January 20, 2016

FAU poll: David Jolly, Alan Grayson ahead early in U.S. Senate race in Florida, with many undecided

@PatriciaMazzei

Florida voters are undecided about who they want to replace Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate, according to a new state robopoll.

But of those supporting a candidate early on in the campaign, Democrats prefer U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson of Orlando to U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Jupiter, 27-20 percent, the Florida Atlantic University survey shows. Republicans like U.S. Rep. David Jolly of Indian Shores, who received 28 percent support, over U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis of Ponte Vedra Beach and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, who drew 8 percent support each.

How many voters remain undecided? Forty-five percent of Democrats and a full 50 percent of Republicans. The primaries won't take place until August.

"While it is very early, the race between Congressmen Patrick Murphy and Allen Grayson looks to be competitive," Kevin Wagner, an FAU associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Business and Economics Polling Initiative, said in a statement. "While Grayson has a lead in our poll, the large number of undecideds make that lead tenuous at best. Grayson's advantage may simply be greater statewide name recognition at this point. This appears to be a wide open primary contest.

"In the Republican Senate primary, Congressman David Jolly is out to a substantial early lead, but with half of the polled voters undecided, this race is far from over."

The poll, conducted Jan. 15-18, surveyed 371 likely Democratic voters and 345 likely Republican voters, with an error margin of 5 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively.

FAU poll: Donald Trump grows Florida lead over Ted Cruz

@PatriciaMazzei

Florida is still Donald Trump country, according to a new robopoll that finds the real-estate magnate and part-time West Palm Beach resident drawing 48 percent support from likely Republican presidential primary voters.

The Florida Atlantic University survey found Trump a whopping 32 percentage points ahead of his nearest competitor, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who drew 16 percent support. In third and fourth place respectively were Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (11 percent) and former Gov. Jeb Bush (10 percent).

The results show Trump's and Cruz's popularity continuing to grow in Florida. Here's how they've changed since the last time the university polled, in November:

Trump: 48% (+16)

Cruz: 16% (+6)

Rubio: 11% (-7)

Bush: 10% (+1)

"At this point, Donald Trump is simply crushing the opposition in the Florida Republican primary," Kevin Wagner, an FAU associate professor of political science and a research fellow of the university's Business and Economics Polling Initiative, said in a statement. "Not only has he increased his lead, Mr. Trump's favorability ratings among Republicans are now ahead of his competitors by a substantial margin."

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds a wide lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 62-26 percent, but the contest has tightened 8 percentage points since November.

Clinton and Trump were the most favorably viewed candidates among respondents, and Cruz the one they viewed least favorably. Trump leads even among Hispanics, who have dropped their support for Rubio and the bilingual Bush. In potential head-to-head match-ups, Clinton trails 47-43 percent and Bush 45-42 percent, ties with Rubio at 46 percent and leads Cruz 47-42 percent.

The poll of 383 likely GOP voters and 386 likely Democratic voters was conducted January 15-18 and has an error margin of 4.9 percentage points.

January 06, 2016

PPP poll: Marco Rubio in 2nd place in New Hampshire

 @PatriciaMazzei

A survey published Wednesday by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found Donald Trump still leading -- but not growing his lead -- among Republicans in New Hampshire, which holds the nation's first primary Feb. 9.

Trump drew 29 percent support, followed by Marco Rubio (15 percent), Chris Christie (11), John Kasich (11), Jeb Bush (10) and Ted Cruz (10).

The Rubio-Christie-Kasich-Bush traffic jam among more moderate conservatives is helping Trump, according to the polling firm. If it were a three-way GOP race among Trump, Rubio and Cruz, the split would be 36-34-19 percent.

"If the Republican establishment really wants to stop Donald Trump in New Hampshire it might require some more people dropping out of the race," PPP President Dean Debnam said in a statement. "Four different establishment candidates all polling in double digits is what's allowing Trump to have such a big lead in the state."

Trump's popularity has stagnated: It was 28 percent in October and 27 percent in December. Bush gained the most support since early December, moving up to 10 percent from 5 percent, followed by Rubio, who climbed to 15 percent from 11 percent. Bush's favorability -- a measure of how much voters like him -- has also improved.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in a tight race, 47-44 percent.

The error margin is 4.3 percentage points for Republicans and 4.5 percentage points for Democrats.

December 22, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Donald Trump in lead followed by Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio

A new Quinnipiac poll shows that Donald Trump remains the frontrunner nationally followed by U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and then U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio. Here are the results of the poll:

Trump: 28 percent

Cruz: 24 percent

Rubio: 12 percent

Ben Carson: 10 percent

Chris Christie: 6 percent

Jeb Bush: 4 percent

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton tops Bernie Sanders 61-30 percent. Clinton leads Trump 47-40 but is essentially tied with Cruz (44-44) and Rubio (44-43).

The poll was done Dec. 16-20, which means it started one day after the last GOP debate and has a margin of error of 4.6 percent.

