ARG FL poll: Romney 49- Obama 46

From American Research Group, which conducts so-called "robo-polls." It found President Obama, once ahead of Republican Mitt Romney, falling behind 46-49 percent. A Miami Herald survey yesterday found the same thing, but reported a bigger, 7-point lead for Romney. But The Herald poll and this survey have one striking similarity: Each shows an exact, 8-point shift in Romney's favor and away from Obama since September. As we've said before: It ain't the topline, it's the trend. But now the trend is bad for Obama (although a Marist Poll found the race essentially unchanged).

Florida
	Obama	Romney	Other	Undecided
Likely voters	46%	49%	1%	4%
Democrats (40%)	80%	14%	1%	5%
Republicans (37%)	9%	88%	-	3%
Independents (23%)	45%	49%	2%	4%
Men (48%)	42%	53%	2%	3%
Women (52%)	49%	46%	-	5%
18 to 49 (48%)	50%	45%	1%	4%
50 and older (52%)	42%	54%	1%	3%
White (73%)	39%	56%	1%	4%
African American (9%)	91%	5%	-	4%
Sep 20-22	50%	45%	1%	4%

Debate pushes Romney 7 points ahead of Obama; 51-44% in FL

What a difference a debate makes.

Republican Mitt Romney has opened a large, 7 percentage-point lead over President Barack Obama in must-win Florida, according to a new poll of likely voters conducted for The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald and the Tampa Bay Times.

Romney’s 51-44 percent advantage is just on the cusp of the poll’s error margin — and it marks a dramatic 8-point shift since last month.

“Obama’s now swimming upstream,” said Brad Coker, pollster with Mason Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey of 800 likely Florida voters this month and last for The Herald and its news partners, including Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.

The previous poll, which showed Obama with an inside-the-error-margin lead, was before last Wednesday’s debate when Obama gave a lackluster performance while Romney appeared to excel.

This latest poll showed that 5 percent of those who said they were undecided before the debate say they’ll vote for Romney. And 4 percent of those who said they favored Obama pre-debate moved away from the president — 2 percent toward Romney and 2 percent undecided.

“Obama didn’t flip one voter,” Coker said. “He didn’t gain 1 percent from the debate.”

Even Democrats were upset with Obama’s performance.

“I was disappointed,” said Phyllis Apple, a 90-year-old Democrat from Aventura. “He didn’t look like he was ready to fight. Maybe the president thought it wouldn’t look presidential.”

A top political advisor to the president, David Plouffe, acknowledged that the debate was a “wake-up call” and that the race has tightened. But, he said, he believes in the campaign’s message and its vast volunteer army that can turn out nontraditional voters who don’t necessarily get picked up in polls such as this one.

“That’s where there are real gains for us. We’ve got to find them,” Plouffe said. As for Romney’s surge, Plouffe said, “Romney picked up his easy gains ... We think the Romney gains have stopped.”

More here

Marist FL poll: Obama 48%-Romney 47%

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll (MoE +/-3.1%) shows Barack Obama with 48 percent support among likely Florida voters and Mitt Romney with 47 percent support. Among registered voters Obama leads 49 percent to 45 percent.

Asked who would better handle the econcomy, 45 percent said Obama and 48 percent said Romney. On foreign policy Obama had the edge, 51 percent to 42. Fifty percent said Obama would better handle Medicare and 42 percent said Romney would.

Full results here

 

Posted by Adam C. Smith

FL Hispanic poll: Obama 61-Romney 31. About half know an illegal immigrant

Hispanic voters in Florida heavily favor President Obama, strongly back his immigration positions and are highly enthusiastic about voting, according to a new poll.

Also, about half of all the voters know someone who is illegally in the country, according to the survey of 400 registered Florida Hispanics conducted for America’s Voice, a group that advocates for liberal immigration policies.

Obama pulls 61 percent Hispanic support compared to 31 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, the poll showed.

The Hispanic support measured in the poll mirrors other Florida surveys that show Obama with a large lead among this crucial and growing segment of the Florida electorate, who comprises about 14 percent of the active voter rolls. Still, this 30-point margin is the largest Obama lead to date.

Unlike other surveys The America’s Voice poll delves more deeply into the issue of immigration with Hispanics and shows how it appears to play in Obama’s favor.

“Latinos are more engaged in this issue of immigration regardless of where you live in the country,” said University of Miami political science professor Casey Klofstad, who studies the nuances of Florida’s Hispanic vote.

