December 04, 2015

December 02, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Marco Rubio moves up nationally, behind Donald Trump

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio has climbed to second place nationally, behind only Donald Trump, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The survey shows Trump's enduring lead in the 2016 Republican presidential field. He garnered 27 percent support, followed by Rubio (17 percent), Ben Carson and Ted Cruz (16 percent each). No other candidate made it to the double digits; the next most-popular contender was Jeb Bush with 5 percent support.

With an error margin of 3.8 percentage point, the results show Rubio statistically tied with Carson and Cruz. But the Florida senator is still 3 percentage points higher than he was in the last Quinnipiac poll a month ago. It's also a drop for Carson, who last month was in a statistical tie with Trump. 

"It doesn't seem to matter what he says or who he offends, whether the facts are contested or the 'political correctness' is challenged, Donald Trump seems to be wearing Kevlar," Tim Malloy, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement. "Dr. Ben Carson, moving to center stage just one month ago, now needs some CPR. The Doctor sinks. The Donald soars. The GOP, 11 months from the election, has to be thinking, 'This could be the guy.'"

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton grew her lead over Bernie Sanders and is now ahead of him 60-30 percent, the poll shows, compared to 53-35 percent in November. Martin O'Malley came in at 2 percent.

In general-election match-ups, Clinton and Sanders beat all the top Republicans.

"Secretary Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders have to be hoping Trump is the GOP's guy," Malloy said.

November 23, 2015

Suffolk poll: Marco Rubio in second place in New Hampshire

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio is in second place among Republican primary voters in new Hampshire, according to a new poll by Suffolk University and the Boston Globe.

Rubio still only has half the support of frontrunner Donald Trump, the poll shows: 11 percent compared to Trump's 22 percent. But the Florida senator has more support than other GOP establishment candidates who could challenge Trump. And Rubio remains well-liked by poll respondents: 64 percent gave him a favorable rating and 22 percent an unfavorable one, the best numbers in the field.

"Donald Trump's loyal 22 percent goes a long way in New Hampshire," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement. "As long as the remaining 78 percent is split relatively evenly among the six or seven major contenders, we're getting close to 'Trump-mate' in the Granite State."

The other top candidates were Ben Carson (10 percent), Ted Cruz and John Kasich (9 percent each), and Jeb Bush (8 percent).

Last time Suffolk polled the New Hampshire field, in June, Bush was in first place, followed by Trump.

November 18, 2015

FAU poll: Jeb Bush fades to 5th in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Jeb Bush's popularity continues to drop in his home state, according to a new robopoll by Florida Atlantic University that shows the former Florida governor in single digits and in fifth place among his Republican presidential rivals.

Bush trails Donald Trump, who holds a comfortable lead in the field with 36 percent. The lineup after Trump? Marco Rubio (18 percent), Ben Carson (15 percent) and Ted Cruz (10 percent). Bush garnered 9 percent support -- half of Rubio's and a quarter of Trump's.

"Despite conjecture that Donald Trump has plateaued, his support in Florida remains very strong and could be growing," Kevin Wagner, associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative, said in a statement.

The poll's error margin is 5.2 percentage points, which means Bush is effectively tied with Cruz and perhaps not that far removed from Carson. Bush's campaign has acknowledged the bad polls but insisted Bush's budget cuts and revamped approach -- focusing more on early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire -- will eventually push his numbers back up.

FAU, which is based in Boca Raton, is relative newcomer to the state's presidential polling scene. In its last presidential poll in September, it found Trump in first place, followed by Rubio, Bush, Carson and Carly Fiorina.

Read the full poll:

here.

November 10, 2015

McClatchy poll: The more voters see Marco Rubio, the more they like him

via @LightmanDavid @anitakumar01

WASHINGTON -- Ben Carson, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have something going for them every time they’re on stage or on TV.

The more Republicans hear about the three presidential contenders, the more they like them, a new McClatchy-Marist Poll finds.

That’s crucial at this stage of the nominating process since Carson, a retired neurosurgeon; Rubio, a freshman senator from Florida; and Cruz, a freshman senator from Texas, are still largely unknown to most voters.

