Day before Election Day FL outlook: 4.5m have voted, Ds lead Rs by 167,000 ballots

More than 4.5 million Florida votes are already in before Election Day and Democrats used the last full official day of in-person early voting to extend their lead over Republican ballots cast by 167,000, according to this morning's figures.

Note: But for the numbers, the language in this blog is nearly identical to yesterday's. It's repeated here to provide context. The Saturday early vote numbers that were available Sunday morning weren't fully updated. Now they're as current as can be, along with the most-recent absentee-ballot numbers. And a big shout-out to Trevor Aaronson, with the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting, who helped pick up the early vote data analysis slack the past 3 days.

The last day of early voting was a whopper: a record 385,000 people early voted.

In all, about 38 percent of registered voters have cast ballots and about 50 of likely voters have. There are still absentee ballots pouring in.

That means wait times at polling stations on Election Day will be much shorter than the early vote wait times that have plagued South Florida for the past eight days. Tens of thousands of more early votes, by way of absentee ballots, are still flowing in and a few thousand (but not tens of thousands) more will come by way of in-person absentee ballots cast at some election supervisors' offices in select counties, such as Miami Dade (more here on that).

Early voting was shortened in 2012 compared to 2008, and the numbers are smaller.

According to George Mason University's United States Elections Project (which tracks early voting) about 2.6 million in-person early votes were cast in 2008 over 14 days in Florida. This year, after the GOP-led Legislature and Republican Gov. Rick Scott cut the days to eight, it's 2.4 million. But absentee ballot voting is stronger. In 2008, 1.7 million cast absentee ballots and this year the number will exceed 2 million.

Guess which type of voting Republicans specialize in? Absentee ballots. Democrats do better at in-person early voting. Though more fraud-prone, absentee ballot voting wasn't touched in the election law Scott signed that shortened early voting days.

In all, Republicans have cast 79,000 more absentee ballots than Democrats. Democrats have cast 247,000 more in-person early votes.

Using the GMU numbers (and there are other numbers that differ from them), Democrats had a cumulative lead as high as 363,000 ballots in 2008, or about 8 percentage points. The Republicans say the Democrats' 2008 lead was about 315,000. And the Democrats say their lead was about 269,000. Our latest analysis of those 2008 voters who remain on the rolls now shows the Democrat early ballot/pre-Election Day lead would be about 282,000 if the presidential election four years ago were held with the current electorate.

Regardless, that Democrat lead has been cut to 4 points, or 167,000 -- and not just because of the shortened early voting period.

There's a sense of diminished Democratic enthusiasm for the president compared to 2008. And the Democrats actually lost more voters between 2008 and 2012 than Republicans and the Democratic Party grew at a slower pace (this was before Scott's voter bill was signed in 2011).

Also of note: a Miami Herald poll indicated Romney gets more crossover votes than Obama and is winning the early vote anyway.

Early vote numbers:

Party	EV Total	%
DEM	1,109,262	46%
REP	862,277	36%
IND	440,133	18%
TOTAL	2,411,672

Absentee vote:

Party	AB Total	%
REP	885,675	43%
DEM	806,310	39%
IND	365,736	18%
TOTAL	2,057,721

Combined:

Party	EV Total	%
DEM	1,915,572	43%
REP	1,747,952	39%
IND	805,869	18%
TOTAL	4,469,393

The complications and absurdities of elections in Miami, Florida

Get a ballot. Cast a ballot. Easy, right?

Not in Miami. Not in Florida.

Consider what happened Sunday when Miami-Dade’s elections office, to serve the tens of thousands of people who wanted to vote early, decided to open its Doral headquarters office to allow for more in-person early voters.

That’s when good intentions paved a pathway to public-relations hell.

There weren’t enough functioning printers at the headquarters. There weren’t enough workers. And there were too many voters, about 180, who showed up when the voting was unexpectedly offered as a bonus.

Mayor Carlos Gimenez wasn’t told, either.

So then the office shut down voting, partly due to Gimenez, and tried to turn people away. One woman, among the throngs who had illegally parked due to the tight conditions, found that her car had been towed — one of two hauled away from the lot.

Then someone scrounged up a printer and someone told Gimenez, a Republican, how utterly foolish it would be to turn away voters. Voting was then allowed to proceed more than an hour later.

