Former four-time NFL Executive of the Year Bill Polian got on a conference with the media this week and the ESPN analyst gave his opinion about varying issues regarding free agency and the draft.
One point he made is that when he was with the Colts, the team studied the success rate of free agency and came away with the idea that 50 percent of free agents are successes and, obviously, 50 percent do not succeed with their new teams.
Polian has no idea which player will fall into what specific category but he judging by what he said about receiver Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings, one gets the feeling he likes the Pittsburgh player over the Green Bay veteran.
"The question of Wallace is that he is the guy who meets all of the parameters that you'd like," Polian said. "He is productive. He has great speed, which is always something that is desirable in a receiver. He falls within the reasonable age parameters and he hasn't had a high history of injury.
"When you look at all of the things that you use to try to decide whether or not you want to pursue a player, he checks every box with few question marks. There was some issue as to how effective his hands were this year. I don't think it was a major issue, so there you have it. We'll see where the market goes. He's not 6'2" and 220 pounds, so that may be a consideration for some teams.
"But, in terms of the red flags that would cause you to turn away, he doesn't have many. He's a guy that most people will feel is pretty desirable but, again only the market will tell. This is in many ways like an IPO. There is a lot of discussion, there is a lot of analysis, but only the market will tell you whether it's going to go or not."
And Jennings? Is he worth the $10 million per season he is reportedly shooting for in free agency? And is he even a No. 1 receiver anymore?
"Well, worth is in the eye of the beholder," Polian said. "He's got two things that sort of mitigate against a huge contract: One is an injury history and the other is that he's 30 years of age and relief receivers, and I would categorize him as one, tend to begin to turn down at about 33 or 34.
"So, how long a contract do you give him, and what is his potential to continue to play at a high level, given the injury and age history? Each individual club has its own individual metrics that would tell them that, and so I think that that's where it's going to go. I'm as anxious as you are to see who may step up for him.
"But there are two concerns. There are clubs, we were one of them, that said if a guy's 27 years of age or above, we're probably not going to go for a long-term deal at big money. But if you feel you're one quality receiver away and the physical exam turns out to be okay, you might do it. Again, that is what makes free agency interesting."