CNN/ORC FL likely voter poll: Romney 50%, Obama 49%. (But Obama wins just registered voters)

CNN's latest ORC Florida poll is a lot like it's last one showing Mitt Romney beating President Obama by 1 point, inside the poll's error margin, among likely voters. The poll simultaneously backs up both campaigns' statements about the race.

On one hand, it shows Romney is winning, albeit marginally. On the other, the broader poll of just registered voters (those who don't describe themselves as likely to vote) shows Obama beating Romney 52-46. The Obama folks have complained the "screens" of these likely voter polls is stripping out its voters and, it says, it's turning out sporadic voters. The Romney folks say that's spin.

We'll see on Nov. 6. Or maybe the 7th, if there's a too-close-to-call election night.

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FL Dems beat GOP by 73,000 early votes by Monday, wipes out GOP absentee-vote lead. But....

In the first two days of in-person early voting, Florida Democrats wiped away a lead that Florida Republicans had run up thanks to the GOP's strong absentee-ballot program. In all, about 1.9 million ballots have been cast (about 16 percent of the 11.9 million voters)

As of this morning, Democrats cast a total of 73,000 more early in person ballots than Republicans, who had cast about 63,000 more absentee ballots, typically cast by mail. So it looks like a 10,000-vote edge for Democrats.

But it's probably smaller than that.

The Monday absentee ballot numbers aren't really updated because no mail is delivered Sunday. By averaging the daily percentage increases of the GOP absentee-vote lead, the total Democratic advantage could be as low as 2,000. Of course, it could be higher. This is just a projection.

PPP FL poll: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Connie Mack looking like a goner)

From Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats

PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49/48, flipping the numbers from each of our last two polls of the state which found Romney leading by a point. Every poll PPP has conducted in the state since the first Presidential debate has found a one point race.

Obama's leading in Florida based on his strength with women (54/45), African Americans (89/10), and voters under 30 (55/39). Romney is strong with men (53/43), whites (57/39), and seniors (53/46). Romney also has narrow advantages with Hispanics (54/46) and independents (50/43).

With favorable FL polls, Romney heads to Miami on Wednesday (Obama, Clinton in Orlando Monday)

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is heading to the University of Miami on Wednesday, according to the campaign.

The Romney visit will come just three days after a Miami Herald poll showed President Obama's numbers aren't where they need to be in Miami-Dade, Florida's most-populous county, County if he wants to carry the Sunshine State.

To win Florida, Obama needs a big lead in Miami-Dade, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 15 percentage points, 44-29 percent. Obama won Miami-Dade by a 16-point margin in 2008.

A Sunday Miami Herald poll, however, shows Obama is only winning Miami-Dade by 9 percentage points. As of Sunday morning, after the first day of in-person early voting, Democrats narrowly led Republicans in all 153,000 ballots (absentee and in-person) cast, 42-40 percent in Miami-Dade.

Romney's strategy: keep Obama from running up big numbers in Southeast Florida, the most-liberal region of the state. Romney is winning in conservative North Florida and a Tampa Bay Times poll Sunday showed the Republican is carrying the center of the state, nicknamed the I-4 Corridor, 51-45 percent over Obama.

Obama visits the heart of the I-4 Corridor, Orlando, on Monday with former President Bill Clinton. Vice-President Joe Biden will visit some area of the state on Wednesday.

Assuming the schedule holds, Wednesday marks the second time Romney has visited the University of Miami. Florida is must-win for Romney. Obama, who doesn't need Florida as badly as Romney, has visited UM three times this year.

 

Liberal group FL poll: Obama 47-Romney 45

A recent Florida poll of likely voters from Project New America and USAction, which appears to be a liberal union-leaning group, shows President Obama holding an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney 47-45%.

The group, which hired Grove Insight, to conduct the survey had polled last week in Florida as well and found Obama up 48-45%. Assuming the numbers are right (they didn't send cross tabs and this group is largely unknown), that suggests Obama got nothing out of the debate. The survey says it polled 40 percent Democrats, 40 percent Republicans and 20 percent independents (a decent Election Day model).

Here are excerpts of the polling memo:

Union-backed poll of FL: Obama-Romney tied, but prez could lead by 5 with early voters

Americans United for Change, a union-backed group, released a one-page memo from a Mellman Group poll of Florida voters showing the race dead even in Florida: President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied 47-47.

