May 03, 2016

Poll: Donald Trump would drive Miami Cubans away from GOP


Donald Trump is the catalyst who could force a decisive break between Miami-Dade County’s influential Cuban-American voters and the Republican Party, a new poll has found.

Local Cuban Americans dislike Trump so much — and are increasingly so accepting of renewed U.S.-Cuba ties pushed by Democratic President Barack Obama — that Trump’slikely presidential nomination might accentuate the voters’ political shift away from the GOP, according to the survey shared with the Miami Herald and conducted by Dario Moreno, a Coral Gables pollster and a Florida International University associate politics professor.

Thirty-seven percent of respondents supported Trump, a number that is still higher than the 31 percent who backed Clinton — but also “the lowest in history that any potential Republican candidate polls among this traditionally loyal demographic,” according to Moreno. He added that the results put likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton within “striking distance” of winning over the influential voting demographic. Trump won the March 15 Florida GOP primary in a rout.

“We’ve been seeing demographic changes in this community since 2004,” Moreno said, as younger voters of Cuban descent, and recent Cuban immigrants, have increasingly identified as Democrats or independents. “With Trump, the real danger is that he’s going to accelerate this realignment in Miami.”

Moreno is a Republican who has polled for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, though this poll was not conducted on either politician's behalf.

The pollster acknowledged his own bias against the Republican presidential front-runner: “I can’t vote for Trump,” Moreno said. “I’m not going to vote for Hillary, but I’m not going to vote for Trump.”

More here.

April 22, 2016

Hillary Clinton would trounce GOP among Florida Hispanics, poll says

via @learyreports

Hillary Clinton would easily win Florida’s growing Hispanic vote over Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, polling released Friday shows.

The America’s Voice poll shows Clinton taking 69 percent of the vote to Trump’s 18 percent.

Against Cruz, Clinton takes 58 percent of the vote compared with the Texan’s 36 percent.

Sixty-eight percent of Florida Hispanic voters say Trump’s immigration views make them less likely to vote Republican in November. That’s 10 percent lower than nationally, reflecting a strong Florida GOP base.

When asked about Trump’s pledge to deport illegal immigrants, 65 percent Florida Hispanics said that makes them much less likely to vote for Trump, again lower than the 80 percent nationally.

Florida Hispanics say immigration reform is a top concern, closely followed by jobs and the economy. Education and Health care follow.

America's Voice advocates for immigration reform and its pollsters are aligned with Clinton.

--ALEX LEARY, Tampa Bay Times

March 14, 2016

Quinnipiac poll: Donald Trump ahead of Marco Rubio 46-22% in Florida


Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio by a 2-1 margin -- 46-22 percent -- in Quinnipiac University's final poll ahead of Tuesday's Florida primary. They're followed by Ted Cruz with 14 percent and John Kasich with 10 percent.

The results are almost identical to Quinnipiac's survey last week, which had Trump ahead 45-22 percent.

"At least when it comes to this presidential primary, Florida might change its nickname from Sunshine State to Landslide State," Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director, said in a statement Monday. "Sen. Marco Rubio, who has staked his future on wining his home state, looks like he'll soon be toast. He trails GOP leader Donald Trump by more than 20 points with polling through Sunday night.

"There are very few examples of candidates making up that much ground in 24 hours."

The gap between Trump and Rubio has varied widely in recent surveys, though all show Rubio trailing -- in some cases by as little as 5 or 6 percentage points, and in others by more than 20 points, depending on the date and methodology. Quinnipiac polled 615 self-identified likely GOP voters Sunday; its survey has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

On the Democratic side in Florida, Hillary Clinton is way ahead of Bernie Sanders, by 60-34 percent with an error margin of 4.3 points.

March 13, 2016

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Ted Cruz catches up to still-trailing Marco Rubio in Florida


Bad news for Marco Rubio two days before Florida's primary election: He's way behind Donald Trump in home state -- and now Ted Cruz is essentially tied with the Florida senator for second place.

Trump leads with 43 percent, followed by Rubio with 22 percent and Cruz with 21 percent, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist University poll released Sunday. John Kasich rounds out the field with 9 percent.

The survey of 511 likely GOP voters, conducted March 4-10, has an error margin of 4.3 percentage point.

It's the third poll in a day to find Rubio about 20 points behind Trump and in a statistical tie with Cruz, though each survey was conducted using a different methodology. We won't know until Tuesday's results are in which of those methods, if any -- or another that screens respondents based on their past voter history -- will prove to be most accurate.

