Doug's Odds

Who will be Season Three's Top Chef? Here's how I see it.

Hung (2 to 1): For the first half of the show, I'd say even odds between him and Tre winning. Then Tre gets bumped -- shocker. How can Hung lose? Why watch? Then, suddenly, Casey starts coming on strong, winning quickfires, eliminations, I-Macs! Judging from momentum alone, you'd still have to give her the edge.

But did you notice in the last episode how Casey described her cooking style as pan-Asian? And how she brought all of those Asian noodles? Do we think she can beat Hung in an Asian-off?

Actually, the answer is: who knows. But certainly, growing up with Vietnamese parents, working in a Vietnamese restaurant, Hung knows how to cook Asian. My hunch is his will be better than hers.

Casey (3 to 1): Such a close call. This is why I don't think has the edge right now: The judges love her. She keeps handing in strong performances. They already think she cooks with "heart" or "soul" or whatever self-important term they use to describe dishes that aren't overloaded with elements or scream "classically-trained."

Those last too knocks sort of define Hung's cooking so far. This gives him an advantage in the finale. He can come in there, bare his soul with some Vietnamese dishes, reveal this earthy, warm side to his cooking and them -- BAM! -- he's really "shown us something" while Casey "played it safe."

Well, no, she's just done what she's been doing the other time. But I think she peaked two episodes ago. Hung probably has some altitude left in his Top Chef climb.

Dale (6 to 1): Before I say why I don't think Dale will win, let me say this: I think he's done himself the most favors by being on this show.

He's in the top three, so he's a legit chef. He's come across as a nice, fun chef with a point of view. He's got personality.  He probably won't have the burden and slightly tacky taint of the title "Bravo TV's Top Chef." But since he's not a favorite for the finale, so a loss won't seem like much of a defeat.

Anyway, even though Dale came on strong in the previous episode (I missed a golden opportunity there to use the word "penultimate")  I don't think he can keep it together enough to prepare the full menu of dishes required for the finale.

Then again... with both Casey and Hung cooking Asian, that will means Dale's dishes will stand-out from the start. Should the Asian taste not live up to expectations -- and wouldn't the judges LOVE to tell Hung he doesn't know how to cook Asian -- Dale will be looking extremely good.

OK, well that's it until the finale. If these predictions prove embarrassingly wrong, don't be surprised if they magically vanish in a horrible Typepad.com blog meltdown.