“We went through a lot to actually vote,” said Justin Walden, 18.

Crist says Scott's refusal to extend early voting is 'unconscionable'

Before former Gov. Charlie Crist rallied the crowd at President Barack Obama’s final Florida rally on Sunday, he made a guest appearance on CBS4’s Facing South Florida with Jim Defede and did some politicking of his own.

Crist covered the famous hug that first got him in trouble with Republicans, the “unconscionable” decision by Gov. Rick Scott not to extend early voting hours, and his future political plans.

Crist laughed when Defede said his first encounter with Obama was a “hug heard around the world” and recalled how he also
“got a lot of grief from Republicans” when he extended early voting hours in 2008.

“But when you’re governor, you don’t just work for one party or the other you work for the people of the state,’’ Crist said. “I saw the long lines. I saw it was still hot in South Florida, that a lot of senior citizens were waiting in those lines, and I realized it was an emergency situation and people needed to have the opportunity to vote.

“The same thing happened under Gov. Jeb Bush and he extended early voting as well,’’ he said.

The swing voters of the swing state. What do independents think?

They are the swing voters of the ultimate swing state.

Florida’s independent voters are either too conservative for the Republican Party, too liberal for the Democrats — or too, well, independent for either. They are all over the political map — an apt reflection of Florida, a state with a little bit of everywhere else.

But ultimately, they’ll cast the deciding votes that guarantee President Barack Obama a second term or help Mitt Romney unseat him.

Public-opinion surveys have swung left and right with the mood of independents. But they’re starting to settle on Romney.

A Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times survey found Romney winning 49-43 among independents.

An unscientific Miami Herald email survey of 2,051 registered no-party-affiliation voters who cast absentee ballots found they favored Obama 51-44 percent.

4.3 million Florida early ballots in, Dems extend lead over GOP to 133,000 pre-Election Day votes

More than 4.3 million Florida votes are already in before Election Day and Democrats used the last full official day of in-person early voting to extend their lead over Republican ballots cast by 133,000, according to this morning's figures.

In all, about 36 percent of registered voters have cast ballots and about 48 of likely voters have.

That means wait times at polling stations on Election Day will be much shorter than the early vote wait times that have plagued South Florida for the past eight days. Tens of thousands of more early votes, by way of absentee ballots, are still flowing in and a few thousand (but not tens of thousands) more will come by way of in-person absentee ballots cast at some election supervisors' offices in select counties, such as Miami Dade (more here on that).

Early voting was shortened in 2012 compared to 2008, and the numbers are smaller.

According to George Mason University's United States Elections Project (which tracks early voting) about 2.6 million in-person early votes were cast in 2008 over 14 days in Florida. This year, after the GOP-led Legislature and Republican Gov. Rick Scott cut the days to eight, it's 2.3 million. But absentee ballot voting is stronger. In 2008, 1.7 million cast absentee ballots and this year the number is 2 million.

Guess which type of voting Republicans specialize in? Absentee ballots. Democrats do better at in-person early voting. Though more fraud-prone, absentee ballot voting wasn't touched in the election law Scott signed that shortened early voting days.

In all, Republicans have cast 87,000 more absentee ballots than Democrats. Democrats have cast 220,000 more in-person early votes.

Using the GMU numbers (and there are other numbers that differ from them), Democrats had a cumulative lead as high as 363,000 ballots in 2008, or about 8 percentage points. Now, that Democrat lead has been cut to 3 points, or 133,000 -- and not just because of the shortened early voting period.

There's a sense of diminished Democratic enthusiasm for the president compared to 2008. And the Democrats actually lost more voters between 2008 and 2012 than Republicans and the Democratic Party grew at a slower pace (this was before Scott's voter bill was signed in 2011). Our latest analysis of those 2008 voters who remain on the rolls now shows the Democrat early ballot/pre-Election Day lead would be only 282,000 if the presidential election four years ago were held with the current electorate.

Also of note: a Miami Herald poll indicated Romney gets more crossover votes than Obama and is winning the early vote anyway.