Marist FL Poll: Obama 47%-Romney 46%

Remember when The Miami Herald poll found President Obama and Mitt Romney separated by just 1 point while others found bigger Obama leads? Well, well. Lookey here. A Suffolk poll just found a 3 point lead and now comes Marist, showing a 1 point lead by Obama. (Note: all leads are well within the polls' error margins).

From NBC:

In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are statistically tied, with the Democrat clinging to a slight edge. In Florida, Obama leads 47 percent to 46 percent, down from 49 percent to 45 percent in mid-September. And in Virginia, Obama is up 48 percent to 46 percent. Last month, Obama led 49 percent to 45 percent in the Old Dominion state.

"The polling in September was right after the conventions," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. He added, "We may be seeing a dissipation in some of that post-convention bounce that [Obama] enjoyed."

Miringoff also noted, "Things have returned in Florida and Virginia to the kind of closeness we've been seeing earlier in the campaign. Not so in Ohio."

These three states are where the campaigns have focused the lion's share of their resources. Of the $687 million in total advertising spending between the campaigns and outside groups, more than half -- $384 million -- has been spent trying to tip the 60 electoral votes in this trio of battlegrounds.



GOP poll: embattled David Rivera 33% - Joe Garcia 43%

Two separate polls from Republican and Democratic third-party groups have arrived at the same conclusion: Republican U.S. Rep. David Rivera is losing his reelection effort.

Rivera, under separate federal criminal investigations into his personal and campaign finances, trails Democratic challenger Joe Garcia by 9 percentage points in a Democratic poll and he’s behind by 10 points in the Republican survey — just outside the poll’s error margin.

Rivera’s campaign has produced its own survey showing he has an inside-the-error margin lead of 4 points.

The Republican survey is the newest and most eye-opening because it was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday by a top-flight GOP polling firm with vast experience in Florida: McLaughlin & Associates.

Pollster Jim McLaughlin confirmed the numbers in the poll, but he declined comment and he wouldn’t disclose who paid for the survey obtained by The Herald.

“This is a quality polling firm, and based on the data, it’s very difficult for Rivera to come back,” said political consultant David Custin, who successfully led efforts to defeat Garcia in his previous congressional races in 2010 against Rivera and in 2008 against Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart.

“I don’t want Joe to win,” Custin said. “But this poll makes it look like he will.”

The Republican poll’s numbers aren’t just bad news for Rivera in the new Kendall-to-Key West Congressional District 26 seat.

The survey shows Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney trails President Obama 43-51 percent in the GOP-leaning district, which voted an average 4 percentage points more Republican compared to the national average for the results of the two prior presidential campaigns. In some ways, the results of this survey shed light on Romney’s struggles in must-win Florida.

Obama is besting Romney in every recent major Florida survey, albeit the Democrat’s statewide leads are often within the error margin.

In the district, voters essentially deadlocked 47-47 on whether it’s bad to raise taxes on the wealthy or not. And when asked about Republican vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan’s Medicare, 45 percent said it would be more likely to save “trillions” of dollars while 38 percent said it would end Medicare.\
 
On Obamacare, 26 percent want it repealed, 33 percent want it modified and 34 percent want it left alone.

More here

Connie Mack camp: Yeah, we're losing (but not by 9-14 points)

Memo from Connie Mack campaign manager Jeff Cohen, who raises some good and some dubious points about ALL of the major public polling that shows the Republican Congressman trailing Bill Nelson:

A variety of polls commissioned by the media have attempted to paint the Florida Senate race in a light that is simply not accurate.

As numerous respected outside pollsters and objective members of the media have noted, many public polls have been constructed using voter turnout projections that simply do not match, or even attempt to match, the realities and trends of this election cycle. Virtually no objective pollster or pundit expects 2012 turnout to even closely reflect 2008’s aberration.

For instance, highly-regarded pollster John McLaughlin was recently quoted in National Review saying media pollsters are being lobbied by Democrats to, ‘weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models.’ McLaughlin added that, ‘the intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias.’

Nevertheless some media outlets and Democrat-affiliated pollsters have released polls based on highly questionable Party Identification models that can serve no other purpose than to attempt to sway public opinion and voter enthusiasm. For instance over the last two days alone:

This morning’s Quinnipiac Poll (Commissioned by CBS News / New York Times) survey showing Nelson beating Mack 53-39 was comprised of:

                  27% Republicans

                  36% Democrats

                  33% Independents

The Washington Post Poll (released 9/25/12) showing Nelson beating Mack 54-40 was comprised of:

                  32% Republicans

                  33% Democrats

                  31% Independents

The demographic makeup of these and other polls contrast sharply with the Mack campaign’s model of voter performance. Our latest internal poll, conducted 9/23 was comprised of:

                  39.5% Republican

                  43% Democrat

                  16.7% Independent

Our poll, which sampled 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4%, had several key findings that stand in contrast to public polls:

FL Q Poll: Obama 53% – Romney 44%; a 1-month 6-point shift in Dem's favor

Though his 9-point lead looks impressive, President Obama's apparent edge over Republian Mitt Romney has a smaller -- yet more significant figure -- to pay attention to in the latest poll: 6 percentage points.

