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Who owns the edge? Gators vs. Hurricanes

The Gators are three-point favorites heading into Saturday's showdown with the Hurricanes. It's going to be a crazy and emotional atmosphere for the fans, who know this is probably the last time the teams will meet in the regular season.

So who owns the edge coming into the game? I'll break it down for you.

WHEN THE HURRICANES RUN THE BALL
> As dazzling and explosive as sophomore Duke Johnson has been since he arrived (he put up a career-high 186 yards last week against FAU), he's yet to have to shoulder a load bigger than 19 carries in a game and he has yet to deliver against top-end opponents. Last year against Miami's three ranked opponents (Notre Dame, Kansas State and Florida State) Johnson combined for 68 yards on 23 attempts (2.96 per carry) without a touchdown. Johnson said he trained all off-season, got bigger and stronger for a game like Saturday's. Florida returns only three starters from last season's top five scoring and run defense, but still has 15 players back from its two-deep at the end of the 2012 season. The Gators, whose longest run allowed all of 2012 was 25 yards, held Toledo to only 50 yards total on the ground in the opener. Florida held seven teams under 100 yards rushing last season and are 17-2 under coach Will Muschamp when they out gain their opponents on the ground, but 2-6 when they lose the rushing battle. This is a huge test for Johnson and Miami's formidable offensive line. Edge: Even.

WHEN THE HURRICANES PASS THE BALL
> As hot as Canes quarterback Stephen Morris finished last season, he really didn't put up great performances against Miami's toughest foes, throwing for only 639 combined yards, one touchdown and one interception against UM's ranked opponents in 2012. He was also sacked nine times combined in those three games compared to seven the rest of the season. Florida's pass defense ranked second nationally in efficiency in 2012, allowing a mere 5.63 yards per passing attempt (fourth best). Creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks is a big key to Florida's defensive success. They racked up 30 sacks last year and forced 13 fumbles. They also picked off 20 passes (7th nationally). Junior cornerback Marcus Roberson (St. Thomas Aquinas) finished third in the SEC with 14 pass breakups a year ago. He'll be blanketing Miami's 2012 leading receiver Phillip Dorsett, his former high school teammate at St. Thomas Aquinas, a lot in one-on-one coverage. Whoever wins the battle probably leads their team to victory. Edge: Even.

WHEN THE GATORS RUN THE BALL
> Florida improved to 13-0 under Muschamp last week when rushing for 150 yards or more. When the Gators don't run for 150 yards, they are 6-8 under Muschamp. Key to the game, anyone? Good starts (Gators are 4-7 when they are tied or trail at the half under Muschamp) and time of possession are also important for Florida's success. Playmaking sophomore tailback Matt Jones (6-2, 226) returns from a viral infection this week to start, but his backups did a fine job against Toledo last week as Mack Brown (5-11, 215), Valdez Showers (5-11, 190), Mark Herndon (5-9, 198) and freshman Kelvin Taylor (5-10, 214) combined for 218 of Florida's 262 rushing yards. Although UF's offensive line returns 89 career starts, right guard Jon Halapio (6-3, 320, 33 career starts) won't play against the Hurricanes as he is still recovering from injury. That's good news considering UM had one of the worst run defenses in the country last year (217.92 yards per game). The Canes are supposed to be bigger, stronger, deeper and better up front. They held FAU to only 3.1 yards a carry last week. But this is the real measuring stick game to see if this defense is physically ready for a heavyweight fight. Edge: Gators

WHEN THE GATORS PASS THE BALL
> Florida ranked 114th in passing last season, producing a mere 27 pass plays of 20 yards or more. Quarterback Jeff Driskel, UF's second leading rusher in 2012, completed a career-high 77.3 percent of his passes in the opening win over Toledo. But he only threw for 153 yards. That's efficient, not dangerous. That means the Hurricanes, led by Denzel Perryman, Anthony Chickillo and Jimmy Gaines can zero in on stopping the run and the short passing game. UM's five sacks last week were also an encouraging sign, though defensive coordinator Mark D'Onofro said only one of those sacks came as the result of a pressure from fewer than five pass rushers. He would like to be able to do it with four man fronts so he doesn't put extra strain on his secondary. Edge: Hurricanes.

