There's a good chance that more than one-third of the likely Florida voters in this year's midterms have already voted now that nearly 2.2 million have cast mail-in absentee and in-person early ballots.
Republicans still hold a sizable lead over Democrats in total pre-Election Day ballots cast: about 141,000, or 6.5 percentage points. (NOTE: post was updated with new AB figures about 142,000, or 6.7 percentage-points more.)
Yesterday morning, the GOP lead by nearly 143,000 or 7.2 percentage points.
With a lead over Republicans in 455,000 registered voters, the GOP's early ballot lead isn't insurmountable. In 2010, for instance, the GOP led by about 277,000 early ballots, or almost 12 percentage points. On Election Day, Republicans cast slightly more ballots then, too, and Alex Sink went on to lose to Gov. Rick Scott by fewer than 62,000 votes. It's a clear sign of how important independents are to Democrats. Right now, most polls show Crist winning independents, who have cast about 17 percent of the early ballots.
Of course, in 2012, the parties were in the opposite posture, with Democrats being ahead in pre-Election Day ballots. President Obama barely carried the state then.
This weekend is the last for early in-person voting. Will Democrats, particularly African-Americans, come out in force and reduce the GOP raw-vote margin significantly? So far, it hasn't happened. And in the end, raw votes matter more than percentages.
A 140,000-vote lead is still pretty big. Even 100,000 is. Yes, not every Republican will vote Scott. Nor will every Democrat vote Crist. Votes will be tallied Election Day. Still, the votes cast by party are a good indication of ground game, and that edge remains with Scott.
Prior posts are here in the Florida Voters section, and here are the numbers: