HEAT: In defense of Coach Spoelstra

The Post was not to claim I agree with the Heat's methodology. It's to show what the rationale may be.

Thanks for reading.

JS

Erik Spoelstra has been beat up by some fans about how Michael Beasley has been handled.

So, I decided to do a little research and this is what I came up with.

The table below shows you the success rates of the 5 man units the Heat have. The top 2 units w/ the best WIN % both have Haslem on the floor instead of Beasley. The top unit Michael shows up on is the 3rd best unit.

In spite of that Erik still plays Beasley the 2nd most minutes in the game behind Wade.

Top Five-Man Floor Units

#	Unit	Min	Off	Def	+/-	W	L	Win%
1	Alston-Wade-Richardson-Beasley-O'Neal	215.6	1.01	1.06	-24	6	11	35.2
2	Chalmers-Wade-Richardson-Beasley-O'Neal	212.2	1.11	1.05	+20	8	11	42.1
3	Arroyo-Wade-Richardson-Beasley-O'Neal	117.5	1.15	0.91	+50	6	5	54.5
4	Chalmers-Wade-Richardson-Haslem-O'Neal	111.6	1.15	1.14	+8	6	9	40.0
5	Chalmers-Wright-Beasley-Haslem-Anthony	95.4	0.86	1.07	-38	5	12	29.4
6	Alston-Wade-Richardson-Haslem-O'Neal	94.5	1.12	0.94	+33	10	5	66.6
7	Chalmers-Wade-Jones-Beasley-O'Neal	94.0	1.12	1.04	+15	5	0	100
8	Chalmers-Wade-Richardson-Haslem-Anthony	56.6	1.06	0.93	+4	9	7	56.2
9	Arroyo-Wade-Richardson-Haslem-O'Neal	46.1	1.05	1.06	+2	4	6	40.0
10	Arroyo-Wright-Beasley-Haslem-Anthony	43.5	0.80	0.97	-16	2	7	22.2

Below there's a chart which dictates how effective guys are on the floor. Beasley is by far a more superior talent than Haslem, but he has a worse NET production than Haslem in more minutes and OVERALL RATING (which is a current effectiveness evaluator) the difference is marginal.

This also shows that Erik is truly working with a sub par group overall.

It also could lend that Charles Barkley's assessment of the HEAT (Wade and a bunch of TITO JACKSON'S) may be accurate.

Production			On Court/Off Court			Simple
Player	Min	Own	Opp	Net	On	Off	Net	Rating
Wade	76%	30.5	11.8	+18.7	+4.4	-10.2	+14.6	+17.0
O'Neal	54%	20.2	21.4	-1.1	+5.4	-4.4	+9.8	+3.2
Jones	13%	10.7	10.7	+0.0	+3.4	+0.5	+3.0	+1.2
Richardson	50%	12.3	16.8	-4.4	+3.4	-1.8	+5.2	-0.6
Wright	36%	16.0	16.0	-0.0	-1.2	+2.0	-3.2	-1.3
Beasley	62%	19.0	17.4	+1.6	-1.4	+4.5	-6.0	-1.4
Cook	19%	8.8	12.1	-3.3	+0.6	+0.9	-0.3	-2.1
Arroyo	28%	14.6	15.2	-0.6	-3.6	+2.6	-6.2	-2.8
Chalmers	45%	13.7	17.0	-3.2	-0.6	+2.0	-2.7	-3.0
Magloire	8%	11.8	15.2	-3.4	-1.7	+1.1	-2.8	-3.1
Alston	22%	8.8	16.2	-7.4	+3.1	+0.2	+2.9	-3.3
Haslem	55%	15.8	19.1	-3.3	-1.3	+3.5	-4.7	-3.9
Anthony	31%	11.5	17.7	-6.2	-4.9	+3.4	-8.3	-7.1
Randolph	1%	-3.5	18.4	-21.9	+10.2	+0.8	+9.5	-9.4
Diawara	1%	-4.9	8.8	-13.8	-5.5	+0.9	-6.4	-10.8

Comments

[phil]

what the hell is that about. it comes down to who we are playing against. these numbers above does not mean a thing. That was lame.

[phil]

I believe that his rotations sucks. I believe that we need to sit Joel for ever. possibly play Magloir instead. he is better offensively, and defensively. the only difference is that joel gets more blocks, but magloir is a better rebounder, and offensive skilled player, and does not get pushed around by mediocer centers like joel does. His just under sized and has NO offense at all.

[justin]

Who cares about these charts? This is not a championship team. Playing Beasley now is not about winning this year. It's about getting Beasley ready for the future when the Heat bring in free agents this summer to make a run at the title. Beasley needs the experience at the end of games now that are not that meaningful so when he is playing in meaningful playoff games in the future he is ready. And if the Heat determine they are better off trading Beasley this summer for a point guard or center (assuming they bring in Bosh, Amare, or Booz) at least his trade value will be higher with more minutes on the court now.

[Sedano]

As much as I might agree with your theory justin it's not about now to this franchise. They want to get back to the post season and keep their superstar happy. You or I may not agree with that, but that is part of the deal.

[Steve]

Bucher sux

[andy]

Beasley has the most upside potential and is young. Play him so he gains experience and gets better. You want 5 more wins and a slightly better playoff seed? Or do you want a better future team that can go somewhere in the playoofs. The Heat is starting to play gooid defense and that spells a tougher playoff team then regular season team.

[Charlie]

This is by far the worst blog post in the history of the herald. The Heat don't play Beasley in the last 3 minutes but they play Haslem, the guy they've tried to trade for 2 seasons. Unacceptable Riley, you are telling the fans you effed up another 1st round pick.