That's the shift in Obama's favor in a month between two Quinnipiac University polls. Other polls are picking up the same momentum.

Good for Obama. Bad for Romney.

Remember this about polling: It ain''t just the topline, it's the trend.

But the toplines, too, are troubling for Romney. Obama's 9-point lead is well outside the 2.8% error margin for the poll.

From Quinnipiac:

President Barack Obama is over the magic 50 percent mark and tops Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters by 9 to 12 percentage points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today.

Voters in each state see President Obama as better than Gov. Romney to handle the economy, health care, Medicare, national security, an international crisis and immigration. Romney ties or inches ahead of the president on handling the budget deficit. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states – no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them – shows:

Florida: Obama leads Romney 53 – 44 percent, compared to 49 – 46 percent August 23;

Ohio: Obama over Romney 53 – 43 percent, compared to 50 – 44 percent August 23;

Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 54 – 42 percent, unchanged from 53 – 42 percent

More here

For the wonks:

DRI % breakdown in this poll: 35-27-33. 

DRI % breakdown in 08 exits: 37-34-29.

Republicans will complain the poll undersamples Republicans. That argument, in the face of numerous polls showing no real gains for Romney in quite some time, is getting tougher to make for the Romney camp, which says it has a turnout machine. But so do Dems, who registered more than 200,000 new voters this election season compared to 44,000 registered by the GOP in Florida.

WaPo FL Poll: Obama 51-Romney 47

The Washington Post has released a new likely-voter survey showing President Obama with an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney, 51-47. The numbers differ from a Miami Herald poll taken last week showing a closer 48-47 race in Obama's favor.

Update: This poll doesn't seem to be heavy on Democrats. Its Democrat-Republican-Independent split: 33%, 32%, 31%. In The Herald's Mason-Dixon poll surveyed 44% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 17% independents a 5-point margin that exactly mirrors the split in Florida (41-36-23). The Herald poll asked people how they were registered, the WaPo poll apparently asked them party ID.

Polls that use a how-do-you-identify-yourself methodology differ from polls that actually ask people how they're registered (the latter of which is preferred in Florida, a state with a solid voter registration system). More here on that. And most other party ID polls right now have more people identifying themselves as Democrats.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/polls/#storylink=cpy\The Post says Obama wins 74 percent of non-white voters in Florida, but it doesn't show the Hispanic breakdown -- a key demographic to measure.

Obama’s approval ratings in Florida are 50 percent threshold, the Post says, and 52 percent say they approve of the president's handling of the economy.

Like the Herald poll, the post says Romney "runs about evenly with the president when it comes to who is trusted to handle the economy." Voters in our poll was deadlocked on the issue.

"But, by a whopping 60 to 35 percent margin, Florida voters say they trust Obama rather than Romney to advance the interests of the middle class. By 14 percentage points, they side with the president as the one with greater empathy toward people’s economic problems," The Post reports on questions we didn't ask.

The Herald poll asked who could be trusted more to keep Medicare financially stable, and Obama led numerically but not statistically, by 2 point. The Post might have asked a slightly different question about Medicare about the "future" of the program. And it found Obama winning that hands down: "Today in Florida, the president runs 15 percentage points ahead of his challenger on whom voters would trust more to determine the future of Medicare."

 

ARG FL Poll: Obama 50-Romney 45

From American Research Group, which, like a previous Public Policy Polling robo-poll today found President Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-45 among likely Florida voters. A Miami Herald poll, which used a different methodology and (likely) partisan breakdown, found a much closer race. For discussion on those differences, read the bottom of the post about the PPP poll here.

Both PPP and the Herald's Mason-Dixon poll showed the same split among independents, 51-40, in favor of Obama. ARG finds them virtually tied, 47-48, for Obama and Romney respectively. That's a sign that the poll probably skewed Democratic in its survey size, though the crosstabs aren't available.

 

Likely voters	50%	45%	1%	4%
Democrats (42%)	83%	12%	1%	4%
Republicans (36%)	12%	84%	-	4%
Independents (22%)	47%	48%	1%	4%