From SurveyUSA's Sept. 16* poll for WFLA TV:
In an election for Governor of Florida today, 09/16/14, a month until ballots are mailed to voters, incumbent Republican Rick Scott is now 5 points atop Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to the latest WFLA-TV tracking poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today's results --- Scott 44%, Crist 39% --- are the first time that Crist has polled below 40% in the 6 months since WFLA-TV began tracking the contest...
Compared to a WFLA-TV tracking poll one week ago, Crist is down 5 points, Scott is down 1 point. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie --- today at 7% -- is up 4 percentage points. Crist has lost ground among men, where he is today polling at 35%, 12 points behind Scott. Immediately before the 08/26/14 Democratic primary, Crist led among Independent voters, but today Crist is down among this critically important constituency by 13 points. In Southeast Florida, a Democratic stronghold which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Crist is down 9 points week-on-week, and today leads in that part of the state by just 3. Without Southeast Florida solidly in one's back pocket, no Democrat can carry the state....
State constitutional Amendment 2, which would give Floridians the right to use medicinal marijuana if prescribed by a physician, is backed by 25 points today, 56% voting Yes, 31% voting No. The measure is supported by 40 points among the youngest voters, and by 3 points among the oldest voters. Republicans and conservatives oppose. Moderates, liberals, Democrats and Independents support. The measure passes in every region of the state.
A few thoughts: The medical-marijuana polling number is low compared to other major surveys (such as the AIF poll referenced in last week's column). Also, while it's not out of the realm of possibility, the sudden 6-point overall shift in Scott's favor is notable, though SurveyUSA has had some strange fluctuations at times (more here). Driving that is independents, who shifted a net 13 in Scott's favor (3 toward Scott and 10 from Crist) in two weeks. There's a likely tendence for robo-polls to lean a little conservative because they rely on landlines (more likely to be owned by voters who fit a more-conservative profile). Poll averages indicate it's a 2-point race (inside-the-MOE) in Scott's favor.
*pardon the late posting