A CBS/YouGov Internet poll also released Sunday had Trump at 44 percent, Cruz at 24 percent, Rubio at 21 percent and Kasich at 9 percent (error margin: 4.8 points). A Florida Atlantic University robo-poll released Saturday had Trump at 44 percent, Rubio and Cruz at 21 percent and Kasich at 9 percent (error margin: 3.3 points).

"Let me just tell you, on Wednesday morning, some pollsters somewhere are going to ahve to explain why they're so wrong -- not just about Florida, but multiple places," Rubio told ABC News' This Week Sunday morning.

In the Democratic race, the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll showed Hillary Clinton trouncing Bernie Sanders 61-34 percent, with an error margin of 4.4 percentage points.

This post has been updated.

March 10, 2016

Florida poll: Marco Rubio should leave presidential race if he loses home state


Florida Republicans agree Marco Rubio must win his home state to remain in the presidential race.

Fifty-nine percent think Rubio should drop out if he loses Tuesday's primary, according to a new Washington Post-Univision poll conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International and the Tarrance Group.

Like other polls released over the past two days, the survey found Rubio lagging behind Donald Trump, 38-31 percent, followed by Ted Cruz (19 percent) and John Kasich (4 percent). The poll of 450 likely Republican voters was conducted in English and Spanish from March 2-5 and has an error margin of 4.6 percentage points.

Rubio fares much better than Trump among Hispanics, the poll found. Compared to Rubio and Cruz, Trump is the only candidate Hispanic Republicans in Florida view more unfavorably (59 percent) than favorably (36 percent). And if were up to Hispanics alone, Rubio would be leading the race with 49 percent support, followed by Cruz with 21 percent and Trump with 19 percent. The Florida senator's support is rooted with Cuban-Americans, according to the poll, which has a larger error margin -- 7.6 percentage points -- for the smaller Hispanic sample.

March 09, 2016

Associated Industries of Florida poll: ‘Surge’ voters likely benefiting Donald Trump in race against Marco Rubio


Donald Trump holds a 33-27 percent lead over Marco Rubio in Florida, according to an Associated Industries of Florida poll, but the gap between the two Republican presidential candidates may be wider.

Ryan Tyson, AIF’s political guru, found that the primary is attracting new voters – ones who haven’t cast ballots in prior GOP elections and may be missed by surveys that identify Republicans based on their voter history. Those polls have generally shown a tighter Trump-Rubio race than the ones that allow respondents to self-identify as Republicans, capturing independents and Democrats prohibited from participating in Florida’s closed primary.

Of the 772,000 Republicans who have already voted, 17 percent are new voters, Tyson found. And that likely means Rubio trails Trump by more than the 6 percentage points captured in AIF’s poll, which was conducted by Tel Opinion Research.

“These voters missed the 2012 Presidential primary, and the regular 2012 & 2014 Republican primaries, but for whatever reason they are casting ballots in this election,” Tyson wrote in a memo outlining the poll results, which were first reported by Politico. “We can logically conclude these are similar surge voters as [we] have seen in other states this cycle. These voters will likely not be friendly to the establishment-favored candidates.”

Ted Cruz drew 16 percent support in the AIF poll, and John Kasich drew 12 percent.

The survey of 631 likely Republican voters was conducted Sunday and Monday, before Rubio came last in four more nominating contests. It was an error margin of 4 percentage points.

Florida poll: Donald Trump 42%, Marco Rubio 32%


Another day, another Florida poll showing Marco Rubio still behind in the Republican presidential field.

Rubio trails Donald Trump 42-32 percent in a private poll conducted by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling for Miami political consultant Christian Ulvert. Far behind them are Ted Cruz with 14 percent and John Kasich with 8 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

The survey also shows Rubio narrowly behind Trump, 48-45 percent, in a potential one-on-one match-up -- an unrealistic scenario, given that Cruz and Kasich remain in the race, and Cruz campaigned in Florida Tuesday.

“It’s clear that Marco Rubio continues to struggle with gaining traction in his home state,” Ulvert said in a statement after he shared the poll results with the Miami Herald. “Marco Rubio has been an absent U.S. Senator and his shortcomings are coming home to roost. He says it’s all about Florida and whoever wins Florida will be the Republican nominee -- and with less than a week until Primary Election Day, all signs point to a Donald Trump nomination.”