December 09, 2015

CNN/ORC poll: Marco Rubio rising in New Hampshire poll but way behind Donald Trump

via @learyreports 

CNN/ORC poll New Hampshire:

Donald Trump - 32 percent (up six points since September)

Marco Rubio - 14 percent (up 5)

Chris Christie - 9 percent (up 4)

Jeb Bush - 8 percent (up 1)

John Kasich - 7 percent (same)

Ted Cruz - 6 percent (up 1)

Carly Fiorina - 5 percent (down 11)

Ben Carson - 5 percent (down 3)

The poll was done Nov. 30-Dec. 7.

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

December 07, 2015

Monmouth poll: Ted Cruz tops Donald Trump in Iowa

via @learyreports

Here's why Marco Rubio is focusing on Ted Cruz:

A new Monmouth University poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers shows:

Cruz - 24 percent

Donald Trump - 19 percent

Rubio - 17 percent

Ben Carson - 13 percent

Jeb Bush - 6 percent

From a polling memo:

Monmouth showed Carson on top two months ago, but his support has plummeted by 19 points since then.  Cruz’s support, on the other hand, has jumped by 14 points.  Rubio has seen his vote share increase by 7 points since October.  Support levels for both Trump and Bush are nearly identical to two months ago.

Evangelical voters, who make up about half of the Iowa GOP caucus electorate, back Cruz (30%) over Trump (18%), Rubio (16%), and Carson (15%).  In October, Carson held the advantage with this group – garnering 36% support to 18% for Trump, 12% for Cruz, and 9% for Rubio.

Continue reading "Monmouth poll: Ted Cruz tops Donald Trump in Iowa" »

December 04, 2015

December 02, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Marco Rubio moves up nationally, behind Donald Trump

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio has climbed to second place nationally, behind only Donald Trump, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The survey shows Trump's enduring lead in the 2016 Republican presidential field. He garnered 27 percent support, followed by Rubio (17 percent), Ben Carson and Ted Cruz (16 percent each). No other candidate made it to the double digits; the next most-popular contender was Jeb Bush with 5 percent support.

With an error margin of 3.8 percentage point, the results show Rubio statistically tied with Carson and Cruz. But the Florida senator is still 3 percentage points higher than he was in the last Quinnipiac poll a month ago. It's also a drop for Carson, who last month was in a statistical tie with Trump. 

"It doesn't seem to matter what he says or who he offends, whether the facts are contested or the 'political correctness' is challenged, Donald Trump seems to be wearing Kevlar," Tim Malloy, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement. "Dr. Ben Carson, moving to center stage just one month ago, now needs some CPR. The Doctor sinks. The Donald soars. The GOP, 11 months from the election, has to be thinking, 'This could be the guy.'"

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton grew her lead over Bernie Sanders and is now ahead of him 60-30 percent, the poll shows, compared to 53-35 percent in November. Martin O'Malley came in at 2 percent.

In general-election match-ups, Clinton and Sanders beat all the top Republicans.

"Secretary Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders have to be hoping Trump is the GOP's guy," Malloy said.

November 23, 2015

Suffolk poll: Marco Rubio in second place in New Hampshire

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio is in second place among Republican primary voters in new Hampshire, according to a new poll by Suffolk University and the Boston Globe.

Rubio still only has half the support of frontrunner Donald Trump, the poll shows: 11 percent compared to Trump's 22 percent. But the Florida senator has more support than other GOP establishment candidates who could challenge Trump. And Rubio remains well-liked by poll respondents: 64 percent gave him a favorable rating and 22 percent an unfavorable one, the best numbers in the field.

"Donald Trump's loyal 22 percent goes a long way in New Hampshire," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement. "As long as the remaining 78 percent is split relatively evenly among the six or seven major contenders, we're getting close to 'Trump-mate' in the Granite State."

The other top candidates were Ben Carson (10 percent), Ted Cruz and John Kasich (9 percent each), and Jeb Bush (8 percent).

Last time Suffolk polled the New Hampshire field, in June, Bush was in first place, followed by Trump.

November 18, 2015

FAU poll: Jeb Bush fades to 5th in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Jeb Bush's popularity continues to drop in his home state, according to a new robopoll by Florida Atlantic University that shows the former Florida governor in single digits and in fifth place among his Republican presidential rivals.

Bush trails Donald Trump, who holds a comfortable lead in the field with 36 percent. The lineup after Trump? Marco Rubio (18 percent), Ben Carson (15 percent) and Ted Cruz (10 percent). Bush garnered 9 percent support -- half of Rubio's and a quarter of Trump's.

"Despite conjecture that Donald Trump has plateaued, his support in Florida remains very strong and could be growing," Kevin Wagner, associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative, said in a statement.

The poll's error margin is 5.2 percentage points, which means Bush is effectively tied with Cruz and perhaps not that far removed from Carson. Bush's campaign has acknowledged the bad polls but insisted Bush's budget cuts and revamped approach -- focusing more on early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire -- will eventually push his numbers back up.

FAU, which is based in Boca Raton, is relative newcomer to the state's presidential polling scene. In its last presidential poll in September, it found Trump in first place, followed by Rubio, Bush, Carson and Carly Fiorina.

Read the full poll:

here.