July 22, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush best Hillary Clinton in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia


Miami's two Republican presidential contenders, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, along with Wisconsin's Scott Walker, lead Democrat Hillary Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups in three key swing states, according to a new public-opinion survey.

The Quinnipiac University poll found Clinton trails or is statistically tied in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia with the three GOP candidates:

                               Colorado           Iowa            Virginia

Clinton                        38                    36                    41

Rubio                          46                    44                    43


Clinton                        36                    36                    39

Bush                            41                    42                    42


Clinton                        38                    37                    40

Walker                         47                    45                    43

In some cases in Iowa and Colorado, Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont does the same or better than Clinton against Bush, Rubio and Walker, according to the poll, which has an error margin of 2.8 percentage points. The results indicate the 2016 general election could be a close one, assuming Democrats nominate Clinton and Republicans nominate Walker, Bush or Rubio.

Clinton has negative favorability ratings in all three states -- but they're better than Republican Donald Trump, the most negatively viewed of all presidential candidates, according to the poll.

July 14, 2015

Suffolk poll: Donald Trump leads GOP presidential field, ahead of Jeb Bush


Donald Trump is ahead in the 2016 Republican presidential race, according to a new national poll.

The survey by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump drawing 17 percent of GOP support, followed by Jeb Bush with 14 percent support. They were the only two Republicans with double-digit backing. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in fourth place with 5 percent.

A full 30 percent of the Republican electorate remains undecided, however. It's very early for polls -- especially national ones, as opposed to ones for early primary states -- to predict much. They reveal a snapshot in time given the still-small number of voters paying attention to the race.

In a hypothetical match-up against Democrat Hillary Clinton, Trump is upside down 51-34 percent. Bush fared best against the former Secretary of State, 46-42 percent. The poll's error margin is 3 percentage points.

"Trump is making daily headlines in advance of the primary season," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University political Research Center. "This has vaulted him to the top of the pack on the backs of conservative voters. But when you expand the electoral pool to include Democrats and independents that potency dissipates."

July 01, 2015

CNN/ORC poll: Jeb Bush rises and Marco Rubio falls but Hillary Clinton ahead of them both

A new CNN/ORC poll shows former Gov. Jeb Bush on the rise and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio down since May while Democrat Hillary Clinton continues to lead all GOP candidates in general election match-ups.

Bush stands at 19 percent, up from 13 percent in May. Trump follows at 12 percent, up from 3 percent before his announcement.

Rounding out the top five were former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (8 percent), neurosurgeon Ben Carson (7 percent) and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (7 percent).

Rubio was absent from the top five but just barely: he stood at 6 percent, down from 14 percent in May. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker who has not yet announced was also at 6 percent.

Clinton holds wide leads over other Democratic challengers. In a general election match-up, she holds leads over all the GOPers including Bush (54-41), Trump (59-34) and Rubio (56-39).

The poll was conducted by telephone June 26-28, among a random national sample of 1,017 adults. The margin of sampling error for results among the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

June 22, 2015

WSJ/NBC poll: It's starting to look like a Jeb Bush-Marco Rubio GOP race


Three-quarters of Republican primary voters across the country say they could see themselves supporting Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio for president, putting them ahead of the rest of the candidate field, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

In March, 49 percent of respondents said they could see themselves voting for Bush, the former Florida governor, and 56 percent for Rubio, a U.S. senator, the poll found. Three months later, those percentages climbed to 75 for Bush and 74 for Rubio. In third place is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with 65 percent (up from 52 percent in March).

The particularly strong improvement for Bush comes a week after he formally announced his 2016 candidacy. The first primaries are still a long way away, though, and a national poll doesn't capture voters' sentiment in each of the early-voting states.

When asked to pick one candidate they could vote for in the election, 22 percent of respondents chose Bush, 17 percent chose Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, and 16 percent chose Rubio. The poll's error margin is 6.38 percentage points.

Quinnipiac poll: Lopez-Cantera trails Murphy, Obama and Scott still in 'job approval hole'

Lieutenant Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera has not made it official yet, but a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll says he is already trailing U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy in the 2016 U.S. Senate race.

If a matchup were held today, Lopez-Cantera would be behind by 40 to 28 percent. He is expected to announce on July 15. Also trailing Murphy is U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis: 39 to 31 percent. 

The news is equally grim for Gov. Rick Scott and President Barack Obama. Both remain mired in negative approval ratings in Florida, according to the poll taken June 4-15 of 1,147 Florida voters that has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Obama's job approval rating in Florida is 43 to 51 percent while Scott's is worse with 39 percent of voters having a favorable view of him and 49 percent who don't.

Here's the press release:

Continue reading "Quinnipiac poll: Lopez-Cantera trails Murphy, Obama and Scott still in 'job approval hole'" »

June 17, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Strongest GOP challenger to Hillary Clinton in Florida is Marco Rubio


Marco Rubio's popularity surge since announcing his 2016 presidential campaign in April makes him the strongest Republican challenger in his home state of Florida -- at least for now -- against Democrat Hillary Clinton, according to a new public-opinion poll.

Clinton leads Rubio 47-44 percent in Florida, the survey by Quinnipiac University shows. Rubio also polls well in two other swing states, Ohio and Pennsylvania, even if he's not the GOP candidate in the tightest match-ups against Clinton in those cases.

In Ohio, potential contender and Gov. John Kasich leads Clinton 47-44 percent. Rubio trails her 45-42 percent. In Pennsylvania, she ekes ahead of Rubio 44-43 percent.

