October 14, 2014

SurveyUSA/WFLA: Charlie Crist 45%, Rick Scott 41% (still a basic tie)


SurveyUSA's poll tracking for WFLA-TV shows that Charlie Crist is still marginally topping Gov. Rick Scott, 45-41 percent. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie is at 7 percent

But, like all other polls, that Crist lead is inside the error margin. So it's basically a tie.

Still, as noted last week, the trend has favored Crist, especially in the SurveyUSA track that shows him ticking up in support ever since he started advertising more heavily in mid September. Other posts today on CNN and 0ptimus polls are here and here.

SurveyUSA track 1014




CNN poll: FL gov race deadlocked 44-44% between Rick Scott, Charlie Crist


More evidence that Florida's race for governor is dead-even: a CNN/ORC poll showing it's.... dead even.

Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist pull in 44 percent of the vote each. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie gets 9 percent support among likely voters. Among registered voters, the poll shows more of an advantage for Crist: a 42-40 percent lead that's still well within the margin of error.

The poll of 1,035 voters (610 of whom say they're likely to vote) surveyed equal proportions of self-identified Republicans and Democrats, 34 percent, with 32 percent identifying themselves as independents.

The poll might be slightly better news for Crist than Scott in that, because the Democrat does marginally better with registered voters (that is, the total poll of the electorate) he has an oh-so-small extra reservoir of support he can tap. Likely voter screens in polls can miss Democrats more than Republicans and, as a campaign intensifies, registered voters become likely voters.

Still, this poll is evidence of the very definition of coin toss.

Here's the CNN story and here are the poll's crosstabs.

Mike Fasano endorses Charlie Crist in new TV ad

It was inevitable, but it's still going to infuriate Republicans.

It's a new TV ad that features Republican Mike Fasano, the former state legislator from Pasco County who was appointed tax collector by Gov. Rick Scott, explaining why he supports Democrat Charlie Crist for governor.

In the 30-second spot, Fasano describes Scott's campaign for re-election as being all about "tearing people down."

"When I saw the smears from Rick Scott against Charlie Crist, I had to say something," Fasano says, facing the camera. "Listen. I've known Charlie Crist for decades. We don't agree on everything, but he's a good man and was a good governor."

Throughout the campaign, Fasano has been urging Crist to focus more intensely on pocketbook issues such as the cost of property insurance and Duke Energy's cost recovery fee.

The ad, shot in Dade City (with the historic courthouse in the background) is classic Fasano with the informal style and his New York accent, gesturing with his reading glasses in his hand. It hits the air in Tampa Bay on Wednesday. A recent poll shows Fasano had a 95 percent favorability rating in his former West Pasco House district.

Jeb Bush's new TV ad for Rick Scott: "The choice for me is easy." (Spanish-version next?)


Gov. Rick Scott's campaign features a not-so-new but pretty-effective spokesman in a new ad: Former Gov. Jeb Bush.

"In my experience as governor, I've found that there are two kinds of politicians," Bush says. "Those that are driven by personal ambition. And those that deliver results."

In case anyone was wondering, the first politician Bush references is his successor and Scott predecessor and current Scott challenger Charlie Crist. What makes the ad effective is that this somewhat-negative message is shown, not told. That is, Bush never says Crist's name. The camera just cuts to B-roll of Crist on the campaign trail.

The rest of the spot revolves around Scott's record.

Now, the question is, how effective is Bush as a spokesman? Republican endorses Republican is only so newsy. And Bush never really liked Crist, even when he was a Republican. But, in a smaller election in Crist's home county of Pinellas (CD-13), Bush's endorsement and support probably helped David Jolly win. And Bush left office with high favorables (thanks to his leadership after back-to-back storms). He's also a frontrunner in the early race for president.

One of Bush's strongest assets is his Spanish-speaking abilities. He recently cut three spots for GOP candidates in Colorado, California and Arizona.

Expect this same ad to have a Spanish-language version, which would be highly effective in Miami-Dade, a county where Scott's having problems but where 72 percent of registered Republicans and 55 percent of the general electorate is Hispanic.


Families seek to get involved in school voucher lawsuit

Fifteen Florida families want to help fend off a legal challenge to the state school voucher program.