They'll all be in the spotlight Tuesday as Republicans debate for the fourth time, and they’re all well-positioned to bolster their status as top-tier candidates. Or let curious Republicans down.

“It’s huge,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducts the survey, said of the early impressions. “This is an electorate unusually attentive that’s watching these debates.”

On the opposite end: Jeb Bush. As he struggles to regain support for his once high-flying campaign, Republicans say the more they see him, the less they like him.

More here.

November 04, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Jeb Bush's unfavorables top presidential field

@PatriciaMazzei

No candidate has a more negative rating in the latest national poll by Quinnipiac University than former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose popularity has tanked in a spate of recent surveys.

The Quinnipiac poll shows 25 percent of respondents have a favorable view of Bush, while 58 percent have an unfavorable view. That's worse than Donald Trump (37-56 percent) and Hillary Clinton (42-52 percent).

Of course, Trump and Clinton sit atop the poll despite being more disliked than liked. But that's not the case for Bush.

Clinton commands the Democratic side, ahead of Bernie Sanders 53-35 percent.

On the Republican side, Trump leads in the poll with 24 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 23 percent, a statistical tie given the poll's error margin of 2.9 percentage points. Marco Rubio garnered 14 percent support, followed by Ted Cruz's 13 percent (another tie). 

Bush drew 4 percent. That's fifth place -- in a statistical tie with Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and John Kasich (all at 3 percent) and Rand Paul (2 percent). 

Two other polls released Tuesday and Wednesday are also troubling for Bush.

A Florida robopoll by SurveyUSA for Bay News 9 in Tampa found Bush in fifth place in his home state for the first time, behind Trump (37 percent), Carson (17 percent), Rubio (16 percent) and Cruz (10 percent). Bush drew 7 percent.

And a New Hampshire poll conducted for the WBUR public radio station in Boston found Bush dropped 2 percentage points to 7 percent in the Granite State since September, despite airing a slew of TV ads. Rubio, on the other hand, climbed 9 points to 11 percent, catapulting him to third place behind Trump and Carson. Bush is in sixth in a state considered a must-win for his campaign.

Tim Miller, Bush's spokesman, said on Twitter earlier this week that the campaign expects a poor showing in polls given that the candidate is trying to reboot.

"Comebacks take time," Miller wrote, "we recognize and are prepared for that."

November 02, 2015

PPP poll: Jeb Bush 'having a rough time in Iowa'

@PatriciaMazzei

The latest Iowa poll by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows Jeb Bush tied for sixth place with many Republican respondents still holding an unfavorable view of him.

Donald Trump leads the field with 22 percent, followed by Ben Carson (21 percent), Ted Cruz (14 percent), Marco Rubio (10 percent), Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal (each at 6 percent) and Bush and Carly Fiorina (5 percent).

 Here's how the pollster summarized Bush's position:

Jeb Bush is having a rough time in Iowa. Only 30% of GOP voters see him favorably to 43% with a negative opinion, giving him the highest unfavorable rating of any of the candidates in Iowa. Among those who describe themselves as 'very conservative,' just 25% see Bush favorably to 53% who have a negative view. One measure of how Bush-resistant GOP voters are is that in a head to head with Trump he trails 55/37. By comparison Trump loses by double digits when matched up directly with Rubi0 (51/40), Cruz (53/36), or Carson (55/35).

Patience, preached Bush spokesman Tim Miller:

Saint Leo poll: Legislature mishandled redistricting, supports solar, and guns on campus

A majority of Florida voters say that the Florida Legislature "handled redistricting very poorly,'' according to a new statewide poll by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute.

While 64 percent surveyed expressed displeasure with the way state lawmakers have handled the once-a-decade redrawing of political boundaries., nearly 69 percent of the likely voters said they were unhappy with lawmakers. The legislature is on its third special session on redistricting since first enacting the plans in 2012 and, during that time,it has spent $11 million in taxpayer money defending its efforts.

The poll of 521 Floridians conducted Oct. 17-22, 2015, also asked people who should be responsible for redistricting in the future. The most popular answers were:

  • 28.7 percent -- an independent commission appointed by Democrats and Republicans.
  • 28.7 percent -- were unsure. 
  • 14.3 percent -- keep it with the Florida Legislature.
  • 13.9 percent -- an commission appointed by the governor.
  • 7.1 percent -- Florida judiciary and staff.