"Our just completed survey shows that the presidential race in the Sunshine State will be yet another nail-biter, but President Obama has some key advantages over Romney beneath the surface," the memo said.

The most intriguing aspect of the poll: Obama might lead Romney 50-45 percent among voters who already cast ballots; about 5 percent refused to say for whom they voted. As today, that number of absentee-ballot voters is 830,000 in Florida. When the poll was taken (Oct. 18-21) the number of absentee voters was about 750,000.

Caveat: we don't know if the numbers are good because there are no crosstabs and it's not clear how many respondents were Republicans, Democrats and independents there are. Still, Democrats are holding their own with absentee ballots cast and they typically dominate in-person early voting, set to begin Saturday. Obama and Romney will be in the state around that time to turn out the early vote.

Here's more from the memo:

The President leads registered independents 49%-44% (7% undecided), and self-described moderates by a larger 59% to 29% margin. Our results also suggest Obama holds an image advantage among the undecided—with 41% holding a favorable and 37% unfavorable. However undecideds harbor quite negative views of Governor Romney, with just 25% favorable and a 51% majority offering an unfavorable opinion of the GOP challenger.

The President holds sizeable leads among several key groups, including women (51%-45%), younger (under 50) voters (51% to 40%), Hispanics (60%-39%), and African-Americans (90%-7%).

With a strong and disciplined get-out-the vote effort, President Obama has a strong chance to repeat his 2008 win in Florida.

Survey USA FL poll: Obama 47-Romney 46. Has Mitt's momentum stopped?

 SurveyUSA today a virtual tie in the Florida presidential race, but a Democratic-leaning Project New America showed Obama up 48-45. And Zogby International, using an internet poll found Obama leading 48-42.

Since we know more of SurveyUSA (although Zogby used to conduct traditional live-call surveys for The Herald, here's their write up

In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 10/19/12, Barack Obama is a nominal, statistically insignificant, single point ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Romney is up 2 points, Obama is down 1 point. Florida's critical 29 electoral votes remain up for grabs, 18 days till votes are counted. Romney has gained ground in each of 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 07/20/12. Obama's once 12-point lead among Florida women has been reduced to 4 points. The contest is tied among men. Narrowly, Cubans vote Republican. Decisively, non-Cuban Hispanics vote Democrat. Voters under age 50 vote for Obama. Voters age 50+ vote for Romney. Whites vote for Romney 5:4. Moderates vote for Obama 5:4. Independents break 44% to 40% for Romney.

Voters with a high school education split 45% for each candidate. Voters with some college education split 47% for each candidate. Romney has a 5-point edge among those with a 4-year college degree. Obama leads among those who earn less than $80,000 a year. Romney leads among Florida voters who earn more than $80,000 a year. 4 of Florida's 5 regions break for Romney. Obama's advantage comes entirely from Southeast Florida, where he leads by 24 points. Obama has a Plus 3 Net Favorability today. Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability today.

In an election for United States Senator from Florida today, Democrat Bill Nelson gets 48% to 40% for Republican Connie Mack. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Nelson is up 1 point, Mack is up 4 points. Nelson had led by 11, now leads by 8. Nelson had led by 15 points in Central Florida, now leads by 1. Nelson had led by 14 among Independent voters, now leads by 6. Nelson had led by 37 points among political moderates, now leads by 23. There is offsetting movement among middle-income voters, where Nelson had led by 10, now leads by 15, and among seniors, where Nelson had led by 2, now leads by 10. Nelson has a Plus 9 Net Favorability in the state. Mack has a Minus 10 Net Favorability.

More here

ORC FL poll: Romney 49-Obama 48.

A new CNN/ORC International poll conducted entirely after the second presidential debate Tuesday shows Republican Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49%-48%. That's a lead well within the poll's error margin.

But it ain't the topline that's good for Romney and bad for Obama. It's the trend.

This poll represents a 5-point shift in Romney's favor (3 more points for him and 2 fewer for Obama), since the last CNN/ORC poll in August which had Obama on top. These latest Romney-Obama 49-48 figures are identical to a PPP poll on Sunday. And the shift is the same -- 5 points in Romney's favor -- since the last PPP poll in September that had identical toplines to CNN/ORC's the previous month (Obama-Romney 50-46).

