Gameday IX: Beat a Hoot or Bowl is Moot II
UPCOMING HOME GAMES/MATCHES
Tennis -- Saturday and Sunday, FIU Invitational, all day
Men's Soccer -- Saturday vs. New Mexico, 7 p.m.
Volleyball -- Sunday vs. UTSA, 1 p.m.
Volleyball -- Friday vs. Western Kentucky, 1 p.m.
Swimming & Diving -- Friday vs. Illinois, 5 p.m.
The Conference USA women's soccer tournament isn't on the above schedule. Like softball in the spring, FIU women's soccer will sit in season-ending timeout while the rest of the conference plays in its sandbox. A 3-1 loss to Charlotte ended FIU's season at 8-11, 4-6 in conference play. In losing its last four games, FIU scored one goal.
FIU's postseason hopes also ride this weekend. Not saying FIU can't win at Marshall or Western Kentucky if they don't get to six wins by winning the next two games, but, well...putting aside how good Marshall's been since that inexplicable loss to Ohio, FIU gets Marshall in Huntington, West Virginia on the 45th anniversary of the 1970 plane crash that wiped out the football team. Now imagine playing after the pregame ceremony or series of them seeds the stadium with emotion. I flashed back to Panthers at Philadelphia for the NHL season opener a month after 9/11, when the Flyers first mixed Lauren Hart's live singing of "God Bless America" with old video of Kate Smith doing it at The Spectrum in the 1970s.
(Just seeing the practice run through hours before the game, I gaped and my breath caught. When Herald columnist Greg Cote arrived, I said, "They're not winning tonight." When he asked how I knew, I just shook my head and repeated, "They're not winning tonight." Later, after the Hart/Smith combination sent chills and tears rippling around a howling arena, I turned to Cote with, "Yeah, they've got a shot." Flyers won, 4-1.)
Anyway, Western hung in there with LSU for longer than anyone expected. They'll be tough to outscore in the season finale.
Back to this game, which has two statistical matchups that swing heavily in FIU's favor: FAU gets outscored 57-37 in the third quarter and 56-22 in the fourth quarter, 113-59 overall in the second half. This suggests the Owls youth and lack of physical maturity become a real problem in the game's late stages.
Also, FAU's one of the worst FBS teams in the red zone, getting points only 72.4 percent of the time (120th) and FIU is one of the best red zone defenses, giving up points on 63 percent of red zone trips (third). So, whether FAU's got Driskel the Younger, Jason, at quarterback or the not-quite-healthy Jaquez Johnson, they're unable to finish off drives.
Of course, you don't have to score in the red zone if you don't have to snap the ball there. The Panthers have shown a tendency to get gashed like shaving with a bad disposable razor the last two weeks. FAU freshman running back Trey Rodriguez has 219 yards on 28 carries, 7.8 a pop, in the three games since making his season debut against Rice. I think Rodriguez gets off another long one here, maybe in the second quarter.
If FIU's going to fuss around with the annoying bubble screen thumb twiddling early, do it to wide receiver Thomas Owens. Though only 50 miles from FIU Stadium and FAU's got a healthy number of 305/786 guys, this game's on Owens turf -- he's a Palm Beach County guy from Delray Beach Atlantic, the Owls' area of recruiting strength. He'll probably be a little jacked up and nothing harnesses that energy for positive use like some easy, early touches.
I see this game within four points one way or another into the third quarter. Then, FIU's Alex McGough hits on a couple of throws to tight end Jonnu Smith, maybe one to Akil Dan-Fodio, to start the Panthers on a long touchdown drive that saps the Owls energy. The Boca Boys respond with their own push inside the Panthers 20 only to see quarterback cool melt in the red zone heat. Hesitation leads to a turnover -- interception on a ball thrown too late, a fumble on a hit after the ball should've been gone. Not saying Richard Leonard makes a house call with it, but, soon after, FIU scores.
There's time left on the clock, but nobody needs to look to know what time it is -- time to go trick or treating. This business is done.
FIU 30, FAU 17.
But, that's just one black man's opinion. I could be wrong.