SPECIAL TEAMS
> Florida punter Kyle Chirsty, a finalist for the Ray Guy Award in 2012, averaged 45.8 yards a kick last season. Redshirt freshman Austin Hardin went 1-for-2 on field goal attempts in his debut last week against Toledo (he missed from 39 yards) as he attempts to replace Caleb Sturgis, the Dolphins new kicker. Roberson had four punt returns for 72 yards against Toledo, tied for the eighth best average in the nation. Florida has blocked 12 kicks during Muschamp's 27-game tenure as coach, including four field goals last year. Duke Johnson, one of the nation's premier kick and punt returners last season, didn't handle any special teams work in the opener against FAU. Will he this week? We'll see. Dorsett, Dallas Crawford and Stacy Coley handled all returns vs. FAU. UM probably has the advantage in the kicking game. Punter Pat O'Donnell, a transfer from Cincinnati, has a strong track record (44.8 average vs. FAU) and new kicker Matt Goudis drilled both of his field goal attempts last week. Edge: Even.

COACHING
> UM coach Al Golden and his counterpart Muschamp took over two entirely different programs at the same time in Dec. 2010. Golden has had to deal with an NCAA investigation and rebuilding a program that was on a downward trend; Muschamp inherited an 8-4 program that simply needed a little retooling and still had momentum from 2006 and 2008 national championships. That being said, Florida has the track record it shows up more often in big games and in crunch time. The Gators beat seven bowl-eligible teams against the nation’s toughest schedule according to NCAA in 2012 and was 7-2 against bowl teams last season. UM went 0-3 in games against ranked opponents a year ago and 4-3 overall against schools who were bowl-eligible (not including a loss to North Carolina). When it comes to the fourth quarter, the Gators have the better track record. UM was outscored 113-102 in the fourth quarter last year. The Gators won the fourth quarter 128-32 in 2012. If the Canes win Saturday, they need to hold up four fingers and then prove they mean it. Edge: Florida.

Comments

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A fair review by Manny, with a lot of last year's information. Reasonable given virtually no meaningful 2013 data. Tomorrow we'll see how the 2013 versions stack up. Wish it wasn't a noon game.

Primo - I was thinking 35-24 Canes but after reading this I am starting to second guess my pick. I win, lose or draw with my Canes but even if/when we lose we can still win the ACC. Don't forget we are having a sales/celebration in Coral Gables at the AllCanes store where I am heading up security.

Go Canes - See ya'll tomorrow in West 12!!!

Sorry for the repost: The Gators remind me alot of what Notre Dame was last year. A team with a stout defense but little offense. The "U" played 3 games last year versus top quality defenses. K State, FL State and N. Dame. In those games Morris was under constant pressure, our offense looked terrible and our defense was, well we know BAD. So based on what I saw last year and what I saw from both the "U" and Gators this year and as much as it pains me to say it, I see the stinking Gators pulling this one out 23-17. I believe that this game will play out alot like the Notre Dame game last year but with a closer score. I hope to all the football gods that I am wrong. I will eat crow with every meal if the "U" can get the "W". Go Canes.

accurate data...I'm looking at the same data.....

as I have said all along....duke johnson has not proven himself yet...all his yards are against sh...t teams....

EVERY time he has face a good team he has failed:

ksu 6 for 19 yards
ncs 12 for 39 yards
nd 8 for 22 yards
nc 14 for 47 yards
fsu 9 for 27 yards

really pathetic performance....this team has to stop all the BS and show it is back.....

as Manny pointed out the uf backfield is better in totality.....this is where UF wins....UM will lose

dnofrio will not out coach muschamp....

Excellent synopsis from Manuel. hUh

And as I bloody well BLOVIATED the past week. The likely winner, of Saturday's game, should be the team with the... BETTER head coach and offensive/defensive coordinators. Eh. What say.