The Miami Herald's poll had the biggest Romney-Obama lead, 51-44, in early October. The trend: 8 points in Romney's favor. That trend was identical to the 8-point shift that American Research Group found last week with its last poll, showing Romney-Obama 49-46.

But that doesn't mean Obama has lost or Romney has won Florida. There's a good chance the race is tightening after Obama's solid debate performance this week. The third and final debate is at Lynn University in Boca Raton on Monday. More polls, obviously, will tell us more about the race and the effects of the last two debates.

And the debates matter. The Herald poll earlier this month indicated that the first debate had a major effect on the campaign. The newest ORC poll was taken after the second debate.

After Monday, it's almost all ground game.

Democrats, for the first time in more than a decade, have narrowed the traditional Republican lead in casting early absentee ballots in Florida. In 2008, Democrats were behind 16 percentage points in absentee ballots cast at this point in the election. Now they're down 5. Democrats typically excel in in-person early voting, and they intend to do so when in-person precincts open Oct. 27.

As of this morning, 620,000 people had cast absentee ballots in Florida. About 1.8 million could be cast. Some background on today's figures are here.

PPP FL poll: Romney 49- Obama 48 (a 5-point Romney gain)

From Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats and liberals (Note: the poll differs from a Miami Herald survey last week, which had a 7-point Mitt Romney lead, although both show a Romney surge):

PPP's newest Florida poll finds a 5 point gain for Mitt Romney over the last three weeks. He now leads Barack Obama by a 49/48 margin, after trailing 50-46 in late September. The shift in the race is largely attributable to independent voters shifting their preferences. Where before Obama had a 51-40 advantage with them, now Romney's taken the lead by a 51/43 spread. When it comes to the biggest issue in the election, the economy, Romney's edge over Obama expands to 51/46 on who voters trust more.

Romney and Obama's images have headed in difference directions since the Presidential debate. Voters have warmed up to Romney a good bit, going from giving him a negative favorability rating at 44/51 to a positive one at 50/47. Meanwhile Obama's approval numbers have gone the other way. Where before he was on positive ground with 51% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapproved, now he's in slightly negative territory at 48/50.

FIU Hispanic FL voter poll: Obama 51- Romney 44

Mitt Romney is closing the gap on President Barack Obama among likely Hispanic Florida voters, a majority of whom say they’re not better off than four years ago, according to a new Florida International University/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll.

Obama is ahead of Romney 51-44 percent among Hispanics, a relatively narrow lead that could spell trouble for a Democratic campaign that’s counting on minority support as non-Hispanic white voters flock to the Republican ticket in droves.

In the rest of the country, however, it’s a different story for Obama when it comes to likely Hispanic voters.

The president wallops Romney 66-31 percent overall across the U.S., according to the poll’s national survey of 1,000 likely Hispanic voters. It was taken Oct. 10-11 along with the 720-voter poll in Florida.

The difference here: Cuban-American voters, who are overwhelmingly Republican and who appear to be increasingly excited about Romney’s campaign.

“What’s remarkable is the demographic split in Florida: Puerto Rican and Dominican and other Hispanic voters trust Obama. Cubans just don’t,” said Eduardo Gamarra, an FIU professor of Latin American studies who conducted the poll with his political research firm, the Newlink Group.

In the national and Florida surveys, Cuban voters consistently gave Obama low marks on handling the economy, immigration and foreign policy. Puerto Rican and Dominican voters said the opposite.

Momentum from Cuban voters could help other Republican candidates on the Florida ballot, particularly in South Florida.

Take out Cuban voters, and Obama wins Florida Hispanics 64 percent to Romney’s 33 percent, according to the poll, which has a 3.6 percent error margin.

Overall, 54 percent of Florida Hispanics said they were not better off than four years ago, compared to 46 percent who said they were. That’s not just a reflection of Cuban sentiment; it’s an indication of Florida’s unemployment rate, which is higher than the nation’s. And Hispanic unemployment is higher still. The number of Hispanic children living in poverty now exceeds the number of non-Hispanic white children, even though Hispanics are a minority.

More here

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/14/3049990/poll-president-barack-obama-holds.html#storylink=cpy