November 10, 2015

McClatchy poll: The more voters see Marco Rubio, the more they like him

via @LightmanDavid @anitakumar01

WASHINGTON -- Ben Carson, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have something going for them every time they’re on stage or on TV.

The more Republicans hear about the three presidential contenders, the more they like them, a new McClatchy-Marist Poll finds.

That’s crucial at this stage of the nominating process since Carson, a retired neurosurgeon; Rubio, a freshman senator from Florida; and Cruz, a freshman senator from Texas, are still largely unknown to most voters.

They'll all be in the spotlight Tuesday as Republicans debate for the fourth time, and they’re all well-positioned to bolster their status as top-tier candidates. Or let curious Republicans down.

“It’s huge,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducts the survey, said of the early impressions. “This is an electorate unusually attentive that’s watching these debates.”

On the opposite end: Jeb Bush. As he struggles to regain support for his once high-flying campaign, Republicans say the more they see him, the less they like him.

More here.

November 04, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Jeb Bush's unfavorables top presidential field

@PatriciaMazzei

No candidate has a more negative rating in the latest national poll by Quinnipiac University than former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose popularity has tanked in a spate of recent surveys.

The Quinnipiac poll shows 25 percent of respondents have a favorable view of Bush, while 58 percent have an unfavorable view. That's worse than Donald Trump (37-56 percent) and Hillary Clinton (42-52 percent).

Of course, Trump and Clinton sit atop the poll despite being more disliked than liked. But that's not the case for Bush.

Clinton commands the Democratic side, ahead of Bernie Sanders 53-35 percent.

On the Republican side, Trump leads in the poll with 24 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 23 percent, a statistical tie given the poll's error margin of 2.9 percentage points. Marco Rubio garnered 14 percent support, followed by Ted Cruz's 13 percent (another tie). 

Bush drew 4 percent. That's fifth place -- in a statistical tie with Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and John Kasich (all at 3 percent) and Rand Paul (2 percent). 

Two other polls released Tuesday and Wednesday are also troubling for Bush.

A Florida robopoll by SurveyUSA for Bay News 9 in Tampa found Bush in fifth place in his home state for the first time, behind Trump (37 percent), Carson (17 percent), Rubio (16 percent) and Cruz (10 percent). Bush drew 7 percent.

And a New Hampshire poll conducted for the WBUR public radio station in Boston found Bush dropped 2 percentage points to 7 percent in the Granite State since September, despite airing a slew of TV ads. Rubio, on the other hand, climbed 9 points to 11 percent, catapulting him to third place behind Trump and Carson. Bush is in sixth in a state considered a must-win for his campaign.

Tim Miller, Bush's spokesman, said on Twitter earlier this week that the campaign expects a poor showing in polls given that the candidate is trying to reboot.

"Comebacks take time," Miller wrote, "we recognize and are prepared for that."

November 02, 2015

PPP poll: Jeb Bush 'having a rough time in Iowa'

@PatriciaMazzei

The latest Iowa poll by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows Jeb Bush tied for sixth place with many Republican respondents still holding an unfavorable view of him.

Donald Trump leads the field with 22 percent, followed by Ben Carson (21 percent), Ted Cruz (14 percent), Marco Rubio (10 percent), Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal (each at 6 percent) and Bush and Carly Fiorina (5 percent).

 Here's how the pollster summarized Bush's position:

Jeb Bush is having a rough time in Iowa. Only 30% of GOP voters see him favorably to 43% with a negative opinion, giving him the highest unfavorable rating of any of the candidates in Iowa. Among those who describe themselves as 'very conservative,' just 25% see Bush favorably to 53% who have a negative view. One measure of how Bush-resistant GOP voters are is that in a head to head with Trump he trails 55/37. By comparison Trump loses by double digits when matched up directly with Rubi0 (51/40), Cruz (53/36), or Carson (55/35).

Patience, preached Bush spokesman Tim Miller:

Saint Leo poll: Legislature mishandled redistricting, supports solar, and guns on campus

A majority of Florida voters say that the Florida Legislature "handled redistricting very poorly,'' according to a new statewide poll by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute.

While 64 percent surveyed expressed displeasure with the way state lawmakers have handled the once-a-decade redrawing of political boundaries., nearly 69 percent of the likely voters said they were unhappy with lawmakers. The legislature is on its third special session on redistricting since first enacting the plans in 2012 and, during that time,it has spent $11 million in taxpayer money defending its efforts.

