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Gameday IV: Matchup.com; Futbol Sweep

So often, life’s about matchups and timing.

Mrs. Miniver gets Best Picture over The Magnificent Ambersons during World War II. Only early 1990s political correctness can explain Dances With Wolves getting that award instead of GoodFellas.

Muhammad Ali nemesis Ken Norton beats The Greatest once and loses two other questionable decisions. But a fading Ali barely survives Earnie Shavers in a 15-round decision win almost 18 months before Shavers blasts out Norton in 118 seconds.

 

Metallo nearly kills Superman. He wouldn’t last a page against Flash. A panel against Green Lantern.

Richard Nixon narrowly lost the first television age election to JFK. Could Jimmy Carter have won any Presidential election besides 1976?

I got on this riff thinking about Louisville and FIU.

This is the fourth game of Bobby Petrino’s second turn as Louisville coach. For whatever else can be said about Petrino, he’s a tremendous college-affiliated football coach. What he isn’t is the coach who constructed most of this roster, former coach Charlie Strong, now at Texas. Charlie Strong knew Florida and Florida players. Assistant coaches might still be translating Petrino for the many holdovers from Strong.  

Also, the book on Louisville says the Cardinals come at you with speed, Florida speed. They hit the flanks and fly. What does FIU have? Speed, Florida speed.

Louisville probably brings better athletes to those get-togethers on the corners. Still, that seems to play into what the FIU defense does well – get lateral, chase down plays going away from them. Expect the Panthers young linebackers to look fantastic one play, then fall for an okie doke on a reverse or a counter the next play. Where they’ll be tested most will be in pass coverage with the tight end off play action.

Pitt hit FIU between the tackles with the occasional quarterback keeper around the edge. There’s talk Louisville coach Bobby Petrino might want to use this week to work on Louisville’s inside running game. Remember Michael Dyer, freshman running back on Auburn’s 2010 national championship team? He’s trying to come off injury as a fifth-year senior at Louisville. He might be back Saturday.

At least FIU won’t have to worry about a mobile quarterback. Louisville’s Will Gardner, like predecessor Teddy Bridgewater, runs with great reluctance. Louisville’s offensive line is still trying to get its act together, so expect FIU’s pass rush to bring heat and humidity on passing downs.

“He’s not a run first guy,” Petrino said in his Thursday media session. He’s really more of a passer. Thinks of himself more as a passer. He needs to stand taller, stand his back leg under his hip so he is 6-4.”

Petrino said in practice this week, Gardner, “set his weight, snapped his wrist, worked on the timing, throwing the ball hard. You could certainly see he’s making a conscious effort to do the things we’re coaching him to do.”

FIU batted down some passes against Wagner’s 6-4 Brian Gehring and might play swat pong with a couple here. Expect Gardner’s mechanics to be off on a few throws, giving the Panthers some interceptions chances.

Gardner likely will go the whole way or until the clock strikes blowout. He usually swaps with freshman Reggie Bonnafon. Bonnafon will miss the game while attending his father’s funeral.

Also, FIU must make the Cardinals work for their scores, which means good punting and solid punt returns. Punter Chris Ayers needs a good game to hold onto his position.

Pitt’s touchdown drives were shorter than a dinner rush line at a Pollo Tropical drive-thru. The long drives tended to end in James Conner fumbles. It’s hot for the offense, too. People get tired. Mistakes get made.

With the ball, expect Louisville to send numbers at freshman quarterback Alex McGough out of its 3-4 defense. Until FIU starts running the ball consistently, what’s to stop teams from creating stampedes to the quarterback with the thought of just collecting the run along the way?

There’s going to be chances for the kind of boom plays that helped FIU get up 16-0 on Pitt. A missed tackle on sophomore tight end Jonnu Smith. Glenn Coleman, TJ Lowder or Dennis Turner outrunning man coverage downfield. Alex Gardner on a screen or draw.

(The only downside with starting a freshman running back: predictability. Picking up blitzes in pass protection usually doesn’t come naturally after a high school career in which they have the ball or the pass is designed to go to them. So, the freshman sometimes gets swapped out for a better blocking running back. Meanwhile, the entire opposing coaching staff starts whoopin’ and hollerin’ because they’ve got a solid hint that on an obvious passing down, the offense will pass.)

“Offensively, we had 10 big plays,” FIU coach Ron Turner said of the game against Pitt. “I don’t know that we had 10 big plays in any game last year. We might’ve gone six games without having 10 big plays.”

Probably – they had only 24 plays (21 run, three pass) 20 yards or longer all year.

I don’t think they’ll get 10 against Louisville. If they do, the score will be much closer than my prediction:

Louisville 38, FIU 10.

But that’s the opinion of one man raised by a single African-American lesbian (and I thank God for all of that). I could be wrong.

SOCCERS

Two goals by fifth-year senior Chelsea Leiva and the women's soccer team opened the night with a 2-0 win against Stetson, their third win in a row. They get a shot at a ranked team Sunday when No. 23 Long Beach State comes to the field.

The FIU men now have two wins against ranked opponents after senior Quentin Albrecht's bicycle kick goal gave FIU a 2-1 overtime win against No. 25 San Diego State. They beat then-No. 19 Michigan 1-0 in August.

 

 

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