By the way, don't give this HOME FIELD advantage because at least 35 PERCENT of the mob should be Gator fandom.

Gallo off and lying as usual.

Manny's comparisons were UM O vs UD D and vice versa, He made no comparison of Duke and the UF band of mediocre backs. Given you can only play 11 at a time, most sane people would prefer quality over quantity, unless there is an injury.

Posted by: Mountain Cane | September 06, 2013 at 12:34 PM

##############

This Canespace AGENT PROVACATEUR is bloody well MISSING the entire point!! Albeit he INTENTIONALLY denies the point!

And the observational point is, THE DUKE has had very terrible games against RANKED teams with STOUT DEFENSES and what not.

That's not an opinion from some Cane good ol' boy with a bloody axe to grind and what not. It's a F-A-C-T based on previous game stat's.

Nevertheless, I absolutely believe THE DUKE will have a good game on Saturday. hUh Especially if Stevie doesn't CHIT his pants. dUh

BLOWOUT

Posted by: Gator Pride | September 06, 2013 at 12:43 PM

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

At least the Sin City bookmakers don't see it YOUR way and what not.

Because I-F this were going to be a " blowout " sort of game.

Then, the GAYtors would be a STRONGER road favorite than the - 3 points. hUh

Mandingo, you layout how futile duke was against stout defenses. Then you explained how incredibly stout UF's defense is. You finish by calling that matchup "even."

Nice job Homer. Duke is NOT an every down back. This will be painfully evident Saturday.

Gators Should Win A Close One Here

What bloody well FRIGHTENS this DECADES-long, loyal Miami Hurricane fan is not the fact, that D'Onofrio will be sitting on his fat arse in the booth, high above the synthetic turf on Saturday.

What bloody SCARES me the most is the fact that those distinguished, UNBIAS, ETHICAL S.E.C. officials will be in SLS on Saturday. And that should concern y'all Cane good ol' boy's too.

Get outta' here with that conspiracy crap, Weirdo!!

Muschamp is a Lou Saban disciple. He's building a 'Bama clone. The QB is not counted on to win games but, instead, not to lose them. You win with great defense and a punishing ground attack. This game will be close until midway through the 3rd quarter. The Gators win by two touchdowns.

@D

It's called a Vegas sucker bet. Canes always have heavier action than UF and Vegas KNOWS it.

BLOWOUT!

As usual, D incapable of following a logical path, Good at hitting the caps button is his only strong suit.

The comment was about Gallo's lie based on Manny's story. Had absolutely nothing to do with your self-professed "observational point", whatever in the world that is.


Nice job Homer. Duke is NOT an every down back. This will be painfully evident Saturday.

Posted by: Old Skool | September 06, 2013 at 12:48 PM

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Point well taken, bUbba!

I've mentioned previously, with succinct clarity, that what would hurt Miami is the notion of having NO " down-hill type of bruising " RB against the MIGHTY Gators. hUh

Nevertheless, I still believe THE DUKE will have a very good game on Saturday.


SHHHHHHHHHH GAYTURDS!!!!!!!


Canes always have heavier action than UF and Vegas KNOWS it.

BLOWOUT!

Posted by: Gator Pride | September 06, 2013 at 12:54 PM

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

Miami ONCE was a team which got HEAVY BETTING ACTION. But that NO LONGER rings true, bUbba!!

Again, if the Sin City Wise Guys BELIEVED the game was going to be a bloody ROUT in the GAYtors favor.

The OPENING LINE would have been at least 3 points higher than the initial - 2 points.

And furthermore, the Florida vs. Miami line WOULD NOT be sitting at the current - 3 points.

Matter of fact, in a BLOWOUT scenario the Gators would probably be a road chalk of... - 8/12 or - 9.

Manny is way off here. miami has better o line. Miami has better qb. Miami has better rb, thats not even close. Miami has wwwwaaaay better wrs lol. Dont even get me started on special teams, even my ass lol. And duke johnson returns kicks not punts. He did have one it was 8 yds deep and neeled it. Manny, your delusional and cannot see the hurricane coming, but i can. So sit back and then get ready to get on the cane band wagon.