The poll of 521 Floridians conducted Oct. 17-22, 2015, also asked people who should be responsible for redistricting in the future. The most popular answers were:

  • 28.7 percent -- an independent commission appointed by Democrats and Republicans.
  • 28.7 percent -- were unsure. 
  • 14.3 percent -- keep it with the Florida Legislature.
  • 13.9 percent -- an commission appointed by the governor.
  • 7.1 percent -- Florida judiciary and staff.

The survey also found that 50 percent of the public supports support allowing faculty, staff, and administrators to carry guns on the campuses of state colleges and universities; 78 percent support allowing people with solar panels be allowed to sell it back to the grid and 45 percent support fracking for natural gas in Florida, compared to 37 percent who disagree.

More here

Statement

Florida- Agree

 

Florida –Disagree

Florida Likely Voters – Agree

Florida Likely Voters –Disagree

The Florida Legislature has handled recent redistricting very poorly                               

64.0%

12.1%

68.7%

11.2%

Numerical base =

521

521

409

409

 

Monmouth poll: Marco Rubio moves up in New Hampshire

@PatriciaMazzei

Marco Rubio has moved up to third place in New Hampshire, behind Donald Trump and Ben Carson, according to a new poll released Monday by Monmouth University.

Trump drew 26 percent support, ahead of Carson's 16 percent and Rubio's 13 percent, triple what it was in Monmouth's September poll. The top three were followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 11 percent, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 9 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7 percent (that's unchanged from September, despite more his campaign's spending more than $6 million on TV ads). 

Monmouth polled 410 likely GOP primary voters. The survey's error margin is 4.8 percent.

"Marco Rubio's standout performance in the last debate seems to have paid dividends in a contest that was supposed to be dominated by his former mentor Jeb Bush," Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said in a statement. "Rubio's new-found support seems to be a little softer than for other candidates at the front of the pack, but it is not particularly solid for anybody."

Another poll released Monday -- this time of Florida voters and by the Viewpoint Florida organization -- shows Rubio (16 percent) trailing Trump (27 percent), with Carson in third place (15 percent) and Bush tied for fourth with Cruz (12 percent). The poll's most interesting finding is that Bush's voters would seem to move to Rubio if the former Florida governor were the exit the race, whereas Rubio's voters would split among Bush, Carson and Cruz.

The Viewpoint robopoll surveyed 2,047 registered Republicans in English and Spanish using an automated telephone system. It has an error margin of 2.2 percent. Pollster Randy Nielsen disclosed to Politico that he's a Rubio supporter.

Both the New Hampshire and Florida polls were conducted after last week's primary debate in which Rubio bested Bush in an exchange over Rubio's poor Senate attendance record.

An earlier version of this post said Rubio's New Hampshire support had doubled, when in fact it had tripled.

October 26, 2015

UPDATED AP poll: Jeb Bush, followed by Marco Rubio, fare best in GOP presidential field among Hispanics

From the Associated Press:

NEWARK, N.J. -- Republican front-runner Donald Trump is widely unpopular among the nation's Hispanics, a new AP-GfK poll finds, challenging the billionaire's oft-repeated assertion that he will win the Hispanic vote if he becomes his party's nominee.

The survey finds many of the Republican candidates running for president would probably struggle to win significant support among Hispanics in a general election. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are their favorites, but even they are a hard sell, the poll suggests.

Even so, most in the field are unknown to enough Hispanics that they might have a shot at proving themselves.

That's a particular struggle for Trump, who began his campaign for president by calling some immigrants from Mexico rapists and has vowed to deport all of the estimated 11 million people living in the country illegally if he is elected president. Trump is viewed unfavorably by 72 percent of Hispanics, with 6 in 10 having a very unfavorable opinion of him, the AP-GfK poll finds. Only 11 percent view him favorably.

[...]

Among Trump's rivals, Bush, who speaks fluent Spanish and married a Mexican-born woman, is viewed most favorably by Hispanics, with 26 percent giving the former Florida governor a positive rating. Rubio, a Florida senator and Cuban-American, comes in second, with 23 percent viewing him favorably.

Still, both Bush and Rubio are viewed unfavorably by more than one-third of Hispanics polled.

More here.

UPDATE: A note of caution about this poll, undisclosed in the AP story: The Hispanic results appear to be based off a larger poll of 1,027 respondents. But only 15 percent -- about 154 people -- of those respondents were Hispanic, according to the demographics of the poll. That would be a far smaller sample and a much larger (and unspecified) margin of error. So reader, beware.

