October 09, 2014

Libertarian Adrian Wyllie sues to get into Florida Press Association debate

@MarcACaputo

Shut out of televised debates, Libertarian candidate for governor Adrian Wyllie filed a federal lawsuit Thursday that seeks to force the Florida Press Association and Leadership Florida to allow him onstage with Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist next week.

Wyllie’s suit, arguing his free-speech and equal-protection rights are being infringed, largely revolves around the debate organizers’ candidate-participation criteria, which says candidates who earn 15 percent support in a “reputable independent poll” by Sept. 30 can join the debate. 

The criteria, Wyllie claims, were changed on him as he picked up support heading into the Oct. 15 debate at Broward College, which is named in the suit along with the nonprofit Leadership Florida and press association, media industry trade and lobby group.

However, as early as Aug. 20 2013, the 15 percent-polling rule was set by the press association. It was specifically reported by the News Service of Florida on that day. Dean Ridings, president and CEO of the press association, said the criteria about polling thresholds predate 2013 and have been around since 2010.

“We want to be fair and consistent,” Ridings said. “There are 10 candidates for governor and why would it be fair to them to change our criteria?”

Wyllie is planning a protest at another televised debate to be held Friday at Telemundo in Miramar, where Crist and Scott will face off for the first time. The debate will be broadcast at 7 p.m. that night.

The third and final debate between the two major candidates takes place Oct. 21 in Jacksonville.

Crist wanted more debates, but Scott would only agree to three. Scott's running mate, Lt. Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera, has also ignored calls from Crist's running mate, Annette Taddeo, to debate on television.

Download Wyllie complaint

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UNF poll: Charlie Crist leads Rick Scott 43-38 percent, Wyllie at 10 percent

@MarcACaputo

A University of North Florida poll of statewide likely voters shows Charlie Crist leading Gov. Rick Scott 43-38 percent -- marking the fourth survey this week that has the Democrat pulling slightly ahead.

Crist's advatnage (as with polls from 0ptimusPublic Policy Polling and SurveyUSA) is within the poll's error margin. So the race could be called a tie. But Crist's lead is almost outside that margin.

And, as stated before: it ain't the topline, it's the trend.

The trend is with Crist right now, as first noted last week. And, as noted yesterday, polling in a swing state House seat also shows Crist doing well.

It's particularly advantageous for Crist because voters are now returning absentee ballots in Florida. People are voting. And they're trending Crist.

Still, the race is still close. Republicans tend to over-perform and Democrats tend to under-perform in mid-term elections. Polling is one thing. Performance is another. Any one of the major candidates can lose, especially as their campaigns devolve into more negative pettiness, which is likely benefitting Libertarian Adrian Wyllie, who pulls 10 percent support now.

"No one knows who he is. But people are heading his way for a reason," said UNF pollster Michael Binder.

Download Press Release #1 Fall Statewide 2014

 

 

October 08, 2014

What the polling in a Pasco state House seat says about FL Gov's race

Via @adamsmithtimes

First a confession: For most of the past year, my gut has told me that Rick Scott would likely win a second term and that there was a reasonable likelihood it wouldn't even be close. Around the start of October, as Charlie Crist was not only still standing but actually neck and neck or ahead of the incumbent governor, it became clear this race is a coin toss and Crist might actually pull it off.
Now I'm thinking Crist may have become the clear frontrunner.

I have just seen an internal poll of likely voters in Florida House 36, the west Pasco County district currently represented by Democrat Amanda Murphy and formerly represented by Republican Mike Fasano. District 36, loaded with working class Floridians and retirees may be the single best bellwether state House district in Florida. Barack Obama narrowly won it in 2008 and 2012, and Rick Scott narrowly won it in 2010.

The telephone poll was taken Monday and Tuesday by the Democratic firm SEA Polling & Strategic Design (which nailed it on Murphy's special election win in 2013) and found 45 percent planning to vote for Crist, 37 percent for Scott, and 14 percent for Libertarian Adrian Wyllie. In August, the firm showed Scott leading by five points, with 43 percent support to 38 percent for Crist and 10 percent for Wyllie.

Look inside the numbers and it's still worse for the Republican governor:
***Crist leads among voters 65 and over by 8 percentage points.