With error margins of 3 percentage points in Florida, 2.8 percentage points in Ohio and 3.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, most of the match-ups effectively show ties. So early in the 2016 race, the more important takeaway is the trend from several polls showing Rubio on the upswing, according to Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director.

"It's a long way until Election Day, but in the critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has a tiny edge over the GOP field," Brown said in a statement.

Eight other hopefuls are "within striking distance" in at least one of the three states, he noted. That includes newly announced candidate Jeb Bush, whom Clinton leads 46-42 percent in Florida, 42-41 percent in Ohio and 45-41 percent in Pennsylvania.

Clinton continues to struggle in survey questions asking voters if she is honest and trustworthy.

May 28, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: No leader in GOP presidential field


The more candidates that jump into the 2016 Republican presidential race, the less clear the field appears in voters' eyes, according to a new poll.

The national survey by Quinnipiac University found five contenders atop the growing list, which means no one is the front-runner. Among the five are both Miami hopefuls, former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, and two more Florida residents, physician Ben Carson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, along with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. All poll at 10 percent each.

Comprising the rest of the top 10 are Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (7 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (6 percent), Donald Trump (5 percent), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (4 percent), and Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (2 percent each). The poll's error margin is 2.4 percent.

Organizers of the first GOP debate in August have said they'll fit no more than 10 people on stage. Half of the people who would be included today -- Bush, Walker, Trump, Christie and Kasich -- have yet to formally launch their candidacies.

"Safe to say, the 2016 Republican presidential primary is anyone's race," Tim Malloy, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement. "With no front-runner and identical numbers for the top five contenders, it's a horserace which can only be described as a scrambled field -– at least so far."

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads all potential Republican rivals, with the closest match-ups putting her 46-42 percent against Paul and 45-41 percent against Rubio. Were she to face Bush, the split would be 47-37 percent.

"This poll reflects what many others do -- Sen. Paul's brand of opportunity conservatism is the GOP's best hope of defeating Hillary Clinton and the Washington Machine," Paul spokesman Doug Stafford said in an email.

With so much of the field undefined, however, it's too early to read much into polls -- especially national ones that don't portray the state-by-state primary contests.

May 07, 2015

WMUR poll: Jeb Bush ahead in New Hampshire


Another day, another poll in the early days of the 2016 presidential campaign. This one is good for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who according to the survey is ahead of the Republican pack in New Hampshire, which holds the first primary.

The WMUR Granite State poll shows Bush drawing 15 percent of likely GOP primary voters who responded to the poll, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 12 percent, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 11 percent and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 10 percent. The survey's error margin is 3.7 percentage points, which means the crowded candidate field remains tight.

"Bush, Rubio, Walker, and Paul seem to be separating themselves slightly from the rest of the field but this is likely due to press attention rather than any real campaign work," said Andrew Smith, Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Sixty percent of respondents hold a favorable opinion of Rubio, the best-liked candidate so far. That number is 51 percent for Paul and 50 percent for Walker. On the flip side, 34 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.

May 06, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Jeb Bush trails early in Iowa


Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a still-undeclared candidate, trails other Republicans in the early 2016 presidential field in Iowa, a new poll has found.

The survey by Quinnipiac University found Bush in seventh place, far behind his rivals, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker holds a 21-percent lead among GOP caucus-goers, ahead of Rubio and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (13 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (12 percent), former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (11 percent), retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (11 percent) and Bush (5 percent).

When asked which candidate they would not vote for, 25 percent of respondents said Bush, and 20 percent said New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Rubio drew the highest favorability rating, with 69 percent of respondents saying they have a favorable opinion of him, compared to 9 percent who don't.

"The first few months of the Iowa Republican caucus race show Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as the early leader," assistant pol director Peter Brown said in a statement. "U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, on the strength of an impressive candidacy roll out, has moved from the bottom of the pack into a tie for second."

With the candidate field still in flux, and Bush yet to make his candidacy official, a poll this early in the campaign means relatively little. It does underscore, however, that Iowa may not be the most natural fit for Bush. He has long been viewed as a stronger player in New Hampshire, for example, and Nevada, two early-primary states where an electorate less focused on social issues might be more receptive to Bush's brand of conservatism.

May 05, 2015

NYT/CBS poll: Republicans like Marco Rubio -- and Jeb Bush's experience


Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio continue to fare well in early national polls about the 2016 presidential race, with a new New York Times/CBS News survey showing them consistently among the most popular contenders among Republicans.

Forty-eight percent of Republican respondents said they would consider voting for Rubio, compared to 47 percent for newly announced candidate Mike Huckabee and 46 percent for Bush Seventeen percent said they would not vote for Rubio, which is lower than Huckabee's 26 percent and Bush's 23 percent. 

Fifty-one percent of Republicans called Rubio's views on issues "about right." Bush's number was very close, 49 percent. The poll's error margin is three percentage points.

More importantly for Bush, the former Florida governor, 73 percent of Republican voters in the poll said they want a candidate with experience outside Washington D.C. And when asked about candidates having the "right" kind of experience, Bush's numbers were 59-24 percent, compared to Rubio's 44-24 percent.

Our usual caveat: It's very early for polls to mean much in a race still so many months away. They merely offer a glimpse at how a candidate (or undeclared candidate, in Bush's case) is doing for now, when most people are not yet following the fledgling campaign.