Here are today's numbers for early votes:

Party	EV total	%
DEM	1,052,061	46%
REP	831,456	36%
IND	414,889	18%
Total	2,298,406

Absentee votes:

Party	AB Total	%
REP	871,239	43%
DEM	784,117	39%
IND	355,824	18%
Total	2,011,180

Cumulative EVAB totals

Party	EVAB total	%
DEM	1,836,178	43%
REP	1,702,695	40%
IND	770,713	18%
Total	4,309,586

For other posts on the EVAB numbers and voting issues, click here

About 4 million early FL ballots cast -- and growing. Ds leading Rs by 104,000

About 4 million early votes were cast by Floridians by Saturday morning, the last day of early voting, which looks like it will be a heavy-turnout day.

Democrats have steadily increased their margins, leading Republicans now by about 187,000 early in-person ballots cast as of this morning. Republicans led Democrats by 84,000 absentee ballots cast.

Net Democratic advantage: 104,000, a lead that grows with each day of early voting.

Total number of early voters through Friday: More than 353,000. That's more than 2 million ballots cast in a week.

Republican Gov. Rick Scott has refused to extend early voting into the Sunday before Election Day, an early vote time that he and the GOP Legislature specifically eliminated after President Obama in 2008 turned out massive numbers of Democrats to help beat Republican John McCain. Scott's law also shortened early voting days from 14 to eight and, relative to the extra hours approved by then-Gov. Charlie Crist in 2008, has effectively ensured that urban Democratic counties, such as those in South Florida, have a cumulative 24 fewer hours to vote compared to four years ago.

Turnout this year has hit record highs during early voting, which haven't been glitch-free (for background on turnout issues and other early and absentee ballot data click this Florida Voters link to access past posts).

The number of total early voters is so high that there's a chance almost 50 percent of the electorate will have voted before Election Day (there are 12 million registered voters, but about 75 percent -- or 9 million -- typically show). Right now, about 44 percent of the 9 million likely voters have already cast their ballots.

Our latest poll shows President Obama is losing Florida overall to Mitt Romney, 45-51 percent. But Obama is carrying South Florida. And if South Florida overperforms on Election day (along with urban Democratic-heavy counties like Orange and Hillsborough), he can certainly carry Florida.

The early vote numbers:

Party	EV Total	%
DEM	928,205	46%
REP	740,674	37%
IND	357,750	18%
Total	2,026,629

Absentee votes:

Party	AB Total	%
REP	821,394	44%
DEM	737,620	39%
IND	328,736	17%
Total	1,887,750

Total early votes:

Party	Early Totals	%
DEM	1,665,825	43%
REP	1,562,068	40%
IND	686,486	18%
Total	3,914,379

 

Sen. Bill Nelson and Obama's campaign sound like they disagree about early vote hurdles in FL

When the GOP Legislature and Gov. Rick Scott cut the number of early voting days in Florida, it clearly targeted one of the Democrats' favorite methods of voting (background here).

Now, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is joining other Democrats and liberal groups in calling on Scott to extend early voting into Sunday -- a day specifically eliminated by Scott when he signed HB 1355 in 2011.

"Combined with too few polling locations and a lack of adequate parking at many of them, an untold number of Floridians may be deprived of an opportunity to vote," Nelson wrote in a letter he just sent to Scott, mainly referencing reports in The Miami Herald.

It seems President Obama's campaign, however, disagrees.

Here's what Florida manager Ashley Walker told The Tampa Bay Times when asked if "the rules of the game (shortened early voting hours) are working against you?"

Walker: "They're not. They tried to stack up the rules of the game against voter registration. We ran the largest voter registration effort this state has ever seen. They decided to decrease early vote so that they have more of an emphasis on vote-by-mail,and we played on their playing field and cut into their margin. And now each day we're stacking up votes on early voting, and we're turning out more of their sporadic voters than they are."

**Update: The Obama campaign says Walker's comments are being taken out of context when juxtaposed with Nelson's in this case.

Said spokesman Eric Jotkoff: "“There is no disagreement here. Our campaign and Senator Nelson are on the same page. As we have made very clear, we support any efforts to make it easier for eligible Floridians to vote.  There has been record turnout at Early Voting sites across the state showing the huge enthusiasm. Yesterday alone, 343,000 Floridians made their voices heard in this election by going to Early Vote and today all signs point to another day of record turnout.”

 Another aspect worthy of discussion: the press release from Nelson's office saying that he's "seeking to avoid a chaotic Election Day Tuesday."