Im also a Hurricanes fan but sorry to say see the Gators pulling this won out 24 to 17, Gators will pound the rock and lets be real Porter and that other fat DT couldnt get off there blocks against the FAU gurads how will they against Florida OL's? The reality is until we find some stud DL's the U will never be back. Chicklo is horrible, Im not sure what anyone sees in this guy.

I bloody well GUARANTEE y'all Cane and Gator Good Ol' Boy's that there will be NO " blowout " victory on Saturday.

And perhaps y'all Miami and Florida bUbba's may be wondering W-H-Y.

Well, because the Hurricane players have TO MUCH AT STAKE, and these Miami players DON'T want to experience the similar feelings they collectively felt after last season's MELTDOWNS against the Celts and K.ST. hUh

The PERCENTAGES are VERY high that Miami will lose on Saturday for all the obvious reasons.

However, MIGHTY Florida will NOT WIN by double-digits. That is an absolute y'all Cane Good Ol' Boys can bank on!!!


Chicklo is horrible, Im not sure what anyone sees in this guy.

Posted by: Truth | September 06, 2013 at 01:07 PM

************

Yes, I do believe ALL that WEIGHT Chick gained this past year has altered his balling. Albeit it was only the first game with all that ADDED body weight.

But then again, perhaps you are correct about No.72 and maybe he will be ANOTHER 4-Star bust and what not. hUh

If you are using last years stats why play the game? The Canes and Gators are new this year. A lot of new talent and improved players. Each team was lacking last year, and took strides to close the gaps. You have no way of knowing which way the ball bounces, officials bad calls, or weather effecting the day with cramps. Don't get worked up about someone's opinion. Is anyone really expecting the same as last year from these teams? I think it would be a major dissapointment if each did not show major improvement. If so a lot of energy and money was wasted to this point in each of these programs.

UM needs to have a strong defensive game and play 4qtr with intensity.

I feel the D can bring that based on the eyeball test vs FAU.

I am concerned about UM being able to run consistently on UF...Duke had some big runs against FAU...so that is a skew of the average some...

This game is going to fall on the back of Morris and the WR's...they are going to have to be the game changer here and not with home run balls, but over them middle...Toledo missed wide open opps vs the UF D.

If UM can do that they have a really good chance win.

The one thing that concerns me is...If this game is TOO BIG or UM right now...if it is...it might be a long day...if not...it could be the Game that turns he CCorner...

IMHO!

Go Canes! (Win or Lose)

Bleeding Orange, Green & White!

Manuel laid down the MONSTER Orange nd' Green TRUMP CARD above regarding the keys to the game.

Because in this particular game it's " All About Coaching. " Eh. What say.

And the Canes still have D'Onofrio in the press box. hUh

But then again, I'm probably all wrong about D'Onofrio and Goldie too!

No way Gators will stop both Duke running and Morris passing.

Posted by: TK SWANN | September 06, 2013 at 01:19 AM

.

"As dazzling and explosive as sophomore Duke Johnson has been since he arrived (he put up a career-high 186 yards last week against FAU), he's yet to have to shoulder a load bigger than 19 carries in a game and he has yet to deliver against top-end opponents. Last year against Miami's three ranked opponents (Notre Dame, Kansas State and Florida State) Johnson combined for 68 yards on 23 attempts (2.96 per carry) without a touchdown."

"As hot as Canes quarterback Stephen Morris finished last season, he really didn't put up great performances against Miami's toughest foes, throwing for only 639 combined yards, one touchdown and one interception against UM's ranked opponents in 2012. He was also sacked nine times combined in those three games compared to seven the rest of the season."

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What ? []_[] mean like how K. State-UNC-FSU-Notre Dame couldn't STONE COLD shut down both #8 n #17 last year ? "No way" the GATORS Key on #8 Dookie forcing #17 Bobblehead into 3rd. n Long series after series riiieet ?

Typical Cane mentality that never learns from recent past history...