Seventeen percent of respondents said they might change their mind before next Tuesday’s primary.

The survey, which has an error margin of 3.3 percentage points, was conducted March 7-8 and included 904 likely Republican voters, as identified through the Florida voter file showing their participating in past elections. Those polls have shown a tighter race than polls that ask voters to self-identify as Republicans. This survey, however, points to a widening gap between Trump and Rubio: He trailed by 5 percentage points in a poll conducted for Associated Industries of Florida last week and by 8 percentage points in a poll conducted by Monmouth University released week.

Quinnipiac poll: Donald Trump widens Florida lead over Marco Rubio


Marco Rubio has lost ground to Donald Trump over the past two weeks in Florida, a new poll has found with less than a week left until Rubio's must-win home-state primary.

Trump bests Rubio 45-22 percent, according to the Quinnipiac University poll. That's a margin of 23 percentage points, 5 points higher than the 16-point lead in Quinnipiac's Feb. 25 poll (in that survey, Trump was ahead by 44-28 percent).

Rubio has lost a string of primaries and caucuses in other states, winning only Sunday in Puerto Rico. He's even fallen behind rival John Kasich in several instances. The Florida poll found Ted Cruz garnering 18 percent support, and Kasich 8 percent. The poll's error margin is 3.8 percentage points.

"The effort within the Republican Party to stop Donald Trump from winning the presidential nomination appears unlikely to stop him from taking Florida's delegate-rich winner-take-all primary," assistant poll director Peter A. Brown said in a statement. "In the Sunshine State, hometown hero Sen. Marco Rubio is 23 points behind Trump and isn't even doing much better than Sen. Ted. Cruz. Also discouraging for the anti-Trump folks is that Trump voters say they are less likely than those supporting any of the other candidates to change their mind in the closing days."

Nineteen percent of respondents said they might still change their candidate, and 6 percent remained undecided.

Quinnipiac surveyed 657 self-identified Republican voters from March 2-7. That methodology is likely to have caught independent voters who won't be allowed to vote in Florida's closed primary. Polls that have targeted Republicans based on voter lists showing their previous participation in elections have showed a smaller Trump lead.

CNN/ORC poll: Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio 40-24% in Florida


Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio 40-24 percent in Florida, according to a new CNN/ORC poll. They lead Ted Cruz, who drew 19 percent, and John Kasich, who drew 5 percent.

Sixty-six percent of respondents said Rubio should drop out if he loses Florida.

The poll had a relatively small sample size -- only 313 Republican respondents -- and an error margin of 5.5 percentage points. CNN's story on the poll doesn't outline its methodology, but it seems likely -- given the poll's wide margin -- that ORC relies on self-identified Republican voters, a method that tends to include independents who cannot vote in Florida's close primary.


March 07, 2016

Monmouth poll: Donald Trump still leads Marco Rubio in Florida, by single digits


A week and a day from Florida’s all-important Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump still holds a lead over Marco Rubio, according to a new poll.

Monmouth University found Trump ahead of Rubio by 38-30 percent – a single-digit gap like the one found by other recent surveys conducted with a similar method. But there’s a new sign of trouble for Rubio in the survey: He’s quickly losing support among voters who have yet to cast ballots.

Rubio amassed a 19 percent lead over Trump among respondents who had already voted, putting him ahead 48-23 percent. But Trump leads Rubio 42-26 percent among those yet to vote. About a fifth of all expected GOP voters have cast ballots already.

“Rubio is within shooting distance in his home state with a week to go in this volatile nomination contest,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. “It is telling, though, that Rubio is not even the clear victor in a direct face off with Trump. There goes the argument that Rubio would triumph if only it were a two person race.”

In a hypothetical one-on-one match-up, Trump bests Rubio 47-45 percent. The poll’s error margin is 4.9 percentage points.

The two candidates’ support is also split by geography, according to the poll. Rubio leads Trump 41-30 percent in South Florida, while Trump is ahead of him 44-22 percent in Central Florida. Trump is narrowly ahead of Rubio 36-32 percent in North Florida; Rubio campaigned Saturday in Jacksonville and will hold a rally Tuesday in Ponte Vedra Beach.

Rounding out the Florida field were Ted Cruz, who drew 17 percent support, and John Kasich, with 10 percent.

Monmouth surveyed 403 likely Republican voters from March 3-6. The university relied on voter lists showing past voter history – a method generally considered more reliable for Florida’s closed primary, which doesn’t allow independents to cast ballots.