NBC FL poll: Obama 49- Romney 47

From NBC, whose poll looks rather different from a Miami Herald poll showing a 6-point Mitt Romney lead:

In the Sunshine State, 63 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day, and Obama is winning them, 53 percent to 46 percent. But Romney is ahead among Election Day voters in Florida, 52 percent to 40 percent.

In Ohio, 35 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so, and Obama is leading them, 62 percent to 36 percent. Yet Romney is up among Election Day voters in the Buckeye State, 52 percent to 42 percent.

Strong approval for the president’s handling of Sandy The polls were conducted after Hurricane Sandy slammed into the East Coast, and seven in 10 likely voters in Florida and Ohio approve of the president’s job in handling the hurricane and its aftermath.

“The response was overwhelmingly positive, and that was occurring across party lines,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

On handling the economy Meanwhile, Romney has a slight advantage over Obama in Florida when it comes to which candidate would better handle the economy – 48 percent pick Romney and 46 percent back Obama.

Dems: Obama is winning Florida. Sporadically.

The end of the 2012 campaign is giving greater attention than ever to the term "sporadic voters" or the more insidery "sporadics."

In the words of Democrats, the sporadic voter is one who doesn't vote in three of the past three elections. He or she picks and chooses, maybe shows up for a presidential race. So a 0 voter (0 votes in 3 elections) voter is highly sporadic. A 3 (one who votes in 3 elections straight) is highly reliable and not sporadic at all.

This year, for President Obama, it's imperative that the "sporadics" appear because they seem to support Obama more than Mitt Romney.

Consider: many national, and a few state polls, show that Obama is losing to Romney in surveys of likely voters (the screen to determine likely voters varies by pollster). But Obama often wins with straight-up registered voters, those who can vote but may or may not.

Democrats say they're winning the sporadics, getting them to turn out in early voting in Florida. They're 0s over Republicans 43-29% and 1s by 47-30% (click the image to see the data, click here for more on early ballots cast). Democrats say that gives them an edge because they're banking unlikely votes early, allowing them to hold their own as they turn out likely voters. We haven't asked the Republicans, but chances are they'll disagree (if anything, because of the you-choose-A-I-choose-B game theory of campaigning)

The strategy of team Obama yields two takeaways: 1) it sure knows how to mine data 2) the president has a narrow path to win when he needs to rely on unlikely voters.

 

3.5 million FL early ballots in; Dems lead by 76,000. But it's not like 2008

About 3.5 million Floridians have already cast absentee and in-person early voting and Democrats have an edge of about 76,000 ballots cast before the polls re-opened this morning.

Expect that to continue to grow over the next two days of in-person early voting, which Democrats dominate, especially in South Florida, which is why the GOP Legislature and Gov. Rick Scott effectively shortened early voting days. Democrats have rolled up a 156,000 early vote edge while Republicans lead in absentee ballots case by about 80,000. If every Democrat and Republican who requested an absentee ballot voted it, the GOP absentee-ballot lead would be cut by half.

Most polls show Mitt Romney's winning, and Republicans note that Democrats won't have the early vote advantage they had in 2008 (when they led by anywhere from 250,000 to 363,000 ballots, depending on how you analyze the data).

Well, shortening early voting days from 14 to eight will, by definition, help shorten the number of early votes. Understand also that, relative to the actual early voting hours available in South Florida in 2008, early voting time has been cut 20 percent, or 24 total hours. And South Florida favors President Obama the most.

However, Democrats are barely matching their raw early vote numbers compared to four years ago. So there's an enthusiasm gap relative to 2008 as well.

Democrats also point out that Republicans have been talking a better game than they've produced on the ground. Republicans predicted they'd be up in early ballots cast on Election Day. It's pretty clear they won't be. The Democratic total vote margin increases with each day of early voting.

So what happens on Election Day? May the best ground game win.

Early votes

Party	EV Total	%
DEM	770,892	46%
REP	614,988	37%
IND	286,988	17%
Total	1,672,868

Absentee votes

Party	AB Total	%
REP	781,043	44%
DEM	700,970	39%
IND	308,646	17%
Total	1,790,659

Cumulative EVAB

Party	EVAB	%
DEM	1,471,862	42%
REP	1,396,031	40%
IND	595,634	17%
Total	3,463,527

Outstanding absentee ballots:

Party	Outstanding	%
REP	362,920	36%
DEM	406,634	41%
IND	230,042	23%
Total	999,596