"NO WAY" []_[] will ever digest and understand the FACTS ...

.

HOLA ARTURO MANG !!! Less than 24 Hours Brother !

HOLLA !

We Miami fandom know would absolute certainty, that both Art and Barrows can handle the CHALLENGE of a " big game " scenario and what not.

The question is... can both y'all's BELOVED Goldie and D'Onofrio meet the challenge of coaching in the BIGGEST GAME of their young careers. Eh. What say, Weirdo!

Find out on High Noon Saturday.

And []_[]r sieve of an 'efense that gave up OVER 500 Yards in 9 of []_[]r 12 games last year is bigger, stronger, no longer young and magically will become a Top-Defense riiieet ?


.


.


.


.

psssst ... []_[] need to wake up.

i expect florida to come out head-hunting. they know if duke/morris not on field, they win. if they dont connect on the big hits UM has a chance.

D, Chicklo just doesnt jump off to me as an explosive 4 star athlete. Matter of fact Im sure he was just a 3 star athlethe coming out of high school. He has limited Pass Rushing moves and rarely gets to the QB. Like I said the U will not be back until that D line becomes a beast again. We need a big daddy like Vince W or Sapp. Porter amd other guy, forgot his name couldnt hold the latter jock straps.

Manny after all your analysis you should state that this team is NOWHERE the same as last year...so your synopsis is null and void.

Past performance this year, (2013) I give you that, but comparing a bunch of players who did NOT know the playbook...
Games that came down to the last 2 minutes should count, and if we had a 9-3 won record, would your tome be different and give the 'U' more of a bounce.

Manny you could surely come up with a better piece than comparing with players who are pounds heavier, know the gameplan, work the process, and mentally are ready to step up in 2013 over 2012. We as fans know this .
What rating would you give that?
Your piece is one more bit of ammunition that the 'Canes can use to motivate and prove their point.
Maybe you are using reverse psychology here, but get real.
Go 'Canes

Home field..advantage Miami.

This years game vs Florida is going to be very similar to the 2011 game vs Ohio State. Mia is going to win the game by at least 2 TD's but at the end of the season the Gators are going to have 4 or 5 losses and everyone will then realize that they weren't very good.

And of course, []_[]'ll have ZERO penalties, blown assignments, fumbles, interceptions while []_[]r endless depth will keep all phases of []_[]r game fresh as daisies. While the GATORS will have over 100 yards in yellow laundry, multiple blown assignments, 2 picks, 3 fumbles and will wilt due to their complete lack of any quality depth whatsoever ..... Riiieet ?

.

aaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh CandyCaneLand > OZ ...

WHEN THE HURRICANES RUN THE BALL ?

WHEN THE HURRICANES PASS THE BALL ?

EVEN ?

Rrrrrreeeeeeaaaallllly ? Only a Cane Homer can read those facts and come up with "even"... Silly, Silly Cane Clucks n Writer.

Should be a close game. If so, turnovers tend to determine the outcome. Driskell reminds me of the Noles Chris Rix (only 5 time loser to the canes), in his uncanny ability to look befuddled with the tiniest amount of pressure. He really is both a slow and unsavvy decision maker.

SOLDY, this is still the funniest line you've ever come up with:

"Lmao Harriet Tubman Cane. The genesis of it all is a guy who goes by canesrule or Montreal Cane or 9.5.2. Would personally attack my Gator comments on Gator blogs. That's when I instituted The Curse of Art Kehoe. Ive been telling cane fan that the program is garbage for about five or six years now."

So a cane fan got in your head 6 YEARS AGO and you are just stuck in the same rut, doing the same thing, obsessing over the same canes blog for the next 6 YEARS. LMAO. talk about being owned..


Im also a Hurricanes fan but sorry to say see the Gators pulling this won out 24 to 17, Gators will pound the rock and lets be real Porter and that other fat DT couldnt get off there blocks against the FAU gurads how will they against Florida OL's? The reality is until we find some stud DL's the U will never be back. Chicklo is horrible, Im not sure what anyone sees in this guy.

