Hillary Clinton is still tough to beat in three of the most-important states in the nation: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. Note: this is a way-early poll, it basically rewards name ID. So Jeb Bush is doing best in the GOP field. Also, if you 'unskew' the Q poll (blending the average turnout by party ID from the last two presidential elections) Bush goes from trailing Clinton by 1 point to leading her by about 3, 46-43% in Florida, which Republicans must win to carry the White House).
Here's an excerpt from its press release:
Overall, Gov. Bush runs best of any Republican listed against Clinton, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.
Clinton’s favorability rating tops 50 percent in each state, while Republican ratings range from negative to mixed to slightly positive, except for Bush in Florida and Kasich in Ohio.
Of three “Native Son” candidates, measured against Clinton only in their home states, only Ohio Gov. John Kasich gives the Democrat a good run, getting 43 percent to her 44 percent.
• Florida: Clinton at 44 percent to Bush’s 43 percent;
• Ohio: Clinton over Bush 47 – 36 percent;
• Pennsylvania: Clinton tops New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 50 – 39 percent
While Clinton is locked in a veritable tie with Bush, she tops other Republican contenders by comfortable margins:
• 51 – 33 percent over Christie;
• 50 – 38 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
• 51 – 34 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee;
• 49 – 39 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, the Native Son.
In the Clinton-Bush matchup, women back the Democrat 50 – 41 percent, while men go Republican 45 – 37 percent.
Against other Republicans, Clinton’s margins among women range from 18 percentage points to 25 points.
She gets a 53 – 39 percent favorability rating from Florida voters, compared to Bush’s 46 – 38 percent favorability. Scores for other Republicans are:
• Negative 28 – 41 percent for Christie;
• 30 – 25 percent for Paul;
• 31 – 31 percent for Huckabee;
• 36 – 36 percent for Rubio.
“Not surprisingly, Mrs. Clinton’s worst state among the three is Florida. In the trial heat against the Sunshine State’s former governor, Jeb Bush, she and he are statistically tied. Another Native Son., U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, trails 49 – 39 percent,” Brown said.