The survey also found that 50 percent of the public supports support allowing faculty, staff, and administrators to carry guns on the campuses of state colleges and universities; 78 percent support allowing people with solar panels be allowed to sell it back to the grid and 45 percent support fracking for natural gas in Florida, compared to 37 percent who disagree.

More here

Statement

Florida- Agree

 

Florida –Disagree

Florida Likely Voters – Agree

Florida Likely Voters –Disagree

The Florida Legislature has handled recent redistricting very poorly                               

64.0%

12.1%

68.7%

11.2%

Numerical base =

521

521

409

409

 

Monmouth poll: Marco Rubio moves up in New Hampshire

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio has moved up to third place in New Hampshire, behind Donald Trump and Ben Carson, according to a new poll released Monday by Monmouth University.

Trump drew 26 percent support, ahead of Carson's 16 percent and Rubio's 13 percent, triple what it was in Monmouth's September poll. The top three were followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 11 percent, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 9 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7 percent (that's unchanged from September, despite more his campaign's spending more than $6 million on TV ads). 

Monmouth polled 410 likely GOP primary voters. The survey's error margin is 4.8 percent.

"Marco Rubio's standout performance in the last debate seems to have paid dividends in a contest that was supposed to be dominated by his former mentor Jeb Bush," Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said in a statement. "Rubio's new-found support seems to be a little softer than for other candidates at the front of the pack, but it is not particularly solid for anybody."

Another poll released Monday -- this time of Florida voters and by the Viewpoint Florida organization -- shows Rubio (16 percent) trailing Trump (27 percent), with Carson in third place (15 percent) and Bush tied for fourth with Cruz (12 percent). The poll's most interesting finding is that Bush's voters would seem to move to Rubio if the former Florida governor were the exit the race, whereas Rubio's voters would split among Bush, Carson and Cruz.

The Viewpoint robopoll surveyed 2,047 registered Republicans in English and Spanish using an automated telephone system. It has an error margin of 2.2 percent. Pollster Randy Nielsen disclosed to Politico that he's a Rubio supporter.

Both the New Hampshire and Florida polls were conducted after last week's primary debate in which Rubio bested Bush in an exchange over Rubio's poor Senate attendance record.

An earlier version of this post said Rubio's New Hampshire support had doubled, when in fact it had tripled.

October 26, 2015

UPDATED AP poll: Jeb Bush, followed by Marco Rubio, fare best in GOP presidential field among Hispanics

From the Associated Press:

NEWARK, N.J. -- Republican front-runner Donald Trump is widely unpopular among the nation's Hispanics, a new AP-GfK poll finds, challenging the billionaire's oft-repeated assertion that he will win the Hispanic vote if he becomes his party's nominee.

The survey finds many of the Republican candidates running for president would probably struggle to win significant support among Hispanics in a general election. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are their favorites, but even they are a hard sell, the poll suggests.

Even so, most in the field are unknown to enough Hispanics that they might have a shot at proving themselves.

That's a particular struggle for Trump, who began his campaign for president by calling some immigrants from Mexico rapists and has vowed to deport all of the estimated 11 million people living in the country illegally if he is elected president. Trump is viewed unfavorably by 72 percent of Hispanics, with 6 in 10 having a very unfavorable opinion of him, the AP-GfK poll finds. Only 11 percent view him favorably.

[...]

Among Trump's rivals, Bush, who speaks fluent Spanish and married a Mexican-born woman, is viewed most favorably by Hispanics, with 26 percent giving the former Florida governor a positive rating. Rubio, a Florida senator and Cuban-American, comes in second, with 23 percent viewing him favorably.

Still, both Bush and Rubio are viewed unfavorably by more than one-third of Hispanics polled.

More here.

UPDATE: A note of caution about this poll, undisclosed in the AP story: The Hispanic results appear to be based off a larger poll of 1,027 respondents. But only 15 percent -- about 154 people -- of those respondents were Hispanic, according to the demographics of the poll. That would be a far smaller sample and a much larger (and unspecified) margin of error. So reader, beware.