***Crist is winning nearly one in four Republicans in the district, while Scott is winning 13 percent of Democrats.

***Crist leads among women by a whopping 19 percentage points.

More here 

Two new FL polls show Charlie Crist over Rick Scott by 2%, but race likely dead even

@MarcACaputo

Liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling and SurveyUSA, which is polling for WFLA-TV, both released poll results last night showing Democrat Charlie Crist leading Gov. Rick Scott by 2 percentage points, an inside-the-error-margin lead for the challenger.

SurveyUSA shows Crist up 44-42 percent, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie garnering 6 percent support. SurveyUSA, unlike PPP, released its crosstabs. As noted last week, SurveyUSA's independent sample is volatile. Here, it shows Scott leading them by 5 points -- a net 13 percentage point shift in his favor.

SurveyUSA has an equal number of Democratic and Republican respondents, 40 percent. That might be high on the Democratic side. In my estimation, based on the averages of the two prior governor's races, a Republican +2 model is more likely. Use that figure for SurveyUSA, and the race is dead even: 42.9 percent for Scott and about 42.8 percent for Crist. (More here on poll unskewing)

PPP's survey, conducted for the liberal Center for American Progress Action Fund, has Crist with an inside-the-error-margin lead of 45-43 percent with Wyllie at 8 percent. It has Democratic respondents outnumbering Republican respondents by 5 percentage points.

Chances are, the race is also essentially tied.

Two polls from two political groups shared with The Miami Herald yesterday showed the race literally dead even: 41-41 percent and 40-40 percent, respectively. Both of those polls were weighted to reflect a slightly more Republican electorate. And yesterday's 0ptimus poll showed just that (albeit, 0ptimus had a high number of respondents favoring Wyllie, 13 percent).

A note on polling technology: SurveyUSA and PPP are robo-pollers, and therefore both miss cellphone voters by phone. They try to compensate for that loss in other ways, but generally speaking, robo-polls lean conservative because houses with landlines tend to have voters who fit a more-conservative demographic model compared to cellphone voters, who tend to be younger and more-liberal (but therefore less-likely to vote). Also, because these polls are self-ID surveys (where the voter says what party he's identified with) there's also a chance that a sample that leans ever-so-slightly Democratic is due to the fact that Democrats might be ever-so-slightly more excited about voting (and vice versa).

October 07, 2014

0ptimus FL poll: Adrian Wyllie gaining at 13%; Charlie Crist, Rick Scott deadlocked 40-39%

@MarcACaputo

The new Republican-leaning analytics firm 0ptimus is out with a new Florida governor's race poll and it's probably great news for the least-known candidate: Adrian Wyllie.

The Libertarian is pulling in 13 percent support from likely voters, an improvement of 2 percentage points since 0ptimus' last poll. It's an even bigger pickup compared to Wyllie's standing when 0ptimus first surveyed his name from Aug. 18-Aug. 24, when he registered 9 support.

If Wyllie hits 15 percent support and the Florida Press Association deems 0ptimus a "credible" poll, then Wyllie will likely participate in its Oct. 15 debate featuring Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist. Wyllie has been shut out of Friday's Telemundo debate.

Update: The Florida Press Association says Wyllie can't participate in its Oct. 15 debate between Gov. Rick Scott and Charlie Crist because, to qualify, Wyllie had to register 15 percent in a poll that had to be taken before Sept. 30 by an independent pollster, which the association defines as one not affiliated with a political party or group. Wyllie also won't be in Friday's Telemundo face-off between Scott and Crist.

Crist and Scott, meanwhile, are essentially deadlocked at 40-39 percent.

"This week, the two candidates stayed neck and neck, and the only 'mover' in the race was Wyllie, who showed gains just outside the margin of error," said 0ptimus' founder and analyst Brian Stobie.  "We view this is a backlash to the two highly negative campaigns saturating Florida airwaves, particularly from those in our modeled undecided voter universes, who seem to be leading this trend toward Wyllie."

If that's the case, Scott's people might have figured it out first. They've gone up with two strong positive spots (if you include Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera's direct-to-camera commercial, it's three). Crist, who has trailed in fundraising and therefore ad-running, is slightly behind but he's also adding more positive spots as well.