The families are hoping to intervene in a high-profile lawsuit brought by the Florida Education Assocation. The suit claims that the state school voucher program, which helps low-income families pay private school tuition, conflicts with the state's Constitutional duty to provide a "uniform, efficient, safe, secure and high quality system of free public schools."

In a motion filed Wednesday, the families said they would be affected by the outcome of the case.

"Most of the proposed intervenor-defendants do not have the financial means to send their children to private school, absent the Florida Tax Credit Scholarship," their attorney wrote. "Accordingly, if the program is eliminated they will be forced to look for alternatives or to send their children to public school -- in many instances the same public schools where their children were struggling or failing before becoming Florida Tax Credit Scholarship recipients."

The families come from nine different counties. (Six are from Miami-Dade and two are from Hillsborough.) Some have children with disabilities. Others have children who attend religious schools. 

The attorney said they represent the 69,000 children participating in the voucher program statewide.

Their legal fees are being paid for by the Alliance for School Choice, a Washington-based advocacy group.

Read the motion below.

Download McCall, Motion to Intervene

Wasserman Schultz's False claim about Wisconsin voter ID law

From our friends @PolitiFactWisc:

Separate judicial rulings in Wisconsin and Texas on Oct. 9, 2014 gave cheer to opponents of state laws requiring voters to show photo ID at the polls.

Here’s part of what the Democratic National Committee chairwoman, U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, had to say in a statement:

"With less than ten days before early voting starts in Texas and Wisconsin, I am pleased with the judicial decisions yesterday striking down burdensome photo ID laws in those states."

Did the brief Supreme Court order "strike down" the Wisconsin statute?

The DNC leader was in a minority in using that terminology, we found in reviewing media reports and reactions from legal and political observers.

But the New York Times’ headline on its story may have influenced some -- and in fact a DNC spokesman pointed it out to us in providing backup for Wasserman Schultz’s  claim.

"Courts Strike Down Voter ID laws in  Wisconsin and Texas,"  the  paper’s online headline declared Oct. 9, 2014.

The story beneath that headline, though, used "struck down" only when referring to the Texas ruling. Here’s what it said about Wisconsin: "TheSupreme Court on Thursday evening stopped officials in Wisconsin from requiring voters there to provide photo identification before casting their ballots in the coming election."

There’s a significant difference between the rulings in the two states. Turn to PolitiFact Wisconsin's full report

0ptimus FL poll: Charlie Crist tops Rick Scott 41-39%; Wyllie at 13%


The new Republican-leaning data-analytics firm, 0ptimus, has released its latest survey in the Florida governor's race, and it looks a lot like the last survey: a basic tie between Democrat Charlie Crist and Gov. Rick Scott.

Crist gets about 41 percent of the vote to Scott's 39 percent (it's 40.5 to 39.4 percent to be exact). Libertarian Adrian Wyllie is still pulling an impressive 13 percent in the poll. The margin of error is 1.3 percentage points.

So the race is basically frozen.

Two ways to look at the poll (and the other recent ones all showing a basically tied race:

Good news for Scott: Democrats, despite their numerical advantage on the voter rolls, tend to underperform in mid-term elections, when Republicans overperform. If the race remains essentially tied, there's probably a better chance that the Republican will win. Also, unlike in other races where undecideds break slightly more for the challenger, this race basically has two incumbents because Crist is seeking reelection to the post he left in 2010.

Good news for Crist: Crist is winning. And this poll has a Republican turnout advantage of 3% points -- that's lower than 2010 but higher than 2006. If Crist can get Democratic turnout to at least equal Republican turnout, almost every poll shows he wins. Most polls show he wins with a Republican turnout advantage of 1% point. Also, it's important to note that this and many other recent surveys is a robo-poll, which can lean more conservative. To compensate for that, 0ptimus surveys thousands more voters than most (this poll is 6,384) and adjusts the responses to give younger and minority voters (i.e., those who are more cellphone-oriented and more likely to vote Democrat) more representation.

So my forecast is the same: Flip a coin, if it lands on its edge, it'll be the best predictor of who wins the race right now.

Here are the crosstabs:

Candidate REP DEM IND
Scott 64.2% 14.9% 33.5%
Crist 16.7% 67.0% 38.6%
Wyllie 13.0% 10.6% 16.0%
Unsure 6.2% 7.5% 11.8%


Another former GOP foe declines to endorse Republican in Miami congressional race


Carlos Curbelo is not very popular among his former Republican primary rivals.