October 22, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Marco Rubio moves to third place in Iowa as Ben Carson overtakes Donald Trump

via @learyreports

Marco Rubio is rising in Iowa, but not like Ben Carson who has overtaken Donald Trump there, according to a new Q poll.

Carson leads Trump 28 – 20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Rubio and 10 percent for Ted Cruz. In September, Trump led 27 percent to Carson’s 21 percent.

Jeb Bush is down at an alarming 5 percent, and tied for sixth place with Carly Fiorina.

Full poll results here.

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

October 19, 2015

University of North Florida poll: Jeb Bush drops to single digits in Florida

via @adamsmithtimes

An Oct. 8-13 University of North Florida statewide poll of Republican primary likely voters finds Donald Trump leading with 21.7 percent, followed by Ben Carson 19.3 percent, Marco Rubio in third with 14.9 percent and Jeb Bush at a distant fourth with 9 percent. Asked the name their second choice 20.1 percent said Rubio, 14.9 percent said Carson, 11.1 percent said Carly Fiorina, 10.2 percent said Bush, 6.2 percent Ted Cruz, and 6 percent Trump.

From a release:

Continue reading "University of North Florida poll: Jeb Bush drops to single digits in Florida" »

October 13, 2015

Survey: Floridians remained financially stressed; and most support diplomacy with Cuba

Florida voters remain financially stressed but don’t think they’re being overtaxed and are supportive of resuming diplomatic relations with Cuba, according to the latest USF-Nielsen Sunshine State Survey released Tuesday. 

The wide-ranging survey conducted July 30 through Aug. 16 found that 71 percent of all Floridians continue to feel the effects of the Great Recession and identify the economy and jobs as the issue that remains most important to them.  Download Sunshine State Survey 2015 2

But, in the second installment of the survey of 1,251 random adults, people identified the biggest threats to the state economy as loss of jobs, government waste and inefficiency – at both the state and local level – and undocumented residents and workers.

“What this release shows is that Floridians are still stressed economically,’’ said University of South Florida public affairs professor Susan MacManus, who directed the survey. “They are very much still looking somewhat judgmentally, and in a negative fashion, toward state and local leadership. And they are hopeful for attention to transportation and infrastructure.” 

Most people pointed to either investing in education and training or improving the state’s infrastructure – each with 23 percent – as the best way to improve the state’s job climate. Only 15 percent pointed to cutting or limiting taxes and regulations.

The survey shows that support for improving the state’s infrastructure, especially transportation, increased from 17 percent in 2014 to 23 percent this year, while support for cutting or limiting taxes and regulations dropped from 21 percent in 2014 to 15 percent in 2015.

"Along with population growth comes more congestion and longer commutes—which is at least a partial explanation for growing support for infrastructure improvements,'' she said. 

Continue reading "Survey: Floridians remained financially stressed; and most support diplomacy with Cuba" »

October 08, 2015

Quinnipiac poll: Florida voters back recreational marijuana, Dems lead in Senate race to replace Marco Rubio

A new poll shows that Florida voters back recreational marijuana and that Democrats are leading the U.S. Senate race however the poll omitted some candidates in that race.

The poll by Quinnipiac shows that Florida voters overall support legalizing personal marijuana use 51 – 45 percent with the highest support among young voters. And voters support legalizing medical marijuana 87 – 12 percent.

A question on the ballot last year to allow medical marijuana failed by about two points to achieve the 60 percent margin needed for a constitutional amendment. A similar question will likely appear on the ballot next year.

In the race to replace U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Jupiter leads Republican Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera of Miami 37 – 29 percent and tops U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, Ponte Vedra Beach, 37 – 30 percent. Democratic U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson of Orlando gets 35 percent to Lopez-Cantera’s 32 percent and leads DeSantis 37 – 31 percent.

The poll did not include Republican candidates U.S. Rep. David Jolly of Tampa or Todd Wilcox and did not ask Democratic voters to choose between Murphy and Grayson.

It also didn’t include potential candidates including Republican CFO Jeff Atwater and Democratic U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham.

Republican Gov. Rick Scott gets a negative 41 – 47 percent job approval rating, down from 45 – 44 percent in an Aug. 25 Quinnipiac University poll.

Voters approve 46 – 27 percent of the job Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson is doing and give Rubio a 52 – 36 percent job approval rating.

The survey was done between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5 and included 1,173 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.