Continue reading "0ptimus FL poll: Adrian Wyllie gaining at 13%; Charlie Crist, Rick Scott deadlocked 40-39%" »

October 02, 2014

In Fla's teetering-tottering governor's race, Charlie Crist regains footing

@MarcACaputo

After trailing in polls, Democrat Charlie Crist is marginally leading Gov. Rick Scott in two new surveys that show the governor’s race will be as close as they come.

The polls from SurveyUSA and a new Republican data-analysis firm named 0ptimus show Crist, respectively, ahead by 6 percentage points and 1 percentage point — leads that are both within the margins of error.

The apparent trend in Crist’s favor dovetails with his campaign’s decision to ramp up its ad spending statewide to counteract the effectiveness of Scott’s longer and larger media blitz.

As of Friday, Scott still led Crist in overall spending, dropping $41 million to the Democrat’s $16.7 million on current and future ads.

“The story here is these guys have been spending a ton of money,” said Scott Tranter, an analyst with Washington-based 0ptimus. “But the only guy who’s seeing any movement here is Charlie Crist.”

The 0ptimus poll of 3,356 likely voters — that ended Sunday — showed Crist garnering 41.1 percent of the vote to Scott’s 40.1 percent. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie is backed by 11.1 percent.

More here

October 01, 2014

SurveyUSA/WFLA poll: Crist keeps climbing, leads Scott 46-40%

@MarcACaputo

Democrat Charlie Crist is nursing a slight 46-40 percent lead over Gov. Rick Scott in SurveyUSA's latest poll for WFLA-TV.

Crist's 6 percentage-point lead isn't so big because the likely-voter poll's error margin is 4.1 percent.

But it ain't the topline, it's the trend to note. And for the past two weeks, the momentum has been for Crist: a net 9 percentage point shift since last week and, compared to the poll released Sept. 9, an 11-point shift.

The movement in Crist's direction corresponds with Crist's increasing ad buys. Scott has been pumping more money into TV as well, but he hadn't been as closely answered as he is now.

Overall, the poll track in the governor's race indicates one clear takeaway: the race is close and prone to minor shifts.

A caveat about SurveyUSA's track: It has had some inexplicable shifts and the independent respondents in the poll have shifted the most. Two weeks ago, Scott led among independents by 13. Now Crist leads them by 8 -- a 21-point shift.

Also, compared to other polls, SurveyUSA is finding far lower support for Florida's medical-marijuana initiative: 52-33 percent. It takes 60 percent of the vote to approve a constitutional amendment in Florida. The average of other major polls puts support at 64 percent.

A bonus for all you poll unskewers: Don't bother. This poll reflects a Republican-Democrat-Independent respondent sample of 40-40-19 percent (numbers are rounded). Blending the 2006 and 2010 turnout rates by party ID, it would likely be a better if the poll had a 38-36-26 percent breakdown. But after rejiggering the poll based on that GOP+2 model, Crist still leads, by about 5 percentage points instead of 6.

Here's more from SurveyUSA and here's what the track looks like as of now

SurveyUSA 0930 gov race

September 30, 2014

FL Chamber poll: Rick Scott leads Crist 43-39 percent

A press release from the Rick Scott-backing Florida Chamber:

ORLANDO, Fla. (September 29, 2014) – According to the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) poll released today at the Future of Florida Forum in Orlando, likely voters continue to have a more positive view of the future and favor Governor Rick Scott in the state’s top leadership race. Jobs and the economy (29 percent) continue to be the number one issue among voters, followed by education (19 percent) and healthcare (6 percent).

“Florida voters are smart. They continue recognizing Governor Scott is doing what he said he would do,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of the Florida Chamber Political Institute. “More than 640,000 private-sector jobs have been created since December 2010, our education initiatives are working, and Florida families and small businesses continue to see opportunities for growth. The fact that a majority of polls throughout the last six to eight weeks show voters continuing to prefer Rick Scott over other candidates is a sign that his numbers are solid.”