The GOP nominee for Florida's 26th congressional district, who is campaigning to unseat Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia, tried a few weeks ago to win the endorsement of opponent Joe Martinez -- who turned him down.

"I told him we differed on a lot of things," Martinez said Tuesday.

That news comes on the heels of primary runner-up Ed MacDougall telling acquaintances they shouldn't vote for Curbelo because he won't disclose his government and public relations firm's clients.

Curbelo didn't seek MacDougall's endorsement, not after a bruising primary in which MacDougall, the Cutler Bay mayor, repeatedly attacked Curbelo, who ended up winning the five-way race by 22 points. 

But Curbelo, a Miami-Dade school board member, did meet with Martinez, a former county commissioner, after the Aug. 26 primary. Martinez placed third, though he received the second-highest number of votes in the Miami-Dade County portion of the district, which spans Westchester to Key West.

"They've been friends, and they talked about many things," Curbelo's communications director, Wadi Gaitan, said Tuesday.

According to Martinez, the two men didn't part on bad terms, but he couldn't back a candidate who had been supported by the GOP establishment to the dismay of other Republican hopefuls.

"We're talking about the Republican Party getting behind him and intervening in the primary, which they never should have done," Martinez said. "I was upset about that."

He blamed not only the National Republican Congressional Committee but also former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Miami Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, all of whom flaunted their Curbelo endorsements before the primary election.

Martinez said he disagrees with Curbelo on policy matters, including Curbelo's support of the Common Core educational standards, immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship, and gay marriage.

And he predicted that some longtime constituents would list "Joe Martinez" a write-in candidate on the ballot before voting for Curbelo or Garcia, "as a sign of protest to the Republican Party."

Republicans use Miami Rep. Joe Garcia's own words against him in new 'scandal' ad


Joe Garcia won his South Florida congressional seat two years ago in part by attacking then-Rep. David Rivera, who was plagued by state and federal investigations, on his integrity.

Now Carlos Curbelo is trying to the same thing against Garcia -- and his supporters have the congressman's own words to use against him.

Republicans on Tuesday revealed a television advertisement that extensively quotes a 2012 spot by Garcia. It's the second 2014 campaign spot in which conservatives accuse Garcia of hypocrisy by attacking him with his own promises. One was launched last week by the American Action Network.

The latest piece, by the National Republican Congressional Committee, cites Garcia decrying "Scandals. Corruption. Partisan infighting."

"I say enough is enough," Garcia says.

Then comes the voice-over: "Joe Garcia's only added to the lies and scandals."

That refers to a state investigation that led Garcia's former chief of staff to plead guilty to attempted absentee-ballot manipulation, and to an ongoing federal investigation into Garcia's 2010 campaign over a suspected straw candidate.

"Corrupt Congressman Joe Garcia ran on a promise that he would end corruption in South Florida," NRCC spokeswoman Katie Prill said in a statement. "Seems laughable now knowing Garcia has two criminal investigations into his 2010 and 2012 campaigns."

The ad also refers to Garcia's "misleading ads" rated False by PolitiFact Florida. Unmentioned is that the fact-checkers have made the same ruling against Curbelo.


Charlie Crist uses Rick Scott's job-creation flip flop, false denial in new attack ad


There are two major ways to attack a foe: at his weak point and at his strength.

Charlie Crist has chosen the latter route in his new attack ad targeting Gov. Rick Scott over his flip-flopping on his job-creation promise. PolitiFact rated the reversal a "full flop." Scott would have been looking at a "Pants on Fire" rating had PolitFact examined his clearly false denial that he ever said the new jobs created would be on top of forecast employment gains.

Scott's campaign is sure to shoot back with its standard campaign line about the rampant job loss under Crist. So not only is Crist attack Scott at his strength (jobs), he's doing it from a pretty weak position. But then, Scott's former hospital company was engaged in historic fraud and he attacks Crist as a fraud. 

One note: the ad features the voice of an unknown "reporter" -- that's Michael C. Bender, former Tampa Bay Times reporter from the combined state capital bureau with the Miami Herald. Mike broke the story in 2011....