed by 19 percent each for Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, who is not a candidate.

October 06, 2015

PPP poll: Donald Trump still leads GOP field, Marco Rubio has 'momentum'

@PatriciaMazzei

Donald Trump's lead in the 2016 Republican presidential race has not grown but remained steady since late August, according to a new public-opinion survey by the Democratic-leaning PPP polling firm.

Trump drew 27 percent support in the poll, compared to 29 percent in August. Ben Carson came in second place with 17 percent (similar to 15 percent in the last PPP poll). Then came Marco Rubio with 13 percent and Jeb Bush with 10 percent. Trump's lead holds "with every subgroup of the GOP electorate," the survey notes.

"Rubio is really the only candidate who can claim any sort of momentum," according to the poll. "He's gone from 5th place at 7% to 3rd place at 13% over the last five weeks. And he has a 57/24 favorability rating that puts him only behind Carson when it comes to the most broadly liked of the Republican hopefuls. No one other than Rubio has seen more than a 2 point gain since our last poll."

Of Bush, the poll notes 10 percent is up a point from the previous survey, "but he's becoming more and more unpopular with Republican voters overall.

"Just 34% have a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. His struggles continue to be fueled by strong distrust from voters who identify themselves as 'very conservative' - his favorability with them is 26/56 and only 2% support him for the nomination." 

The usual caveat applies: It's early in the presidential race, and national polls don't show how candidates are doing in states that hold the first primaries and caucuses.

September 30, 2015

Poll asks voters for words to describe Donald Trump

@PatriciaMazzei

A new Suffolk University/USA Today poll published Wednesday asked respondents to describe some declared or potential presidential candidates in one word.

The results for Republican Donald Trump are striking.

Here are the top five words or groups of words they offered in the open-ended question:

1. Idiot/Jerk/Stupid/Dumb

2. Arrogant

3. Crazy/Nuts

4. Buffoon/Clown/Comical/Joke

5. Unfavorable/Dislike him

Trump remains the first choice among GOP likely voters, with 23 percent. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are tied for second place with 13 percent, followed by Marco Rubio (9 percent) and Jeb Bush (8 percent).

The error margin was 5 percentage points.