Governor Rick Scott’s job approval rating continues to remain positive, with 49 percent of likely voters approving of the job he’s doing. At the same time, gubernatorial candidate and trial lawyer Charlie Crist’s favorability continues to drop – 39 percent favorable and 50 percent unfavorable.

“I believe a major reason Charlie Crist is visibly losing support is because voters are beginning to realize that Rick Scott’s focus on jobs is working and that Florida continues to move in the right direction,” said Mark Wilson, President and CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

In head-to-head matchups:

  • Governor’s Race, Rick Scott vs. Charlie Crist vs. Adrian Wyllie: Scott earns 43 percent, Crist gets 39 percent and Libertarian Adrain Wyllie earns 4 percent. Five percent say they will vote for one of the other candidates and 7 percent are firmly undecided.
  • Attorney General Race, Pam Bondi vs. George Sheldon: Bondi earns 48 percent to Sheldon 31 percent.
  • CFO Race, Jeff Atwater vs. William Rankin: Atwater leads with 43 percent to Rankin’s 27 percent.
  • Agriculture Commissioner Race, Adam Putnam vs. Thaddeus Hamilton: Putnam earns 41 percent to Hamilton at 29 percent.

Of the 813 Florida likely voters polled, 29 percent rank job creation and the economy as their top issues. Additional polling data shows:

  • For six straight months, a plurality of voters continue to believe the Sunshine State is headed in the right direction – 43 percent based on Florida Chamber polling conducted in February, June and August 2014.
  • Amendment 1 continues to show strong support: 75 percent support while 14 percent oppose.
  • Amendment 2 has fallen below the 60 percent threshold again; this amendment is losing support. Fifty-nine percent support and 35 percent oppose.
  • Amendment 3 has 27 percent support and 21 percent opposition. 53 percent of voters are undecided.

On the national level, President Obama’s job approval rating remains upside down as 41 percent approved and 54 percent disapprove. 

The poll, conducted on September 18-21, 2014 during live telephone interviews of likely voters, has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Please note:  The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber Political Institute are consistently drawn from likely voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters.  Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting this November.

###

Established in 1916 as Florida’s first statewide business advocacy organization, the Florida Chamber of Commerce is the voice of business and the state’s largest federation of employers, chambers of commerce and associations aggressively representing small and large businesses from every industry and every region. The Florida Chamber works within all branches of government to affect those changes set forth in the annual Florida Business Agenda, and which are seen as crucial to secure Florida’s future. The Florida Chamber works closely with its Florida Political Operations and the Florida Chamber Foundation. Visit www.FLChamber.com for more information.
136 South Bronough Street, Tallahassee, FL 32301

September 24, 2014

Q-poll trend shows how Rick Scott's negative ads have dragged Charlie Crist down

@MarcACaputo

Today's Quinnipiac Poll showing Gov. Rick Scott leading Democrat Charlie Crist for the first time in the survey's history is a testament to the Republican's ads and their go-for-the-throat negative messaging.

But don't just look at Scott's inside-the-error margin lead of 2 percentage points (44-42 percent). Check out the favorability of both men since the summer of 2010 in Quinnipiac's surveys.

Q poll favorabilities

Under a sustained assault from Scott, Crist's favorability index from last summer until now has plummeted 25 points to -8 today (that is, in today's poll 49 percent have a negative impression of Crist while 41 percent have a positive impression). But Scott's favorability index has only notched down 4 points to -6 (42 percent see him favorably, 48 percent unfavorably).

The damage Scott has done to Crist is starkly illustrated when you examine their positions in 2010.

Four years ago, Crist was an embattled incumbent who switched parties from Republican to independent in a failed bid to top Republican Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate race in which the then-governor wound up dividing the liberal vote because Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek of Miami stayed in the race.

Still, even with the party-switching and the bad economy at the time, Florida voters still liked Crist in the Quinnipiac Poll, with 49 percent favoring him and 35 percent disfavoring him in June 2010. That means his favorability index was +14. It inched up to +20 for Crist, even though he lost the election.

Scott, however, was in the midst of a bruising GOP primary where Attorney General Bill McCollum played up the newcomer's history with Columbia/HCA, which was socked with a record $1.7 billion Medicare fraud fine.