Posted by: Truth | September 06, 2013 at 01:07 PM

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Fear Not Ye Cane of Truth Telling ... HELP Is On The WAY !!!

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335-pound Texas Cheerleader being looked at by Miami Hurricanes Recruiters

A 335-pound cheerleader is on the Miami Hurricanes’ football recruiting radar.

Yes, Armand Fernandez-Pierre is a male cheerleader at Episcopal School of Dallas. But he’s also an impressive nose tackle that the Miami Hurricanes are recruiting to play Football.

.

U, Goldy and Duh U have officially "Jumped the Shark."


SOLDY - I realize you are joking, but for those who aren't aware it is actually a nice story. He plays offensive line and broke his neck and severed his spinal cord during football practice in 8th grade. He then decided to become a cheerleader. Now he has been cleared to play and has continued to do both. North Carolina, UCLA, and several other schools are also reportedly interested in him in addition to Miami. For those who haven't seen video of him, he appears to be very athletic for someone of his size.

Truth, your "pulling won out" phrase shows that you are a dumb gator. Sorry for being redundant.

Imagine how this makes the higschool kids that are getting handled by cheerleader feel. Nimble, agile and Strong kid might stop and do a cheer after a sack. Besides he's looking under skirts what are u looking at. The U

Manny,

If you want to rely on last years Gator stats then the most recent example would be the Louisville game. Plug that into your screwball stats and get back to us.

Miami is bigger, faster, stronger and more athletic by a wide margin than the Miami teams over the last 4 or 5 years.

The difference in this year's Miami team versus the Miami squad who played Florida in 2008 is this team is monstrously better. Conversely, this years Florida team is nowhere near the 2008 team.

The coaching comparison would have 'real' football experts howling with laughter knowing what Al Golden has faced versus what Will Muschamp was handed. If one is being honest and has a spec of knowledge about football they would be saying that Al Golden has done a fantastic coaching job for the ages.

I see 2 scenarios here...we (Canes) get a close one here...or we have not made progression and get run out in our own house.
Fact is Gators were and probably are better than we are at this point...
but individually we got a much better QB/RB combination...it is a team game....do not want the 2 of them to carry us tomorrow; but it may be the likely case.
I bleed green and orange, but I am much wiser and older than I used to be...LOVE MY CANES...but we got a very tough battle tomorrow.

Make us proud!!
God Bless!

Mr. Navarro's analysis is usually spot on, however, this one is incomplete in several respects.

When Miami runs the ball. Advantage is Gators. The Florida defense is built on stop the run first because they live in a league that requires it. They will stack the box and dare the Canes to throw.

When Miami throws the ball. Advantage is Hurricanes. Miami is built on a true pro style offense. The equivalent to running the ball is getting your guy in space with the short pass. Miami will spread the field more than against FAU and challenge the Gators to adjust. In addition Miami will use their tight ends to a large degree. If the Canes can give Morris decent time they will be successful.

Special teams. Advantage is Canes. Florida lost their best returner for the season. Miami is dangerous on every kick they touch. Miami's punter and kicker areas good or better.

Intangibles. How can you not mention this in a game of this magnitude and importance? Advantage is Hurricanes. Have you noticed the lack of any talking from Coral Gables? Still waters run deep.

Great post JD!

Miami is built on a true pro style offense.

Huh???? Was "built?"

That's why your running attack consists of a third down scat back. What does he weigh???

U don't even know what you're looking at.

P.s. Florida has elite cornerbacks. Can't wait to see blinky Morris start tossing it

All corners can beaten. Exhibit A would be those very same UF "elite"CBs vs Louisville. Oops, Louisville just scored again.

Those "elite" Gator cornerbacks couldn't cover Toledo's receivers last week and got the win simply because the Toledo QB was about as accurate as your many lie filled posts...Riiieeet!

Mark May and Lou Holtz just picked the Canes to beat the Gators. Yes! You read that correctly...Mark May picked the Canes!

Holtz said he really likes what Coach Golden has done for the Canes...a very astute and honest observation.

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