Only 29 percent favored Scott and 30 percent disfavored him in June 2010, giving him an index of -1. It grew to -12 before the election, where he barely squeaked by. In his first two months in office, Scott earned his only positive index, +4. Then, after proposing mammoth cuts to schools, scuttling high-speed rail and clashing with fellow Republicans in the Legislature, Scott's ratings fell and his index has been negative ever since.

By June of 2013, Scott was in horrible shape. His favorability index was -2 and Crist's was +17. Crist led him by 10 percentage points: 47-37 percent.

There was really only one sure route for Scott to take: Going negative.

Once Crist announced officially in November, Scott greeted him with a $1 million negative ad buy. In total, Scott has spent at least $36 million on TV ads, and the overwhelming number of them has been negative. 

And it has worked.

After holding his fire in spring and then starting to shoot back in July, Crist is now starting to heavily fire on air as well. In one respect, because the race is close to tied, Crist is in relatively good shape after having been savaged for so long on TV. We're $50 million into the spending, and much more is to come.

But it's clear Crist has lost, at least temporarily, his greatest asset: His likability. And by fighting fire with fire, Crist runs the risk of keeping it that way because mudslinging costs the mudslinger as well. It also depresses the electorate. And the smaller the electorate, the more Republican-leaning it generally becomes -- especially in a midterm.

Crist has campaigned recently with the man from Hope, Bill Clinton, and his campaign is loaded with loyalists of the self-styled Hope-and-Change president, Barack Obama. But right now, there's not much hope coming from Crist. 

September 22, 2014

NextGen Climate: FL poll shows ads are hurting Rick Scott, helping Charlie Crist

@MarcACaputo

NextGen Climate's five TV ads bashing Florida Gov. Rick Scott's environmental record have hurt the Republican and, as a result, given an otherwise-outgunned Charlie Crist more of a fighting chance this election season, according to a polling memo from the environmental group.

In a head-to-head matchup, Crist leads Scott 46-43 percent. With Libertarian Adrian Wyllie in the race, Scott is up 42-41 percent. Both leads are inside the error margins of the poll of 600 likely Florida voters conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats and liberals.

Pollster Geoff Garin says, compared to a survey taken in July, "Scott’s standing has eroded significantly" in the three media markets where voters have seen at least $1.8 million worth of ads that focus on Scott’s ties to Duke Energy, the sugar lobby and an Everglades oil-drilling outfit.

"Scott’s personal negatives increased 11 points in Ft. Myers (from 30% to 41%), and four points in Tampa (from 42% to 46%) and West Palm Beach (from 49% to 53%). His net job approval rating dropped 11 points in West Palm Beach (-6 to -17), six points in Tampa (from +1 to -5), and five points in Ft. Myers (from +27 to +22)," the polling memo says.

"As a result, the gubernatorial trial heat has also shifted toward Crist in all three markets. Since early July, Crist has taken over the lead in Tampa, going from a three-point deficit to a two-point lead; he has expanded his lead form three points to 12 points in West Palm Beach; and he has reduced Scott’s lead in the Republican stronghold of Ft. Myers from 28 points to just 19 points."

NextGen, run by billionaire Tom Steyer, isn't just running commercials. It's organizing on the ground as well and says it has opened 17 offices across Florida, knocked on 158,000 doors and made about 35,000 calls to donors.

It's not as if Crist's campaign is doing nothing, either. It began advertising heavily in July, when Garin's baseline survey was taken, and has since placed or run about $14 million in ads. Scott has run $35 million since March.

Democrats were abuzz about Steyer pumping as much as $10 million in the race, with $5 million on ads. But the rate of ad spending appears to have slowed and its unclear if that's a sign of things to come, a pause or a blip in the data.

A note about the poll, which oversampled in the three media markets: the toplines look similar to other surveys when it comes to Democratic and Republican support for the candidates, but Crist's 59-26 percent lead among independents is an outlier. Crist loses 10 points with Wyllie in the race, who makes the contest essentially dead even. It's another sign that Wyllie might ultimately help Scott and hurt Crist, who ran as an independent in 2010.

Here's the whole memo:  Download NGC FL Poll Findings - Sept 2014[1] (1)